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Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear?
Submitted by Brian Pretti via PeakProsperity.com,
Emotions are running high for the investment community in the wake of recent market volatility. Up until August, we had been in the third longest period in market history without a 10% correction. Since then, stock indices sold off hard, only to bounce once again over the past two weeks of trading.
As you’d guess, the generic punditry has been out in full force. A good number of very well respected technicians are not mincing words: We've entered a bear market. No equivocation.
On the other side of the equation are plenty proclaiming a successful retest of the lows has been made, and now away we go. Earnings will be better next year. No recession in sight. Just another dip to be bought, right?
And certainly the truth is….No one knows. Especially in today’s world where global central banks can concoct further QE/monetary schemes at the drop of a hat. Let’s face it, at this point the global central banks are all in. In fact, beyond all in. Without question, the US Fed knows that if equities fall, they lose the high end consumer. (Wal-Mart shoppers have already long been lost)
I thought in this discussion I’d run through a number of indicators I've been watching that will hopefully help answer the key question – was the recent market turbulence a sign of a short-term correction, or something larger? We know there's no single Holy Grail metric in this wonderful world, but I tend to think of indicators as mosaic pieces. If we can get enough pieces in the right place, we have a good shot at actually deciphering the “picture” of what is to come. And for that, we can only really rely on historical experience.
At The Margin
A number of months back, in fact just prior to the recent correction, I wrote a piece about US margin debt. It had just climbed above $500 billion for the first time in history. The conclusion of that article was that today’s margin debt acceleration would be tomorrow’s price volatility. Nothing in that article about timing at all. But as we stand here today, I believe watching margin debt levels dead ahead will be very helpful.
The history of margin debt in graphical form is what you see below.
Not surprisingly, historical equity market peaks of significance have been accompanied by cycle peaks in margin debt levels. The chart above is clear. What has been most helpful in the past is to watch for divergences between margin debt levels and price. At the prior two equity market peaks in 2000 and 2007, price actually went to a new high temporarily, while margin debt levels diverged and continued falling. In hindsight, this was a key tell-tale top of cycle divergence.
As we stand here today, margin debt levels have begun to decline from their summer-time peak. Admittedly, the data is only current through August at this point and a contraction in margin debt for August should be no surprise at all. But here is what I believe will be helpful ahead: if this is simply a correction in an ongoing bull market, then we should expect margin debt levels to again accelerate and move to new highs. Why? Because that is the exact fingerprint history of margin debt and equity market cycles. I do not expect margin debt to contract meaningfully (20%) unless this is truly a new bear trend. And we will not see a true move downwards in margin debt until after we see a few claw marks. So watching for new highs that would corroborate further upside becomes one important watch-point of the moment in my book.
The chart below is a close up look at the last three years. For now, margin debt levels in the US peaked in April. Keep your eyes on these levels in the months ahead. If margin debt cannot make it back to its highs, we need to consider this a cycle top in the equity market:
Oh Behave!!
One thing I've been watching for is a change in market behavior in response to central bank commentary. And we've been finally seeing a bit of that from time to time in recent months (last 2 days not withstanding).
As you are fully aware, the Fed again declined to raise interest rates at their meeting last month, making it now 60 Fed meetings in a row since 2009 that the Fed has passed on raising rates. Over the 2009 to present cycle, the financial markets have responded very positively in post-Fed meeting environments where the Fed has either voted to print money or voted to keep short term interest rates near 0%. Not this time. Markets swooned in the immediate aftermath of the decision on the again seemingly-positive news of no rate hikes. Why?
Although we are clearly not fully there yet, we need to think about the possibility that investors are now seeing the Fed (and really all global central bankers) as trapped. Trapped in the web of intended and unintended consequences of their actions. As I have argued over the past year, the Fed’s greatest single risk is being caught at the zero bound (zero percent interest rates) when the next US/global recession hits. With declining global growth evident as of late, this is a heightened concern and that specific risk is growing. Is this what the markets are becoming more sensitive to?
Behavior does not change overnight. And certainly the rally back from the end of September lows has been impressive. But it has also been accompanied by chatter about a potential QE4 or NIRP stateside (neither of which I believe is in the cards any time soon). Moreover, with the release of the FOMC meeting minutes a few weeks back, the Fed admits in their own words they are scared of “volatility.” (Translation? A down equity market.) So in one sense investors know full well they have the Fed cornered. Throw a tantrum and they will change intentions/actions on a dime. And now the Fed even admits it!
