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$19.6 Trillion Debt Ceiling: Done Deal?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Last week, when reviewing the next steps in the 2015 version of the debt ceiling "drama" we said that "that the only certain outcome from the melodramatic debt ceiling fight over the next several days, is the following: the US is about to have a brand spanking new debt ceiling, one that should last it until March of 2017: $19,600,000,000,000."

Sure enough, with just days left until the November 3rd D-Day when the Treasury runs out of emergency cash and is forced to prioritize debt repayments over government spending, moments ago Politico reported that "congressional leaders and the White House are working toward a two-year agreement. A debt ceiling measure is on a parallel track."

More:

House and Senate leaders are working toward a two-year budget agreement that would boost defense and domestic spending by tens of billions of dollars, according to sources familiar with the talks.

 

Top House and Senate leadership aides are huddling with Obama administration officials to try to hash out a deal. There are parallel talks on a measure to lift the debt ceiling, which needs to happen by Nov. 3 to avoid a default. The debt ceiling legislation would be separate from a budget agreement, however.

As we further expected, the new House speaker, John Ryan will not even get his hands dirty and instead the "negotiator" will be outgoing majority leader John Boehner, who will work alongside Democrats, and for whom at this point it doesn't matter if he concedes one last time: after all, he is out. As we said: "this means another victory for the Demorats who have required a "clean" debt raise. This is precisely what they will get, and why it will have to take place under John Boehner as Paul Ryan would surely tarnish his reputation with the Freedom Caucus if his first act is one seen as submission to the left."

Politico confirms this: "Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the presumptive House speaker, is not part of the talks. Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), however, has said he would like to clear the legislative decks for the next speaker. Boehner leaves Congress Thursday afternoon."

And with the big picture deal in place, it is just a matter of time before the specifics are also agreed upon:

Democrats are pushing hard to force revisions of a 2011 budget accord. Spending bills have backed up in Congress, and government funding runs out in mid-December. Senate Democrats have bottled up spending bills, and President Barack Obama vetoed a defense authorization bill last week.

 

Negotiators have pegged a deal as costing about $80 billion a year for more defense and discretionary spending. That's a difficult target to meet through spending cuts, fees and other revenue-raisers that do not constitute tax increases.

 

If a deal comes together, it would have to pass the House with overwhelmingly Democratic support, as conservative Republicans are unlikely to support an agreement. It would also be difficult for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to marshal a majority of GOP senators to support such an accord.

The winner, in addition to Democrats of course who will be assured smooth sailing through Hillary election in November 2016, is also Paul Ryan: "Any deal would be a boon to Ryan as he moves toward the speakership. An accord would remove the threat of a government shutdown through the 2016 election."

And courtesy of Stone McCathy, this is what the final package deal will look like:

We're starting to see more and more reports saying that a big budget agreement between Congressional leaders and the White House could be announced later today. According to several accounts, negotiators are putting together a package that would 1) increase the debt limit, 2) increase discretionary spending levels, 3) extend funding for highways, set to expire at the end of the month, and 4) reauthorize the Export-Import Bank.

 

The deal would reportedly set spending levels for two years, and therefore 1) avert a government shutdown and 2) avoid a repeat of the current stalemate right before the election. Outgoing House Speaker John Boehner would clearly like to get action on the debt limit and some of these other issues out of the way before Paul Ryan assumes the job of Speaker later this week, assuming all goes according to schedule. Boehner will need to rely heavily on Democrats to get the kind of package being described passed. It would be hard for Ryan to do the same, especially in the early days of his job as Speaker. He's reportedly pledged to abide by the so-called "Hastert rule," which says the House leadership doesn't advance legislation without a the  support of the majority of the majority party.

The bottom line: just as we previewed it last week, it is now just a matter of time before the U.S. debt ceiling rises from $18.1 trillion to $19.6 trillion, providing enough capacity to fund the US through March 2017.

 

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Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:45 | 6712666 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

That chart... it looks like.... I dunno.... almost like a parabola.  Weird, huh?

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:47 | 6712675 InjectTheVenom
InjectTheVenom's picture

yaaawwwwwnnnnn .......

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:52 | 6712694 pods
pods's picture

If the debt ceiling isn't raised, there can be no QE.  

pods

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:55 | 6712704 El Dorado
El Dorado's picture

What about the rule of 72?

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:56 | 6712713 MANvsMACHINE
MANvsMACHINE's picture

I may have to compile press clippings from the last 10 times we've gone through this charade to see how the narrative hasn't changed one iota.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:26 | 6712844 Four chan
Four chan's picture

just make it 20.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:35 | 6712902 Tom Servo
Tom Servo's picture

who is "John Ryan" lol - 19.6 T won't last through next year before the "extraordinary measures" are used again...

