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Hawkish Fed Statement Sends Dec Rate Hike Odd Surging; Stocks, Commodities Sold
All major US equity indices have tumbled on the Fed statement, moving into the red for the week. Dec rate-hike odds have risen from 34% to 47% and The USDollar is surging (led by a plunging EUR) and commodities are broadly weaker. The bond complex is mixed with 2Y yields notably higher and 30Y yields unchanged...
Rate Hike odds are surging...
Long bond (blue) holding flat as gold (gold), Crude (black) and S&P (green) all slide...
With The major US equity markets dumping...
And as the short-end yields surge, so the long-bond rallies...
And The Dollar is surging...
As EURUSD erases all post China deval gains...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Jesus Christ on a pogo stick, how many times have we done this fucking dance? Fed sounds the 'all clear' for a rate hike, markets tank. Markets tank, Fed relents and goes back to being dovish.
Well I've been here a little over 5 years, you do the math. I'm too busy doing continuing ed on the slowest web site ever. Must have been made by an Obamadesigner.
Should consolodate this to:
Next meeting: 100%
Anyone who trades on the belief of the FED's words should be shot on the spot. It's all kabuki theater. If you are trading by thier words you are helping prop up an illegal system and helping liars lie.
95% probability of a move in 2016.
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA!!!!!
Hawkish statements by the Fed at this point violate the Rule Against Perpetuities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=055wFyO6gag
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddmXM-96-no
October is a Crimex "delivery" month. They don't have enough bullion to deliver and can only pay off in fiat. They aren't going to let paper gold and silver have nice run ups like how today started when it's almost the end of the month.
All this shit is very well timed and always manipulated.
Just keep buything the fuckin' dips and add to your stacks. That is all.
Hence the Fed statement was bearish for metals but bullish for stacks.
I had to do my insurance CEs in August. I feel your pain.
The Fed has trapped itself. They cannot raise rates unless the economy improves leaps and bounds from here. But the economy is stuck while money is free because of all the moral hazard being introduced by Fed monetary policy. And there can be no market price for money until the Fed backs out, which they cannot now do. We're fucked. Proper fucked.
I like how they said business investments are up, while capex is down and corp sales and revenues are down.
The fed isn't moving yet because their friends are not yet adequately postioned on the short side...once they are,
L O O K T H E F & % K O U T B E L O W !!!
Fed sounds all clear, markets tank. Those who were informed in advance shorted the markets and will wait for the next Fed speaker (again informed) to pump the markets back up, rinse/repeat/rinse/repeat.
From Avatar:
"They're pissing on us without even having the courtesy of calling it rain."
Damn people still believe her? We're about to raise rates...NOT. We're about to raise rates...NOT. We're about to raise rates .....NOT. She cries wolf to an extent it is, well sad and funny how people keep buying her bullshit. She will still be playing the same tune this time next year.....and the same suckers will be "hey she raises this time". Fools.
If you combine this news, with story that Goldman Sachs got inside FRB documents, you make the rapid conclusion, the banksters are making trades ahead of news and pocketing the profits.
No surprise they're criminal.
Fed may talk hawkish while it acts dovish. The last rate hike was on June 29, 2006.
No rate hike in December
No hike ever period . Thier corrupt system will collapse period. Fuck it, fuck the fed, fuck the government and banks they work for, fuck all thier employees and families.
i'm sorry but the pets too.
Whatever Yellen does, Draghi does the opposite. She gets schooled everytime.
And no raise in an election year.
Stoopid "markets". They fall for it every time.
Intractable problems that never go away because nothing gets fixed. It's economic Hep-C. It flares up every now and then, but can't be cured.
Just read your response on the Boner thread. That's funny as hell. Since you didn't trademark your response I'm keeping it and claiming it as my own.
It's open-source satire. Use it as you see fit.
what?
There. All fixed. What's on TV?
Spike up into the close guaranteed.
...that along with a relentless sell pressure on gold and silver, because you know, FUCK YOU, that's why.
But winter is coming....
Who in the fuck believes these idiots? The way this market moves on bullshit news should make the 401K paper pushes start buying Ag/Au for when this bitch implodes.
You really think that gold and silver won't tank if the market implodes?
Where do you think gold was 10 to 12 years ago? Uder $300. That's not that far in the past.
Where was iron ore 10 years ago? It was around $30 a tonne, then went up to $180/t and now back down to $40-$45
Most metals did the same thing. Why do you think gold/silver, which have little industrial demand (12% and 50% respectively) won't do the same thing?
On what planet in what galaxy in what universe is 50% little industrial demand? As far as the cyclical nature of PMs (though you did not account for inflation in your post I'll give you that one), you might want to think of gold and silver the way you think of Trump and Carson. Someone eventually woke up and realized that that the only possible way to get what they actually wanted was to go for these guys. What happens when people finally figure that out about gold and silver being one of the only reliable means to store liquidity.