But when will continued zero rates or “threats” (Draghi) of expanded QE simply no longer be good enough? I think this is one of the key “tipping points” to watch for. I think we are edging our way toward that right now. But slowly, and not in linear fashion.
It's clear in recent weeks that for many companies, quarterly revenues and earnings growth is a struggle. In fact, for a good number, deterioration has been ongoing for years now. Caterpillar not only missed again (huge surprise, right?), but has now reported 34 consecutive months of declining world sales. In it's latest report, the company announced 10,000 to be laid off over the next few years. And Caterpillar is not alone.
IBM reported its lowest revenues in 13 years at $19.3B. For perspective, literally three years ago in 3Q 2012 that number was in excess of $29B. The year-over-year decline in revenues (not earnings, revenues) was 13.9%. In comparison, IBM never even dipped this low on rate-of-change revenue contraction during the “Great Recession”. Good thing they’ve levered up their balance sheet to buyback shares! (After all, it's the shareholders who “own” the balance sheet and the executives who have the options.) The number of revenue and earnings missing in the current quarter so far, has been more than noticeable.
Walmart indeed made the gallant gesture of raising wages for their employees. And the move cost them dearly, as they just announced a 12% reduction in earnings guidance for next year. Remember, this is one of the largest retailers on planet Earth, accounting for 10% of total retail sales in the US. Suppliers will be squeezed and squeezed hard. More fallout will come in quarters ahead, and be certain, Walmart will react with massive cost controls.
On the bright side of the earnings equation, we’ve also seen a new wrinkle in a number of cases. Biogen announced very respectable numbers and growth. But simultaneous with the “good news” is another type of news – they are laying off 11% of the work force globally. Microsoft “crushed” the numbers….and also crushed another 1,000 employees into the unemployment line. The issue being: even companies reporting strong numbers are letting folks go during supposedly "good" times. Why would management teams be doing this?
I could go on and on about many more examples, but the issue is the revenue and earnings stagnancy to deterioration is increasingly noticeable and the management commentary has backed this up.
What seems apparent is that, for a good number of companies, weakness has accelerated during the prior quarter. Could it be the stumbling of the “symbol” of the economy, the stock market, that has prompted such an immediate response? I wish I knew the answer, but for a while now I have been of the opinion that central bankers are scared to death that if equities start failing, so will the domestic/global economy. They know full well that it is the high end of the wealth demographic that is doing the yeoman’s work in holding up the economy broadly. If they lose the equity market? They lose the high end consumer. And, let’s face it, there's no middle class left below to pick up the ball. Stagnant wage growth, 0% return on savings, and rising costs of living have squeezed it dry..
So in one sense, it all comes back to equities. The central bankers are totally beholden and scared. It’s no wonder Mario Draghi “promises” the ECB will discuss lower rates and perhaps further ease. I fully expect to see more in the way of similar action from the PBOC and BOJ. The central banks are all in at this point. There is no turning back. They will continue this course right up to it predictable and inevitable destruction.
Warning Signals
So, I believe one of the key signals of the coming cycle change will be not only tracking data point anecdotes such as margin debt levels, but also the behavioral characteristics of the investment community. Can investors continue to indefinitely “dance” to the words and actions of central bankers, after 7 full years of those same words and actions having produced nothing of substance in terms of reinvigorating the global economy? Or will the focus shift to the increasingly visible slumping of the global economy and corporate revenues? So far the dancing continues, but the tune is getting old...
We all remember the words Chuck Prince (former CEO of Citi) wished he’d never uttered in 2007. “The music is still playing, so we’re still dancing.” For now, investors are still dancing to the music of central bankers globally. If this behavioral shift I'm looking for actually takes place, prices should react as Citi’s stock price did the day Mr. Prince found out the music had actually stopped. That is to say, plunge violently.
Bottom line: equity markets have not priced a meaningful slowdown in global corporate earnings. They are still pricing in central banker commentary…..for now. History teaches us that equity turbulence accompanied by meaningful economic softness often marks the turn from a secular bull market in to a bear market.
