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Trump Sliding? Ben Carson Takes Commanding 14 Point Lead Over The Donald In Latest Iowa Poll
Polling for the GOP presidential primary has begun to stretch even the most flexible limits of reality and credibility.
It was just on Friday when we reported that according to "insiders" polled by Politico, the most likely candidate poised to snatch the presidential nomination was Donald Trump. And then everything changed today, when according to a Monmouth University poll Ben Carson now has a 14-point lead over Donald Trump among likely GOP caucus-goers in Iowa.
As reported by CBS, 32% said they back Carson compared to 18% for Trump.
This is a dramatic jump for Carson, who is up 9% compared to last month's Monmouth Iowa poll, while Trump has slid by 5%. Marco Rubio was also up by 6 percentage points.
According to the latest poll, 10 percent said they support Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, 10 percent said they back Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida and 8 percent said they back former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Five percent said they back former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, three percent support Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, two percent back former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, two percent support Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and two percent support Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
What is more surprising is how broad Carson's lead appears to be across practically all verticals:
Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, now leads Trump among all ideological groups. He leads Trump by nine percentage points among very conservative voters and by 21 percentage points among somewhat conservative voters. Carson also has a 17-percentage-point lead over Trump among moderate to liberal voters in Iowa.
More than a third of likely GOP caucus-goers who are evangelical Christians back Carson while 18 percent of that group said they support Trump. Carson also holds a 9-percentage-point lead over Trump among non-evangelicals.
Carson leads Trump among women 34 percent to 17 percent, the poll found, and Carson leads Trump among men by 11 percentage points.
Eighty-four percent said they view Carson favorably and 53 percent said the same about Trump.
How credible was the poll, and will it evoke even more emotional responses by Trump? It is unclear: however one thing is becoming obvious - who is the frontrunning Republican candidate is entirely dependent on who is asked.
As the NYT summarizes, "Marco Rubio has taken a noticeable lead over Jeb Bush and other Republicans in the prediction markets. Ben Carson is now leading in the Iowa polls, pulling ahead of Donald Trump, who had been in first place since July."
The polls get most of the attention, but they’re not the most important part of the early stages of a presidential campaign. The better guide to who’s really winning is known as the “invisible primary,” in which candidates compete for support from their fellow politicians, from party leaders and from donors.
A candidate who wins the invisible primary usually wins the party nomination. At the least, the eventual nominee tends to be a candidate who was a close runner-up. Why? The support of party leaders is both a sign of a candidate’s long-term strength and a source of future strength.
As for the polls, they’re not irrelevant, even at this early stage. But the national polls matter less than the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to vote and the states where voters are paying more attention to the candidates.
Bottom line: nobody still has any idea who will be the Republican candidate, although the NYT is now quite comfortable predicting if not the next president, then certainly the Democratic primary winner.
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The election of your local Sheriff will probably have more impact on you, and you can certainly have more impact on it.
Do you even know who is running?
"It was just on Friday when we reported that according to "insiders" polled by Politico, the most likely candidate poised to snatch the presidential nomination was Donald Trump. And then everything changed today, when according to a Monmouth University poll Ben Carson now has a 14-point lead over Donald Trump among likely GOP caucus-goers in Iowa."
I saw a commercial for Ben Carson so I changed my mind.
>>>> CARSON
>>>> TRUMP
Andrew Jackson
This news is devastation for Boris' plan of Halloween costume. Already is skin cat, but now is must find shoe polish at last minute.
Iowan's have corn cobs stuck up their frozen ass's, what do they know. They suck at everything except farming and we have been doing that for over 200 years.
Whenever Boris is meet Amerikan is impress there is many rich Amerikan is live in Iowa and is own much land. Boris is inquire of Amerikanski skype pal, "you are very rich, please to list asset" and everyone is say Iowa lot.
rigged? or is the white guilt vote really that strong in iowa?
Boris is vote for Bernie Sanders because many year past is once enjoy Fried Chicken Franchise in Moscow and maybe Sanders is bring more western style food to international trade partner.
As long as its not Hillary I'm ok with it.
"Ben Carson Takes Commanding 14 Point Lead Over The Donald In Latest Iowa Poll"
Proof that GMO corn is toxic and causes neurological damage.
