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Obama, Kerry Throw In The Towel: US Prepared To Accept Assad Regime In Syria

Tyler Durden's picture




 

John Kerry is back in Vienna today as Washington and its regional allies attempt to forge some kind of face-saving deal that won’t result in absolute humiliation with regard to the conflict in Syria. 

Kerry held talks last week with his “friends” from Russia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia in an effort to begin working towards a diplomatic solution. Washington’s top diplomat pledged to keep the lines of communication open and in a notable shift, this week’s talks include Iran. Washington and Riyadh had previously refused to consent to Tehran’s participation but given the fact that Iranian soldiers and Iran-backed militias are doing most of the fighting on the ground, excluding them ultimately became impossible. 

As we reported late last month in “US Syria Strategy Officially Unravels: Kerry Admits Timetable For Assad Exit Is Completely Unknown”, Washington has been forced to completely abandon its hardline stance on the ouster of Bashar al-Assad. What was once an unequivocal “Assad must go” policy had by late September morphed into an admission that the timetable for regime change in Syria is now completely indeterminate thanks to Russia and Iran’s stepped up efforts to rout rebels and militants on the way to bolstering government forces. 

Now, even the Western media have been forced to admit that Moscow and Tehran have effectively compelled the US to abandon the idea that Syria will soon be governed by a Western puppet. Here’s WSJ:

The Obama administration entered a crucial round of international talks on Syria’s war prepared to accept a deal that leaves President Bashar al-Assad in place for several months or more during the transition to a new government.

 

The U.S. shift on the dictator’s future caps months of backtracking on the most significant obstacle to a resolution of the Syrian conflict. While U.S. officials once argued Mr. Assad couldn’t take part in a political transition, they have gradually eased that stance, eventually signaling he wouldn’t have to step down immediately. Now they are planning to negotiate the question of his future in talks being held Friday in Vienna.

 

The White House hasn’t publicly set a time frame for Mr. Assad’s departure to give U.S. negotiators room to maneuver in the Vienna talks, officials said.

Well, no. The White House “hasn’t publicly set a time frame for Mr. Assad’s departure” because Mr. Assad isn’t likely to depart unless Moscow decides that’s the best course. Anyway, back to WSJ:

in advance of negotiations, administration officials discussed a resolution with U.S. allies, including Turkey, that would allow Mr. Assad to remain in place after a cease-fire in the 4½-year conflict.

 

The resolution the U.S. is seeking would include a cease-fire and would “not prejudge the Assad question,” a senior administration official said.

 

The approach reflects new realities imposed in Syria by Russia and Iran, which have intensified military operations to bolster Mr. Assad. It also follows recent challenges faced by the American-led fight against Islamic State.

Russia and Iran are taking part in Friday’s conference, along with Mr. Assad’s Arab adversaries. In all, the meeting brings together more than a dozen European and Middle Eastern foreign ministers. The inclusion of Iran represents a change after the U.S. and Saudi Arabia blocked Tehran’s participation previously.

 

Russia and Iran have demanded Mr. Assad retain power. America’s Arab allies are demanding a clear timeline for when Mr. Assad would step down, U.S. and Arab officials said.

So once again, say what you will about Assad, but the reality is this: Washington, Riyadh, Ankara, and Doha are “demanding” that the West be able to dictate who runs a sovereign country while Moscow and Tehran are insisting that it isn’t up to the West.

But thanks to the fact that the US is fighting via proxies while Russia and Iran are involved directly, Washington has no bargaining power (something else we were keen on emphasizing as soon as Russia began flying sorties from Latakia): 

Secretary of State John Kerry, who arrived in Vienna on Thursday, intensified discussions in recent weeks with Mr. Assad’s biggest opponents, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, to try to gain their support for a diplomatic resolution that would allow the Syrian dictator to stay in power during a transition, these officials said.

 

The U.S. wields limited influence on the battlefield, making it critical for Washington to persuade those three countries and others to join in the effort because of the power they exercise over the rebel groups they support.

Yes, the "rebel groups they support", rebel groups otherwise known as Sunni extremists who The White House wants you to believe are to varying degrees "moderate" with al-Nusra (i.e. al-Qaeda) on the "moderate" end of the "stark raving mad" continuum, and ISIS on the "extreme" end. But as we outlined in "'Proxy' War No More: Qatar Threatens Military Intervention In Syria Alongside "Saudi, Turkish Brothers," Washington's regional allies aren't yet ready to throw in the towel and it could well be that rather than concede to the preservation of Iran's "Shiite crescent," Saudi Arabia and Qatar will turn Syria into Yemen with a sequel to Operation "Decisive Storm":

The U.S. diplomacy is placing the Arab states and Turkey in a bind, as many of them have provided significant arms and funding to the largely Sunni rebel forces seeking to overthrow Mr. Assad.

