This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Macro Dump, Earnings Slump & Hawkish-Fed Pump Spark 4th Best October For Stocks Since 1929
Why we rallied... (BTFD short squeeze)
Because... (the central banks conditioned traders)
How it will end... (The markets are at 2:00 in this clip)
* * *
Before we start... This!
And this...
October - Just For Fun
Everything is awesome around the world (except Ukraine and Venezuela)...
- This is the 4th biggest October S&P rally since 1929!!
- Best overall month for the S&P since October 2011
- Nasdaq's best month since September 2010
In The US, Nasdaq the big winner and Trannies underperformed (weak close today)...
With Materials, Energy, and Tech the huge winners...
Leaving stocks the most overbought since Nov 2014...
And then there's Valeant...
The Dow still did not quite make it back to green for 2015... even as The S&P surge back into the green (and Nasdaq nears cycle highs once again)
While October was a big month for stocks, it was less exciting across the other asset classes...
Treasury yields tumbled initially on poor payrolls.. then yields went nowhere for 3 weeks til The FOMC...
The US Dollar managed some modest gains (once again driven by China rate cuts, ECB and FOMC moves)
Silver surged over 7% on the month as copper slid over 1% amid China growth concerns. Crude and Gold (after the former's meltup) were equally higher on the month...
* * *
So back to this week...
The Dow actually closed lower of 4 of the 5 days this week, but the melt-up after The FOMC turned hawkish-er saved stocks for the week..
And stocks have given all of the fomc gains back...
Although today was weak..with an ugly close...
Most mind-blowingly, "Most Shorted" was notably weak post-FOMC and stunningly roundtripped to perfectly unchanged on the month - after the massive squeeze post-payrolls...
Since The FOMC Statement...Gold is the loser, stocks gave back gains, with only crude higher...
Something remains majorly broken in The VIX Complex...
Treasury yields pushed on higher this week with the long-end outperforming overall (after yesterday's ugliness which was rumored to be dominated by rate-locks on heavy issuance)...
The USDollar drifted lower again today, giving up all of its Hawkish FOMC gains...
And it seems US equities are catching on to what FX markets think...
Commodities generally drifted lower on the week, apart from crude...
Crude ripped higher on the latter half of the week - running stops above last week's highs before fading...
Charts: Bloomberg
- 21486 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -


























Well,so much for that Oct Collapse talk
Single tear.
Get ready for the big one. Germany's government is doing a dance on the tight rope. Markets will nose dive when Germany's government collapses next month.
The migrant crisis will trigger an economic crisis and that will turn into a government crisis.
Germany is vital to Europe's economy. When Germany craters, the rest of Europe will implode. At least those are the potential and very real outcomes of recent developments.
Everyone is starting to hunker down. Nothing is as it was and people aren't stupid, They know what's coming.
It will get bloody. Soon.
Looking for potential fundamental triggers to a rigged "market" is meaningless. If fundamental triggers actuallly would have worked, S&P500 would be at 210, rather than just below 2100.
Just in case any of you wall street jerk offs are reading ... I have a pretty good retirement system at my company ... but anything I can't get in CASH goes into MMMF ... at ZIRP. But that is ok, because I can go with the wrench:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92D15qtI_Gk&feature=youtu.be&t=104
Everything else goes to extinguish debt and maybe cash in a sock or safe deposit box or something.
Good luck finding feeder fish.
But you know what, Ackman has a fat looking ass and he is still in the water. Why don't you go feed on him.
Regards,
Cooter
economy sux.
z
Due To Worst Oil Price Slump Since The 1980’s, Chevron To Cut 7,000 JobsOut of context chart overlays seem to work with the new crop of 'higher education' graduates.
It is like when you show your dog a ball and they get all excited and run off to catch it before you throw it.
It looks like our island top is being nicely set up though, some bearish positions appear to have been put on but not enough of a size to get a short squeeze out of.
A toxic stealth grind lower with false whipsaws along the way and then the bottom falls out of it - regardless of whether Yellen hikes, or talks hike, or flip flops or whatever. It seems FOMC bull shit is running out of gas. The idea that CB's are going to go full retard - already priced in. Buy the dip works until it doesn't. And I think some folks smelt smoke 2 or 3 months ago where the Oct rally stands on pegged legs. I don't think there is much conviction left - IMHO.
So, everything's OK now, Huh?
Exactly! but i would rather be wrong and lose no money than be wrong and lose it all.
What exactly happened on the close? I was down all day and made it into the green in the last couple of minutes despite my loss in gold. Nobody listens to Fed-speak...buy button broken?
If it weren't for that bogus 3:45 ramp we would have broken 2075 in the S&P. No one wants to hold the hot potato up here over the weekend.
This market is going down.
Auspicious sign. Day-traders and week-traders long for the week taking profits, getting out. Shows recent highs partially driven by short-term speculative buying.
End of month trades.
Putin Through The Lense Of Big Money, Big Energy, Geopolitics
http://thenewsdoctors.com/?p=529937
I think the dollar is key. If it weakens significantly, look out below...stocks will fall, gold will rise. At least, that is the thought that is comforting me at the end of a generally bad week.
