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Traders Confused By Lack Of Central Planner Direction: Pump Bonds & VIX, Dump Oil & Gas
Overheard inside The Eccles Building today...
Stocks were the least exciting asset class of the day...A narrow overnight range tested down to the pre-China rate cut spike and bounced...
S&P 500 Futures spent the glued to VWAP...
From Friday's close, Nasdaq managed to cling to a tiny green close (even as AAPL plunged). Small Caps were weakest...
Trannies continue to decouple... This seems like the biggest "no brainer" trade for now...
AAPL was oddly ugly, giving back a lot of last week's late surge...worst day in almost 2 months and notably breaking back below its 100-day moving-average
VIX and Stocks have notably decoupled since the central bank revelations...
With VXX closing it its highs today...
Treasuries and Stocks remain decoupled from last week's manic central bank elevations...
Treasuries were well bid today (2Y flat but longer-end down 3-4bps)...
As the Yield Curve fell to its 50DMA...
The US Dollar slipped notably against The Majors with a plunge in Swissy offset by strength in EUR and AUD...
And The Dollar slipped modestly lower against Asian FX...
Commodities were generally quiet driftinmg lower of overnight gains...
But Crude was ugly, testing back to 2 month lows...
Breaking out of its channel...
Oil & Oil Vol recoupling quickly...
However, today's crash chart is NatGas which was hammered to over 3 year lows amid surging inventories and warmer weather expectations...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Buy, Buy, Buy!
with both hands muppets...!
disclaimer: Fakes ass rigged Fucking Fraud Markets.....
Bonus Chart: look at the perfect arc thats formed in London and New Yorl and how it lands the phony paper price of Silver all the way back where it was at the close Frdiay....cheers...
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
WTI Going 20s.
RIPS
The Fed is has a choice to continue to fuel the bubbles or watch it all collapse. If they raise rates current debt will be left naked. They have created a lawyers paradise.
The Fed is has a choice to continue to fuel the bubbles or watch it all collapse.
or MAKE it all collapse (on purpose).
.
Remember peak oil? Good times.
Crude and most things associated with it took a body blow today that will likely take it (along with companies/investors) to the floor. Possible tsunami for the markets.
If i was a cynic , i'd say somebodies knows today what AAPL earnings will be Tuesday.
Dream on. Non-gape fudge will make frothy apple crisp
Just a fucking disgusting manipulated shitshow.
isnt it amazing how in august, starting that monday the 24th where the ''market'' fell 1300 pts at a time, and of course every stawk was brought right back up that day to lessen the losses, yet that entire week and the following after those big sell offs, the futures ''market'' would be pumped up like 300 plus pts pre ''market'' to try and erase all the losses. they would do it every single fucking day until it finally worked.
now here u have a ''market'' thats gone up for like 3 straight weeks every day pretty much, and yet after these like 450 pt gains in 2 days, the futures r as flat as a pancake in the morning.
its amazing, not an ounce of fucking selling, bc everything is fucking awesome.
to cap this shitshow off, just wait until wed when the fed says they r not raising rates ( which anyone with a brain cell knows by now) and then u will have bob pissani and cramer saying '' well the ''market'' is up bc they didnt raise rates, pretending as if its not already priced in.
just fucking collapse already u fucking piece of shits.
"Traders Confused By Lack Of Central Planner Direction"
Dude TRADER. I give you INSIDE INFO...
CENTRAL PLANNER DON'T HAVE A FUCKING CLUE OF WHAT THEY WANT TO PLAN!!
Now.. trades accordingly.
Are these graphs of borrowed money, or time?
Nat gas. Wow. Crazy.
