This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Bitcoin Soars Near Highest Since 2014 As China Outflows Accelerate

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For the past few weeks we have been detailing the tightening of China capital controls and what that may mean for Bitcoin (most recently here). It appears the outflows (that offshore Yuan weakness relative to onshore Yuan suggests) are accelerating as Bitcoin just traded above $314 (up from around $200 when we first warned about China as an upside drive in BTC's price) - near the highest since December 2014.

Perhaps today's acceleration is on the heels of The Fed statement and expectations of a response from China...

Notably look at the consistently increasing volume (lower panel) reinforcing this surge.

 

As we recently concluded, the last week or two suggest, perhaps more importantly, that China easing (and outflows implict from further devaluation) now appears to go straight to Bitcoin.

As Overstock's Chairman noted previously: gold is great, but tough to transport; thus, forcing Chinese into Bitcoin as we previously explained:

As we concluded previously, while China is doing everything in its power to not give the impression that it is panicking, the truth is that it is one viral capital outflow report away from an outright scramble to enforce the most draconian capital controls in its history, which - as every Cypriot and Greek knows by now - is a self-defeating exercise and assures an ever accelerating decline in the currency, which authorities are trying to both keep stable while also devaluing at a pace of their choosing. Said pace never quite works out.

 

So what happens then: well, China's propensity for gold is well-known. We would not be surprised to see a surge of gold imports into China, only instead of going to the traditional Commodity Financing Deals we have written extensively about before, where gold is merely a commodity used to fund domestic carry trades, it ends up in domestic households.

 

However, while gold has historically been the best store of value in history and has outlasted every currency known to man, it is problematic when it comes to transferring funds in and out of a nation - it tends to show up quite distinctly on X-rays.

 

Which is why we would not be surprised to see another push higher in the value of bitcoin: it was earlier this summer when the digital currency, which can bypass capital controls and national borders with the click of a button, surged on Grexit concerns and fears a Drachma return would crush the savings of an entire nation. Since then, BTC has dropped (in no small part as a result of the previously documented "forking" with Bitcoin XT), however if a few hundred million Chinese decide that the time has come to use bitcoin as the capital controls bypassing currency of choice, and decide to invest even a tiny fraction of the $22 trillion in Chinese deposits in bitcoin (whose total market cap at last check was just over $3 billion), sit back and watch as we witness the second coming of the bitcoin bubble, one which could make the previous all time highs in the digital currency, seems like a low print.

Read more details on how to smuggle $10 million out of China (and why that is stopping) here...

 

Charts: Bitcoinwisdom.com

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:42 | 6726008 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Great! The NSA/CIA will finally be self funded.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:44 | 6726024 highandwired
highandwired's picture

Great!  Another ignoramus

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:49 | 6726061 highandwired
highandwired's picture

Stupid people think that NSA/CIA is not self-funded now...morons

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:56 | 6726100 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

Why does the BTC crowd resort to name calling when their itty bitty fellings get hurt?

Must have bought in at the $800-$1,100 point.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:20 | 6726249 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Why does the anti-bitcoin crowd feel the need to spread lies?

Does bitcoin hurt their itty bitty feelings, so they need to act like catty bitches?

Grow the fuck up.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:52 | 6726351 coinhead
coinhead's picture

Bitcoin kills borders DEAD!

...and besides just borders, blockchain technology can also kill election fraud dead too!  Many (most?) western elections are manipulated frauds.  We can vote using colour coins on a sidechain, or election chain and see the results in real time.  No more use for Diebold machines.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:00 | 6726453 itchy166
itchy166's picture

Backpage.com has stopped accepting credit cards and only sells advertisements for Bitcoin - two new clients yesterday buying my Bitcoin - both escorts :)

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:15 | 6726511 coinhead
coinhead's picture

...the price action just shows how under-owned Bitcoin, the world's most powerful currency is.  A few wealthy Chinese buyers can make Bitcoin $100 or $2000 in a matter of days.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 15:57 | 6727426 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Bitcoin is soaring in China but not for the reason Tyler thinks. It;s soaring because a Russian Ponzi is now the rage in China and people are using Bitcoin to get in. 30 million users and climbing:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/new/?count=100&after=t3_3qoht6

 

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 02:21 | 6729655 itchy166
itchy166's picture

I can't match your statement to any of the stories in the Riddit link - care to elaborate a bit?

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:58 | 6726441 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

What lies have I spread?

You're telling me all the ZH BTC fanatics didnt purchase some if not all of their BTC above the current price.

Nigger, please.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:05 | 6726474 coinhead
coinhead's picture

...so you have sold all your gold & silver now because it's not $1900 and $48/ounce?

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 16:57 | 6727736 TheSecondLaw
TheSecondLaw's picture

Purchased all (40 btc) of mine at $40 - $100.  Sold all at $ 650.   Rebought another 40 $110.  Been holding ever since.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 17:16 | 6727821 Pseudonymous
Pseudonymous's picture

Are you sure about that? BTC hasn't traded on exchanges for $110 since it was $650.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:24 | 6726269 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yes, the Fonestar Brigade had their heads handed to them just like gold and silver holders did when they said it "could never happen to BTC".

