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What you gonna do when the bombs start to fall?
It's a near miracle that nuclear war has so far been avoided.
-Noam Chomsky
Let's imagine for a few minutes that the ongoing-global-currency war and proxy wars somehow, unexpectedly, blow up into a world war directly involving you, wherever it is that you live. Specifically, imagine that one side is able to achieve surprise, and as you sit at your desk, today, the power and all telecommunications go out without warning. Within 15 minutes, everyone notices a large amount of what is obviously military aircraft activity, evidenced by sonic booms, and soon there are several very bright flashes on the horizon in the direction of the closest military base.
The odds of this actually happening are not zero.
You may very well survive a nuclear war. Did you know that there have been over 500 above-ground detonations of nuclear weapons.
As an exercise, please consider the following questions:
How do you think most others around you would react?
Do you already have a plan that you would implement for this type of scenario?
What immediate action(s) would you take?
What are the three most likely perils you might face?
What is the thing you could do, now, to most improve your chance of surviving each of these three perils?
Here are my responses.
How do you think most others around you would react? I believe the amount of panic in any major American city, like mine, would be absolutely hellacious, literally, and streets would become impassable to cars almost immediately. Many people would either become catatonic with disbelief, die of a heart attack, or quickly progress from fear to the emotion that most know best, anger. People would resort to any and all measures to try to get out of the cities.
Do you already have a plan that you would implement for this type of scenario? Yes.
What immediate action(s) would you take? I would ride a motorcycle (very quickly) on train tracks, or other previously reconnoitered route, to one of several pre-planned rally points that have a bomb and fallout shelter.
What are the three most likely perils you might face? 1) Nuclear weapon blast or fallout 2) Lack of drinking water 3) Starvation
What is the thing you could do, now, to most improve your chance of surviving each of these three perils? 1) Remember the excellent information in this goofy dude's videos. 2) Have water stored at shelter 3) Have food stored at shelter.
Do you even know where to find a fallout shelter? How quickly can you get to one? Will you be able to get in?
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
»
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At the end of the day, the good guys and the bad guys will still be with us. The good news is that at least for a while, your would be oppressor will be in range.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jericho_(2006_TV_series)
Poastertoaster -
I admire your thoughtful post but do not share your optimism. I am more on the "Shitstorm-a-comin.'" wagon train of thought. Good luck!
Probably 95% would die fairly quickly as they are dependent on the industrialised food supply chain and freash water. They woud also be trapped in cities.
Depends on your definition of quickly.
Lets say only 20-30 warheads actually hit to the USA...naww...lets drop that to 10.
The first one to go off will be a high altitude EMP burst, and to be honest, that's all you really need.
Every computer (routers are computers after all) in the nation will be fucked. Every gas pump, water pump, car, motorcycle, shaver, trasnformer, utility meter, modern tractor, modern combine harvester, train locomotive, truck, etc.....has a CPU inside...all dead.
If you're in an aircraft when this sucker goes off, the emd will be quick for you. Modern airliners cannot fly without their computers operating, you can't move the flaps or lower landing gear.....you will coast into the ground.
Now the fun begins....even Congress's report on this stated a 90% die off within 12 months.
Fresh water stops,
sewerage stops,
Transport stops,
food stops,
medicine stops,
communications stop.
You have a pre 1980 vehicle on hand with some stashed gas or you DON'T move.
You have some stores or you don't eat.
You have some livestock and somewhere for a garden or in ~3 months, you don't eat.
You need to have a rifle with plenty of rounds and know how to dress a deere, or you don't eat.
So, just go through the list, how many people in your own circle of friends have any of the above or know how to do any of the above?
In my circle....none.
Anyone on insuline, heart medication, etc....dead.
Most people in old folks homes will be dead in 3 weeks.....with no one around to dispose of the corpses.
Antibiotics will run out in 3 months...people will start dying of minor infections again.
It will be a messy year, to be sure.
Squid
There are people around who individually do not have all this but collectively might. Lone wolf sort of survivors might not fair as well as small groups who can pull together - particularly from a defensive standpoint. The problem is that most people can't be talked to about this. It will have to occur on the fly after the S hits the F.
There are some thoughtful people in Government who are concerned. Please consider reading this July 2015 report GAO did on DHS' EMP efforts: http://www.gao.gov/assets/680/671554.pdf
Nice to know they're on the job. If a solar storm or major war knocks out the electric grid, they'll be putting together a report.
Just as soon as they can. They'll just load up the template in the word processor software, and, and, and... ?
The Oregon trail settlers decimated the deer/elk populations and nearly drove one species to extinction. A few months after an EMP event I think you'd be lucky to find a deer east of the Mississippi.
Squid, Spot on shipmate. Very good synopsis IMHO.
IDK - read about Stalingrad (or some of Selco's posts regarding survival in Bosnia). People can hang tougher than most folks give us credit for.
