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Trump Sliding? Ben Carson Takes Commanding 14 Point Lead Over The Donald In Latest Iowa Poll
Polling for the GOP presidential primary has begun to stretch even the most flexible limits of reality and credibility.
It was just on Friday when we reported that according to "insiders" polled by Politico, the most likely candidate poised to snatch the presidential nomination was Donald Trump. And then everything changed today, when according to a Monmouth University poll Ben Carson now has a 14-point lead over Donald Trump among likely GOP caucus-goers in Iowa.
As reported by CBS, 32% said they back Carson compared to 18% for Trump.
This is a dramatic jump for Carson, who is up 9% compared to last month's Monmouth Iowa poll, while Trump has slid by 5%. Marco Rubio was also up by 6 percentage points.
According to the latest poll, 10 percent said they support Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, 10 percent said they back Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida and 8 percent said they back former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Five percent said they back former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, three percent support Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, two percent back former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, two percent support Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and two percent support Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
What is more surprising is how broad Carson's lead appears to be across practically all verticals:
Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, now leads Trump among all ideological groups. He leads Trump by nine percentage points among very conservative voters and by 21 percentage points among somewhat conservative voters. Carson also has a 17-percentage-point lead over Trump among moderate to liberal voters in Iowa.
More than a third of likely GOP caucus-goers who are evangelical Christians back Carson while 18 percent of that group said they support Trump. Carson also holds a 9-percentage-point lead over Trump among non-evangelicals.
Carson leads Trump among women 34 percent to 17 percent, the poll found, and Carson leads Trump among men by 11 percentage points.
Eighty-four percent said they view Carson favorably and 53 percent said the same about Trump.
How credible was the poll, and will it evoke even more emotional responses by Trump? It is unclear: however one thing is becoming obvious - who is the frontrunning Republican candidate is entirely dependent on who is asked.
As the NYT summarizes, "Marco Rubio has taken a noticeable lead over Jeb Bush and other Republicans in the prediction markets. Ben Carson is now leading in the Iowa polls, pulling ahead of Donald Trump, who had been in first place since July."
The polls get most of the attention, but they’re not the most important part of the early stages of a presidential campaign. The better guide to who’s really winning is known as the “invisible primary,” in which candidates compete for support from their fellow politicians, from party leaders and from donors.
A candidate who wins the invisible primary usually wins the party nomination. At the least, the eventual nominee tends to be a candidate who was a close runner-up. Why? The support of party leaders is both a sign of a candidate’s long-term strength and a source of future strength.
As for the polls, they’re not irrelevant, even at this early stage. But the national polls matter less than the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to vote and the states where voters are paying more attention to the candidates.
Bottom line: nobody still has any idea who will be the Republican candidate, although the NYT is now quite comfortable predicting if not the next president, then certainly the Democratic primary winner.
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All you need to know about Carson from his own web page...
https://www.bencarson.com/issues/russia
Anyone who supports MOAR WAR is not someone you should even consider letting near a nuclear arsenal.
MSM will do anything to pump up Hillary, just look at Drudge today.
linked from drudge...
http://nypost.com/2015/10/25/hillary-clinton-the-fat-cats-favorite-candi...
and
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-26/the-most-likely-ne...
They're trying to sell Clinton as a shoe in.
So by hammering trump with someone from his own party... they're trying to split the "vote" of the Repubs and weaken the Repubs position...
Sorry, but that is an absurd headline.
That's what Donald Trump said.
This is as disingenuous and dishonest as it gets from the media. This poll is of 400 people AND only 19% of the Republican electoral has decided.
Trump like all the others are only good for a laugh. Campaign promises are the ultimate BS.
The true believers will never learn. TV said that Donald is a maverick so it's got to be true.
Wow, fox poll says they are tied, just today, I con fusdddd
Fox news. Second largest stockholder is a Saudi family prince. Need any more info?
Where'd he get all that speed from?
The difference in Iowa may be due to the difference between "likely caucus goers" and "likely voters".
Also, caucasing is not like voting. In 2012 initial caucus resuts give the state to Romney, then it was changed to Santorum, and finally it turned out Ron Paul won the delegates.
We know the GOP establishment hates Trump.
Simple, yesterday ZH printed the results of a survey that shows that Americans greatest fear is government. Dr. Carson is the only “clean” candidate for President, the rest of the candidates are “dirty” with government and corporate interest.
Really, he paid for his medical degree out of his own pockets?
No federal student loans?
Did he go to a private medical school or one that accepted federal aid.
The hospitals he worked at didn't accept federal monies?
Didn't accept Medicare or Medicaid from his patients?
Did he work for barter or did he incorporate his practice?
Would be nice to know how many times he's been sued for malpractice, how many botched operations, how many people died due to his negligence.
