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"Hawkish" FOMC Statement Confirms "Moderate" Domestic Growth, No Longer Focused "Abroad"
With a 4% probability, it is no surprise that The Fed did not raise rates. Since The FOMC "folded" in September blaming global turmoil, stocks, bonds, and precious metals have soared as China (and EM) chaos has calmed while domestic data has declined. This has led to 'lift-off' expectations extending to April 2016, and so the question today is - how will The Fed convince the world it 'will' raise rates when it really can't...
- *FED REMOVES LINE THAT GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS MAY RESTRAIN GROWTH
- *FED SAYS U.S. ECONOMY `HAS BEEN EXPANDING AT A MODERATE PACE'
A definite hawkish bias but so we are left data-dependent (fundamentals bad, stocks good), and less economically optimistic, but are supposed to believe that December (34%) is still a live meeting (because of some hockey-stick expectation in data) because The Fed needs to raise to show that it can.
Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 2078, 10Y 2.07%, EUR 1.1060, Gold $1176, WTI $46.01
* * *
Further headlines:
- *FED SAYS LABOR MARKET SLACK HAS DIMINISHED SINCE EARLY THIS YR
- *FED SAYS RISKS NEARLY BALANCED, MONITORING GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS
- *FED SEES SOLID GAINS IN HOUSEHOLD SPENDING, BUSINESS INVESTMENT
- *FED: SURVEY-BASED MEASURES OF INFLATION OUTLOOK REMAINED STABLE
- *FED REPEATS IT SEES INFLATION RISING TOWARD 2% IN MEDIUM TERM
- *FED: PACE OF JOB GAINS `SLOWED,' UNEMPLOYMENT `HELD STEADY'
- *FED REPEATS HOUSING IMPROVED FURTHER, EXPORTS BEEN `SOFT'
* * *
Here are the key changes in the statement (full redline below).
The Fed has removed this section entirely:
The labor market continued to improve.
And removed the "global economic developments" part as well:
Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term
It added "at solid rates in recent months" here:
Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further
It also added that the Fed is monitoring both economic and financial developments, but no longer abroad:
The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring global economic and financial developments
abroad
And made the December decision "rate hike" quite explicit:
In determining
how longwhether it will be appropriate tomaintain thisraise the target range at its next meeting
* * *
Since the September FOMC "fold", precious metals have outperformed (Silver +9%) with Stocks and bonds close behind (up 4-5%) and HY bonds weak...
And Rate-hike odds have collapsed (Dec 32% only) as the expectations for liftoff are now back out to March/April 2016...
Despite Global turmoil's apparent disappearance...
* * *
Full Redline Below...
Finally, the word count moderated once again, and after rising to 588 in September, the highest since 2014, it declined again to 578 words.
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I went to gym at lunch, today. and got a photo in the locker room of this trader from a Primary Dealer desk, maybe GS, and he kept mumbling something about, "All Hail Our BLessed Mother of Thy Eternal Relative Value," and, "Return Us Again, Lord, To Thy Great Idiosyncratic Opportunities Of Thy Holy QE."
Check out his tats!
Wait, are you doing Banzai's gig now?
That is disturbing.
How many made money that had that information before hand?
Look at the Dollar fly, Draghi must be wanking himself into a coma.
and the monkeys are set loose to hammer paper silver and gold.
This is all so funny because all this jawboning is total bullshit.
There will be no rate hike. Maybe something hilarious like 10 bps. But they would still have to lower it again. Or with a rate hike of 10 to 25 bps they will unleash QEternity at the same fucking time.
They don't have anything else they can but just die.
The Fed Res's statement and actions on rate hikes can be summed up in one word.......BULLSHIT!
Hey mister felon Yellen, I FUCKING dare you to raise rates. I double dog dare you!!
You've got nothing but bluster. Lying sacks of tribal shit!
All hail our High Priests!
And may the Lord bless our new 5-year plan!
exactly how much do we pay these chumps at the Fed when all they seem to do is redraft the same freaking document with a few twizzles here and there? Do they actually do anything else?
Maybe the lever in their engine room that they crank to action a raising of rates snapped in 2008 and theyve been covering ever since
I like how Saint Janet holds The Holy One in one arm, and America in the other.
"So, when you look back, when do you think you actually sold out? Was it when you went to work for Goldman Sachs?"
"No, I think it was when I had Keynes tattooed on my tit--that's when I knew I was really gonzo."