Bitcoin has been slaughtered for two years now, and is still down over 70% from its highs.

 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:32 | 6726318 shitco.in
shitco.in's picture

Shhh. Don't tell people about the sale. We still want cheap coins. 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:34 | 6726326 coinhead
coinhead's picture

fonestar is still here.  fonestar is still telling you that Bitcoin is going to six figures!

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:41 | 6726353 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Hey pal. Good luck to you. At least you've been consistent through the whole ride, up and down.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:44 | 6726366 coinhead
coinhead's picture

If you are worried about Bitcoin's volatility fine.  Then don't sink tens of thousands of dollars into it.  $50 and you will still have more Bitcoins than pretty much everyone on planet Earth and you will learn alot about networking, distributed computing and cryptography.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:19 | 6726525 83_vf_1100_c
83_vf_1100_c's picture

  Like I have time to delve into arcane tech geek stuff. I run a biz and a family and maintain 8-ish vehicles and 5+ acres of property and ad infinitum. Learning all that is great if so inclined and you live in Mom's basement and have nothing better to do.

  Stack those btc 1s and 0s brother! When the lights go out we will see who wins*.

 

* The 0.1% wins but some of us PM bugs hope to catch a few crumbs and survive.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:23 | 6726547 coinhead
coinhead's picture

"Like I have time to delve into arcane tech geek stuff."

I've met many of the original tech "geeks" who got into M$, IBM, Cisco and more in the early days.  Let's just say that they are not maintaining vehicles anymore, someone else does that for them.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:37 | 6726335 tmosley
tmosley's picture

It's not about the dollar price. It's about the ability to evade capital controls, something ZH is woefully unprepared for.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:39 | 6726343 coinhead
coinhead's picture

Hey "bunghole" you're a dope.  You call teh we "a shill" and here you are trying to scare people out of the world's most powerful currency?  What a fucking joke....

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:50 | 6726360 White Mountains
White Mountains's picture

BungHole - in the last 3 years BitCoin went from $10 to over $300 now.

Fixed it for you.  Put that in your BungHole and smoke it.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:55 | 6726427 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

And of course you got in at $10.

Mmmmmmmkay.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:09 | 6726488 coinhead
coinhead's picture

fonestar got in at $16 and lots of ZH readers got in before that.  Go back and look at the archives and see for yourself.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 13:02 | 6726711 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

Print us the linkss.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 09:19 | 6730253 Morbid
Morbid's picture

i highly doubt it matters much at which point one gets in. i personally not into doom and gloom fear based scenario which is rather popular here. the cabal is being overthrown as we read all this so imho lights wont go off. we will be continuing using the www so crypto is most probably here to stay.

consider redistributing your wealth and check out this new btc plastic card payment system from www.xapo.com. its worth checking out this tech. good luck and keep an opened mind ya'all!

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:37 | 6726609 White Mountains
White Mountains's picture

Nope - I got in at $70.  Damn, my bad, bungboy

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:43 | 6726015 blabam
blabam's picture

Long BTC, bawnds, phyz silver and gold miners. 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:47 | 6726018 herkomilchen
herkomilchen's picture

Bitcoin, bitchez.  Sound money offers the benefits of sound money, in whatever form it comes.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:50 | 6726062 Fahque Imuhnutjahb
Fahque Imuhnutjahb's picture

 

 

I've always wanted money that was reliant on the power grid, now I have peace of mind.

Granted it's a small piece, for a small mind, but a piece none the less.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:56 | 6726101 commander gruze?
commander gruze?'s picture

Just print your bitcoin wallet on paper and stop whinging already.
https://www.bitaddress.org

 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:08 | 6726182 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Where upon it will be just another piece of paper.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:22 | 6726256 shitco.in
shitco.in's picture

Use the Brainwallet feature and BIP38. Problem solved. 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:44 | 6726367 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

A programmed generation....cyber bits and printed paper tokens...smh

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 04:18 | 6727726 commander gruze?
commander gruze?'s picture

Where upon it will be just another piece of paper.

Facepalm. Hint: it's not about the paper, it's about what's on that paper - the private key. Jaysus, people, just when are you going to educate yourselves and stop making such fundamental gaffes when debating bitcoin.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:02 | 6726142 xrxs
xrxs's picture

If there's no power grid, lead, brass and steel might be the metals du jour.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:10 | 6726494 Pseudonymous
Pseudonymous's picture

Tungsten. Both for for fake gold and for armor piercing ammo.

After all, the imagined scenario that makes Bitcoin unusable is not just "grid down", but full-blown reversion to pre-20-th century technology, where every single piece of electronic and electric equipment is inoperable. The technology and amount of electric energy needed to make a Bitcoin transaction is comparable to what you would need for a non-destructive check of a gold or silver bar or coin.