 

Saudi Arabia, in particular, has publicly criticized Russia’s military intervention in Syria, arguing it could strengthen Mr. Assad and Shiite-dominated Iran, his closest Middle East ally.

The critical question now is whether the US is about to lose control of its "friends" in the region. That is, Washington is once again dabbling in the Sunni-Shiite divide and that is a dangerous game to play. It could well be that even if The White House elects to call it a day on the Assad ouster plans, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will decide to go it alone in order to keep Tehran from cementing its regional influence. 

If that happens, Washington will have to choose between supporting Riyadh and avoiding a war between NATO and the Russians. 

In other words, if you thought The South China Sea episode was a gut check for the Pentagon, "you ain't seen nothin' yet."

 

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Fri, 10/30/2015 - 10:21 | 6730610 alfbell
alfbell's picture

 

 

All Americans should be hung for treason, for: allowing the last 10 presidents to be elected; not abolishing the Fed Reserve; not dismissing everyone in the most corrupt portion of our government (Congress); not banning career politicians; not banning lobbyists to prevent corporations and banks from influencing government representatives; not replacing the members of the Supreme Court with ethical justices that protect the Constitution; not stamping out any and all traces of Marxism, Corporatocracy, and Cronyism; not dismantling the MIC; not protecting and reinforcing the US Constitution and Bill of Rights. 

You have lost your country and allowed it to be taken over by corrupt, greedy psychopaths. For this treason you are all sentenced to be hung by the neck until dead.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 10:41 | 6730721 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

300+ million may disagree with you.

What country do you come from? Heaven?

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 11:01 | 6730849 alfbell
alfbell's picture

I'm ashamed to say that I'm an American. I love my country, but despise my government. I am guilty. I will queue up in the line to meet the hangman as well. America was the great experiment, a beacon in the dark, a new evolution for humanity. The cost of freedom is vigilance and the willingness to act. We blew it.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 11:10 | 6730899 MoHillbilly
MoHillbilly's picture

Einstein, Americans don't say queue, nice try though

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 12:09 | 6731192 alfbell
alfbell's picture

 

 

I'm an American. Born and raised in NJ. Living in California for the last 40 years. Your assumption that I'm not an American because of a word I used was incorrect.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 11:08 | 6730884 MoHillbilly
MoHillbilly's picture

Who are the pure of heart and soul that will be administering the hangings?

Little Boy: " Look Mom that man is talking out of his bottom"

Mom: " Just ignore him son, he is impotent and it makes him feel good"

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 13:34 | 6731561 alfbell
alfbell's picture

 

 

I'll volunteer to do the hangings. I promise that I will hang myself immediately after hanging you MoHillbilly. Promise.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 10:23 | 6730620 Bay Area Guy
Bay Area Guy's picture

I particularly disagree with one sentence in this article. It says something about some Western puppet being put in charge of Syria. If recent history is any indication (think Iraq and Libya), no one would have been in charge and Syria would have become yet another failed state with Western fingerprints all over it.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 11:30 | 6731000 samjam7
samjam7's picture

There would have been some sort of weak western backed government like in Afghanistan or Libya. But you are right that this government would not have been in full control of the country and anarchy would have prevailed. Just enough chaos to never threaten Israel ever again.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 10:43 | 6730731 Max Steel
Max Steel's picture

Monolithic troll

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 10:34 | 6730670 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Mr. Nobel Peace Prize is putting troops into Syria.  How's that hope and change working for you?  Let me guess, Hillary or Sanders or Trump or Carson or Bush will get us out?  Wait, let me guess, Ryan will do it from the House.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 10:38 | 6730695 Allen_H
Allen_H's picture

Don't believe fuck all, these cunts of the western terrorist axis are out for blood, if they agree to anything, it is only to save their own necks, and to find another way to get what they want, fucking gutter rats (I apologize to real gutter rats though) of our Orwellian west, with its disgusting and atrocious blood loving demons, they should ALL be hanging.

Fuck you jewMerikkka !

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 10:41 | 6730698 sweeeetwater
sweeeetwater's picture

“… Saudi Arabia and Qatar will turn Syria into Yemen with a sequel to Operation "Decisive Storm".

Will Saudi Arabia and Qatar turn Syria into Yemen with a sequel to Operation "Decisive Storm"? Are we talking about the same warriors which are not able to defeat a handful of Yemenis equipped with some old Kalashnikov? Against Russia? As a minimum, Putin will send a Caliber cruise missile to Arabian princeps, on their mirrors full of cocaine.

Holy guys, what do I have to do with you? You go straight all day, but at the end the “brown sugar” wins.