No, this is outright farud to manipualte markets. How many times is the market going to crush Gold on the words of this clown operation?
The FED's action or inaction tells me that the economy is really BAD. So bad that they cant even raise rates by .25%!!!
mtndds,
Duh!
Anyone who trades on the belief of the FED's words should be shot on the spot.
I can no longer blame the FED, that's right you heard me. Now the blame has been moved to the traders and speculators because it's so obvious that the FED is lying and has been for some time - that you have to be complict in the lies to keep this carade going. If you are trading by thier words you are helping prop up an illegal system and helping liars lie. I no longer blame the FED.
well at least he will be easy to recognize when we start killing these sociopath mother fuckers.......
Remember when they just had secret handshakes.
Thats just fucking disturbing.
Going to need a lot of beer to erase the neurons in my brain where that image is stored. I guess I better get started. Five o'clock somewhere...
His nipples are too low. What a freak.
Better keep them tit muscles pumped, or that mural is really going to look funky...
m
So what happened and got "all good" in the last 30 days to where Yeller isn't worried about global anymore?
I'm shocked.., shocked I tell you that the fed didn't raise rates...., again. Maybe next time..., Lol
But they talk a mean game. Hawks, and they are right on it!
Amazing anyone would use the word "hawk" to describe the FED and the buffoons running it. Lacker was the only one voting for a token .25% increase, which when compared to real inflation is meaningless.
They aren't ever going to raise rates. Game Over.
Stop rubbing it in. I paid up. Now let me grieve.
Care do speculate on NIRP?
Um... why? Do you? You're difficult to make a bet with since we're almost always in general agreement. That leaves only timing and magnitude of the event to bet on, which is notoriously dangerous for me.
I'm still generally of the belief they will try to raise rates (just so they "prove" they could) before slamming them down through the floor again. You're more of a "straight line down and to the right" guy.
that was my consensus for Sept. now i believe that it is all talk, they missed their chance to look relevant. Europe is leading the way to NIRP.
Understood. I feel like the IMF with my future predictions missing by larger and larger amounts no matter how low I make them. I'm the one drawing fairytale Fed Funds Rate "hockey sticks" in my mind.
Couple years from now Doc and I will probably be betting on whether the Fed will ever raise rates above -3% again.
I forget the bet. Wasn't it a sammich?
Yeah. I paid up early when the market tanked in August. I knew there was no way the Fed was going to hit lift-off in September after something like that.
same crap.. different month.. ZIRP!
Bill Gross: ZIRP Exacerbates Pension & Retirement
Maybe next time
Absolutely!!!
and of course .....
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/silver.php
not falling for it mother fuckers...
MORE WILL BE BOUGHT TIL I DIE....
DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS.
Yep. Watch the market soar the last hour today. Interesting to see what will happen to AG and AU. Not that it fucking matters a whole helluva a lot.
DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS x 100000
Yep gold and silver down because someday the Fed may raise rates. Assclowns.
i mean it so fucking stupid and obvious...
we all know nobody sells anything in this fashion unless of course they r attemtpting to crush sentiment...
The real message: "Yeah, well, maybe we can't raise rates but we can sell some goddamn gold futures!! Watch this! Hah! " /stamps her little cleft hoof and snorts.
YAWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
sound like they are going to raise but never raise <= FED in 10 words
They economy is tanking and they are talking about how good things are still....
They will be the last to know we are in the new greater recession.
They know . . . and they know they are trapped.
*FED SEES SOLID GAINS IN HOUSEHOLD SPENDING, BUSINESS INVESTMENT
trying to kickstart that holiday retail spending. doomed to failure.
#Europe #migrants #earlybird #BlackFriday
lol - exactly dr. engali ... BTFD because if there is ANY dip, im sure bullard & co. will be out before the weekend talking of extended accomadation, potential for QE4, blah-blah-blah ... there is NO FUCKING WAY they can allow the stock market to go down because that would show the economy for what it is - complete dogshit.
Yes, clearly they would never do anything to fuck us.
yeah.but are we still on target to collapse before 2015 ends?
help me understand
thanks
as usual, it is always a farce.
Hawkish,but no Rate hikes,yikes
---------
Real Hawk dies...! :D :P
Every other central bank in the world is cutting into negative territory and these assholes pretend like they are going to raise any day now. What a bunch of douche bag retards.
The spinmeisters are running out of silk
See? Everything is awesome! Just not awesome enough to stop printing money for the wealthy!
Don't think we will ever see a hike again, it would cost them too much to do it.
