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S&P Set For Biggest Ever Monthly Point Gain As Central Banks Go All In
In the beginning of the month, when we showed that the NYSE short interest has risen to the highest level since July 2008, we said that this indicator either means that the market is poised for a crash as it did last time, or - more likely - would result in the biggest short squeeze in history.
We said that "either a central bank intervenes, or a massive forced buy-in event occurs, and unleashes the mother of all short squeezes, sending the S&P500 to new all time highs."
Since then two things have happened: one after another central bank did intervene, leading to the biggest VIX monthly drop in history...
... and yes, as Bank of America said, "It's Not A Risk-On Rally, This Is The Biggest Short Squeeze In Years."
So, where does that leave us?
While we still haven't taken out the all time highs said squeeze would lead to - there are about 30 points to go there; but as the following chart below shows, with just two trading days left, October is on pace for the biggest monthly point jump in S&P500 history.
... which courtesy of the earnings recession in the past two quarters, has pushed the market right beyond the point where back in May Janet Yellen said "valuations are quite high."
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Thats some serious Bullshit there!
Just keep tabs on the Bullshitters ... when its time for them to at last be held accountable, its showtime.
If this is it, it's the blowout. LEt's see hpw far the madness will go. Might en with an epic event.
Will unlimited stealth QE ever really matter?
i believe that the shorts are right thist time.
Yea dbl dn for the win
As a percentage it's not as extreme.
Notice most of those record months are in the last 15 years? That's also what proves global warming is true.
Biggest short squeeze in history and I was short...raspberries. I should feel good for being down <3%, basis my equity at the beginning of the month, which I've since cut in half via withdrawal. However, I simply hate losing money...
Even making money in August and September did not feel particularly good because I took a big hit in July and have recovered essentially none of it, net. For the year, meh...the risks involved in trading no longer seem worth it to me. Love to hear from a real winner out there, but my feeling is that such traders are getting rather rare and that their status as winners is probably transitory.
Im doing ok. mostly I play the long side something always wants to go up
Now where did I put that pin?
Add another chart with percent instead of points.
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Federal reserve manipulation gone wild, wilder, wildest?
Maybe not wildest... yet.
The biggest Federal Boner of all time... Inhale to the chief.
Crack-up boom?
When it comes to stimulating the stock markets, central bankers all remind me of John Blutarsky:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ep-xgd_eETE
And to think the catalyst for the biggest point gain in history was one of the worst job prints in recent memory and rescessionary surveys.
Reminds me of the Robot Chicken skit where the emperor sees the future and tells Darth Vader that the Empire would be destroyed by teddy bears.
Darth simply says, "That's it, I'm out. You aren't even trying anymore."
i have come to the conclusion that the only thing that will burst this bubble is a nuke exchange between the big boys. then your problems will be much bigger than selling out of the market
yellen smells like an outhouse!!
As Rickards says a QE4 coming in March 2016.
It is time to revisit the issue of complacency and whether we have been lulled into such a state by the extraordinary actions central banks and governments have taken since 2008. In what most of us view as a fast moving world many people have come to think if a financial crisis doesn't occur today or in the next few weeks it is simply not going to happen at all.
The much loved theory that we will be able to grow our way out of our difficulties and muddle through is a bit simplistic and much overused. Artificially low FED controlled interest rates are a massive "one-off" or onetime tailwind that should be considered mainly behind us. The article below delves into why such a policy is bringing diminishing returns.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2015/10/complacency-in-face-of-slowing-economy.html