The poll is BS. I can just imagine the conditions placed on the sample population.
Lookee, lookee, Carson tops Trump. Be sure to tune in!!!!
Boris, you like orginal recipe or extra crispy??
Well fuck, they rig the elections, so why not the polls too? It's not as if the Average American Sloth gives a shit.
Some ZHer is downvote Boris for comment of Halloween costume arrangement. Maybe is offend because is cat lover or may is envious of very shiny shoe of candidate Mr. Ben Carson? Why is hate on Boris!?
"Why is hate on Boris!?"
It's ok, Boris, worry not.
I have Polish shoes you can have. Just bought in Krakow.
ZH is maybe comprised of smartest peoples Boris has find, but still is full of oatmeal in head.
The polls have been rigged before. It is now a package. They have learned it is too obvious to have the poll say one thing and then the vote to be largely different.
Didn't Trump recently say things would be better now if Saddam and Gaddafi were still in power? He for sure pissed them off with that.
Sometimes what something sounds like is not how it's writte, but you do know that! ;-)
Iowa lot doesn't neccessarily mean a small piece of land in that particular state.
Just trying to help you with your studies of English!
Ever hear of a 'homophone'?
Nothing to do with a gay guy's communication device.
There is no homosexual in Russia! There is no AIDS in China! Communism is purify all citizenry!
Go with the cat Boris. God is really mad at America so he gave us eight years of some random Kenyan guy and the encore will wear some sort of ... thing on the top of his head. We must have really screwed up to get him this mad.
Trump/Squirrel 2016.
Carson is another AGW denier moron on the Right, but this time with a string of angry surgical patients in his wake. Ye gods!
If you believe then lead by example. Sell everything you have. No more electronics , clothing, mass produced food.
Find a nice piece of land and eat off it with just the use of your hands. No fires either because that will contribute to global climate disruption warming cooling.
He should also stop being a carbon based life form. It's just plain dirty.
Hillary's trolls are everywhere...
The term "global warming" brings a kneejerk response from the microcephalics that inhabit the comments section here. Quite funny! Each tries to outdo the other with the extremity of their science denial. OMFG what a bunch of losers!
Someone once told me that there are way more horses arses on the planet than there are horses.
Thanks for confirming the fact.
AGW; The ultimate in junk science for controlling the means of production via controlling the means of combustion.
Isn't this the same group of malthusian bullshitters that profess "To Save the Planet, Don’t Plant Trees"
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/20/opinion/to-save-the-planet-dont-plant-...
Squirrel/Trump 2016 would be less worrying.
I'm hoping for Trump / Deez Nuts.
Genocide of 3000+ innocent American citizens in World Trade Centers #1, #2, and building #7 was the 'screwup' that did the trick where God is concerned IMHO.
Way to go, Wolfowitz.
"Already is skin cat,..."
Ha!
Great to see you Boris. I thought of you when I was visiting Lethbridge this weekend.
Regarding face paint, please do heed the words of satanic insider Chuck E. Schumer...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exGBqnWm27E
Boris is google searching "Lethbridge" and is home of Pilsner Beer and Spudnut. What is Hooterite?
Always good to see you Boris! I don't know much Russian but Welcome back!
Dobro pozhalovat nazad
Carson getting the nomination is Hillary getting the win.
Unless a meteor lands on her in which case I'll crack open a new bottle of Lagavulin.
Yeah it's going to be a tough sell to get all the "conservatives" to vote for another neggar, even with an (R) next to his name.
Yeah because all those african countries, where them folks come, run by africans are models countries of science, civilization, and prosperity.
But voting against Carson would be racist.
But having two "people of color" as successive presidents would surely mean that America is not Raycyst? No?
So white's not a color?
What color do you ask for at the paint store when you want to paint your pool deck white.
Boris is not have pool deck. Is only have balcony and white is not sufficient cover black fungus, but black is most effective cover fungus. So, at paint store, Boris is ask for black. But if "Soviet Grey" is acceptable color, Boris is know alternative source for free paint in subsidization economic zone in most city. Only cost is bolt cutter.