 

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 10:48 | 6730755 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

More like "Operation Smelly Brown Wind".

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 10:56 | 6730808 Eugend66
Eugend66's picture

GO Putin!!

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 10:56 | 6730811 Eugend66
Eugend66's picture

GO Putin!!

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 10:59 | 6730833 22winmag
22winmag's picture

You can't have both "acceptance" and boots on the ground... or can you?

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 11:03 | 6730861 inosent
inosent's picture

prepared to accept assad "for several months or more during the transition to a new government."?

In all of this bluster, why is it we are never informed as to why Assad is such a bad bogeyman that we all here in the uSa should give a damn about a leader the ppl of Syria have chosen, which is 10,000 miles away? Is this what they call making the world 'safe for democracy' by engaging terrorists to destroy legitimate governments for no discernible reason?

Maybe the US govt can boycott oil sales from the areas under 'isis' control and choke off their funding? That might help, right? After all, western oil companies are buying the oil from ISIS Petroleum Inc, like they do from any other oil producing company. I bet my car right now has gasoline to get me to the anti-ISIS rally came from an oil field under ISIS control.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 12:01 | 6731166 HenryHall
HenryHall's picture

One interesting possibility is that the Syrian Arab Republic might choose to apply to be admitted as a constituent republic and subject of the Russian Federation.  Following a referendum of course. Just like Krym Respublik and Gorod of Sevastopol.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 11:10 | 6730891 HoserF16
HoserF16's picture

Putin is a Genius. Or at least he has surrounded himself with geniuses. Obama, is an Idiot who has surrounded himself with idiots. Putin caught our state Dept. inside their own propaganda. Hilarious...

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 11:09 | 6730893 Bankster Kibble
Bankster Kibble's picture

At last, sanity is breaking out.  "face-saving move"???  More like sensible realization that we exceptional Americans do not walk on air, gravity works for even us, and maybe we shouldn't be the bully on the block any more.

I'm sure the war hawks like Hillary and McCain are foaming at the mouth.  They won't be able to see Assad get the Qaddafi treatment on live TV.  Too effin bad.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 11:31 | 6731010 Raul44
Raul44's picture

Ah common, I still read same day that they want to deploy forces there so which one is it? 

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 11:31 | 6731012 Yuubokumin
Yuubokumin's picture

The critical question now is whether the US is about to lose control of its "friends" in the region. That is, Washington is once again dabbling in the Sunni-Shiite divide and that is a dangerous game to play. It could well be that even if The White House elects to call it a day on the Assad ouster plans, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will decide to go it alone in order to keep Tehran from cementing its regional influence.

hey, doesn't this have a couple errors?

as far as I know, you call it a night, not a day.

and don't you decide to go at it alone, or otherwise?

confirmation'd be appreciated, I'm trying to improve my english.


Fri, 10/30/2015 - 12:13 | 6731212 pupdog1
pupdog1's picture

Never send boys and horses to do a man's job.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 12:33 | 6731311 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

"If that happens, Washington will have to choose between supporting Riyadh and avoiding a war between NATO and the Russians."

How is NATO involved in all this ??

Russia is not atacking Turkey

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 13:08 | 6731468 Johnny Horscaulk
Johnny Horscaulk's picture

Wait a second - who gives a fuck what the Saudis or Americans are "prepared to accept" as to the government of a sovereign state and UN member - especially one fighting foreign terrorists sent by those countries +turkey, qatar, and Israel.

what the fuck?

I mean - just what the fucking fuck is going on in this world????

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 14:18 | 6731773 The Gladiator
The Gladiator's picture

Let me think about this. The house of Saud sells their liquid dinasaurs for USD only,because the 'Muricans keep them safe. 

 Now,the peace prize winning talking head decides to side with King Vagasil's enemies.

  USD's lose importance in world markets.

    My cheap Chinese gadgets at Wally World cost more than a new Chevy

      NO WORRIES! Stock market keeps climbing. (I gotta go now,table # 3 needs some more tarter sauce)

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 17:11 | 6732413 The Ingenious G...
The Ingenious Gentleman's picture

"Saudi Arabia and Qatar will turn Syria into Yemen"

Hahahahahahahah. That must have Syria, Russia and Iran quaking in their boots. What are Saudi Arabia and Qatar gonna do? Hire Pakistan to fight for them? Surely not send their princes off to war.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 19:18 | 6732696 JohninMK
JohninMK's picture

Probably not Pakistan but try the Sudanese Army, now fighting for the Saudis in Yemen.

That will really put the fear of god into the Syrians.

Fri, 10/30/2015 - 21:47 | 6733085 honestann
honestann's picture

Return all military assets to USSA, then lock them away.  Then leave everyone else alone.  Simple.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!