Another Recession Alarm After Dallas Fed Outlook Deteriorates For 10th Consecutive Month

Tyler Durden's picture

For the 10th month in a row, Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Outlook printed a deteriorating negative signal. At -12.7 (against expectations of a modest rise from September's -9.5 to -6.5) it appears ex-Dallas Fed head Fisher was dead wrong as recession warnings loom large. Below the already ugly headline, the components were a disaster. While production and employment rose (somehow), New orders plunged, Prices Received continued to fall, and Average employee workweek fell for the 9thg time in the last 10 months. Perhaps worst was the drop in hope amid falling workweek and wage growth expectations.



This has never happened outside of a recession... and i snot helped by 12 months of consistent weakness in the New Order growth rates.


Charts: Bloomberg

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two hoots's picture


I am convinced the Fed is out of touch with the reality of the economy.  Staying in their ivory towers and 5 star lifestyles, they saturate themselves with data and presentations, remaining totally isolated from the real world.  But maybe they don’t care about what we care about?


mtndds's picture

Come on everyone, you know its TRANSITORY.  The FED said so.

Ghost of Robotrader's picture

I am convinced they are well aware. They came up with hedonic adjustments and substitutions in the inflation basket that makes growth look better than it would have if the old methodology was continued.  Even with the data massaging growth looks bad.

XAU XAG's picture

Looks like all that wiped out by all that red.

JustObserving's picture

Depression has been here for years if you use accurate inflation data as the Chapwood Index

There is no real growth in America.  Inflation is adjusted lower to create a fake growth

The Chapwood Index for 2014 was 9.7% and official CPI in the land of the free was only 0.8%.  So the Nominal GDP of 5.6% for 2014 becomes real GDP of -4.1%.

The revised real GDP for years 2011 to 2014 worked out to -6.2%, -6.5%, -6.5%, -4.1% respectively.

The US Economy Continues Its Collapse — Paul Craig Roberts

In 1994 the Clinton regime stopped counting long-term discouraged workers as unemployed. Clinton wanted his economy to look better than Reagan’s, so he ceased counting the long-term discouraged workers that were part of Reagan’s unemployment rate. John Williams ( continues to measure the long-term discouraged with the official methodology of that time, and when these unemployed are included, the US rate of unemployment as of July 2015 is 23%, several times higher than during the recession with which Fed chairman Paul Volcker greeted the Reagan presidency.

An unemployment rate of 23% gives economic recovery a new meaning. It has been eighty-five years since the Great Depression, and the US economy is in economic recovery with an unemployment rate close to that of the Great Depression.

pickatheweek's picture

Will you take a look at the ridiculous NASDAQ ramp!  Buahaha must be getting desparate...usual suspects, AMZN, PCLN, FB, GOOG

Nobody For President's picture

It's over already- NASDAQ (.10) at the moment.

Gravity is a bitch.

taopraxis's picture

Bought gold this morning according to my trading plan...plan the trade and trade the plan. However, if my plan does not stop costing me money, soon, I may have to alter my plans.

MATA HAIRY's picture

I have altered your plans...pray I do not alter them further....

taopraxis's picture

Darth is free to alter the deal at will because prayer is not an option for me. Gold is up 2 bucks but the dollar is overbought and due for a reversal. I'm thinking gold should be up about $12 right now and finish the week up about three times that...talking my book, obviously.

Ghost of Robotrader's picture

Lol. You should hope gold and silver go lower so you can buy more. Honestly I would like to see ten dollar silver again and sub 1000 gold. Don't bet the ranch on precious metals but a little bit can go a long way as an insurance policy

ebworthen's picture

October's not over yet!  C'mon Janet, raise them rates!  Liftoff!

Tinky's picture

Ten months is a mere hint. Six consecutive years should raise an alarm, though.

Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

I guess we are not outside of a recession.

ShrNfr's picture

Sorry to hear that you snot. There is help for you someplace.

Kprime's picture

I snot too.  lotsa tissues handy

o r c k's picture

To Be Or Snot To Be

That Is The Tissue

Temporalist's picture

Relax ZH doomers this chart is just perfectly New Normal and BernYellen will fix it in 15 min.  Just transitory non-monetization inflation targeting.  I don't accept your premiseseses.

corporatewhore's picture

the distinction between recession and depression was best highlighted by Ronald Reagan's writers--recession when you're out of work, depression when I am.

Having been downsized in 08 right out of a 30 year career I am in a depression no matter what any economist says.

I say fuck it, no one gets out alive.  Have a good time.

earleflorida's picture


oil and mic's bestest...

,last i checked there are twelve regional fed`mini-banks?

AND, over 70% of all assets in the NY regional fed-maxi` bank... if that's what you call proportional?

think about it???????????????????

venturen's picture

Keep killing the savers and see how bad it can get.