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The Probability Of A December Rate Hike Has Never Been Higher
What a difference a word and a day makes...
December odds the highest they have ever been...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Rate hike fears will kill Santa Rally before it even starts.
Rate hike kabuki is theater.
Scary rate hike threat - just in time for Halloween.
Stick a pointy hat on Yellin, paint her face green, kit out the rest of the Fed as her flying monkeys, and you got a great remake of the Wizard of Oz.
Rate hike fears will kill Santa Rally before it even starts.
Only thing that will kill the rally is if the Banksters have already unloaded their junk on Mr amd Mrs John Q. Public. Until then the stair step grind higher will continue. (Geo-political events not included)
nope, not december, not ever.
That's what they said about the taper...
Draghi and Abenomics picked up the slack from The Fed "taper". That was planned ahead, big song and dance going on. What they know now is that the ECB can't buy anything near enough issue, note what happened to China due to that. And it was the China situation that nuked the recent talk of a Fed tightening. And forget about Japan, they are just dead walking. Game over.
October ends very tense. Now Draghi is rumored to be ramping up purchases "any day now" but he's still in the same no-Euro-bond-sellers flight-to-safety market, so that's just empty talk. Talk that buys everyone a few weeks or a month before The Fed needs to say something to stir the old animal spirits a bit except 4 reelz.
It won't be about Fed tightening though, that you can rest assured. The Fed cannot tighten, ever. They can hold their ground (maybe) but they cannot be seen as tightening so long as the entire EM is doing the same via forex draw-downs. Nope. They might play the NIRP card a little, if just to see what falls out of that tree when shaken. Big gamble but what else have they got? Nothing.
This is the end game. All they have in the end is talk. Talk works for now because everyone wants the same thing, being the illusion to continue for another day or a week or a month or whatever more they can eek out of the confusion. Everyone needs to go with the talk for that to happen. So long as they all do, it works. As soon as one serious player jumps out of line and starts selling, the shit hits the fan. Everything, all at once, from every direction. Everyone is pent up nervously waiting, knowing it is coming. Holding to try and time the top, everyone watching everyone else, watching The Fed. Just watching and waiting.
The power of words. And hope, and greed. And then suddenly the implosion of all faith.
The Bernanke said it would never happen in his lifetime. As much as I think the man was a real (insert derogatory term here), I believe his assertion.
Bernanke said that rates wouldn't normalize in his lifetime...big difference. But I agree, no rate rise until 2017...and even then it's by force after rates go negative.
Man, this is like when you were 14 dating a chick who keeps telling you that you can get to second base next time.
pods
Retards. They are not going to raise rates. Ever.
Ever go to a casino and see 20 spins on a roulette table come out the same color in a row and everyone bets the other color and they all lose their shirts.
BTFD, its more profitable to go with the flow
I'm confident they would false flag and crash the market before they raised rates. Take the blame off of the authorities and place it on some muslim shlubs or something.
beware, the singularity ramrod...
but they have to keep pretending like they are actually considering it.....it's like the guy who keeps letting the girl think he will one day ask her to marry him, even though he has zero intentions of ever doing so....but if it gets her into bed with him tonight....he's accomplished his mission.
Agreed. They will continue to try and manipulate the idiots out there for as long as people are foolish enough to continue believing them.
People who understand this will be able to profit from markey moves based on this bullshit but even that won't last for ever.
At some point, other realities will intercede to cause a reset of one magnitude or another and it won't matter anymore.
which will be gulf oil sales in yuan
" try and manipulate the idiots out there"
Not idiots. Strategists. Everyone playing this game wants the game to continue. Every day it does they make money. The day it is over it is over forever and they close this casino. We never play this game again and the people who play that know this perfectly well.
Yeah. I said forever. That is no idle speculation. It might take a decade for the dust to settle but I don't think anything like the past 100 years can ever be repeated. Not in this age of men. Maybe in another age a thousand years from now, over some other artifice besides exploitation of fossil fuels. But not soon and never again like this.
why would they be so hawkish if they know they arent going to do it? Do they think they can and are just delusional?
Or much worse, are they confident something will happen by December that will take attention away from them.
Correct. This is just another Fed bluff.
Correct; they can't raise rates any longer. Once addicted to free money, markets would suffer catastrophic withdrawals that would bring the whole mess crashing down on them. We're stuck with QEinfinity for the rest of our natural lives.
