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This Is What It Took To Get The S&P 500 "Back To Even" For 2015
Great news... US equity market investors (judging by the S&P 500) have now lost no money this year (and have made no money). All it took to get stocks "back to even" for 2015 was... no Fed hike, more ECB QE and more negative rates, China rate cuts, and negative EPS growth. What more do you need to BTFD?
These are your "markets"...
Feeling "wealthy"?
Chart: Bloomberg
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Air is awful thin up here.
Got to keep that $4Trillion+ investment from seeing any deflation.
Back to even? pfft, like kiss'in your sister...
AMZN now officially trading at a P/E of 900
Sustainable?
Who cares,... BUY, BUY, BUY!!!
[NIRP, here we come...]
SO what the market is saying is Amazon will be around in the year 3000 and finally be profitable!!!!!
Awesome. That is one mighty buy and hold strategy, but damn. Imagine if you would have bought ten shares of Cheshire Mutton in 1000 A.D.
900? Per Nasdaq/Kiplinger 4 days ago it was 150.
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/good-stocks-crazy-valuations-should-you-bu...
Here's some good news! Expect ebola to rear its ugly head soon because everything is about to turn to shit.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/gm-to-cut-about-500-jobs-at-mic...
That's what I named my boat (Ebola, driven by wind) and it is wonderful how little people screw with me. Even the CG blew off a safety when the name came up. I think they were laughing too hard.
Just an aside....
I'm on 'Biltto Burn III'.
STFR...
Dollar blasting off, lift off ensured, you'll be sorry you didn't start building short positions at this once in a lifetime moment
Don't bite the Fed!
Exactly...the fed is telling you they're going to be tightening and no matter what they say, once started the rate increases will come continuously over the next 1-2 years
If I am really nice and give them my address, can I get them to mail me some of that newly printed stuff?
Guess what? There is a hell of a lot more where that came from too. Unlimited fiat.
Hell Yeah! Make money BABY!
Meanwhile:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=2eXE
Could have sworn QE ended back in Oct. '14. Why does M1 appear to be continuing to increase unabated?
The market trend is sideways and that means everyone in the market is currently on the wrong side according to that old "don't fight the trend" rule. Alternatively, no one has been proven right or wrong. Flip a coin...
"Sideways" is not always a bad thing! Esp Sandra Oh getting drilled while she was practically standing on her head.
Sandra Oh getting drilled while she was practically standing on her head
World needs moar of this.
rocketing USD - this won't end well
get your print on yellen, it's time to by 100% of the SPX to keep it up
Dow to 40k, everyone else get used to eating alpo (and thats the good shit)
Bob eats ALPO. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtkewS89saA
I admire pundits who make concrete forecasts, their forecasts can then be judged for accuracy.
1. Harry Dent - Dow 14k-15k by end of October.
2. Bo Polny - Big Dow Crash in November.
3. Gerald Celente - Big crash and meltdown by years end.
It's enough to make you no longer believe in Harvey Dent.
Believe in no man; only Christ. The biggest moral failure is rejecting such a great salvation.
THE RABBIT???
4. Gregory Mannerino - Big crash looming - this is a fools rally.
5. past perfomance not indicative of future prognostications when one is going against unlimited fiat printing
And lets not forget the fantasy-ground retarded bulls. But that list is just too long. Just tun on CNBC or Bloomberg for a litany of seers. Oh, that is the 'club' you obviously belong to. My bad. Apologies.
The Fed has resorted to unsound measures to keep the game going. They'll impoverish the 90% to keep the 10% better off.
Bernnanke's book title should be "The Courage To Steal To Enrich My Too Big To Fail Wall Street Banker Buddies"
i wonder how much they feel it will be necessary to shave off he phony paper prices of Gold and Silver today just to make sure we dont buy any more....
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
Gold and silver are not relevant as far as price; they are a hedge and in time the truth of all things will be revealed and for many that will be terrible. The currency war, turns to a trade war and then world war; that is the patteren of the Central Planners. This war of all wars is building and everyone can "feel it"; because it was foretold by the ancient book that many neglect to their own demise in the end, for all die in time.
All it took was fake money, fake earnings, and fake speeches.
If anyone missed it, South Park hung reality at the gallows in the latest episode. Butters asks everyone if they are sure about this, Randy says uh huh, and reality is hung.
Everything is about how PC has completely got out of hand, but it applies to the economy as well.
Reality crashes the party:
http://southpark.cc.com/clips/d4uxqq/reality-crashes-the-party#source=ff...
Yes on average we made no money BUT all you ZeroRiskTakers lost a shit load on your S&P puts that you loaded up in August and September at 25+ Implied Vol(ha ha ha ha ha). S&P puts are awfully cheap now, along with gold and oil. I hope you guys are stocking up on MOAR puts and gold and are planning to emmigrate to Bulgaria. The land of the free and unspied upon...LOL.
Always wondered why there so much anti-American rhetoric on this site unitl I found out that it is based in Bulgaria. It makes sense now.
TROLL ALERT!!
My advice to you is to go massively long on margin up here.