I think you would have to purposely run away from technology and civilization in order to get to a place where you won't be able to find the tools needed for either a Bitcoin transaction or a gold/silver transaction.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:15 | 6726513 herkomilchen
herkomilchen's picture

Agreed.  No one is dissing phys.  Gold/silver is as important a sound money to hold as bitcoin, especially for TEOTWAWKI scenarios with no electricity to be found.

But if, just if, there isn't a collapse to the level of cavemen, just a collapse of fiat currency, an abandonment of officially sanctioned markets, and a general decline of government viability (e.g., Venezuela++), then the benefits of distance money transfer for underground economies will make bitcoin uniquely useful as money in a way that gold is not.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:26 | 6726568 83_vf_1100_c
83_vf_1100_c's picture

"just a collapse of fiat currency"

So then, what do you exchange your 1s and 0s for? I'll give the BTCBugs their due. It shows promise.  The Continental fiat once did also. Only time will tell if it goes big or goes home. Some will win, some will lose. Good luck brave BTC warriors. Come home rich or carried upon your shield.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:47 | 6726049 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

All this shows me is that BTC is just another securitized football to throw around in this bankster version of "Shenannigans".

Gold is money and nothing else.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:54 | 6726091 commander gruze?
commander gruze?'s picture

Why not instead of throwing assumptions left and right educate yourself? I know, it's a radical approach, but may actually help you more informed decisions.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:04 | 6726164 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

My assumption is that without power or the internet, a bunch of 1s and 0s scribbled on a piece of paper won't suffice for money. Another is that the BTC exchanges are a 3rd party risk.

My conclusion is gold is money and nothing else. I will grant one exemption....silver is pretty damn close.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:10 | 6726194 vq1
vq1's picture

why did gold just get murdered today?

 

Not asking sarcastically, serious question. Im hoping its because people believe the fed is actually going to raise rates in dec. 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:12 | 6726202 blabam
blabam's picture

@vq1

Dollar up, gold down. 

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:27 | 6726285 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yeah, that's it.

Where do you fuckan simpletons come from anyway?

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:42 | 6726359 blabam
blabam's picture

Yeah because the two or totally not connected. Oh right, only manipulation moves gold. 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:50 | 6726395 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I didn't say that, you did. History does not support your argument. The USD has moved up and down with gold before.

Everything is manipulated, including BTC.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:57 | 6726435 blabam
blabam's picture

Sure, but a short term move like yesterday can be easily explained by the rising dollar + some specs dumping on FOMC "hawkishness". 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:25 | 6726277 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Your 1s and 0s will work when you flee your radioactive homeland for someplace untouched by EMP or the nukes that will surely rain down alongside it. If you want to haul your gold, I suggest you get it with rounded edges to avoid discomfort when you shove it up your ass as you cross each border.

Gold exchanges have a third party risk to. Like gold, you can exchange bitcoins without an exchange.

But don't let the facts distract you from the feeling of sliding lumps of gold up your ass. Need to get it firmly seated in there. Wouldn't want them to fall out at an inopportune time.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:30 | 6726300 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

What is wrong with you these days bro? Bashing gold?

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:38 | 6726340 tmosley
tmosley's picture

How am I bashing gold?

Did you get hit in the head?

How else are you supposed to get it across a border? You KNOW they are going to be scanning for it, and confiscating it.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:47 | 6726378 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I have been scanned and taken gold and silver through airports and across borders for 4 or 5 years now.

I have never had a problem. Always up front and honest about it with secuity officials. Stop the fearmongering please.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:41 | 6726625 herkomilchen
herkomilchen's picture

That's because officials gave you their permission.  They let you.  He's obviously taking about a scenario where conditions have worsened from today and gold is banned.  Maybe not much longer yet as NIRP enforcement becomes a priority.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 13:12 | 6726759 SumTing Wong
SumTing Wong's picture

I cross borders with gold and silver al the time. I use junk silver, and I usually have a handful of "presidenial dollars" with some half ounce AGEs thrown in. I've never been asked about them. Ever.

I always have a roll of Mercury dimes on me just in case. I have been stopped when I had two rolls at the airport. The nice TSA thugs, "Couldn't see behind them on the x-ray scanner" and asked me to remove them and have the bag rescanned. Lesson learned and easily overcome. 

My wife has some nice "family heirloom" jewelry also. One just happens to be a gold chain with a 1 oz AGE coin on the inside. None of the dumbfucks knows to even look for the date on it...I think it is 1993. There are the pendants with old $5 gold pieces on them, etc. You can get away with a lot if you hide things right out in the open.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:13 | 6726973 To Infinity And...
To Infinity And Beyond's picture

He has a lot of Bitcoin to sell that he bought at $1100.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:35 | 6726330 nuubee
nuubee's picture

Too many people presume a total loss of civilization. There is no history that backs up this notion of a "bartertown" level of human existence.

When Rome fell, you still had the roads, and in many cases the buildings. People still fought wars the same way. We didn't forget how to make swords, or build buildings, etc.. Yes, progress stalled for a few centuries, but it did not back up much.