In Part 2: Why The Next Market Drop Will Likely Be 30-40% we look further into the alarm bells of caution the underlying economic data and technical analysis are now sounding. The messages of the moment are: 1) pay attention, this is absolutely no time for complacency, 2) if the charts do not revert back to technical health, do not be afraid to look like an idiot and be “too” conservative with capital, 3) market tops usually frustrate both the bulls and the bears…until they don’t. After that point, everyone is running for the same exit. One that few can make it out of in time.
Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)
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from 2009....Interesting sentiment change: More bears vs bullsBull or bear won't matter once we hit 11/3 -
ALERT: Globalist Agenda Watch 2015: Updates 78-82A – The Vatican is trying again to shut down the US government (+ a P.S. – The 2015 Economist Magazine Cover Features Nov 3 and Nov 5)Until we hit DOW 40K, we're in a bear
"Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull[shit] To Bear[the fuck down]?"
Ask the "algos"....
I pray to the algos, the wonder of our "intelligent" leaders (as in they really know how to exploit the masses and ruin any hope of "free competition", in which, the granny-armed, pasty, flab-mats would be hopelessly pummeled) in "hope" that "reason" will prevail....
The "market" will do as it is told...amen.
"Bull or bear won't matter once we hit 11/3 -"
Ken, good to see you (if that is you, and not a troll).
Remember to bag and tag the troll downvotes!
It's how you know that you "poked 'em"....
Keep on, brother, you are appreciated.
The Bulls cannot shift - in fact the image that comes to mind is from Dr. Stranglove - Cramer riding the bomb downward while shouting Buy, Buy, Buy!
Since 2008, the market has rissen really fucking high. And every day, week, month and year people told me the market was going to crash.
I've shorted it about 10 times and lost a shitload on it.
Now these days, we live in a exponential QE kind of world.
Shorting is foolish.
And now, the market is right again, the worse it gets, the quicker they'll print.
It's that easy.
And those who try to convince they won't and the markets will crater, are most probably the once selling the puts and who are long.
Rule 1 in life: nothing is free.
And information isn't free at all. So if somebody gives you free advice it will cost you.
The best example is from those who sell the books "HOW TO BECOME A BILLIONAIR IN 1 YEAR!"
now ask yourself... if he knew how to do it.... why is he writing a book?
And why aren't they billionaires themselves?
Same thing with those guys who will tell you how to make money. If they really knew, it would be plain stupid to tell everybody.
UNLESS!! They're playing the other side.
anecdote, the Del Mar race track is always difficult for professional handicappers, and some years back one who was featured in SI was down there getting his head handed to him. he was sitting in the turf club and as the story goes losing badly when he turned to the rich owner behind him, and asked hows your horse going to run today?
so Cramer does the same thing, he can call any CEO on the telephone (can you do that?) so these guys make money through inside information. i once worked the concessions with a horse player, who liked to toss big chunks down, and found he could not handicap at all but a few years later i saw him driving a new corvette and living large. well his father was a trainer you see and he could walk freely on the backside where he gleaned some things the rest of us could not. the myth that knowledge and hard work are behind success is just so much boiler plate, (though working the stables for information might involve a lot of rather unpleasant tradeoffs), its not hard work in that sense of the word.
when i played the market i listened to conference calls and i thought i was pretty good at it, like listening to your kid when you say who broke this window. its now what he says its how he says it. but of course what difference does it make if the hedge fund holding most of the float wants to levitate it some more. truth is a fickle hand maiden.
who is that guy who was short China, Chanos? how long did he tell you they were set up to fail? bear markets require real endurance, the bulls get a little support every day. the bear is really the smarter of the two
Could be summed up like this: don't short a market in which a central bank is fully invested. Central banks can create currency out of thin air; you can't !
Stocks were down year-to-date before a couple of days ago...
"Central banks can create currency out of thin air; you can't !"
And that "money" becomes "public debt" by its definition of "fiat fractional reserve monetary policy".
...which will be the name of my new band, by the way...
Tickemaster Presents, "fiat fractional reserve monetary policy"...with Nicki Minaj, Madonna, Miley Cyrus, Jessica Simpson, and Kay Perry as opening acts!