I have no idea what you consider anti-American, but I'd bet it differs significantly from the typical ZH'er definition. I don't consider myself "anti-American" at all. As for Eastern Europe, they do know firsthand what life is like when government dominates.
CEO year end performance bonuses are coming up; can't allow real declines in revenue and profits get in the way.
Given the keys to a fully-stocked liquor cabinet by 'adults', kids now eyeing each other nervously, "is this a trap?"
Fucking lunatics
OK, we finally got our "tech pop" based on weak "click-stock" beats compared to dramatically lowered expectations. And promises (not delivery) of a QE binge.
Given that markets are now starting to weaken a bit, makes you wonder what the bulls have for an encore.
I think I know, look out below.
Oh... I thought that was the encore.
Uhh, that means bass solo?
You left out the most important ingredient: ramping USDJPY back above the key .618 Fib level at 120.11.
All that other stuff matters. But, at the end of the day, the yen carry trade is the single most powerful driver of stocks from day to day, moment to moment. It has been for years. I see it every single day, and can't figure out why no one's talking about it -- even the Tylers.
QE/QQE/PSPP are all relavant. But, it's the signals sent by the easily manipulatable USDJPY that "markets" are taking their cues from.
Take 10 minutes to look at the charts in this post, and see if you don't agree.
http://pebblewriter.com/what-really-drives-stock-prices/
http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/10/22/2015/more-qe-would-be-reward-banks
More QE Would Be a Reward to Banks
By Roger Arnold
Oct 22, 2015 | 4:00 PM EDT
In the past few months, I've written several columns concerning the recessionary trajectory the U.S. is on and how the Fed would respond if that continues.
Although a recession is not yet inevitable, the preparation for how the Fed will respond, if required, has begun.
On the recession issue, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) released this morning validates the recessionary trajectory with the opening remarks of:
"The Chicago Fed National Activity Index ticked down to -0.37 in September from -0.39 in August. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from August, and all four categories made nonpositive contributions to the index in September" (emphasis is mine).
On the monetary response issue, as I discussed earlier this week in the column, "When Bad News Is Exactly That -- Bad," the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank has already indicated that a probable response by the FOMC will be negative short-end rates coupled with another round of quantitative easing (QE).
As I discussed in 2011, monetary and fiscal policy come in two basic forms, pull through and push through, which may also be considered reward and punishment.
In that context, the implementation of another round of QE may be considered the pull through; a reward provided to the banks for agreeing to accept the push-through punishment of negative short-end rates.
The first issue to deal with is the potential structure of what another round of QE would involve and when it would be supplied.
The last round of QE involved the purchase of agency mortgage-backed securities. The idea was to allow the Fed to purchase what had become illiquid mortgage securities from the banks in order to provide the banks the capital necessary to make new mortgage loans and in the process drive the mortgage rates down to stimulate consumer demand for home purchases.
As I've noted previously, that structure required approval by the U.S. Treasury, and the next round of QE will, too, because the Fed's mandate has not been expanded by Congress to allow it the opportunity to purchase other than Treasury securities without first getting approval from the Treasury secretary.
The next round of QE will likely require the Fed to go beyond mortgage securities and into purchasing other kinds of bank loans that will likely become illiquid as a result of the economic deterioration.
Those loans will likely be concentrated in autos, commercial real estate mortgages and commercial and industrial.
This, too, will require Treasury secretary approval.
However, it is also likely the Fed will use the potential for it to expand into those areas by requesting that the executive and legislative branches coordinate and supply a fiscal response this time that is complementary to the goals of the monetary efforts.
In addition to requiring the fiscal support, the Fed will require the banks to agree to accept negative short-end rates in order for a round of QE targeted at these other kinds of loans.
The next issue concerns the timing of the Fed moving forward with a round of QE structured this way.
Until the bankers agree to accept the negative short-end rates and the government agrees to provide a complementary fiscal response, the Fed will wait to implement the next round of QE, even if the Treasury secretary approves.
The executive and legislative branches won't have the political support necessary to coordinate and respond with a complementary fiscal stimulus package, however, until there's been enough of a deterioration in economic activity and capital markets to afford for such.
That's a normal part of the political process, though, as there is too much risk to the continued viability for re-election faced by individual legislators to warrant even attempting a pre-emptive fiscal stimulus measure.
A fiscal package is only politically viable as a reaction to economic and market events that have already caused the electorate to not only acquiesce to the necessity of it, but request it.
The most important part of this process for investors, as I wrote about earlier this week, is that the current expectation of a pre-emptive monetary response to market instability or weak economic reports indicating an imminent contraction in private-sector activity is imprudent.
The Fed is telegraphing its willingness to supply a monetary response as the legislative mandate requires, but the experience of the past seven years has also proved that a monetary response provided in the absence of complementary fiscal measures is not just inviable but actually counterproductive.
At this stage, the most likely catalyst for encouraging the required response by bankers and fiscal authorities will be a decline in oil prices, but it may instead first be evidenced by continuing deterioration in the biotechnology and technology sectors.