That's what you should expect from an economic collapse and subsequent wars. You should not be expecting to have no electricity, no internet, and no modern economy. Read what happened in Argentina if you really think I'm blowing smoke up your ass. They still have electricity, internet, etc.. They simply live with a slightly-broken-down socio-economic situation but all the modern stuff is still there.

This "you'll have no internet" after "the collapse" is just pure fearmongering.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:38 | 6726613 herkomilchen
herkomilchen's picture

Nailed it.  Fiat and government collapse lead to some nasty turmoil, but people do not run around demolishing their own infrastructure.  Even if bombed to a moonscape by a foreign aggressor, people just promptly rebuild modern infrastructure, starting with electricity.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 13:08 | 6726737 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

We've also never had a global just-in-time delivery system before.  And when Rome fell, the prospect of feeding ones family was a little different then now where most people have no f'n idea how to plant a garden that can actually feed them - let alone how to preserve and store it - if they even have the space to do so.

I've had my local grid go down for a week at a time, and it is VERY illuminating.  Try watering an orchard with a hand-pumped well humping buckets and you'll see what I mean. . . 

As far as "just promptly rebuilding" modern infrastructure and retaining civilized behavior - ask Selco about how civilized Bosnia was during their year-long crisis.

Hell, New Orleans still isn't back to its pre-Katrina state.  Thank you I'll keep preparing for the worst, hope for the best, and sleep more soundly knowing that I've got some insurance. 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:13 | 6726895 nuubee
nuubee's picture

Again, look at Argentina. They were a net-food-exporter at the time of their economic collapse. Yes, people starved because of the devaluation of the currency, but the civilization did not implode.

 

Also, don't presume that people who like bitcoin don't also like and hold PMs, most do. Some of us have just actually looked into bitcoin and realized that it is the future of money.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 15:02 | 6727173 Pseudonymous
Pseudonymous's picture

It would be different in remote/sparsely populated areas vs. more densely populated areas. When it comes to transacting in Bitcoin, all you need is a laptop or smartphone, a very small solar panel and a backup satellite or radio link.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:38 | 6726338 MoonSun
MoonSun's picture

If there is a blackout in several world areas, the difficulty of the Bitcoin network automatically adjusts downwards to maintain the monetary base at the expected rate. 

Bitcoin is actually quite clever.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:35 | 6726602 83_vf_1100_c
83_vf_1100_c's picture

  When the SHTF those in charge of the money will abscond with all they can carry. BTC is software. There are people who are very good at hacking software. Then there are the BTC exchange managers who own the code to the software and when there is no reason to fear the law, they will abscond with all you 1s and 0s. I personally do not plan to run. I'll die here in a pile of empty brass or puking my internals out from rad exposure.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 13:15 | 6726778 SumTing Wong
SumTing Wong's picture

Given the chickens and rabbits, the pigs, goats, cows, the gardens and orchards, I am also standing my ground as long as I can. And there are others who have been invited t the old bunker to help me defend it. They have specific skills that will be useful in getting us to the other side. It is called community.

None of us have BTC. We have knowledge, tools, and at least one of us has PMs to help us all make it.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:17 | 6726226 RedDwarf
RedDwarf's picture

Money is whatever the free market decides it is.  Gold has properties that make it really great for use as money, but it is not the One and Only True Money.  That is absurd.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 18:19 | 6728116 Jizz
Jizz's picture

Every ZH wiseass and old gold crank on their soapbox should shut up for a bit, listen and learn. Start with the talk Andreas M. Antonopoulos gave at Harvard on the history of money and why Bitcoin may be the best form of money humanity has invented.

http://youtu.be/TkO9hxVv4lU

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:52 | 6726073 xrxs
xrxs's picture

Most bitcoin transacitons are done in Yuan, 70%.  They have a number of exchanges in China, and BTC is well known.  Smallish market cap at the moment ~4bil, 14 mlilion bitcoins mined out of 21 mil total.  Hopefully some of that Macau GDP makes its way into BTC.  Could be a nice ride up.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:15 | 6726222 mtl4
mtl4's picture

I'd definitely believe that........have a look at this website and you can see exactly how much buying is really coming from over there, simply amazing!

 

http://fiatleak.com/

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:25 | 6726270 shitco.in
shitco.in's picture

This site simply displays "buying" as exchange activity. Most bitcoin volume consists of traders and bots. Chinse exchanges are 0 fees, which is more attractive for traders. 

Yes, there is definitely more bitcoin buying going on in China than the west. But Fiatleak does not accurately display this. 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:39 | 6726348 xrxs
xrxs's picture

That's a good point.  You really don't need to involve an exchange to transact bitcoin - it can all be done informally.  So, exchange volume may be a good heuristic for aggregate inflows, but doesn't represent all.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:45 | 6726375 shitco.in
shitco.in's picture

Click on the "all time" option on top of this page:

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Those may be better metrics to take into consideration, along with exchange volume of course. 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:52 | 6726081 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Glad we bought and sat on account. We'll sell when it hits higher returns. 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:34 | 6726309 shitco.in
shitco.in's picture

The time to "sell" is when the "value" of BTC is recognized in Satoshis, and not priced against fiat anymore. 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:57 | 6726109 RazorForex
RazorForex's picture

Bitcoin is great, but there are a few other digital currencies that should not be ignored!

http://www.reddit.com/r/gridcoin, you can thank me later!

https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_grc

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:57 | 6726111 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Why is it that the majority of merchants that accept Bitcoin sell high margin garbage like custom tshirts and kooky coffee mugs?