I doubt you are actually 'white'
Slightly pinkish light brown would be more likely.
Race is just a TPTB divide and conquer technique, which only works on people who are incapable of seeing past the end of thier nose.
Seems to have worked well in your case.
You need to get more often out of your hood.
White people are PINKish. No light brown whatsoever. Ask someone to show you that part of the body never exposed to the sun. No brown on that pinkish-white surface if is well wiped.
I think, in the morning, I'll ask the first stranger I meet to show me the part(s) that have never seen the sun.
Could make for an interesting morning!
You should give it a go too.
We could then compare bruises for purple and blue!
Voting FOR Carson would be insane.
Has no one considered that these poll results might be rigged; that the RNC is so desperate to dump Trump that they would do anything, anything, to get rid of him?
ron paul...again
How many have considered (know?) that the final result is almost certainly rigged?
Not enough.
Rather, the entire thing is a scripted play.
It starts off with enemy #1: Hillary, who everyone loves to hate, and whose hatred can be used to motivate attention into 'voting alternatives'.
Queue in Trump, who is surprising to say the least as a front-runner, after his miserable 'career' as a 'reality TV' actor, with his lame "you're fired" shtick. He is fun enough to get people interested in 'the process', but at the same time several things about him are worrisome, so now people are motivated into want a more 'serious' candidate.
The surprising thing today is that the anointed one is surprisingly difficult to guess. Could it really be Jeb Bush? Or Sanders? If Hillary is picked by her party, then it will mean an R presidency, since she is far too obviously cast as 'the one to force people to vote for the strongest alternative, no matter how imperfect, just to be free from her'.
In any case, it should be easy to tell who the victor is weeks ahead of the vote, based on media coverage (especially once you look at the subliminal imagery and attention the MSM give them), but it is not yet easy to call (to me anyway).
But it's not like it matters: you can't bet on election results (too easy, so there are no big takers!), and the result doesn't matter anyway, since it is obvious all the candidates are nothing but BS artists each playing a particular role to attract a particular demographic. Each one of them is a massive rotten sellout, so no matter which of them wins, TPTB will keep advancing their various NWO agendas through their various puppets.
What a gigantic waste of time and effort on their part. It is all so dumb! Misery begets more misery, so you can be sure these poor fools are the most miserable of all, yet they can't get free...
http://truthinmedia.com/ben-carson-drug-war/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_m...
He opposes legalization of a plant and wants to intensify the drug war. If I ever said anything good about him I take it back. He wishes to continue to put people in prison for having a plant.
Do you really care what a bunch of kids from Monmouth University (what/where is that anyway?) come up with in the polling 101 class? Iowa is probably a world away from those special snowflakes learning to poll. Junk poll. Ignore it.
Surely you've heard of The Battle of.
According to the poll
The Monmouth University survey of 400 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted Oct. 22-25 and has a 4.9 percent margin of error.
What is a "likely Republican"? Are those democrats that are likely to change to Republican this election and besides that the margin of error is attrocious.
And there is the Loras College poll that has Carson up by +12.
The Loras College Poll surveyed 1,000 likely 2016 caucus voters: 500 likely Republican voters and 500 likely Democratic voters. The survey was conducted October 19-22, 2015. Both subsamples of party caucus participants include no-party registrants who passed likely voter screen (see below). Margin of error for full sample results is +/- 3.1 percent, while for the party subsamples the margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent. All results calculated at a 95 percent confidence interval.
In other words .. voters already going Democrat anyways are choosing Carson over Trump. SHOCKING!!!!!!
this and future polling are part of Repub mobilzation plan to beat Trump - as fake as the UE Rate
Hey, this is their moment of fame. William Kristol offered to do some fund gathering for a new "Monmouth University Media Center" if they would just do the poll.
(Wanna guess who Kristol is backing?)
It is easy to create all sorts of media dog fuckery with fake polls, real polls, manipulated polls, sex, lies, and videotape.
More grass for the sheep to eat.
Local sheriffs, elected by the community of people they serve - another example of the brillance of the Founding Fathers. That is until another executive order. Too bad Janis Joplin isn't around to sing "Take another big piece of my freedom dickhead".
