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Durable Goods Orders Tumble For 6th Consecutive Month As Core Capex Plunges Most Since 2009
After a significant downward revsision to August's data (to -2.3% MoM), September Durable Goods New Orders dropped 1.2% (better than the expected 1.5% drop only due to historical revisions) for the 5th monthly drop this year. Year-over-Year, Durable Goods orders tumbled 3.6%, accelerating weakness from August amid major revisions. This is the 6th consecutive YoY drop, something not experienced outside a recession. Under the covers it was just as ugly with Non-defense, ex-aircraft orders dropping 0.3% (notably missing expectations) after a huge downward revision for August. What is most worrisome, however, is the collapse in Core Capex YoY down 7.9% NSA - the worst since 2009.
Chart: Bloomberg
As Core Capex (NSA) collapses...
Chart: Bloomberg
And even after the magical seasonal adjustments, Core Capex is the worst since 2009:
Not a pretty picture to hike rates into: simply put, we're gonna need "moar" war, because The US is either in or entering a recesssion.
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GO SHOPPING!...if your broke and up to your eyeballs in debt, there is only one way to solve your issues..BORROW MORE!
People are missing the upside here. This is all due to the increased quality of durable goods. They last so much longer that we don't need new stuff anymore. Seriously.....well, I'm trying at least!
And YouTube videos that show how to fix almost anything if one takes the time to search. ....or just convincing yourself that rattling and sparking is okay so you keep using stuff.
Most Since 2009
Wasn't that the first year of Hope and Change?
Recession. If only.
BUY THE DIP!
(keep on buying until your butt-hole stops bleeding)
And why did you have to bend over for him?
Die the bip!!!
We'll never mess around with the little thing called recession again - one morning, we'll all wake up and the headlines will scream DEPRESSION - WE'RE FUCKED!
Recession is already in play...just masked by CB intervention. Global shipping has been collapsing. Headed toward 5 yr low.
http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexRH.do?timePeriod=Years5&&data...
If you think the 5 year chart is scary, look at the max-timeframe chart and tell me when the REAL recession (depression) began.
It no longer matters whan it began because it's only reported once it's over and the recovery begins.
US trucking is also slowing down. TL routes that were 600 loads, 500 truck bids 120 days ago are now 450 loads, 550 truck bids. TL rates are getting compressed (supply/demand). In routes that are typically seasonally full of holiday shit, they are noticeably less busy. The US IS in recession, and when you think about it, that is a very scary fact, given how far down we have to fall without massive incremental CB intervention. All this malivestment is building up to be the mother of all recessions.
When are they going to change their metrics to include share repurchases in CapEx? You know it's coming, so why don't they just do it already?
In GDP or is it already included???
Share repurchases are currently NOT included in GDP. If they were reclassified as "CapEx" then they WOULD be included in GDP. See how handy this would be?
There is no one US economy to title. We are so fractured and compartmentalized it is difficult to identify it as a whole. For example, oil guy's would likely say recession/depression, Pfizer would disagree as you can have too much oil but never have enough old people.
The Fed is in a pickle as helping (?) one part of the economy hurts another.
Growing number of old people. They don't buy much, so no need for oil. But they consume a lot of drugs, so good for Pfizer.
I'm old and I consume no drugs. I might reconsider if pot is legalized, though.
Interesting action in gold...$5 rally seemed quite reasonable, given the news, yet it instantly got sold. That happened yesterday morning, too. If gold gets slammed, I'm going to add to my trading long position before the end of the week. I had viewed support as being at $1150 and my gut feel is that "someone" is trying to push the market below that level with no apparent success so far. Whether it gets down there or not, I do not know. If so, I'm definitely overweighting long on the dip.
More good news. The recovery is looking good and I expect the Stock Market will be heading to the Moon. The news would be better if Workers come to work and told he Bosses from now on we dont need to be paid but work for free. That would make all Goods so much cheaper and for Money to buy all those cheap Goods we have Aunty Yellen ready to start those Printing Presses to print as much Money as we want. Good times are coming.
"Happy days are here again" La La La
But the Fed propaganda machine told me everything was awesome and they will soon take their victory lap and start normalising monetary policy!