 

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 15:51 | 6713264 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

 

There is nothing quite as terminal as a parabolic debt chart.

 

You have to be a special kind of stupid to not understand what happens if the trend is extended.  Talk about marginal real returns.  What is coming will bring a whole new meaning to the term 'debt service.'  

 

And then it will simply blow up.

 

How long it goes on before that actually happens is anyones guess.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 18:45 | 6714186 Majestic12
Majestic12's picture

"$19.6 Trillion Debt Ceiling: Done Deal?"

Why stop there? It certainly seems "random" at this point.

The .00001% get free money from a spigot and buy hard assets (land, public infrastructure, people) so they will always be in "power".

Its a pathetic joke of a Kabuki Theater...more like Bukkake Theater....

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:50 | 6712969 daveO
daveO's picture

I see a new DC ritual where the House Speaker is sacrificed on the Altar of Unrestrained Federal Government every two years. He'll then go on to reap a king's ransom in the lobby whore industry.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:08 | 6712759 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"What about the rule of 72?"

That only matters if interest rates are above zero.  Hey, wait a minute, I just had an idea....

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:25 | 6712836 El Dorado
El Dorado's picture

At a -3% intrest rate we could half the national debt in 24 years!

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:38 | 6712913 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

That's like Wile E Coyote exclaiming, "It's all downhill from here."

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:46 | 6712958 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

The rule of 762 kicks in at some point.  

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:55 | 6712705 venturen
venturen's picture

haha...Yellen will invent the USA Visa Card with a $50 Trillion Debt limit and hand it Obama

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:29 | 6712866 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Well, Oblammie is black.

So, he should apply for an AMEX Black card - no pre set spending limit.

Problem solved.

Send my consulting fee of 5 million fiat fedbux in the form of 20 dollar gold pieces to me right away, mkay ?

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:43 | 6712944 Evan Wilson
Evan Wilson's picture

Yes there can be a QE without the debt ceiling raised.

 

The Federal Reserve can just buy more bonds from the Treasury or the public markets. The Federal Reserve just needs to go to the member banks and demand a capital infusion from them or just leverage up some more borrowing on its own equity base.

 

The US Treasury can just print money and use that for government spending. Recently, we have preferred that the Treasury would issue bonds and borrow the money in order to keep up the appearance that maybe, someday this money will get repaid, but everyone knows that is not possible without out and out printing of money.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 15:59 | 6713323 Arnold
Arnold's picture

http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-budget/257923-federal-res...

After having robbed Peter, Paul finds his assets in danger.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:51 | 6712688 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Looks like Obozo done doubled our debt Zimbabwe-style in just 7 years.  

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:09 | 6712766 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

A simple "thank you" would have sufficed.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:36 | 6712906 Tom Servo
Tom Servo's picture

that's kind of "built into the system", the next prez will do the same...

 

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:33 | 6712892 Vlad the Inhaler
Vlad the Inhaler's picture

Obama simply does what his corporate masters tell him to do.  If you have a complaint, talk to the manager.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:56 | 6712990 daveO
daveO's picture

I keep trying to tell this to friends and relatives. The MSM didn't tell them, so it doesn't matter. I always finish by telling them, 'please don't ask me for help when the sky falls, you've been warned, just start calling me Scrooge now.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:51 | 6712689 GernB
GernB's picture

To the moon Alice.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:16 | 6712802 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Exponential actually.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:39 | 6712922 Rikky
Rikky's picture

in application performance testing circles they call that a hockey stick shape.  hockey stick = very bad.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 16:22 | 6713472 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

That chart... it looks like.... I dunno.... almost like a parabola.  Weird, huh?

It looks more like an exponential function to me. 

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:45 | 6712668 venturen
venturen's picture

making a deal with Obama....is that worth the paper it is on. 

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:51 | 6712687 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

All theatre.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:00 | 6712725 RiotActing
RiotActing's picture

Exactly... deal is done...

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:46 | 6712670 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Fuck it. Make it 100 quadrillion. WTF does it matter anyway?

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:49 | 6712681 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Exactly right.  Makes not the slightest damned bit of difference at this point.  We're so far past broke its not even worth talking about it.  The game will run until it doesn't.  Then and only then will discussions on this subject matter again.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:47 | 6712673 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

As if there was ever any doubt.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:49 | 6712679 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

sorry kids....

 

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:54 | 6712700 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

Sorry, children of 2525.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:50 | 6712685 Raymond_K._Hessel
Raymond_K._Hessel's picture

https://www.nationalpriorities.org/budget-basics/federal-budget-101/spen...

Tell me, has the balanced budget amendment ship sailed, or what?