Can't raise rates. PERIOD.
they have to do something about all this irrational exhuberance
They ARE the irrational exhuberance.
2020?
6 years ago, and 6 years from now, it will be the same - "we will see how conditions are at our next meeting and consider a 25BP hike at that point"
It will never happen.
SO WHAT
B.S.
so if they raise the ffr by .1% that counts as a hike?
0.1% - it's too much, they can't do ever 0.001%
I notice how it only says 12/16/20?? Maybe it means 2035. All those getting ready for launch will be sorely disappointed.
The Fed will raise rates just as soon as congress shows fiscal restraint and discipline.
LOL, that will never happen.
LOL maybe the theme song for the Fed should be "Less than Zero" by the Fixx (is in snort snort)!
They're gonna end up like Robert Downey Jr. too.
pods
correction..."Saved By Zero",but still..the same effect
imma a 80's new wave type of dude
been there,heard that
i gave ya the 1 up(for effort)
regarding probability, there's 2 chances of a hike: slim and none
type-o negative did "less than zero"
Now I know why they played the hell out of this son in the 70's.
Zero my hero
maybe they should go for a 1/16 of a % increase and call it "Job Done!"
Such Bullshit. Let me get back to watching the world blow up.
im still of the belief:
1. ill believe it when i see it
2. i think theres a good shot they raise once, then possibly twice (25 bps each) ... they will then see what it does to the high-yield market & the USD, reverse course, take us back to zero, then possibly negative.
3. i still don't believe the heavy-grade, industrial sized shit hits the fan til the yield on the US10-year intersects or sniffs close to the dividend yield on the S&P500 (thats when all the senior citizens will COMPLETELY rotate out of dividend payers & into fixed since they've had no choice & been pitched thats their only trade for yield/income thats been compounding for 7+ years.
HORSESHIT
Thanks for the laugh! Probabilities are as meaningless as the rhetoric pouring from the Fed and Congress. The only way the Fed ever raises rates will be after they have taken them down into the negative zone (and even then the raised rate will be equal to or less than it is now).
@iridiumrebel & slovester - at this point, nothing surprises me. i still think we're all eventually going to the same place (which is negative rates) but what better way to make THEIR case that rates need to go LOWER and not HIGHER than them taking them up just to make a point & show what it will do to the markets? i don't think any of this is being done by mistake; this only furthers their "plan" and then they can point to the markets cratering and SOMETHING needs to be done.
remember, NOTHING in washington gets done unless there is a crisis. just how all the republicans are banging on the fed right now, those guys care about 1 thing - getting elected. lets just say the fed raises 1-2 times starting in december and the markets are down 15-20%. EVERYONE in washington will look to the fed to lower rates and why? because if the fed doesn't cut rates, it will force policy makers to do their jobs and form policy that ends deficits, starts paying down principal, and gets away from this insane fiscal & monetary policy. THAT is not going to happen before an election. along this line of thinking, it makes MORE sense for the dems/doves to attempt this strategy with less than 12 months to an election because the masses will see the markets cratering (due to what the republicans wanted, higher rates) and that will help sculpt/carve-out more voters. at that point, the masses will demand rates be lowered so their stocks & houses go back up in value.
again, its not what i or anyone who posts here would do. hell, we'd all rip this fucker apart, take the pain, hunker down, deal with the fall-out, and rebuild this economy on concrete, steel, and titanium instead of the quicksand we're on now.
JMO
We are locked on course... heading straight into the event horizon. This is the one thing that I can say with absolute certainty.
Just a matter of when and how it all goes down. The choices now are only degrees of pain.
I seriously doubt the fed is going to do anything before Christmas, and especially during Christmas. No one will get the GI Joe with the kung-fu grip if they do. So Wall Street is probably just as stupid as ever. If anything, it is the Fed itself in that market buying expensive and worthless interest rate derivatives.
And as goes IBM goes the DOW. What a crock.
Finance pundits and the media will bitch, moan and wring their hands over the next 4-8 weeks about the "impending" rate hike. Of course there will be the perfunctory "leaks" from various Fed Wonks to support this. Then of course they'll say "Psych!, No Rate Hike" and its Merry-fuckin' ZIRP Christmas for everyone and a NIRP New Year.
At this point in time what difference does it make!
I say go for it... Lets get this depression rolling.