If the market drops 70% in the next two years, people are going to start figuring out that the 401K is the new savings account: a financial gimmick to get you to put five oil wells worth of money into a box so that 20 years later they can hand you enough to buy back one oil well.
open mouth operations...move along...move along
I'll take the other side of that 4% still hanging on the October meeting. Any takers?
Those are the traders who got too coked up and didn't make it back in time from the bar before the minutes have been released.
Why wouldnt they raise rates a little end of october, early december, counting on cover from the money generated by holiday shopping?
little bump, if it doesnt work, its obfuscated by credit/debt balloon, and gives them a place to move back down to...
You make the assumption December sales will be good and they won't. That's why rates won't be hiked.
There are a lot of unemployed reindeer out there and the elves all work for the government nowadays.
"Santa is too busy snorting snow and entertaining ladies of negotiable affection to deliver presents this year sweety".
I do, indeed, make that assumption.
Of course, most people will be paying with plastic...
Come on... no one's gonna touch that?
I think private credit is pretty well tapped out right now.
You can't frontrun an Algo when it lives 10 milliseconds in front of you.
Snowing up in the Dakotas.....
Yay! Go Blue Jays. lol
They should cancel all of these meetings as long as inflation is flatlining.
China can really, really tighten the screws on the Reverse QE thing with another large deval or two.
And that may have been the plan all along.
our money system, our financial system - the way day-traders and speculators decide "prices" far away from supply/demand and other basics...
it all needs to burn.
Marx was wrong about most everything save one - labor precedes capital. In ontological terms, any system that punishes productive labor to reward capital {and excess profits} eventually eats itself.
Recall that Lenin predicted that there would be a socialist revolution in the US because of the eventual excesses of "capitalism" {call it crony-cap if you like, not sure that is a distinction with a difference here} ... I don't claim he was correct, only that one can not say, with certainty, that he was definitely wrong. Not anymore.
Yawn... yes honey your ass looks great in those slacks... now go on and make me a QE4 and NIRP sandwich. Daddy's bullish.
And in the twinkling of an eye, on the day I *must* sell some ounces (or else), the gold price plunges almost $30. In a second. Because the Fed may raise rates, someday. Maybe.
If only I could have dragged myself off my death bed and made the hour-long, super-stressful drive to the coin dealer's shop before noon today, I could have gotten a LOT better price for my ounces.
Well, I see that *Somebody* suddenly sold a great many gold futures in a microsecond. But who bought them? Who's buying?
i'd like to get back to the more unpredictable stuff on the world stage/news...Russia and China
If rates move up sharply, markets tank and USD rockets.
Say good bye to the global economy shortly thereafter.
The FED and the Furious part 42. In this episode the FED may or may not raise rates. Stay tuned for sences from our next episode when the FED may or not raise rates.
They got what they wanted gold down stocks up well because.
Que FED mouthpiece Hilsenrath to give meaning to what words like if, maybe and possibly mean.
This has become a game for this group of liars!
So the S&P drops about 10% in a microsecond on the possibility that, maybe, it's kinda of likely that if the stars align just so there could conceivably, assuming no changes, we might hike rates a smidgen (sorry, Fed speak).
So, what does the market do if those rates are actually hiked in December? 50% drop? 75%? Pfft!! Rate hike ain’t gonna happen. But, it was another great oppurtunity to bitch-slap the PM's back down after a nice attempted run.
Another round of QE anyone?
Good thing Janet Yellen's not a "Hard Worker" She might be considered a racist!
http://dailycaller.com/2015/10/26/msnbc-host-when-republicans-say-the-phrase-hard-worker-theyre-being-racist-video/#ixzz3ptHXtU2K
a 'selloff' huh?
I dont even need to open my platform to tell you the market has since V bottomed and surged higher. I am guessing it is set to close at the highs of the day by this time
... and there you go. Russell up 2%. LOL!
In that case you should open your platform and buy stocks.
Ding ding ding! You are right.
Fool me once shame on you,
Fool me 100 times, I'm a total freakin moron.
Fool me 101 times, NOT HAPPENING.
THERE WILL BE NO RATE HIKE. EVER
But this bullishit, just cost me $500 and I'm pissed.
And Bullishit is not a typo! Maybe I should spell it Bullish-shit
If you're putting money into metals (gold and silver), you better get out the lube, because you're going to get f'd good.
It's Bullish-shit from a girl that fulla shit.
Smokin that Keynesian crack'in.
Just AU me and AG,
better keep stackin'
Just a fake out, not a dump. The market is heading for new highs... brace yourselves.
Ramp in stocks surprised me and turned my screen a wee bit red for the day. I had already lightened up on my stock short yesterday and lightened up on gold this morning, so I will now be looking to add to both my short in stocks and my longs in gold. Difficult market to trade...