Only someone that is pure evil and has shit for brains could misconstrue my statement! Dr. Carson is a world renowned brain surgeon and you are idiot in need of an overhaul. Ha. Ha. Ha.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3264044/Ben-Carson-sued-malpract...
We put 7 million people in charge of saving one person and they all failed, so all must die in order to try again, they deserve it and Providence insists and will not be denighed either.
I have never heard any federal candidate say 'vote for me, your rights are unalienable and I have no jurisdiction over them'. Until then, they are all the same.
This is as disingenuous and dishonest as it gets from the media. This poll is of 400 people AND only 19% of the Republican electoral has decided.
They had Jeb Bush already elected as president a few months back. I thought "WTF? Where did he come from?" Oh, and everybody was excited and thought he was the top pick, according the the presstitute media. But look at where Jeb is now. So I will TOTALLY ignore polls, because they are LYING, and they will use polls to control the WEAK MINDED population. Fug 'em.
"It was just on Friday when we reported that according to "insiders" polled by Politico, the most likely candidate poised to snatch the presidential nomination was Donald Trump. And then everything changed today..."
Iowa is a field of dreams. Iowa is not the country.
Iowa is in the corn belt, big agra, under Monsanto's thumb.
My understanding is this guy wants to double down on our already draconian drug laws.
I think enough lives have been wrecked by these laws.
Also, I don't want another nigger further fucking up my already fucked up country.
Obama is 1/2 white. Blame the white side to be politically correct.
Of course the black side could never be at fault.
His black side is constantly being oppressed by his white side.
Way to mix messages. Good troll.
And he wants more aggression against Russia. What a dope!
Ditto on the drug laws. But it is distressing that one cannot distinguish between 'niggers' and 'black folk.' Carson has several orders of magnitude greater intelligence than Trump. Trump is a narcissist with a juvenile vocabulary, behavior and outlook. People worship him as he channels Mussolini, and perhaps that is the condition to which we've finally devolved. Yeah, I'd vote for the prick if I had to, but it's a dismal choice.
& you F actually think you have real truthfull democratic elections - ha ha ha
This kind of media manipulation will help Trump people to get out and vote!
Right that will totally swing this country around.
Yep, we'll swing a full 360 degrees right back to where we started.
They can even play a little slide whistle sound effect.
And jump through hoops while running down the street in their underwear.
The man is a physician. ICD 10 codes have just gone into effect. Here is an example of one: S46.011A Prior ICD 9 codes were 123.3 223.3 412..basic and nonspecific.
The number now says where, how, why, what and who...Sports injury? Drinker? Health nut? Health disaster? Multiple surgeries? SSRI patient? Abortions, pregnanies, emotional health. I
The Z category is coming in for the old folks I see. Here is an example: Z172.478C that number is telling them all the about everything you did.
I really do not think you people understand what is coming your way.
I don't know anyone who wants another nigger. But I don't know a lot of people.
Rubio is a generational traitor.
I invited Donald Trump to eat dinner at my house, and he accepted the invitation. But then he cancelled. He sent me a note saying "If I had been there, it would have been great."
People who have been tricked into the "conservative" label need to reclaim the legacy of the Old Right, and stop supporting collectivist thuggery as they have been.
Nobody can really define what conservative means. What does that tell you?
They want to conserve what the statists of 20 years ago pulled fresh out of the oven.
CBS must be predicting the future, there are only 5 GOP candidates still running...
(not that Trump or Carson or Clinton will save us)
What's wrong with a Trump and Carson ticket?
Has a much higher chance than any other presidency in decades.
Like a Regan - Bush combo. Bush won afterwards.
Trump will be Regans age when he won.
TRUMP and PAUL
From the semi-ridiculous to the absurd?
what is the national poll? that is what counts. this article is just assinine....
They manipulate everything,,, the money, the polls, the elections,,, you name it, it's controlled by those MF's.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCcdr4O-3gE
I don't doubt the sincerity of Ben Carson. He comes across as a "Genuinely Honest and Nice Guy". The issue I have have is his lack of experience, especially when it comes to World Affairs. This means that he's going to have to surround himself with smart people. His chances of picking the "Correct People" is going to be his first problem. The second is the amount of time to "Get up to Speed" with everything that's going on in the Country. He will be completely overwhelmed and not just an Outsider, but a Fish Out of Water. I see this as Trial by Fire and everyday that he spends learning, is one less day he'll spend fixing. It's tough to beat Ted Cruz when it comes to Government knowledge and unlike the rest of our elected officials, he has stood up for everything he's promised. Cruz is well equipped to Hit the Ground running and that's what we need.
Its Trump / Cruz...with Cruz running in 2020. Pretty straight frorward.
Well, if you want someone with prior experience you should vote for Hillary.
I just heard on the news Trump was endorsed by the American Destiny Party.
Ao prediictable ... first the Bolshevik media promote Jeb. Jeb gets crushed by Trump. Then the Bolsheviks parade Rubio... Rubio gets no traction. The only thing left is to promote Carson. Who can villify Carson... he a religious black surgeon ?