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:51 | 6712690 10mm
10mm's picture

It's a big freak show.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:53 | 6712693 El Dorado
El Dorado's picture

"House and Senate leaders are working toward a two-year budget agreement that would boost defense and domestic spending by tens of billions of dollars, according to sources familiar with the talks."

 

So to agree on a debt ceiling increase we first have to agree to increase tens of billions more in spending beyond what the debt ceiling increase is meant to cover/service....

Makes perfect sense!

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:53 | 6712695 divedivedive
divedivedive's picture

"There are parallel talks on a measure to lift the debt ceiling, which needs to happen by Nov. 3 to avoid a default."

 

Couldn't they simply curtail NEW spending - or cut back a tad - without defaulting ? Couldn't they prioritize the debt repayment and decrease other expenditures ?

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:55 | 6712709 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

That's a big noper.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:58 | 6712717 MANvsMACHINE
MANvsMACHINE's picture

Please stop with that silly talk.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 17:31 | 6713821 American Sucker
American Sucker's picture

To answer your questions, no. The bills are paid by the Treasury, a branch of the executive.  It does not have authority, either under the Constitution or federal legislation, to prioritize which bills get paid.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:54 | 6712698 kaboomnomic
kaboomnomic's picture

No drama please..

DEBT economy. Can it run without the DEBT part??

Sigh..

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:54 | 6712702 chrsn
chrsn's picture

Remain calm.  All is well.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:56 | 6712710 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

Move along.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 13:57 | 6712714 aliki
aliki's picture

of course a "deal" is going to get done. they will keep up'ing the debt ceiling until they don't. just like interest rates; they aren't going to raise until they do. what the fuck do they care? all these clowns care about now a days is how many "likes" they get on FB & TWTR. NOBODY gonna get "liked" by the masses doing the right thing - only the EASY thing gets liked in todays day & age.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:00 | 6712722 mt paul
mt paul's picture

personally .....

wouldn't lend them
another fiat dollar...

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:02 | 6712734 mt paul
mt paul's picture

why raise the debt celling

just lower the floor
of sanity and reason ...

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:10 | 6712770 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Working on it.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:02 | 6712735 ToSoft4Truth
ToSoft4Truth's picture

Boehner saved us....  like we knew he would….  Hooray!!!  Three Cheers!!  what a great fella.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:03 | 6712736 SweetDoug
SweetDoug's picture




Do the math: Cut the debt and defiict.

We’re 500-800 billion in the hole each year and 20 trillion in the hole.

How long do you want to take to get back to zero?

Let’s say 20 years.

Okilly-dokilly!

All we have do is cut the budget by the deficit ? $650 billion or whatever each year, and then cut 1 trillion from the budget each year and well have reached zero in 20 years.

20 years.

That’s if we don’t raise rates beyond zero.

And how are we going to fund medicare, medicaid and Social Security which is broke by 2018-2020?

Inquiring minds want to know.

I saw we’re 30 trillion by 2024.

Mark. My. Words.

I said 20 trillion by 2016 in 2008.

•?•
V-V

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 16:02 | 6713341 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

Actually as true parabolic curves go it should take half the time to double once again, so figure 40 billion by 2020 and then 80 billion by 2022, then 160 billion by 2023.  

But of course it will never get that far, as it will have blown up by approximately 2021 at the latest.  Once confidence in the 3 year evaporates its game over.

Que WWIII before we get to that point, as they would never let the system blow up on it's own.  They'll 'pull it' and do a managed crash / reset.  The replacement system will be waiting in the wings by then.

 

 

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:05 | 6712746 Thisisbullishright
Thisisbullishright's picture

John Ryan???

Is this Clear and Present Danger or Patriot Games?  ;)

 

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:11 | 6712778 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

'Sum of All Fears'

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:07 | 6712756 mastersnark
mastersnark's picture

Why do people think government employees would interrupt their paychecks? They are all welfarians, they aren't going to remove their little pig snouts from the trough.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:22 | 6712823 Mewa
Mewa's picture

Great excuse for China and the Gulf states to dump a few under billion in bonds....chalk it up to more Fed buying printing to infinity......

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 15:06 | 6713030 daveO
daveO's picture

In the long run, debt ceiling increases allow wealth transference offshore. We run chronic trade deficits that are papered over(facilitated) with US IOU's. They get our jobs and we get the tax bill. We're are paying for our own destruction. China and the ME are winning.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:33 | 6712891 Moccasin
Moccasin's picture

Up is Down

War is Peace

Debt is Money

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:46 | 6712910 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

By my back of the napkin we are around 18.4T in debt now once they pay back the retirementt funds. so ths measly 1.2 t  is suppossed to last until March 2017? Right.

Just raise the damn thing to 30trillion so we won't have to look at your faces do the same thing every 9 months like it even matters.