The guy compared Obama to Hitler recently, publicly embarrassed him at the yearly prayer breakfast, then he refused to apologize. I don't vote but this guy is pretty awesome in my book just based on that. He did not make excuses for his life or situation. He's a prefect example of what coons should strive to be, not the obama slave mentality that most have.
Correct Carson is awesome
Carson / Rand ticket would be really pretty damn good.
For a second I was about to comment on this, then I remembered that in the end it doesn't really matter who is elected. It's the same coin.
Yes, yes I know. I refuse to be drawn into voting for national elections.
you didn't cast that ballot, that was cast by someone else.....
THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT.
I don't see this being a setup. We're going to have a chance to vote for someone who is going to upset the system, or fail to do so. It's not like every other year, consider votiing.
TRUMP !!!
Even the europeans would love a chance to vote for him.
NO RAND.
What are you striving to be, DickBreath? I know "coons" lots of 'em that make more money, pay more tax and are probably much more intellectually sound then you bro. Lot of em just want to be left alone alot of them are against welfare Personal Corporate and Banker. Actually a black dude in 2001 I met right after Marine boot camp put me on to what the fuck the Gov. Is all about.
http://tinyurl.com/njum8kf
rat jumping sinking ship years after conservatives had already set it on fire
me too iguana just trying to save his ratings
only news value is as a mile marker on jebs continued slid.....when even mockingbird script readers know you're over
The heroic, freedom-loving, sheriff where I live ran unopposed. It does show that politics works better at a local level.
A neonazi militaristic prick is my sheriff. Wont be up for election again until 2016.
http://www.fbherald.com/news/nehls-graduates-from-the-u-s-army-war-colle...
Except my Sherriff can't use Nukes. My only problem with all these guys is their war stance, even though Trump seems the least pro war, he did say some shit like hang Whistle blowers which is dumb. I think Hillary Clinton would be the best president 'cause that yenta won't be able to get shit done and the more gridlock in DC the better. She'll have Repubs trying to impeach at every turn, it'll be fucking hilarious.
I agree with you. Punishment of everyone in DC and the media for a term, or until the Republicans get her impeached. Light entertainment.
I just switched my allegience. I had been supporting Trump as the most disruptive.
I think both parties are on their last legs, too tied to the failing Status Quo, and the Israeli-neocon foreign policies. Huge failures everywhere, and the Greater World Wide Depression is upon us, they can't distract with anything lesser than a war.
I do hope we can side-track that.
If our rulers have little trouble fixing the election, one guesses that they have much less trouble fixing the polls.
They control MSM, what would be the barrier to controlling the most popular polling agencies, and giving them influence via publicity?
Results of public polling are known to be very sensitive to the exact way a question is phrased, the choice of words and the sequence of questions. Remember the conservative pollster a few elections ago that was working for the right? Their policies and people were quite popular while he was working.
Alternative sets of questions are often extensively tested in trials, to select the 'best' set that produce the detailed, authoritative polling results that you see.
I always found it more difficult to believe that all of the polls attained such similar results than the great variation those fundamentals would predict. Professionalism, I am sure they know how to reduce those random influences.
Everyone is buying guns and ammunition, citizens and government. Government, oligarch, minions cannot possibly win, nor even prevail, in a fight with citzens. But we can't even get the gd wars stopped, nor stop Obama from continuing to bait China.
https://thinkpatriot.wordpress.com/2015/01/08/operation-afghanistan-1000...
I think we should all declare our Congress-critter hostage to our gov's good behavior. If Obama starts a world war, we should immediately assassinate our congressman. God knows nothing else we have tried has influenced their behavior in any way, our oligarchs obviously own them all.
-dup-
It's impossible to tell because there are too many candidates. Who gets Rubios supporters? Jebs? Cruzs? Fiorinas? There are too many candidates and people need to start dropping out. This is just ridiculous.
Like Rand. Like the guy but he's at like 1% or something. We need to be adults here and throw in the towel when the game is over.
DUDES!! Re: your comment about Rand Paul, do you not realize the polling showing him at 1% or 2% is BULLSHIT? I said a couple of months back when the votes are counted, Trump will be 10% below his polling then (he already is) and Paul will be double what they have him at. Do you really think Ben Carson is at 30%? No way. I stand to be corrected. Only time will tell.