But then of course... Carson has no experinec so one must support Rubio for the hispanic vote...right? Fuck these sociopathic Boslheviks. The people want Trump. Trump is the only REP candidate that has actually accomplished something with his own money.
Lets not talk about Trump approach toward the criminal Fed ...just yet.
We let the machines count the digital votes, which have as much credibility as digital money, so we may as well let them do the voting to!
The issue is whether it's Carson or Trump or Jeb versus HRH Hillary!
Add Putin to the poll he'd be tops.
This smacks to me of nothing more than racial tit-for-tat tokenism on the part of the Elephant party.
<< Trump Winning Iowa
<< Ben Carson Winning Iowa
Let's take our own poll. I believe Trump is winning all polls and the laimstream whore media outlets are PISSED-OFF as are the Republican Hacks...
Carson made some pandering abortion comments recently that basically ruined him for the national election. Sure that pro-life abortion talk plays well with thse dipshits in Iowa with their 6 huge elctoral votes and early primary. But it will not play out well nationally. If the Republicans could smarten up and tone down the anti-gay and abortion nonsense & focus on the economic issues they might win, and thereby win the ability to appoint the next round of Supreme Court Justice vacancies.
Yeah, the GOP has been so great at picking SCOTUS candidates in the past. More NWO judges
Legally killing babies should be ignored in the discussion for president? And people who want to protect the innocent are dipshits?
It's not just legal killing of babies that pro-choice extremists want ignored. It's even the illegal killings, i.e., murders, as done by Planned Parenthood. Murder is defined by legislation and there is no exception for babies once they have been born, even if premature.
If you take a look at the Gallup poll on abortion, there is currently a 50% to 44% advantage for those who identify themselves as pro-choice but 51% think abortion should be illegal under some circumstances and another 19% think it should be illegal under all circumstances. Figures bounce around a lot. We are dealing here with the American public, so you have to assume a lot of people are wondering, What's an aboortion and what does illegal mean? I don't think many people base their vote on the abortion issue, but that it is more likely to be a motivator to vote for the 19% who think it should be murder.
Neither Trump nor Carson is running an anti-gay campaign. Both are against same sex marriage, which is a different thing. There is a constitutional issue here; there is no constitution if judges or congress or the president can amend it by changing the definition of a word.
Silver Shirts for Trump!
I wish we had an honest to God Fascist movement.
It'll be Jeb vs. Hillary
War will come no matter who "wins", but I think TPTB want a Bush in the captain's chair when it all goes hot.
Hates guns and loves the police state? He's a shoo-in for the nomination as the GOP gave up its crazy "individual liberty" platform back in 2000.
You white conservative people are insane.
Black guy doesn't agree with you on everything? Then he's a Muslim from Kenya.
Black guy agrees with all of your beliefs? Then you want him as president.
Nice troll huffpo flunky. I did not vote for obozo once much less twice. I am racist to some degree and no, I do not want another black man leading our (for now) majority white country. There are cultural differences between the races no matter how loud you sing Kumbaya around the campfire with your lib college buddies.
The blacks think things are tough now? Wait til obozo whips out his pen and lets in a million Muslim refugees.
Fuck Iowa. If Iowa did not have the first presidential primary (carnival/freak show), I doubt we'd be stuck with ethanol.
iowa was big on obola too
https://thinkpatriot.wordpress.com/2015/10/19/conservative-values/
We cave-man conservatives are the most civilized people on the planet. The Amish say we don't need eliminate all tech, but they work too hard. I bet a permaculture version of that society, with an Internet, could be a real good place. They have no drug problems, no suicides, no young men grabbing guns and killing people in another gun-free safety zone. The book '1491' indicates the entire Amazon Basin was a permaculture food forest before Columbus killed them all off with European diseases. People in food forests don't have to work very hard.
They don't need anti-depressants, tho I would expect them to like cannabis, it is a down-homey old-timey drug.
Modern values have screwed things up everywhere, and modern institutions, etc. schools, banks, government of all kinds, seem to be dedicated to enhancing the worst of those values. Then we blame all the failures on individuals, no matter how snared in the system they are, how much that system reduces intelligent alternatives, often below zero.
I yearn for the values of an honest, family-oriented cave-man. Far more sophisticated in their grasp of life's possibilities than any of the existing candidates.
So you know the most primitive appliances in your home?
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Another dynamic front page for ThinkPatriot, masquerading as a comment on ZH. These are sophisticated propaganda techniques, your mind may not be able to cope, your mind could easily be overcome with the subtle propaganda found on that site, especially its ability to damage your ability to think simplistically. Thus, your peer group may reject you. You have been warned.
We choose the disc jockey. They choose the music. Don't vote.
Democrats are voting for Ben. He is not really ahead.