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:58 | 6726117 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Google, bitcoin server farming. 

Mining for Bitcoins in Iceland - Video - NYTimes.com

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:17 | 6726232 Fahque Imuhnutjahb
Fahque Imuhnutjahb's picture

 

 

Since there is such a glut in the aluminium market, many of the Icelandic smelters could start bitcoin mining.

Maybe it'd become so profitable that excess Al capacity would be idled and stable supply/demand dynamic

would return.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 10:59 | 6726121 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Fed says nothing the entire world doesn't already know.
Bitcoin up over $300. Gold down $40. Something does not add up. As usual. I'm starting to think Bitcoin is a Trojan Horse.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:19 | 6726248 Squatr
Squatr's picture

From humble anonymous beginnings to parity with real currency to legit store of value for commies. Something does indeed not add up. I've met a few of BTCs boots on the ground in europe and whew let me tell you they are as shadowy and mischievous as any other money changer.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:29 | 6726295 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Right, I'm sure it has nothing to do with the blatent and ongoing manipulation of the gold market via the dilution of real gold with paper, something that you can't do with bitcoin at any significant scale (just plain too many exchanges which require instant "physical" delivery).

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:01 | 6726135 shitco.in
shitco.in's picture

No mention of the spread between Chinese and western exchanges? That's more than relevant to this story. 

The chart is of BitStamp, which would not display capital outflows from China. The BitStamp chart would actually more accurately display those outflows being "cashed out" at a lower price. 

For China:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/huobi/btccny

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/okcoin/btccny

Current price is 2069 CNY ($325.39) in China, where as BitStamp is $315. 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:03 | 6726154 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

Bitcoin also is replacing Visa & Mastercard

since the latter decided to regulate public "morality".

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2015/07/caving-government-pressure-visa-an...

https://ihb.io/2015-07-02/news/bitcoin-for-backpage-19558

 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:53 | 6726284 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

Apparently, by ignoring legal conventions of impartiality,

forcing greater anonymity to the advertisers (including any potential traffickers),

and pushing low-end sex workers into streetwalking because of advertising impediments,

the banks providing credit cards expect the public to now believe that banksters

actually do have ethical standards.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:13 | 6726208 Squatr
Squatr's picture

Am I missing something when I assume that the instrinsic value of bitcoin derives not from its algorithmic aesthetics but because 'young professionals' use it to buy mind altering drugs? As a store of value I can think of better alternatives...

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:17 | 6726230 shitco.in
shitco.in's picture

The intrinsic value of bitcoin can be argued to be derived from many factors (power consumption, mining hashpower, network security, etc), but for the sake of argument let's just assume that the intrinsic value is purely based on perception of value in that asset class by investors. 

Bitcoin has many uses other than what you suggested. If you alter your perception you may see other value in bitcoin, as many others have. 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:51 | 6726403 Squatr
Squatr's picture

I do concede the factors that have led to its adoption are many and impressive at that, with functions and possibilities that are unmatched by most everything else coupled with a genuinely driven community, regulated supply and such but...something seems off.  The abstract nature of the assumptions which BTC rides on are as volatile as any prepper with gold denominated stores or FIAT speculator. To the point where it makes discussion on the topic, at least to myself, unpermissible.

the framework for its success, is not wholly there but I suspect it is nevertheless the future. I do wish the youth all the best.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 13:57 | 6726910 Pseudonymous
Pseudonymous's picture

The assumptions come down to an open community of geeks using methods which are almost entirely in the digital realm (except the electrical energy used) rather than the physical realm in order to achieve security through a combination of voluntary cooperation and a bit of secrecy (just for the private keys in the wallet) rather than through physical means (protecting physical assets with weapons or by hiding them).

It is good enough that the digital realm is very different from the physical realm and so the sets of risks you have in the two realms are very different. It enables good diversification.

Better yet, I would argue that defending from adversaries (whatever form they may take) is better done in the digital realm where only truth, information and knowledge is what counts, rather than in the physical realm where preexisting power structures and resources count for a lot.

In other words, in the digital world it is possible to create something which is far less vulnerable to theft, destruction or control compared to anything that is purely in the physical world. And that is a vision that a lot of people hold and strive to apply in practice.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:30 | 6726302 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yeah, and gold is used by ISIS terrorists.

See how that works?

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:31 | 6726313 Not_Pictured
Not_Pictured's picture

The 'intrinsic value' if such a concept makes sense, is found in the fact that bitcoin can't be controlled, can't be inflated, is permissionless and upgradeable. Gold has properties that make it good money, bitcoin has most of those same features with the addition of a few more.