The all-seeing eye is watching your trades...your email, your "smart" phones, your dumb phones, your ass...wherever it goes...."there you are"....
i enjoy reading this site. probably everyday. i, too, have shorted the sp 5 times and lost a condo in vail. im done. until there is an exigent event, including higher rates, or a terrorist attack in dc, or something epic---they gonna print money, reassure the markets, buy back stock, have no regulatory enforcement, or legal enforcement as far as the eye can see.
my guess is they'll run the sp to 22-2300 by year end. earnings dont matter. nothing matters.
and, there is talk all over the street that the ecb will start buying equities soon. sp2500 in a blink.
im out of the $$$ losing business.
i feel like bill fleckenstein, who i watched suffer for five years while they mocked him on cnbc. in the end he was right. im surprised he didnt have a heart attack.
i still love this site. the'll probably sell it to ft for 400mil and turn it into a whorehouse.
The majority of big stock market losers are always on the long side of the market and you can be sure they number in the millions. Relatively few play the short side. Stocks are speculative and dangerous. It's that simple. Ordinary people are savers, not speculators. They have no business whatsoever being in the stock market. The luring of so many regular folks into stocks is a national disgrace.
*BIG BUZZER NOISE*
Stagnant wage growth, 0% return on savings, and rising costs of living have squeezed it dry...
Yes, the cock and balls pattern is evident:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiPUjGNTi24
Aand it's gone!:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DT7bX-B1Mg
Stated without commentary: AMZN P/E is 869.
dont matter
Stated without commentary - Jeff Bezos is now the 3rd richest man in the country.
It's because Amazon Web Services are on fire. No one needs IBM's crappy, overpriced, term-contract software anymore, that's why IBM is getting crushed. Amazon Web Services is the clear industry leader, offering IT services that are easier to use than IBM for just cents per hour.
Amazon is priced with the expectation that it will be the next IBM.
Do you think central bankers will go quietly into that good night? Do you think bazookas is all they've got? Ever heard of the Davy Crockett nuclear bazooka? Okay, mortar.
What history teaches us is that things extrapolate along just fine until they don't and when they don't that's an inflexion point and no-one rings a bell at an inflexion point.
For example, last month Putin was backfooting on Ukraine, today he runs the Mid East.
Some inflexion! Some point!
The market trend certainly remains bearish for Wal-Mart....
http://crackerjackfinance.com/2015/10/amazon-and-wal-mart-atypical-marke...
The forces of a year-end rally are strong. It will be interesting to see if the market holds up against more hawkish Fed hints next week...
theres always a bull market somewhere, and the cbs play this game of hide the salami. you got the QE, no? well then i have the QE (Draghi), or maybe Kuroda has it? no he has the carry trade. so its all bullshit, but the real big bullshit is coming down the road when the IMF issues SDRs which will exist in addition to the underlying currency, its like issuing dollar dollars and then leveraging the dollar dollars and the dollars, its huge and the first thing the bastards plan to do is corner the world gold market. after all if you want to expand the global monetary base by several factors you better have gold in your bank to back it, its hugely inflationary. and when we get that inflation the dow will cross 20000 so fast they will be selling dow hats with programmable numbers, and probably six figures for further expansion. hugely inflationary hugely bullish and if you were dumb enough to stay in short term notes you will be penuried. on the other hand if this really unreasonable scenario fails, then you god bless you, like Doug Noland said this week, its Hobsons choice, which is no choice.
walmart stock back down where it was 15 yrs ago
be up 10% in two weeks
On the bright side of the earnings equation, we’ve also seen a new wrinkle in a number of cases. Biogen announced very respectable numbers and growth. But simultaneous with the “good news” is another type of news – they are laying off 11% of the work force globally. Microsoft “crushed” the numbers….and also crushed another 1,000 employees into the unemployment line. The issue being: even companies reporting strong numbers are letting folks go during supposedly "good" times. Why would management teams be doing this?"
Because they don't care about people...unless they're "shareholders" or Wall Street.
They care even less about place, like our country.
Yet, in one way or another, they expect YOU to be a good customer.
THIS is just part of what has to change, or WE won't survive much longer.
The current corporate model of capitalism is poisonous to prosperity, UNLESS you're part of a select few.
Yet these same sons o' bitches hesitate NOT to paw their way into YOUR government for special treatment on trade, taxes, labor, and, without any compunctions, a bailout.
WHO bails YOU out?
WHEN do YOU get special treatment?
WHEN will WE stop putting up with this?
MARCH, America!