Seems as long as apple sells i phones and mobile ad clicks are good as is well. Have no idea wtf they have to do with the real economy. Once upon a time the economy grew by turning raw materials into finished goods. Bad news made the markets go down. Good news made the markets go up. You never know now which way things are going to move based on facts. Giant move back to near all time highs off bad news starting with the 120k print on jobs created. It is uncanny.
fiat phoney click click econ. nothing is real cept your own unbiased thoughts.
like playing with a sharp knife with no handle and sharp on both edges...
Apple is still selling iPhones because all the mobile phone networks now allow payments for the phones. Easier on the EBT Cards that way. Turn off the EBT Cards and this whole thing goes to the shitter.
note to self:
remember to thank those sociopathic MoneyChanger fucks for their continuous and blatant manipulation of the phony paper price of Gold and especially Silver. why? because their desperae and stupid acts have allowed me to switch my accumulating to Gold having attained the Silver oz. objective laid out 5 years ago...and even better, i can still nibble at Silver while they keep the phony paper price where it was 8 years ago...
again - thanks mother fuckers!
DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS...
DEATH TO GEORGE FUCKING SOROS
Maybe the Federal Reserve can sponser that BTFD guy in green as a float for the Thanksgiving parade.
Yep. We are crashing upwards!
And everything is OK now.
Each November, it’s never the thin, gaunt, emaciated fowl that gets slaughtered. This year, diners will ask “is this turkey, or pork shoulder?”
A day seldom passes without me seeing something in the news that makes me glad I gave up meat. That aside, I've noticed something interesting happening to my attitude toward traditional holidays, e.g., New Year's, Independence Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas. Not sure why, but they seem vaguely irrelevant.
Though my post was a metaphor for the market, I took recent warnings against "processed red meat" as a dog whistle warning after recent retail equity fund inflows.
fight off the matrix, fight it off and make it good for your sanity. do it your way. fuxk gift buying, fuck the relatives if it is going to be a joke. give a good excuse and go hunting instead. something for your sanctity... replace you your with I for my sanctity...ha.
If I'm lucky I am going to bag that 10 point buck that was standing no further than 25 feet from our front door when she let the dogs out a week ago.
Standard Disclaimer: Because nothing beats opening your front door and having the venison practically invite itself into the larder.
DOW will be 18,000 or better in time for x-mas and bonuses. First of '16 the bitch will really start running.
Reality left the building a long, long time ago. Nothing matters now, it's all bullshit.
They know it, you know it, everybody knows.
It's Mad Max in the D.C. cesspool and on W street!
We are taking your shit and there's not one danm thing you can do about it serfs!
Signed...Banksters Inc.
That Buy The Dip video had me LMAO. Pitch perfect description of current situation. I'm going with the chick in black. That guy in green is crazy. Then I saw it was posted in March, 2014 when the S&P 500 was 1850. Then I sobered up.
You're my favorite new ZH-er, but that fact, along with 75c, still won't get you a cup of coffee. Still, welcome aboard.
Wow, that's high praise coming from such a gifted veteran as yourself. I'm honored, sir.
One day our stacks will make us wealthier than all the paper millionairs so i keep stacking.
If you are buying here you are an idiot! If you are selling here you are also an idiot! That tells me not to participate.
Whats different this time? I am short over the weekend and feeling as good as beeing long yesterday. So what? Maybe i am wrong, fuck it!
For whatever it's worth, the other 3 BIG October rallies were the October coming out of a recession. Just a curiosity, so don't get your knickers all in twist.
Okay, pork belly prices have been dropping all morning, which means that everybody is waiting for it to hit rock bottom, so they can buy low. Which means that the people who own the pork belly contracts are saying, "Hey, we're losing all our damn money, and Christmas is around the corner, and I ain't gonna have no money to buy my son the G.I. Joe with the kung-fu grip! And my wife ain't gonna f... my wife ain't gonna make love to me if I got no money!" So they're panicking right now, they're screaming "SELL! SELL!" to get out before the price keeps dropping. They're panicking out there right now, I can feel it.
Standard Disclasimer: Coming soon to stock markets everywhere.
The federal reserve has no intention to raise rates in December... unless the predators-that-be are ready to completely destroy the fake markets and economy.
Seriously... just before xmas, crash everything?
Seriously... with an election in 11 months, crash everything?
Always possible (they are predators), but very out of character.
Most likely they're just trying to keep the USD from spiraling down the toilet where it belongs and needs to be to flush out waste.
The federal reserve and predators-that-be know the collapse they created is coming soon. And they definitely do want to cause it so they know the timing and thereby can absolutely clean up by betting against bonds/stocks/markets.
BUT... they don't want to be seen as the cause, so they can pretend to be the "only possible saviors" on the other side of the collapse. So it is very unlikely the federal reserve will raise rates in December, and thereby paint a huge target on themselves (blame for the collapse that follows).
Yes, they would love to be able to raise rates without causing a fast-crash, because otherwise they'll have a difficult time explaining why anyone should trust them after 8 years of trusting them did not improve the economy or prevent disaster. But they can't. That is, unless they intend to deploy the police state and military to fight the next civil war (government vs people).
Is their a separate Tyler that just does headlines?
'Cause this one is a duzy...