"She loves me, she loves me not..."
Draghi will be pleased.
Janet Yellen has a job with no activity. There is a book called "Waiting for Godot"....Godot never shows up.
I think it is a book about the Federal Reserve.
Yellen has done NOTHING since being in office...........Sun's up! Free beer tomorrow.
That's it....back to the office couch.
Raising rates to 5% would be hawkish. Rates have been near ZERO for 7 years, what changed today?...nothing.
The last time the Fed raised rates was June 2006, over 9 years ago.
But who is counting?
This is a buy, right??
So which way does the gold price go, now? I *have* to sell some either today or tomorrow, to pay my Dad's nursing home bill (which is already late). I'd like to get the best possible price. Timing is critical. Even a few dollars either way matters.
Dad has been in the nursing home seven years and five days now, since October 23, 2008. 100 percent private pay. $5,700 a month. How many months in seven years? He will turn 95 in November. I will soon be 59, and I am in failing health myself, largely thanks to being unable to afford to maintain my own health, thanks to crushed metals prices. So, yes, the "phony paper price" does matter to me, and the coin dealer I sell to.
Now let all the smugsters who bought a pallet load of gold at $270 *way* back in the day, and have never needed to sell one ounce ever, mock on. Laugh while you can.
I doubt anybody here will laugh at your plight except the trolls and sock puppets.
Some things transcend money matters. No one is laughing. Best wishes for you and Dad.
Ditto...
dude humanity has not died in a lot of us...
ur real money is ur savings...
when u HAVE TO deploy it do so...
best wishes to u and ur fam....
no Medicaid in your state Jim?
@ John Nadler: No Medicaid until everything you have to your name has been spent down to no more than $2000. Until then, you can't even apply. And just because you apply, doesn't mean they'll approve you. And even if they do (eventually) approve, they don't pick up the whole tab. They pay less than half, about five-twelfths.
I have walked in your shoes. But, I have to ask does your father want to live until he is late 90's. If he is lucid, this is a conversation you must have with him. You'd be suprised how people can 'let go' when they know family is at ease with their departure.
I WANT MY MAYPO !!
What a fing joke. Dow's bouncing around like a penny stock and it's all based on what is said in a Fed meeting...pitiful indeed.
We are so not dovish that we aren't doing anything...again.
And now the big PM dump, just because the FED has spoken. There is no logical reason
Besides hanging some bankers in a fit of justified rage , why would anyone want a rate hike? With a rate hike, it all goes to shit(tier).
What just happened to the VIX?
Everything is good I heard on a Boston radio station this morning that the governors council members should not get a raise because there has been NO INFLATION since their last raise in 2005 see all fixed.
So after listening to that statement and watching another moron cop beat somebody because he has mommy issues I don't really know where we go from here.
"This has led to 'lift-off' expectations extending to April 2016"
WWIII will have started by then.
So, if you need sound advice on how to complete a whole day without swallowing your tongue...I met a Bernie Bot I can refer you toward. He will *FIX IT*
They will switch a few words around in the Dec. statement, when once again they do NOT raise rates!
I mean come on it will be Dec. X-mas holidays and Bankster bonuses are coming up!
Can't ruin all that happiness with a stinking rate rise!
DJIA was +130 in the hr before the FOMC announcement. Now in the red...barely.
How high will it bounce by the close?
1) back to +130
2) btw/ +60-130
3) higher than +130
This is a not a gambling site.
Disregard my earlier question. After spending a really long time laboriously hunting-and-pecking out my last post with two fingers, I was able to go back and look at the charts. Gold price just plunged vertically almost $20 in a second or so. On the news that the Fed will not raise rates now or any time very soon, but *may* raise them *someday*. Maybe. I see. Yeah, that makes sense.
That just about sums it up.
Disregard my earlier question. After spending a really long time laboriously hunting-and-pecking out my last post with two fingers, I was able to go back and look at the charts. Gold price just plunged vertically almost $20 in a second or so. On the news that the Fed will not raise rates now or any time very soon, but *may* raise them *someday*. Maybe. I see. Yeah, that makes sense.
So you're saying there's a chance...
If the US economy has theoretically been expanding, why is just about every economist forcasting a recession?
For the record, I think if the US economy goes into recession, it will be an improvement since I think we've been in a depression since 2008.
Should bring back that article discussing how the Fed bounces around intentionally to confuse and ultimately engineer the moves it wants. I tried a search but couldn't find it (bear in mind I have no techie patience). Excellent article.