 

If you believe gold is good money, but not bitcoin, you need to try to figure out why you feel that way. Sure, it's weaker to total mad max collapse than gold, but arguably gold is weak to rice in such a scenrio.

 

In addition you can walk across boarders butt naked with a finger up your ass while carrying it in your head. Unlike gold.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:05 | 6726936 To Infinity And...
To Infinity And Beyond's picture

Why, can you say Mt Gox?

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:36 | 6726333 xrxs
xrxs's picture

Think for a moment about the remittance market.  Bitcoin could be totally disruptive there.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:15 | 6726217 cluelessminion
cluelessminion's picture

I tried a couple of years ago to buy some bitcoins for internet purchases.  I didn't understand it then and I don't really get it now but had I bought some when I was researching it I would have made money.  I am an older person without much money so something like bitcoin made me uneasy.  I know that it's the internet age and all but I think ppl are moving way too fast and investing too much trust in electronic, communication based commerce.  And that is what bitcoin is.  Has anyone ever wondered what would happen if there was an electrical grid failure?  No internet!!  It's that simple.  We still live in a physical world and people simply have too much faith in what they see on the screens that are now omnipresent.   

 

I truly think bitcoin is a massive setup and I feel kind of bad for the chinese because they're being forced to invest in something that is completely untested.  I think they're being set up.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:35 | 6726328 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Right, because everyone knows that the world is on one big power grid, and the God-Emperor Obama can shut it all down with his mind, which is beyond the ken of mortal men.

Clueless is right. They aren't being forced into bitcoin, they are using it to evade capital controls, which is its primary purpose. If you need to flee the country one day, say due to radioactive fallout, which would you prefer? A colon packed with gold (because of course they confiscate all valuables at the border), or being your own bank, and thus having access to your funds anywhere where there is power and an internet connection (ie the rest of the world).

FUD. It ain't just an incompetent hunter with a speech impediment.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:31 | 6726585 Pseudonymous
Pseudonymous's picture

Do a mental calculation of the risk you are talking about.

Take the probability of there being no electricity for you and/or your internet provider (by the way, you can almost entirely mitigate that with a backup energy source (like battery/generator/solar) + satellite or radio connection backup); multiply that by your daily losses due to opportunity costs like lost business that depended on Bitcoin; multiply that by the number of days you expect such conditions to persist.

Now compare that to all the other risks in life. Does it even come close?

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:25 | 6726271 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

If the bitch Blythe Masters is in BTC I will by definition not be.

http://www.coindesk.com/former-jp-morgan-exec-blythe-masters-swaps-wall-...

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:36 | 6726332 tmosley
tmosley's picture

She used to be in gold and silver. Did you not mess with that stuff during that time?

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:39 | 6726347 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

She was never able to turn paper ounces into the real thing and so she was an eventual failure.  BTC is 100% virtual and so she will have much greater success there.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:48 | 6726383 shitco.in
shitco.in's picture

And who says that her company has plans to turn paper bitcoin into the "real thing"? As far as I can tell, she is involved in blockchain technology and uses very precise verbal gymnastics to dance around the specific word "bitcoin". 

Then there's that thing called a blockchain, which bitcoin is based off of. The very nature of the technology itself prevents against "paper fraud", so I'm not sure what your argument is? 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:01 | 6726422 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

Her specialty is the manipulation of markets and I am sure she will find a way to corrupt your precious blockchain since it is virtual 100%.  Anything created by man or woman can be corupted by them also.  It's only a matter of creativity.  I'd bet odds that your blockchain will look radically different from what it is now in a few years or not exist at all because it has been replaced by something "better".  Gold will still be gold in 1000 years.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:07 | 6726481 shitco.in
shitco.in's picture

Our blockchain will look exactly the same. Any private blockchian she decides to use may look radically different. 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:01 | 6726493 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

And REPLACE yours because it's better.  Really you bitcoin and blockchain types are laughable.  You're the first group of technogeeks who think that technology won't change and the old won't become obsolete.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 15:24 | 6727257 Pseudonymous
Pseudonymous's picture

If Bitcoin was replaced by something better those who now hold the currency (BTC) wouldn't just lose value or the current features and desirable characteristics of Bitcoin.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:21 | 6726531 herkomilchen
herkomilchen's picture

She can only manipulate markets when she has government guns backing her.  Bitcoin don't care about government guns.  She can't manipulate math.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:57 | 6726436 ultraticum
ultraticum's picture

Blythe hates Bitcoin and everything it stands for.  She says it all the time.  The bitch is only another mee-too bankster copying Bitcoin's "blockchain" innovation to be used in a totally "centralized" way for her bankster ilk to be able to say they're evolving from their 1950's transaction technology.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:56 | 6726432 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

She was in paper gold and silver and no I did not mess with those.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:10 | 6726958 Pseudonymous
Pseudonymous's picture

Well, we don't mess with her private company.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:26 | 6726282 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Put your money into a currency backed by - electrons!

