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EUR Jumps After ECB Talks Back December Q€, But Market Already "All In"
With EURUSD having crashed to a 1.09 handle, some would say Draghi's work is done (in terms of crushing US corporate revenues) but there is a bigger problem for the ECB head. The market has already entirely priced-in a cut in the ECB Deposit Rate (in fact is already pricing in even more - at -35bps, from -20bps) which may be an issue as two ECB governors have come out today, jawboning investors not to expect more easing soon. This has sparked a reversal in EURUSD and risk assets are rolling over...
Draghi hints at moar... And the market front-runs it, and prices in an ECB Depo rate of -30 to 35bps...
And then today, two ECB governors said not to expect more!
First ECB's Ardo Hansson said "I don’t see any convincing reason to consider further policy action in December knowing what we know today,"
A member of the European Central Bank's governing body said he saw no need to ease policy further in December, contradicting an unexpectedly dovish message last week from ECB President Mario Draghi.
The euro zone economy appears resilient and long-term inflation expectations look relatively well-anchored, Ardo Hansson, a member of the ECB Governing Council and head of Estonia's central bank, said on Wednesday. A rate cut would depart from the bank's forward guidance and threaten its credibility, he said.
"I don’t see any convincing reason to consider further policy action in December knowing what we know today," Hansson said at a news conference. "If something very fundamental changes, we could perhaps re-evaluate, but now I don't see any need to take such a step."
The ECB last week raised the prospect of policy easing in December and said a deposit rate cut may be on the agenda, even though the bank had earlier said rates had hit the "lower bound" and there would be no further cuts.
And then, ECB’s Rimsevics says No Need to Rush Into Stimulus Before Year End
“There is no need now to rush into anything, especially before the end of the year,” ECB Governing Council Ilmars Rimsevics tells reporters in Riga.
“Inbetween we will have a lot of discussion and debates and fact-finding”
Premature to assess impact of QE, need at least six more months to evaluate data
“We see some very small, marginal signs of a turnaround in lending data”
“We still need to receive more data”
“I believe the program is a good one but monetary policy alone cannot fix the problem”
“ECB definitely is going to do whatever it takes”
And EURUSD is starting to react...
Charts: Bloomberg
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"Do whatever it takes"
bananzi
http://ilarge.lisimg.com/image/64007/800full-whatever-it-takes-(2000-film)-photo.jpg
Can't you do something with this?
if draghi farted on camera it would probably move "the market"
if a drug dealer farts, all his junkies shudder, too
"Draghi's work is done"
Yep, no more bare-breasted "Femmen" Amazons to scare the living shit out of his freakish, wrinkled bag of bones.....
Psych! Just fucking with you guys. No seriously,we're done printing, right after we print some moar.
he will print as long as Yellen does not raise rates. or he has nothing to buy up left. how do you write down mad laughter? like this? buhahahahhahahahahaha
Don't know about you guys but this whole global currency war is far more boring than I was led to believe it would be.
Anyway, is there anything going on with Greece? I read creditors were refusing to send the next tranche of 'aid'. Is this over? Is the EU broken up yet? I don't mean to sound jaded, but..... Zzzzzzzzzzz.
from my perspective, this is a slow-motion trainwreck that started on August 15th, 1971. I am watching amazed since then. hence... the EUR
the EU? plenty of strange ideas around about what it is and what it isn't. as for it's bigger sibling, globalization
The ECB has made their move and I've made mine. I call their bluff and have shorted. A nice 16-month trendline pierced; the devaluation continues (or, the rate of relative devaluation of the Euro to the Dollar continues...)
Good luck. If you fail, as all short sellers have before you, we will remember and memorialize you in Fight Club tradition: "His name was Big Brother."
They are trying hard to blow out sellers right now. Check the charts the last time they came out like this with multiple central banks coming out one after another. They do this when the market is starting to get bear traction. I don't agree they should be doing this and it's blatanly illegal manipulation but this is what they are doing and they do it at very opportune times. Look at the chart on July 26, 2012 "whatever it takes speech" by draghi. Very similar price action, bears were starting to get a foothold after a strong move down in May. Bears were going to take it for another leg down or at least test the bottom of the trading range being created, similar to 10-22-15, which was top of trading range and they blew the top off it that day on the 22nd. Are folks just dying to get in this market, hell no, but central banks are playing a coordinated tune like they did in 2012 and the market is dancing to it because to fight it you risk getting taken out.
Need more proof of their intentional manipulating timing, look at where the S&P was when QE3 was announced on September 13, 2012 and then Bernanke announced he is doubling it in December 2012, the market was at the 2008 highs. So draghi then bernanke twice at the end of 2012 and all this blew the top off the trading range.
Ihttp://verbewarp.blogspot.com.au/2015/10/its-not-economy-stupid-its-econ...
Ho hum
Ignore what the banksters say and simply watch the market...it's cheaper.
"any time soon" ... It took about 200 days the last time, Euro still dumped though.