Why even bother with all this crap?
Just vote for whomever the TV tells you to vote for.
If you ain't screaming END THE FED!!!! from the mountaintop, then I ain't listening.
NEXT!
If they do that then they get JFK'd.
The way to get in is play em, get elected THEN saturate the FED target areas with high explosives.
Honestly I'll settle for the deportation of all illegal aliens in two years. Booya mfers. Je ne parle pas le espanol anyways.
Grimaldus
I don't think we should get the gov into the practice of house-to-house roundups. Terrible precedent in every country in which it has been tried.
A Jehova's Witness who was physically violent as a child? Oh, and who wants amnesty, gun control, and to selectively enforce the laws of the country? Nah.
Wrong. Seventh day adventist. FWIW.
Trump wants single payer medical care and has voiced support for the "assault weapons" ban.
They're the ones who mow their grass on Sunday, aren't they?
No, they're the one's who look forward to Christmas every Saturday.
Carson is NOT for gun control!!
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/07/21/ben-carson-is-talking-about-g...
http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Ben_Carson_Gun_Control.htm
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/oct/26/ben-carso...
Naw, they are the ones who juggle snakes.
Carson should name Rand Paul as his running mate.
Turn the White House into an HMO.
Iowa full of evangelicals. Don't like Trump but I don't think this really says anything other than Iowans likes their Jeebus spread thick.
Thank the gods that Evangelicals are outnumbered in this country by Catholics alone - not that the media seems to understand that. You mix in Orthodox, Lutherans, Anglicans, Episcopalians, and the other reasonable denominations, the Evangelicals don't really matter very much at all in most of the places they are said to be important.
Evangelicals would be fine but for their weapons grade stupidity, and transformation of Christianity into a damn Death Cult.
They are the descendants of Cromwell's idiot, dogmatic Puritans.
and that's all they are.
Although I obviously don't belong to any of the denominations named by you, I am thankful that you are not the sole determiner of what's kosher, and what's not.
All true, especially the "weapons grade stupidity", that was good.
Christianity has always been a death cult!
Protestant denominations outnumber Catholic denominations 2:1. Catholicism is the original Ponzi scheme, but they would never vote in someone that was ethical like Carson. Catholics love criminalies, Mafiosa, and illuminati thieves.
"transformation of Christianity into a damn Death Cult"
+100000000
The USA started off as a Country primarily consisting of PROTESTANTS, DEISTS, and SECULARISTS, with a Catholic Minority.
The 90's Census had it a 50% Protestant, 25%(and increasing non-Christian), and 25% Catholic.
I'd rather not see the USA turn into a VAT run Failed State like South Vietnam and Southern California (I know, many Catholics who fled have South Vietnam settled in SoCal. I've one such person acting out as a Cult Stalker in my neighborhood).
Neil Young says keep em down on the farm:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBRBQSXsQzw
Iowa's picked wrong for 150yrs so what's new?
Iowa is full of cornholers.
Guess I'll have to vote for Trump twice.
I don't know what's worse, listening to the Trumptards or the Bernietards.
"I don't know what's worse, listening to the Trumptards or the Bernietards."
Yet only Sanders and Trump are actually talking about our insane trade policies, and the wholesale destruction of our middle class as a direct result of those trade policies. Not exactly sure what to make of that particular fact.
It's all just talk because they can't do anything without the aid of Congress. It's like me telling my kids that I really wanted to take them to Disneyland but Mommy said no, when I knew the whole time that there would be no trip to Disneyland.
Just have the kids watch the debates. Lots of cartoon characters and plenty of laughs.
And fanatical delusions
Lots of cartoon characters, for sure.
They would be funny, except for the fact that the decisions those cartoon characters make affect you and me.
Let's put an arsonist in charge of fire prevention! What could go wrong?
Daffy Duck Blows Himself Up
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEYYYMuwCyA
To quote our future puppet bitch president "what difference does it make?"
Right on, Doc.
The Insufferable Cunt-In-Chief will be #45.........twice
It's already been planned
One party has not held the presidency for more than three consecutive terms since the thirties/forties/fifties.