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:28 | 6726292 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Will trade block chain beanie baby for food.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:44 | 6726371 jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

Propaganda at it's finest

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:47 | 6726380 White Mountains
White Mountains's picture

About 99% of anti-bitcoin blather is mouthed by people who don't really even know what BitCoin is.  LOL.

Shut the f-up when you don't haven't a clue about what you are talking about - it only makes you look dumb.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:09 | 6726489 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

Technology always moves forward and the latest and greatest is ALWAYS replaced.  BTC and the blockchain will be also.  To deny that is just sticking your head in the sand.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:14 | 6726975 Pseudonymous
Pseudonymous's picture

Who's denying this?

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:02 | 6726927 To Infinity And...
To Infinity And Beyond's picture

hey Mr f-up, explain Mt Gox to me.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:08 | 6726950 All Out Of Bubblegum
All Out Of Bubblegum's picture

Paper gold markets means that gold itself is a ripoff. That's your argument.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:15 | 6726978 Pseudonymous
Pseudonymous's picture

MF Global. A Corzining.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 15:54 | 6727412 painlord-2k
painlord-2k's picture

If you give your gold to someone else; if you give your cash to someone else; if you give your car to someone else; if you give your woman to someone else.
Well, if you do, you take the chances they never return them to you.
Better not do it.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 11:53 | 6731125 White Mountains
White Mountains's picture

Mt Gox was just a company, like many in any field, that went corrupt and died.  What's your point?

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:51 | 6726402 All Out Of Bubblegum
All Out Of Bubblegum's picture

I was on this board some years ago and gave away some bitcoin when it was at ~$20. I'm glad to see that the buggy whip investors are still here bitching about the internal combustion engine.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 11:52 | 6726406 ultraticum
ultraticum's picture

1993:  what is the world-wide-web and why should I care?

2015:  what is bitcoin and why should I care?

 

The cult-statists will sadly (for them) never devise a fool proof way to [censor/prohibit/confiscate - pick one] cryptographically secure, voluntary, decentralized, peer-to-peer transactions using open source code. Bitcoin could do to bankers and their governments what the internet did to travel agents.

Bank on math, bitchez.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 12:01 | 6731163 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Swap AOL for world-wide-web and you would have a rhetorically valid contention.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 16:31 | 6726529 Squatr
Squatr's picture

k

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 12:46 | 6726653 Fenix
Fenix's picture

On reddit someone posted that there is a big Ponzi scheme going on at the moment in China which uses bitcoin: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3qpskf/psa_be_careful_the_mmm_... Maybe THAT is the reason for increased demand, who knows ...

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 13:11 | 6726756 All Out Of Bubblegum
All Out Of Bubblegum's picture

There'a an even bigger global Ponzi scheme using paper gold and fiat in endless supply. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins when all is said and done.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 13:45 | 6726875 MoHillbilly
MoHillbilly's picture

I know nothing about this, so this is a honest question. Why will there only be 21 million bit coins? Who or what determines that and why can't more exist.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 13:58 | 6726915 zibrus
zibrus's picture

To MoHillbilly, and others.

 

Google search for "bitcoin satoshi whitepaper". Read it. It explains the math. You're going to want to understand how it works and why it works in order to understand how revolutionary it is in monetary/payment systems.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:06 | 6726940 All Out Of Bubblegum
All Out Of Bubblegum's picture

Bitcoin is an interconnected series of algorithms. The outcome of one algorithm is the input for the next one. One of the bedrocks of the Bitcoin network is that there will only be 21 million bitcoins as the network progresses. It's written into the code of Bitcoin. If someone tries to change their software to claim they have bitcoins that they don't own, they won't be able to connect to the network.

I'm oversimplifying but that's it in a nutshell. Bitcoin will keep working as long as the internet does. If the internet isn't working, it means the banks aren't either and we have bigger problems than losing bitcoins. That's what gold, silver and lead are for.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:38 | 6727073 Pseudonymous
Pseudonymous's picture

Anything that is created outside of the rules for creation of bitcoins (as written in software) is not a bitcoin but something else. And this is evident for everyone's Bitcoin software client. A so called Bitcoin 'full node' (software anyone can run on a regular desktop computer) makes a full check on the whole data and makes sure every single piece of bitcoin in existence has been created properly (through mining work and following the rules).

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 15:41 | 6727347 painlord-2k
painlord-2k's picture

The blockchain, the ledger of bitcoins, is public and replicated on every full node.
Every block added to the blockchain is verified by every node independently, when the node receive the block.
Only valid transactions can be included. If a non valid transaction is included, the block is invalid and discarded by the node.
The creation of new coins is just a special transaction without input, just outputs.
All full nodes will verify the block before adding it to THEIR copy of the blockchain. If the new block created more or less bitcoins than allowed it would be discarded by all full nodes.

Every full node will always wait until a valid block is found. Then it will add the validated block to its local blockchain.

There is no voting on the validity of a block. Every full node can check the validity of a block presented.
If there are two (or more) competing chains the longest (the chain with more PoW - Proof of Work) will be considered the valid one (but only after all its blocks are verified and valid).