YOU'RE supposed to be in charge...remember?
m
While there is 4 trillion dollars thrown at the stock market, I just can't understand the irrational exuberance. Maybe they expect another 2 trillion dollars next year. After all, the global elite, including the banksters at the top, have nothing better to do than keep the useless eaters alive and maintain the CONfidence.
How horrible it would be if they were really planning chaos from which a new order would arise. Unthinkable.
I'm giving this market maybe another week to start acting according to my model/forecast. If there is no reaction, I'm going to be taking losses and getting smaller. Cash and gold are working well enough.
When I got here ten days ago, I mentioned that my largest recent "trade" was to pull half of the money out of my trading account, cut my position size and start trading smaller. Judging by the past couple of days, that was a great trade. Even small positions can hurt you if you're on the wrong side of a big move.
Vanity is death in the trading business. One has to know one's limitations. I think I know mine well enough. Moreover, I have nothing to prove and no one to please but myself. If I beat Wall Street at its own game in this rigged market environment, I'll probably be one of very, very few people who can do so.
If I fail, so what? It was fun when I was winning but losing is not.
I firmly believe that life should be easy. If life was easy before and it is not easy now, something must be wrong. Why mess up my life for money I do not even need? I'll just sit back and watch the show from the sidelines. Nothing to it...
The house of cards WILL collapse.
-----
However, consider the following very carefully.
The predators-that-be are seeing their ediface collapse around them. I'm talking about the real statistics, the real economy, the real world. They know what is the reality.
At the same time, they have found they retain three extremely powerful, leveraged assets:
#1: Endless fiat debt.
#2: The so-called "markets".
#3: The mainstream media propaganda machine.
-----
The predators-that-be know they can create fiat debt without limit, because they control the fiat dollar printing-press and fiat dollar keyboard.
Given #1, the predators-that-be know they can direct unlimited fiat debt into their completely manipulated "market", and keep that going higher even if every other individual on the planet escapes these "markets".
Given #1 and #2, the predators-that-be know their captured mainstream media propaganda machine can fool a great percentage of the clueless, brain-damaged sheeple into at least nominally accepting their endless FALSE assertions... about the economy and their endless stream of egregious domestic and foreign actions.
-----
And so they will almost certainly keep their utterly fake, hyper-manipulated "markets" on the rise.
I know a great many very smart people who know a lot more than I do about "how markets work" disagree. They believe "fundamental economic factors must cause markets to move in the appropriate direction" and therefore "markets must crash" as the world and domestic economy crashes. They often say "the markets are more powerful than the government and federal reserve".
But... are they?
Increasingly we see that almost always terrible economic news boosts "market" levels (DJIA, SP500, NASDAQ, etc). And the rare bit of "good news" drags "market" levels down.
Why? Everyone knows why. Because most folks are already convinced that "creating more debt and handing it to the banksters will boost the DJIA, SP500, NASDAQ". And so far, even bonds! And how insane is that at 0% interest rates?
So my nominal guess is the following. Since the predators-that-be absolutely refuse to take actions that actually help the economy (at the expense of the banksters and government predators), the real economy will continue to tank, and the only way the predators-that-be have to "keep the balls in the air" is to keep the one measure they can control "looking good" (to clueless sheeple).
And so... why do smart people believe they won't?
That's my question, and I'd love answers from smart people, because maybe they're right and I'm wrong. Maybe there is something they know that I don't. Just don't base your claims on the predators-that-be having any scruples or limits to the corruption they are willing to practice, because they have no limits (because THEY ARE PREDATORS... through and through).
BTW, the predators-that-be also have another very powerful motivation to keep the scam going until everything else in reality ultimately collapses due to harm they have caused. And that is the following. They know "honest, rational, reasonable, productive, benevolent folks" for one reason or other believe reality-based market forces can still determine market levels. Either they underestimate the power of literally unlimited fiat debt creation, or the underestimate how utterly evil and predatory the predators-that-be actually are. And since in the minds of predators-that-be, honest, ethical, rational, reasonable, productive, benevolent folks are their most direct and absolute enemies, they want to bleed them dry now and disable their ability to act once the physical collapse finally occurs (as the market prices rise towards infinity... until physical events finally physically close their fake "markets").
The financial fraudster modus operandi is to bundle so-called securities in order to hide their true performance, i.e., hide losses.
For example, sub-prime mortgage bonds were supposedly worth a AAA bond rating despite the weakness of the comprised credits. Unfortunately, the components eventually matter, especially when the debtors default en masse.