The banksters' problem is simple but the solution is unthinkable. The article on Indian gold referred to gold as dead money because it does not circulate much and generates low levels of income but is cash any better, today? Monetary velocity suggests that cash is not circulating at a healthy rate, either, nor does it pay much in terms of yield. Negative yields will only make the situation worse if inflation is the preferred outcome. All financial returns will tend to converge over time to the so-called riskless yield. It seems impossible to me that the banksters do not understand this, thus I've concluded that they're unable to normalize policy because doing that would out the fraud in the system and they are naturally loath to destroy themselves. They're like embezzlers in over their heads with no way out...do not expect them to do the right thing. All said, nirp will not produce inflation...that is a bankster/goldbug fantasy. Inflation is waiting, though, maybe even hyperinflation, but not until *after* the crash.
The Saudi's would love the Fed to raise rates and put debt pressure on US oil.
You know what is missing from those charts?
Any logical reason for the moves based on business activity.
Hmmm, AAPL skyrockets because of rate cuts??!!?!!?!
Do rate cuts somehow translate into selling more phones? Draghi spouting more bullshit????
Sell, sell, sell, Forest.
Now run, Forest, run!!!
Yes, very frustrating, no more so than for those, like myself, whose entire income comes from trading, but this odd pattern you’re seeing, particularly in the QQQs, is rather classic post-Bernanke when a ‘monumental’ week of ‘market-moving’ news is at hand. I used quotes because, quite often, the news isn’t that earth-shattering, but given today’s central bank driven, algorithmically-controlled levels, no big players will take a stand in advance of a) FOMC; b) debt ceiling/budget crap; c) BOJ; d) that little NASDAQ company about to release earnings. So, they sit with both new highs and the lower DMA’s within spitting distance, and churn.
Quite often the post-news moves are far out of proportion, simply because everyone’s tweaking their models at once, and also unwinding hedges. While it appears any minor attempts to sell in recent weeks have been immediately thwarted, so too have any moves to run stops to new highs, something that would have easily occurred as recently as mid-2014 in a single lunch-break, especially the surprisingly impotent Russell. Throw Oct month-end window-dressing into the mix, and you have a recipe for broken markets. Very likely by mid next week, something more definitive in either direction emerges … we can only hope.
So for a day trader, I can definitely share in your frustration(used to be a stock day trader). I may be a weekly holder of options, but I also day trade them when the opportunity arrises. Being on the sell side of both calls and puts affords me a fairly wide profitability range (hence the strategy for every situation) Thing here is, given that I have a wide profitability band, one can be a little more cavalier about position taking.
That said, I held the puts overnight (against better judgment), I still think maybe the simplest answer is the RUT (and trannys to some extent) is telling us this rally is low quality bullshit and the rest of the market will follow. The trader in me who has been bent over and sodomized by every RUT long on wallstreet says, the RUT will probably catch up and everything is awesome once again. For now, I'm going cavalier, greasing my corn hole and...staying short till this POS breaks...if I have to add funds to stay short, so be it...rolled 3 times now to the same short strikes in TNA...gonna ride this whore till she turns. Payday is gonna be huge next sub 66 Friday that comes around...OBX is calling
One of the hardest lessons I'm still trying to learn is that, when you have conviction, you must trade big (yet with standard precautions), nothing worse than being ultimately correct and not profiting much 'cause you had only a 1/5 size position.
One case for the bull scenario is that RUT relative underperf is based more on dollar weakness from a feckless Fed, so as worries about large company currency impact fades, these "more risky" stocks become targets for pension outflows, we've seen the opposite happen on dollar-driven SPY selloffs that, frustratingly, hardly dent TZA perf. Even so, so a risk-on "all time highs" move rarely happens without a RUT lead, so I'm more in your camp. Unless we get a 1:15 ambush TNA is famous for, I think it'll have to drop a bit first. Good luck to us all.
This morning Mr. T. Ferguson continued to hint darkly that "Something" very big and very bad will happen "later this week." Of course he doesn't say what this "Something" is, or *who* it will happen to, or how much later in the week. Later tonight? Tuesday morning? Thursday? Friday? You have to be a paid subscriber to find out. I'm guessing he means metals prices are going to really bite the big one in a way we haven't seen for a couple of years.