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Someone's Still Lying
The raw initial claims data rose 1k from 259 to 260k (beating expectations of 265k).
But the less-noisy 4-week average of initial jobless claims has slid further this week - to 263.25, its lowest since Dec 1973 - as the divergence between "useless at this point in the business cycle" claims and 'real' job cuts has never been wider.
Charts: Bloomberg
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"When it becomes serious, you have to lie." - Juncker
It got serious.
And the trouble bin is open for business.
Lie or die, yo!
Could the people getting cut have a severance deal? If so, they cannot collect.
Also, summer help has gone back to college (for the fifth or sixth year). They don't usually file.
"Their Lying again"................................per norm
Severance packages don't affect eligibility for filing claims but other compensation like unused vacation pay or other compensation might. Each state may differ.
In the Peoples Republic of Massachusetts, you cannot file until severance runs out. A friend of mine had the choice 20 weeks severance at current pay or "new" job at 20% paycut. He took the severance, then ended up on unemployment for 2 weeks, and now has a new job with a 20% paycut. He almost timed it perfectly but HR dept at new place was slow.
why not lie? i mean, no one will ever go to jail for it.
rubin and summers
summers and rubin
rubin and summers
rubin and summers
the own this pad
Inital claims are falling due to all those that never found a job are falling off and the acceleration of job cuts hasn't overcome that yet. Have no fear, it'll catch up in December so that Rate Hike is off the table and we get the Santa rally.
That and the following: I work in the oil industry. A lot of oil companies are working through massive layoffs currently (taken about 6 months so far since the initial announcement). A lot of the employees are getting paid a three month severance package which means you can't apply for unemployment benefits until that time is up. Additionally, most engineer-types are going to try to find another job first before going to the government to collect unemployment.
Tick-tock.
It's tailored to suit the Feds agenda.
Trucking rates to and from the oil patch in the Dakotas are in freefall. This trend is the same nationwide. Welcome to recession, enjoy the time.
The difference in data just means that many people have moved beyond earthly concerns like food and shelter.
They have moved into the ethereal realm....
There is no other way to explain it.
Insanity needs no explanation because insanity cannot be 'explained'.....except to another insane entity.
If we demand or expect an explanation from a clearly insane system, what does that say about us?
<We the People Insane>
You don't mean <gasp> . . . Zombies?
obamcare freed us from such earthly concerns.
The Department of Labor, and other member of the “team” (large corporations, their elected and unelected operatives in government, ministry of propaganda- corporate media) continue spewing out bogus employment statistics. Unemployment in the US is >20%, as in much of the EU. Paul Craig Roberts has written extensively about this. Link: www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/08/10/us-economy-continues-collapse-paul-c...
People that once had good full time jobs are now going to be working seasonal jobs at the local retail store.
Somebody:
Do you think the retail sector will need them this year?
Obama lying? Never?
When workers are permanently "unemployed" .... they don't re-enter the labor market .... to get laid off again .... and again .... this is a favorable wind .... for unemployment claims ?
Ah yes, why not? In other fucked up news, Energy dept is now saying jack O laterns cause global warming. America, one giant insane asylum.
Lying is all they have left, that and start sending out the checks, but they won't, a starving population is a controllable one just ask the North Koreans.
Reality doesn't matter to the algos, only headlines.
Market controlled now by bots and the Federal Reserve.
S&P500 Up Nearly 9% this month.
Germany's DAX up over 12% this month.
Recovery is back on. Now who's ready to riot???
Wow.
So if you got the fucking toady communist media on your side you can pretty much say whatever bullshit you want, and it'll get reported as gospel.
Actually, the initial claims data really cannot be "lying" since the filing of them is now almost all computer entry based. (It would be really nefarious to alter that). The "UNEMPLOYMENT RATE" based on the household survey, however, is completely f*cked up - since the manner in which the data is gathered is idiotic. Only a fool or someone desiring to completely distort things would compile it that way.
Getting back to initial claims. There are many delaying in filing due to severance and/or accrued vaction, etc. Many have had a series of layoffs broken by intermittent lousy jobs. Some of these might not even have enough wage credits to establish a claim. Or have the benefit rate be so low that it's not worth it. Some delay in the belief they will be able to find a new job shortly. Also many of the announced layoffs have not even taken place yet. I'm sure there's certainly a collection of other reasons.
Many years ago before computers both initial and continued claims were hand-tallied by unemployment office employees leaving a great chance of human error. Now they are tallied by computer automation. IMO, the misrepresentation is the not the actual unemployment figures - but how the UNEMPLOYMENT RATE is determined. And the means of measuring the rate is so profoundly stupid and inept that it is an unintentional lie on the face of it. (or intentional depending on one's viewpoint).
They may be tallied by computer for each state but they are not aggregated by computer nor is the report by the BLS generated by a computer program.
Correct. And couple that with an individual who goes to McDonald's for four hours, then next door at the 24/7 station, for four more. Then across the street to BK for four, then finishing the day at the Days Inn beside it, with another shift.
That's counted as +4 on the "new jobs" total, gets subtracted from the unemployed - still looking list, and Wa-La, a plummeting UE rate.
Lier's figure and figure's lie. But we all "feel" better about it.
Why are you bringing reason into this - it ruins perfectly good mopery? This lot would have you believe that, not only is the BLS lying, but all of the state agencies too. It's the greatest and most complete conspiracy in the history of the world.
Here's something else that is stupid. The economist Tyler trots out every week to "debunk" the numbers argues that that this doesn't signify a better job market, because there's a lag between layoffs and benefit filing. Why, because people believe jobs are so plentiful that there's not point in getting unemployment - they just get another job.
Think about that for a second. They think jobs are so plentiful that they don't need unemployment. And this is supposed to be evidence of a soft job market! Insanity.
TS won't HTF, though, until these numbers, correct or not, start to rise rapidly.
As mentioned below...the stock market is controlled by bots and the federal reserve.... definition of bots.... "a disease affecting various institutions, especially the stock market, caused by the attachment of the parasitic larvae of botflies to the stomach of the host." Sounds about right for today's casino algo driven stocky market. Not sure of the definition of the federal reserve.
LIES? It's called the bureau of labor statistcs. The birth and death model is not included.
Our loyal American Press in their great tradition of investigative reporting will soon explain the truth of this numbers manipulation on every TV.
Oh, they won't?