Similarly, mutual funds can look good even when their individual components are doing poorly if just a few heavily weighted securities significantly outperform the list. Friday's market move in the QQQ exemplifies this quite well. If companies go bankrupt, though, their stocks will go to zero and there is no way to hide that.
There's no way to hide losses in the company that went bankrupt, but they can jigger which companies are part of each index, and how they are weighted, to hide losses of companies.
When a company stock "goes to zero", they won't "average in the zero", they'll simply remove the company from the index.
So yeah, the liars have all sorts of ways to lie, but will go to even further and more corrupt schemes as time goes by.
Until the physical system collapses.
Sadly, due to the way the financial and political predators operate, the predators will be the ones who end up with seats when the music stops. You illustrate this perfectly when you describe how these financial predators bundle known (and intentionally) junk "assets" and offload them on suckers. When the music stops, the financial predators will end up in relatively good shape, while all those buyers of bundled garbage will find themselves totally ruined.
So my nominal guess is the following. Since the predators-that-be absolutely refuse to take actions that actually help the economy (at the expense of the banksters and government predators), the real economy will continue to tank, and the only way the predators-that-be have to "keep the balls in the air" is to keep the one measure they can control "looking good" (to clueless sheeple).
And so... why do smart people believe they won't?"
Ann, I sense a number of factors are in play.
Greedy western corporate outsourcing caused ALL of this, and what the fat cat c-suite bastards have done continues to reverberate in a myriad of deleterious ways.
These hacks have decimated the very source of income, not only for western consumers, but ALSO, for China AND the emerging markets. It's bad enough to do the one, but doing the other, with as much as 40% of the world's population, is quite another.
That is NOT sitting well with the "receiver" nations either.
Couple this with China's gold movements over the last few years AND, our neocon hegemonic bullshit with Russia and the Dragon, and the animus is rising. Indeed, more and more of what we've been seeing clearly shows these two powers (not just them, but others as well) have about had enough with the disintegrating west. Just the other day, China made it public they want the Fed to grow a pair...and raise rates.
China is very worried about social unrest at home, and is no mood for more Fedspeak, or bullshit games (eg QE4, for example), that aren't rejuvenating anything. Russia also senses fear, cluelessness, and weakness in us. Both are on the verge of cutting their losses, and are going onto different arrangements to the degree they can. Our corporate-created train wreck is weighing on them heavily.
When the international finger pointing starts, I have NO DOUBT which direction theirs will point either.
The other factor, hopefully, is US.
We really need to start raising the kind of hell not seen since the sixties, and I've turned some of my attention to inspiring just that.
We have to understand just how dangerous AND different all of this is. Mindless, western corporate globalism not only wrecked our economy, but they have fatally damaged an international order with postwar roots. The headwaters were in the eighties, and accelerated to obscene and completely criminal proportions in the decades since. We're not getting better because...we CAN'T. There's been NO effort to recognize the problem, nor any real effort to create a veritable "Manhattan Project" ,economically-speaking, to turn the tide. Indeed, when one witnesses an HP (and others) cutting more than 30,000 jobs, and STILL outsourcing many of them, we can clearly see the bastards just won't stop.
What good is an HP to America if it can't employ Americans?
We can get by if HP fails, but we can't get by on peasant wages in an America that fails.
The corporate hacks won't get this until WE do, and young America, who has much at stake, needs to explode over the continued damage to THEIR future.
Our country has never needed a revolt against corporate and governmental cronyism like it does today.
How much longer will those damaged by bonsai outsourcing put up with this?
THAT is THE question.
m
Recently a slew of predictions have been made as to both the short-term and long-term direction of market indexes. Indeed the markets have proven to be both fickle and baffling making at times extraordinary price moves that can only be explained in hindsight by the influence of a combination of outside forces such as cross border money flows, the carry trade, computer trading, and much more.
Wild fluctuations in the markets based solely on the idea the Fed was ready to raise or delay raising interest rates has been way overdone because anyone in their right mind knows unless inflation soars any increase will be very minor. In all honesty the average consumer will see little effect from an interest rate increase of a quarter or a half percent. The article below titled, "Where Is The Dow And S&P Heading Next?" looks at some of the issues determining current market value.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2015/10/where-is-dow-and-s-heading-next.html