What this means is that you shouldn't let your guard down just becasue you managed to make it a month or two after the SHTF.
Lawn mower engines with pull start wheels would be converted to bike engines or more usefully, water pumps for deep wells or distribution systems from streams. Come on, think like a wood chuck and make life easy. Sprouts happen with warmth and water and improve with sunlight, so you could garden even in the winter with a greenhouse.
Don't buy into the doom too quickly.
Exactly, what starts out as a way to impress your dinner guests with home grown food, can become much more should the need escalate...
Some of this stuff makes for some fun experiments/hobbies too. Last year I started fiddling with solar powered hydroponics - different set ups. Some worked great, some not so much. There is definately a learning curve. Especially for those of us who work full time and have numerous other commitments.
Also, solar components can be rededicated to other purposes easily. Doesn't require tons of power either. I am talking about a handful of 40W to 60W panels and home-made voltage regulators.
...like this week we made homemade creamed corn and fresh fish patties with rémoulade over lettuce from the garden, with a Provence rose, La Commanderie de la Bargemone. No guests, only family.
Always lot's of big catfish holed-up under the river banks.
WWZ
Brad Pitt: "Keep on moving"
So the sycophants to the fascist state would be gone, leaving only the rest.
Perhaps the more important question is, What would you do AFTER the above scenario? Could you actually survive in the post-apocalyptic world and, would you really want to? Perhaps, a more rational plan would be to quickly score a few grams of coke or the hallucinogen of your choice, or keep a secret supply on hand, do the coke or whatever, strip your clothes off, and run through the streets buck naked in a state of euphoric bliss until someone either shoots you or a bomb lands on your head. That's my plan anyway.
...do the coke or whatever, strip your clothes off, and run through the streets buck naked in a state of euphoric bliss...
Why wait for war to do that? Thanks for the excellent idea for my weekend!
That was YOU last weekend?
I wondered who that was. I was the guy running the other way.
Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
obviously you don't do much coke or halucinogens. I've never experienced the desire to run through the streets nekid in euphoric bliss. Don't think it works that way.
last time I dropped acid I started walking backwards and couldn't stop myself till I did an ass plant in a benjo ditch.
What am I gonna do? Die, maybe...in spite of all my preparations. But it won't be from waiting for FEMA to deliver food and shelter. The hardest thing for me has been getting family on board with the idea of preparing for hard times. Normalcy bias sucks.
The real problem starts afterwards. All the nuke plants will power down, and their backup generators will fire up to keep the coolant flowing. After a week or so, with no more diesel fuel delivered to keep them going, the nuclear plants will melt down. It is then when we get the real radioactivity hit. Can you imagine 99 Chernobyls or Fukushimas melting down in the USA, all within a couple weeks. That's how many plants we have.
It's not as simple as that. With the control/moderating rods down, US presurized water reactors will not overheat immediately. There are nuke plants that have already put passive water cooling systems in place that will last many months if the grid goes down. I am fortunate that my local one is among these. I hope that the rest will be getting this feature soon. It may be the consequence of real concern over the posibility of an EMP attack.
better have lotta luck- nobody can prepare for a world gone insane..(luck = killed in a milli second in a bright flash)
If hit by an EMP your motorcycle's electronics will be fried.
Most likely I will die. San Diego is a major military base.
A modified Peugeot 12 speed bicycle. Preferably the type that won the tour in the 70s, modified with unflatable tires and add some knife proof clothing. Use a vintage Brooks leather seat. In a crunch, you can eat it.
In preparation get in shape....
In preparation eat lots of carots.
Leave the fitbit at home.
Ride north, always north.
Good luck.
Old kick-start thumper. It should be fine.
What about ignition components? Coil and magnetos ok? I would assume so since its mechanical, but a induced current in the coils might do something crazy. I guess it's the best bet versus other forms of transport.
Just like any weapon producing a large burst of energy: it depends on how close you are to the epicenter.
I recall once seeing a map of EMP intensity, for a device over the center of the US. Right under the device there is a spot where the effect is at a minimum, like the eye of a hurricane. The intensity has a funny shape, as it follows geomagnetic field lines and whatnot. And there's actually a mirror image of the pulse where the same magnetic lines re-converge. Somewhere in the south pacific.
But clearly, the old magneto and coil, or spark-gap and coil antique car, would be far more resistant to damage than a fancy microprocessor-controlled engine. Anything that doesn't burn up the wiring would leave your antique in running condition, or close to it. Meanwhile a smallish pulse would make your self-parking self-driving car an inert junk heap, ... probably not worth repairing even if you could get parts.
Just like any weapon producing a large burst of energy: it depends on how close you are to the epicenter.