Just  want the attention and the impression of just look how hard we are fighting. Attention Whores.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:37 | 6712914 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

alright 19.600.000.000.000 USD

don't take interest into account (even if we all know most of that shit comes out of interests on interests ...)

let's say the US pays back a billion a month (no, not "borrow", i say actually "pays back" !)

... the debt repayments will be over in 1.633 years !

huuuuummmm bullish !

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:38 | 6712919 Rikky
Rikky's picture

with the current laundering of debt via the Fed what is going to stop the borrowing binge cycle?  is it $25 trillion, $35 trillion, $50 trillion?  it seems they can play the game forever.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:41 | 6712936 madcows
madcows's picture

So what's the unofficial total debt now?  209 trillion?  I forget.

However, I'm sure that the FSA, which isn't aware of what the government's debt actually is, is very happy that the Dot.Gov has secured more borrowed money in order to fund their free stuff. 

Everything from food credits, booze and porn to free Wall St monopoly money.

Hell.  I'm going to invent the next great game.  Monopoly came out in the last depression, so i'll come out with mine during this depression.

I just need an idea.  Something about NIRP, free money and a casino wheel...  Instead of get of jail free cards, we can have "Pay a small Fine" cards.  Or "Lose you Broker's License for One Turn!"  I'm onto something here.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:44 | 6712942 Arthur Schopenhauer
Arthur Schopenhauer's picture

On 08/15/1971, under pressure from the FEDERAL RESERVE, Nixon suspended the convertibility of the US dollar into gold. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNAvsrY9vR4

Kinda looks like that line started goin' up right around then...

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:47 | 6712961 PhiBetaZappa
PhiBetaZappa's picture

Just move the 'debt ceiling' to the Andromeda Galaxy and be done with it.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 14:53 | 6712986 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

seriously, who the fuck cares!

why even waste tyme writing and reading suck fucking nonsense...

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 15:04 | 6713025 economessed
economessed's picture

It doesn't matter.  The debt will NEVER be repaid.  This is just a game we'll continue playing until someone decides the game is up.  Then we'll kill a few people, burn some stuff, write some new rules, and muddle forward.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 15:11 | 6713047 daveO
daveO's picture

It gets paid back via debasement of the currency. Dollar holders beware, you're on the hook. 

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 15:08 | 6713038 3rdWorldTrillionaire
3rdWorldTrillionaire's picture

At that trajectory, we'll be at $40Tn by 2022... sweet.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 15:34 | 6713161 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Of course $19.6 trillion keeps going up. Next stop well over $21 trillion. 

Make it an even $100 trillion and Barry can spend 10s of trillions to impress his welfare and illegal immigrant voters in 2016.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 15:35 | 6713172 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"Top House and Senate leadership aides are huddling with Obama administration officials to try to hash out a deal. There are parallel talks on a measure to lift the debt ceiling, which needs to happen by Nov. 3 to avoid a default."

Why would there be a default if the ceiling is not raised?

"November 3rd D-Day when the Treasury runs out of emergency cash and is forced to prioritize debt repayments over government spending"

Prioritize.  Thus all debt repayment would continue, regardless whether the debt ceiling was raised.

 

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 17:38 | 6713853 American Sucker
American Sucker's picture

The Treasury lacks the authority, under either the Constitution or federal legislation, to prioritize which bills get paid.  Moreover, considering the phenomenal number of bills that the Treasury pays every day, they don't have the infrastructure to manage prioritization even if they wanted to.  Hence, when the cash runs out, the US defaults.

But look, a default would annihilate world markets and the international financial order.  Whatever you think about the intelligence and morality of our congressmen, they know who butters their bread.  The debt ceiling will keep right on being raised.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 15:39 | 6713195 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"The bottom line: just as we previewed it last week, it is now just a matter of time before the U.S. debt ceiling rises from $18.1 trillion to $19.6 trillion, providing enough capacity to fund the US through March 2017."

 

The bottom line: the chart directly below the above comment looks like a forming parabolic arc.

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 15:43 | 6713217 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture
it won't be enough.
Mon, 10/26/2015 - 16:28 | 6713512 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

the debt doubled in 8 years with near Zero interest rates. That is some serious borrowing

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 17:21 | 6713779 OzFan
OzFan's picture

How high can this sucker go?

Got to keep paying the welface or the sheeple might wake up to the ponzi

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 18:28 | 6714078 Herdee
Herdee's picture

If Americans would stop going around the world bombing everyone maybe they could save a few bucks at the same time.With bum-buddies like Saudi Arabia,who needs enemies?

Mon, 10/26/2015 - 23:59 | 6715378 onmail1
onmail1's picture

Money down the drain

Look at the Harvard educated CabalCock$uckerObamma and his govt.

Hah ha ha

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