 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:07 | 6726943 Fenix
Fenix's picture

Yeah, I agree, but that global Ponzi is not ready to crash yet.

Actually few months ago Litecoin price increased to $8 and then crashed back to ~ $2. Ponzi scheme in China was blamed for that, there was some evidence. Of course it is much more easy to manipulate Litecoin than Bitcoin.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 13:08 | 6726738 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

There is one difference between BitCoin and Fiat Currency - after the economic collapse they will be equal in value, but only one can be used as toilet paper!

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 13:45 | 6726876 adr
adr's picture

Here's the problem. If you want to use something as a medium of exchange it should be stable. Bitcoin isn't.

For the most part Bitcoin has been nothing but a speculative instrument and get rich quick scheme.

It would be great to buy in at a low price and then sell higher when you want out. The problem with Bitcoin has always been getting out.

 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:00 | 6726921 zibrus
zibrus's picture

Buy now @ $300, sell later @ $1000. Not hard. Bitcoin is going back above 1000 easy peasy. It's had a long consolidation down at 200.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 15:00 | 6727168 painlord-2k
painlord-2k's picture

If the future resemble the past, it will not stop at 1K very long.
There are only other 6 millions BTcs to be mined in the future. And 1 M will be mined in the next year before the  halving.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 15:00 | 6727169 painlord-2k
painlord-2k's picture

If the future resemble the past, it will not stop at 1K very long.
There are only other 6 millions BTcs to be mined in the future. And 1 M will be mined in the next year before the  halving.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 13:59 | 6726917 To Infinity And...
To Infinity And Beyond's picture

I think the only people who like Bitcoin are the ones that bought at crazy prices and need someone to unload onto someone.
A fad thats based on 1's and 0's. It's literally nothing. At least fiat currency requires some paper and ink.
Then there's the unfortunate fact that the ledger will become so big it will take gigabites to maintain. Those who own it will either need super computers to download it or rely on holding companies that can disapppear overnight.

Silly kids. 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:19 | 6726991 All Out Of Bubblegum
All Out Of Bubblegum's picture

> "A fad thats based on 1's and 0's."

 

That's what Krugman said about the internet too.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:22 | 6727004 To Infinity And...
To Infinity And Beyond's picture

As you said "you bought early", but you have to convince us to buy high.. Good luck with that.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:24 | 6727008 All Out Of Bubblegum
All Out Of Bubblegum's picture

I couldn't convince many on this board to buy low. I tried. Really hard.

 

But don't listen to me again. Your choice.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:29 | 6727028 To Infinity And...
To Infinity And Beyond's picture

I would venture to say most folks on ZH are buying low, just not buying BC. Honestly how can anyone have any faith in something that went from 8 cents to $1200 back to $200 in mere months. I hope it works out for you. For me, I'll invest in something that has been tried and tested for thousands of years.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:34 | 6727055 All Out Of Bubblegum
All Out Of Bubblegum's picture

I'm in metals too. Diversify, diversify, diversify.

> "8 cents to $1200 back to $200 in mere months"

BTFD is always sage advice, no matter the price. Only fools buy at a top.

Thanks for the well wishes. I hope you do well also. I'm not trying to get you buy bitcoin. But at least have some understanding of it before you bash it or denigrate those of us that do understand it.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:56 | 6727152 painlord-2k
painlord-2k's picture

Volatility is not the same of worthless.

Volatility went down in the past, is going down today and will go down in the future.
Volatility is a function of the size of the market.
Anyway, gold went down 40% from the top. Silver went down 70% from the top and their markets are enormous compared to bitcoin today.
If you understand the theory and know the reason all of them have value, these fluctuations can give you a lot of opportunities.
When BTC wento to 1K I believed I would not had a nother chance to accumulate more bitcoin. But it went down, so I was able to accumulate more.
And now, patience, perseverance and understanding start to yeld fruits.

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:42 | 6727095 painlord-2k
painlord-2k's picture

I sit on gold, silver, bitcoin and cash
If the exchange rate continue to raise, my bitcoin hold will be worth more than my  gold hold and silver hold combined.

My gold and silver stansh is worth a little less than when I bought (like 10%, maybe less), but my BTcs are worth near double than what I spent to buy them (not all int he same time).

In both cases, to have my gold, silver and bitcoins, the market need to have a price way higher than today, like add a zero on the right of the price of gold, silver and at least two for bitcoin.

 

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 14:42 | 6727097 painlord-2k
painlord-2k's picture

I sit on gold, silver, bitcoin and cash
If the exchange rate continue to raise, my bitcoin hold will be worth more than my  gold hold and silver hold combined.

My gold and silver stansh is worth a little less than when I bought (like 10%, maybe less), but my BTcs are worth near double than what I spent to buy them (not all int he same time).

In both cases, to have my gold, silver and bitcoins, the market need to have a price way higher than today, like add a zero on the right of the price of gold, silver and at least two for bitcoin.

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!