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Dec Rate Hike Looms: Despite Job Cuts, Survey Collapses, US Manufacturing PMI Surges To May Highs
Having stabilized at 2-year lows in September, October's preliminary US Manufacturing PMI printed 54.0 (smashing expectations of a small drop to 52.7). Despite collapse regional Fed surveys, and widespread job cuts across the manufacturing sector, Markit claims US Manufacturing is the strongest since May. Both output and new orders surged as input costs fell, as Markit notes, despite cycle high inventory levels, today's data "indicated a robust and accelerated expansion of production levels across the manufacturing sector." December rate-hike odds are risisng...
October data indicated a robust and accelerated expansion of production levels across the manufacturing sector. The latest rise in output was the fastest since March, which brought the pace of expansion back in line with the post-crisis average. Survey respondents mainly cited improving demand from domestic markets and competitive pricing strategies. At the same time, global economic uncertainty and lower energy sector capex were reportedly factors acting as a brake on manufacturing growth in October.
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit said:
“October’s flash PMI survey brought welcome signs of stronger manufacturing growth at the start of the fourth quarter.
“The positive start to the fourth quarter suggests the economy may be picking up speed again after slowing in the third quarter, for which the PMI surveys pointed to annualised GDP growth of 2.2%.”
“Production growth rebounded in October to the fastest since March, in line with its post-recession average, as order book growth revived amid improved demand from both home and abroad.
“However, worries about the dollar’s strength, export weakness and the recent downturn in the energy sector mean that business optimism and employment gains remain weaker than seen earlier in the year.”
Well with great data like this and markets exuberant - theres going to be plenty more strong dollar to worry about soon.
Charts: Bloomberg
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It is funny bc CAT won't even give a forecast for 2016 bc there is no visability. ANd when a company says no visability it means it can't stand what it is seeing.
Management expects economic growth to flatten at current levels next year. However, it is hard to see which end markets are poised to improve as we move through 2016
Judging by the many companies that he has spoken to recently, which continue to see deterioration, the assumption that demand will flatten from current levels for the next year seems overly-optimistic.
is it manufacturing jobs, or manufacturing jobs? I prefer to manufacture jobs than work in manufacturing jobs.
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15horses1donkey.
IF ZERO HEDGE HAD A FUCKING CURRENCY OF IT'S OWN, IT WOULD BE MINTED IN INCORRUPTABLE NON HYPOTHECATED NON DERIVATIVE NON MARGIN ABLE SILVER OR GOLD.
Jesus, fucking kids these days. You all think technology is a miracle. All it is is electrons that can be made to go poof any fucking minute now.
Crypto currency is just a fancy name for digital fractional reserve banking - without the reserve, or the bank.
If I blew up your phone right now, you would look like a cow at the slaughterhouse just at the moment the bolt gun goes off - " How could you do this to me ? What'll I do now ? "
Improvise. Adapt. Overcome. Triumph over adversity.
And, transform your idea into minting a fucking physical coin out of noble metals, with Tyler's permission before he copyright lawyers your ass into bankruptcy.
Manufacturing jobs always peak at the end of the year, every year. Every manufacturer is trying to get as many jobs on the book as possible to make this year "stellar". Nothing to see here.
How can they even dream of maintaining credibility with this endless stream of bullshit.
Credibility for whom? What's important as an "investor" is knowing the Fed has your back. Nothing else.
NegroNomics! Just make up numbers and talk out your fucking arse, because 80% of the population will believe you because they are stupid!
China spoiled the fed's plan for lift off...now, with the "right" data, the fed WILL lift off this year...that's what this rally is ALL about...the market MUST be UP to show lift off is GOOD!!
Rallying on no interest rates for the foreseeable future.
I know EVERYONE bases all financial well-being on MacDonalds...but the fed pumped on that news...that started the ball rolling at a very desperate time
Things suck big time but they're playing money games to line their pockets before it crashes.
Oil is a big flag today, pure sell off while shit stocks go aky high.
how come zerohedge never raises any type os suspicion on the credibility or lack thereof of Markit? if regulatory capture exists, what to say about private capture? is this number controlled by a group?
What rate hike in December?
Please, the US is in depression if you use accurate inflation data such as the Chapwood Index. US official inflation in 2014 was 0.8% and Chapwood inflation was 9.7% - 1212% higher
No rate normalization during my lifetime Bernanke
Everyone is realizing the rate hike won't happen.
Surprised? Shouldn't be.
"Rate Hikes" = Bullshit!
The FED would vaporize its own Balance Sheet.
Condoms stuffed with rolls of $20s more likely.
"Despite collapse regional Fed surveys, and widespread job cuts across the manufacturing sector, Markit claims US Manufacturing is the strongest since May."
US manufacturing sucks, this report sucks, the Markit sucks and the monkey hammer is beating the crap out of gold and silver.
Typical Friday.
Lots of manufacturing to stuff channels.
Where are the buying customers?? Well they don't exist.
Parked "just off the line" cars in Nebraska corn fields on the rise.
Rising USD is going to rupture the planet.
US statistics are no more believable than a US Congressman or President.
Okay, it's "news" provided by Markit. Enough said.
Everything is mahvelous!
Next up. A boom in warehouse construction.
Yep, they have been constructing them out west for months to build grow houses for weed too. I thought manufacturing was only 11% of the economy now anyway.
Luckily I'm in this business in Colorado, recently sold for big bucks a warehouse I couldn't sell for $2 only 5 years ago. On the other hand, it's about the only profitable business around here.
Hey Sheepy, what would you say is the most profitable end of cannabis?
(and don't say "the lit end")
it's all coming to Cali in 2016
Soma16
Add this to the bang up housing and jobs reports yesterday, the market should be shaking in its boots. Or have the numbers and the Fed lost their credibility?
I'll make a bet with you - the Fed won't raise rates before the election. Yellen is a tried and true liberal who probably dreams about Hillary at night.
Not with me
Money-printing SYSTEMATICALLY redistributes wealth away from REAL PRODUCTION to financiers, central banks, governments and their cronies.
The further from the monetary spigot...the more impaired are operations.
Base resources for the factors of production are as far from the spigot as you can get.
Those companies and industries are dying.
Producer prices aren't rising due to inflation; not rising due to credit-driven expansion of demand.
They are rising because the factors of production are becoming more scarce.
As Caterpillar's (and similar companies') results show.
'Rate raise re-imminent' oh word?
my grand kids will be saying...Grandpa...what is a rate hike? Mind you they aren't born yet.