Carson will take Iowa with 50% of the total votes (Santorum took Iowa back in the day). Carson finishes 2nd in NH and then 1 or 2 in SC. Then the fun starts.
Carson is exactly what we need for after the shitshow crashes. If there is an after.
Carson/Rubio.
Dream Team.
Rubio? For reals? Guy is a joke, piece of crap as bad as Paul Ryan.
I didn't say I liked the guy, but he satifies the old guard in the party PLUS he will be getting all the $$$ when Jeb-a-roo takes a hike. Rubio is a career politician who will give the ticket Florida.
I think Carson is the type of guy who would dissect Hitlery during a debate. He had no problem blasting the brown clown at the national prayer breakfast. I wouldn't put it past him to call her a liar to her face.
Rubio is there for show, the status quo will be appeased (or put Kasich there).
Not a bad strategy, I'd prefer Kasich by a wide margin.
Ron Paul took Iowa but they said that Rick and Mitt came in ahead of him. How can a guy get 22 out of 28 delegates and come in third?
I like Kasich too (he wrote the budgets that Slick Willy used in the 90s), and he would deliver Ohio. But he isn't pretty like Rubio or have the $$$.
If Jeb-a-roo cashes out after NH and Trump is still be-bopping along the PTB will be pulling short hairs.
This is as disingenuous and dishonest as it gets from the media. This poll is of 400 people AND only 19% of the Republican electoral has decided.
Is it any more dishonest than the polls that put Trump in first position?
From what I've seen Trump has way larger crowds wherever he goes, compared to anyone else running. Who know what's true anymore, we live in a phony world.
Sorry Ben. You and all the other Republican candidates are spinning your wheels.
The fix is in for Hilary. I can feel it. I've got this twitching in my ass.
There is no way in hell that Hillary could win even if Trump and Carson were found together sharing the merits of naked under age kids.... unless there was BLATANT Dark Lord rigging.
Preparation 'H'
Just trying to help.
As for the Hitlery part, you are probably right.
Honestly, when I listen to what comes out of Carson's mouth and then remember that he used to be a NEROSURGEON, I can't help but feel that he's a shining example of AA at work...
Neurosurgeon-
...and your not one.
you're
i made a typo, but hbu?? lel
If you knew what I know about doctors,three as clients,you would never
see one again,no matter how sick you were.
If you can't see your doctor then it's time to make an appointment with Rand.
This is as disingenuous and dishonest as it gets from the media. This poll is of 400 people AND only 19% of the Republican electoral has decided.
Surgeons aren't typically the smartest of doctors... they're technicians, slice and dice, not theorists, not scientists.
Doesn't mean they can't be brilliant, just means they're in a profession that doesn't really require it.
They are the mechanics of the medical world as opposed to the engeneers who design cars and parts.
I think he's been experimenting on himself with a kitchen knife and a couple of teaspoons.
The Trumpster is starting to get on my nerves, too. But I would never seriously consider Carson. And I've already actively rejected everyone else down the list. Bummer.
Hillary is a career criminal. Trump pisses off the Republicans big time. So there you have it. It's easy.
Trump pisses off the Republicans big time.
Most Democrats do.
Can't we just do a write in vote for Deez Nutz?
I am all for some clever banter, but this Carson dude is so "anti-hedonism" that it makes me sick to my stomach.
Nothing a few more beers won't cure.
The GOP Elites would rather see Hillary in than Trump - because they know she will "play ball".
"We have to protect our phoney baloney jobs here, gentlemen! We must do something about this immediately! Immediately! Immediately! Harrumph! Harrumph! Harrumph"- Blazing Saddles
Yeah, that Donald is a real rabble-rouser what with his single payer medical care and assault weapons ban.
Knock it off with facts. We are here because billionaires are always looking out for what's best for the middle class.
Wow - right hand side pic, looks like Rand Paul is getting the Ron Paul treatment.
That's ok, he can do what he does best in a few months - endorsing shitty candidates like Mitt Romney.
Doesn't matter. The winner was chosen even before the race started.
But Republicans are Wacist! I know it is true because Democrats say it all the time!