Who was that moron talking about USD breaking out of that triangle/wedge consolidation it had going since early in the year?
Search for "jawboning".
You can almost hear the algos circuits whirring from here. "Wait a minute. That's not until December. That's 6,596,532,478,000 milliseconds away. that's forevah! We're going back in chips!"
they are not going to raise rates. all this talk is about trying to avoid nirp.
the fed is in the catbird seat, they have the inflation they want and they know when they will have it.only a few people bothered to look at those inflation trends yoy. there is plenty of inflation, their problem is the energy offset which is heavily skewed to the collapse of energy prices last january. in yoy comparisons you can start ignoring anything prioed in a year ago. energy since janyary has been fairly constaint, hence after january the you comparisons are no longer deep negative but neutral, and of course the rest if actually quite robust.
sometime around the first of the year the fed declares it has hit its 2% inflation targer and it raises 1/4 point. whats wrong with this picture, 1/4 hike, 2% inflation. the fed then procedded go get BEHIND the curve in raising rates, they'rea always safe with Wall Street that way..
the real problem is what happens if energy comes roaring back? what if oil returns to $100, you see that is a 100% increase, while it only dropped 50% in the first place. if we can manipulate gold we can manipulate energy. this is the age when price controls went from criminal to house arrest, and its a pretty nice house too.
for the fed its all unicorns and rainbows as far as the eye can see. janet yellen will be queen of america. this is so fucking easy even i could be fed chief. the problem though is that it has nothing to do with the economy, deficits sturctural employment problems wealth disparity gap and the role on entitlements in a jobless society but these people dont care about those things they just want to make sure the powerful get their share. meanwhile you get 2% on your savings accounts eaten up by 4% inflation.
they can milk that behind the curve argument for years. and they will. from an investment side i guess any business with pricing power but price controls on food and energy wouldnt surprise me, the genie is out of the bottle, richard m nixon rip.
The Fed is not in the catbird seat, it is sitting on a whoopee cushion...
Paul Eberhart had moderate growth
Earlier today I said it was risky to be buying stocks and waiting for Fed juice...just came back from lunch to see my prediction was correct. Stocks fell on the Fed. Unfortunately, gold fell, too, so the net benefit to me was zero. Given I sold half of my paper gold on the opening this morning as I indicated at the time, I'm looking to get back into accumulation mode tomorrow, depending upon the action. No more trading, today...
Words specially formulated for algo consumption to continue the rigging of well.....everything.
Instead of an "Audit the Fed Bill", maybe start with a "Change its Name Bill" - it is a private company, not a Federal Entity - the bellyaching that would go on just to name it correctly would be good theatre!
Gold really getting hammered now. I'm a buyer at the open tomorrow on any further weakness. I want to buy today, but my trading discipline requires I wait.
Bond yields are exploding, which will only exacerbate the $usd strength/buying. The BoJ is probably frothing at the mouth to buy UST in Asia later.
Sayonara to q-4 corporate earnings.
WTF?!
US 2Y Yield 0.695 +0.078 +12.59%TRAPPED
Here's a clip of the Fed's current position:
https://youtu.be/bQlpDiXPZHQ?t=27 But, no one's at the other end of the alarm!Markets back up, what's wrong FED, raise rates. Now what's your excuse.
LMFAO - expanding where? Oh right. Stuffing product in every channel/space out there with no sales out to the end user.
yellen = ponzi = madoff
FED SAYS U.S. ECONOMY `HAS BEEN EXPANDING AT A MODERATE PACE'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLm5oSJRxIU
I believe the ebonics translation is "Whadup my debt-slave biyatches?"
They phoned this one in. LOL. They don't know what to do. This is "what is all the stuff we need to say so we don't make it worse". They are out of the game. They will support stocks. That is all I can say for sure. They are going to watch for a while and put some salve on their burned hands.
This didn't sound "hawkish" to me at all. It sounded like the same old lie since Captain Kangaroo took office.
Captain Kangaroo with Mr. Moose
There are no central bank hawks left anywhere on Earth, today...and that includes the German ones.
"The Fed needs to raise to show that it can."
If so, then it will subsequently lower, and in doing so, show that it MUST...which sets the stage for something ugly.
No, but this time, we MEAN it! We really REALLY mean it. One day maybe very SOON, we might seriously just have to RAISE THE RATES one quarter point. NOT KIDDING, SERIOUSLY. you better listen to us because last time was your last WARNING before the LIFTOFF!