You are correct - it depends on how far away you are from the blast. Everyone tries to paint EMP like some kind of "kills everything in one whack" weapon, but as I used to be in nukes (and used to read the "Dash-1" when I was bored), the effect from even a large weapon is limited in range. Small stuff with tiny currents are vulnerable ... so goodbye ECU .... but an old Bronco is probably going to be fine.
Bicycle is best bet. Just how much gas do you think you can store and for how long? Running anything with an engine will make a lot of noise and attract attention. Attention seems to be something you do not want to attract in a end of days scenario when people are desparate.
Best bet is to be able to stay where you are or nearby. Anyone having to traverse long distances will be more at risk every day spent travelling. This risk will probably peak, reduce, and level off at some point but who knows when that will be.
Don't count on storing enough water. Better to know natural sources that are drinkable or can be decontaminated. Potentially rain water but you would want to be careful of who knows what might be in the atmosphere after nuke power plants meltdown or not. Same goes for food but do not count on hunting for subsistence. Most game, and pets, and farm animals will be long gone after two months. Even turtles, frogs, and snakes might become pretty rare. People generally understand that if it is an animal they can eat it. Most people don't know how find the food that food eats. Knowing about acorns is a good start.
Get involved locally to make sure you aren't the minority or the new democracy. You can bet that someone is going to try to make things organized and we all know that someone is going to claim they know what is best for everyone even if it is lousy for you.
I figure the more elaborate the plan the more likely it is to fail. Keep it simple, be nimble, and know what you are doing.
Acorns are only on the ground in my part of the country for a month or so. Need a plan B.
ABSOLUTELY DO NOT eat a BUZZARD !!!!
Joel Skousen has said for years that most people WILL survive in the immediate aftermath of a nuke exchange (not in target rich areas however).
I like Skousen's discussions on survival, but his geopoltical analysis has been wrong every time (at least for the 3 years i've followed him)....the guy still seems to think this is 1960 and we're fighting commie USSR and Red China, so i don't know if i would put a lot of stock into his "lots of people will survive" the initial exchange
so i don't know if i would put a lot of stock into his "lots of people will survive" the initial exchange
Depends on how you define "survive". If you're talking about the blast, yes, most will survive the initial blast(s). However, those not familiar with how to protect themselves from radiation contamination and those caught completely unprepared with be in "trouble"..... and they might not last very long - few days to a few weeks. Of course, we'll ALL be in trouble - just some not as deep as others....
But for how long?
Good question, but remember, nobody makes it out of here alive anyway. Life without rice crispy treats would suck but humans lived without them for much longer than we have had them. There are all kinds of estimates of damage and such, just like there are climate models and keynesian economics. It hasn't happened before, so nobody really knows how it plays out.
I think many millions who weren't fried on the spot would die horrible deaths in the following days/weeks/months from effects of nuclear fallout, disease, starvation, etc. Anyway, would life be worth living without rice crispy treats? I think not.
I think the clincher would be all the nuclear power plants melting down, and all those fuel pools going critical as they can no longer be cooled.
That would depend on the adversaries targeting strategy If the nuclear power plants were targeted, life would be hell for the survivors on any time scale. I live 9 miles from one. I do not consider total nuclear war a scenario I'm prepping for, and hope that noone with these weapons is either.
< "The class of Context Free Languages is subsumed by the class of Finite but Recursively Enumerable languages"
< "It's a near miracle that nuclear war has so far been avoided."
What is your favorite Chomskyism?
Thanks HH - Tin Hat Ranch has some good info for us living in the boonies - and also for those in big cities, i.e. if you are in a big city, bye bye...
Syria is getting syriaous, I really think some of the armchair cowboys in DC wanna find out if our Eagles are as good or better than the Flankers.
https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF...
And swake up call #1 in 2004:
http://www.aviapanorama.narod.ru/journal/2004_5/f-15.htm
And given the bewildering array of troops on the ground, there ARE going to be 'errors' (ahem), with somebody bombing, strafing, missiling, or cruise missilling the 'wrong' folks, whomever the hell they may be this week. Real Kurds, fake Kurds, moderate radicals, bad radicals, Shittes, pro-Asssad, anti-Assad...and our CIC is gonna put boots on this ground? Fuck - just FUBAR.
We have no policy in Syria, and we are now way behind the curve, with the chances of catching up slim to none.
I seriously wonder if the meglomaniacs in DC have considered that if they do manage to start WWIII, DC will probably be first on the bad guy's target list, and I would really miss the Lincoln Memorial and The Wall.
duuuude lives in walking distance from Tech.
It's a near miracle that he hasn't been mugged.
Cambridge not as bad as Berkley, but nearly so.
- Ned
What am I gonna do? I done learned well at school, so I am gonna "duck 'n cover"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_tKAg5KIuQ
...and kiss my ass goodbye
~ A. Einstein
FORWARD MUSHROOM SOVIETS!
Einstein is right. I'd want to go out in the first blast, no fallout and blisters for me; just the flash of light and off to eternity.