The signs of an overheated economy are everywhere!
Raising rates will happen only as a result of some change in the ongoing currency wars. And only used as a tool to transfer blame.
Translation - The number of fools being suckered by the fed has never been higher.
So in other words; December rate hike odds have never been more wrong. Got it.
I call bullshit (yet again) !!! That's the Fed's only tool left - bullshit.
You took the bullshit right out of my mouth.
How do you bet againt this this? We all know that there is no way in hell that the FED will ever raise rates.
If you're brave (or foolish) and think there won't be a hike? Go long on gold and silver. The price is way down today. You'll make a killing.
But if you're wrong, you'll lose everything.
12/16/20?
Yeah I can imagine a rate hike by then.
The Fed needed the extra two digits to add to their balance sheet!
We're in the second recession in the depression that started in 2007. The FED will not raise rates. - Jim Rickards
http://www.cliffkule.com/2015/10/jim-rickards-says-recession-will-force....
This time for sure no doubt we promise....losers.
There's a 0% chance of a rate hike.
Watch.
This has been going on since March 2015.
QE4 next year.
QE4 would be quite compatible with The Donald's tax plan. If you stop collecting from the below 50K crowd and increase the EIC you'd give the FED some debt to monetize.
Maybe The Donald has a better shot than is thought. If his platform aligns with the bankers interests then anything is possible...
Can someone explain to me what will happen when rate hikes and QE occur simultaneously?
Assuming that its a possibility the same thing that would happen without the rate hike. The bankers will get their bonuses, the rest of us will pray that we don't lose our shirts
Hike or no hike, shit will hit the fan eventually.
BTW, who calculates these odds? The same people who blow bubble after bubble and everytime try to convince us that this time is different?
The same people who would pee their pants if someone turned the light off in a restroom because they couldn't find their dicks?
You know what, I can predict that rate hike will happen next month until it happens, a broken clock is right twice a day.
To conclude, a 50% probability means "I don't know what I'm talking about" because it means basically this: maybe yes, maybe no. Anyone on the street could give you the same answer.
Sure they will. OK. Now cue the Benny Hill Music.
No they have to play Bach's Toccata and Fugue in D Minor
..
only after bozo licks the smegma from janet's wanker...
Blah. Blah. More blah.
It's a little more convincing this time.
Gold is already down $30 today and silver down 70 cents. And this is only on speculation. Just wait until a 0.25% rate hike is actually announced. Then the prices will REALLY drop.
Funny, I haven't heard much from the bugs today.
And to all the people screeching BS, there won't be a hike? Put your money where your mouth is and go long on gold and silver.
I would rather short the market...and to use a refrain normally reserved for the permabears, even a broken clock is right twice a day. Eventually they will raise rates, but until then can I convince you to buy a bridge in Brooklyn.
Of course they're jawboning a December rate hike. They get to wobble the markets up and down for skimming, they can control paper gold prices at will, and they don't have to actually do anything.
Easy peasey.
is this 2020?
There can never be a rate hike.
The fact they are talking about a rate hike in December while we are still in October confirms this for me.
They just want the words "rate hike" in the news for 2 - 3 months to keep the bubble from over-inflating.
They cant raise the rates, they wont raise the rates.
But if they did raise the rates, all the ponzi paper would come crashing down and it would be interesting to see and maybe its what the country needs.
In fact the opposite.
Raising rates will cause the value of the USD to soar, higher than it is already.
More talk to cover the market manipulation.
December will be cancelled due to business conditions.
Anyone putting some money on this horse? Fed Funds Futures for December are at their lows.... Or is this all just a bunch of complaining?
Real world: 0% chance of increase.
Tylers should just stop the rate hike bullshit.
Trivia Question
Category: Animal Species
What predator species squawks like a hawk but acts like a dove?
Why, central banksters, of course!
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Incidentally, the federal reserve (and any human who is awake) knows the economy in the USSA and world is collapsing, not healthy and growing. And they know xmas spending this year will be abysmal... possibly the worst ever.
So this pretend that rates will rise in December is an open joke that only naive fools and the totally asleep will believe. Why anyone takes these consistent transparent liars seriously is beyond me!
As I have posted here several times in the past year, there will be NO rate hike this year or next year, probably not until the whole thing collapses. There is a slight chance of a small insignificant hike just so the Fed can save face but it will likely be followed shortly thereafter by QE4.