The Fed
I'm going to finish the trim work in the bathroom next month, maybe. Depends on whether there's a football game on when I'm ready or if I'm hungry or too horny or any other excuse for not doing it since 2009.
I should probably issue a monthly statement so people on Facebook can check on whether I've actually gone to the store to buy floor moldings.
I was going to do it in September, but the weather was too nice. October, too much football on TV. November, mmmm, World Series? Breeders' Cup? Oh, yeah, I've got to get ready for Thanksgiving. And forget December. Christmas shooping will take up far too much of my time. I need to buy three gifts: one for me, one for my only friend, and, oh, yeah, another one for me.
Who gives a FF...?!?
Oh it's on, it's on this time for real, happy christmas everyone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsFITs7MTn4
utter and complete BULLSHIT!
the only domestic growth is in the number of the unemployed and of the homeless...
hell, shops and restaurants in my upscale part of Lost Angels are closing left and right.
Ummm... so can someone tell me WHY the FED can't just decide to raise interest rates to 5% and let the markets adjust? They lowered rates to -0 and it didn't help anything at all. If I'm tying to do something and my methods don't have the desired outcome, I change my methods and see what happens. Obviously their interest lowering methods aren't achieving the desired ends, so DO SOMETHING ELSE!!!
As to recession/depression - if you throw a rock up in the air you keep your eye on the rock lest WHEN it comes back down it bash you in the face. AKA for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. They lowered rates, the economy that was going to Hell went there faster. So you stop throwing the freaking rocks!
IF they set interest rates at 5%, where's the bad? Oh... people would have to pay more for a house that they can't afford anyway? So who's buying the house at ZERO %?
Under the guiding Medical principle of Primum non nocere (first do no harm), I fail to see what harm 5% interest would do. And I suggest that it might do a lot of good as those stray dollars currently being tucked into mattresses all over the nation could maybe find their way into investments and give the economy a boost.
At this point, I'd suggest that the government begin an investigation to find out who turned off the oxygen on the bassinets that the members of the Fed were in when they were born.
They cant, here's why:
Because of how the currency is structured, and our place in it's natural life cycle.
The govt issues a debt.
The CB takes that debt and places its face value on its asset sheet.
Then the CB places a correspondingly equal and opposite entry on its liability sheet.
Voila! Currency has been created!
But the real value of the debt is not it's face value, the real value is face plus interest.
By maturity there will not be enough money to pay the debt.
1. Debt always exceeds the currency created from it.
2. It doesn't matter whether the Fed sells the debt... Whoever buys it will pay with variously dollars, dollar denominated assets, or dollar defined foreign currency.
3. Since the debt can't be paid, it must be rolled over. To be rolled over a new larger debt must be created, and new currency created from it.
4. The rollovers continue indefinitely.
5. Each rollover increases the portion of the debt that represents accumulated interest. And each roll-over shrinks the amount representing the real economy...at least until the currency has fully disseminated thru the economy.
6. The new money is spent by govt, bankers, and their cronies. They don't have to reinvest it in production, as others must. So their spending creates a virtual economy that would not exist otherwise, and therefore cannot be self sustaining.
7. This means the "real" portion of the economy in reality must pay the interest...which by definition becomes harder & harder to pay...until...2008.
8. When the interest cannot be serviced, the debt will default. In defaulting, the currency based on it simply ceases to exist....and not just the face value...but the face value plus interest until maturity.
9. The defaults, in turn, leave too little currency to pay other debts, causing them to default in turn...and so on.
We know how central bankers & gov't respond. They make up for debts that cannot be paid, by taking even bigger debts, and creating even more currency, to halt the cycle of defaults. But the price of doing this is to even further impair the real economy's ability to service the debt.
Inasmuch as Debt is expanding, we know these defaults are continuing.
And because normal economic conditions haven't returned, we know the real economy is not more able to service the debt than it was in 2008.
So an arbitrary rate rise...or any rise...Will be impossible to pay, and begin the cascade of defaults.
But won't they just consume the bubbles and then burn outout?
No.
Debt deflation continues until all unbacked credit is gone.
The dollar itself has no collateral, and is unbacked credit.
An interest rate rise post 2008 will lead inevitably to currency crisis.
They would like to raise interest with one hand...and print the money with which to pay it with the other.
But it is too large to do without detection.
Yet each day brings more business replacement by crony business...which all collapses once the money printing stops.