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Another Black Swan? Turkey Holds Snap Elections Amid NATO-Backed Civil War
There’s a potential black swan event taking place in Turkey on Sunday and no one seems to care. That is, the media isn’t devoting nearly enough coverage to Turkish elections considering the impact the outcome will invariably have on the situation in Syria, on the fate of the lira, and on the Pentagon’s strategy with regard to embedding spec ops with the YPG.
As a reminder, Turkey held elections back in June and the outcome did not please President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
AKP lost its absolute majority in parliament thanks in no small part to a relatively strong showing by the pro-Kurdish HDP and that meant that Erdogan couldn’t move forward with plans to consolidate his power by amending the constitution. Well, if you know anything about Erdogan, you know that he isn’t exactly the type to take these kinds of things lying down, and so, he decided to trade NATO access to Incirlik for Western acquiescence to a crackdown on the PKK.
Of course that’s not how it was pitched to the media.
The official line was that after a suicide bombing in Suruc claimed by ISIS, Ankara decided it was time to go after Islamic State. Not to put too fine a point on it, but that’s a joke. The PKK and many other observers have long contended that Turkey is complicit in allowing money, guns, and personnel to flow across the border into Syria so that ISIS can continue to destabilize the Assad regime which Ankara opposes. In other words, Erdogan has no interest whatsoever in fighting ISIS. What he does have an interest in is starting a new war with the PKK in order to convince voters that the security situation in Turkey is such that only a dictator can get the situation under control - that’s the whole gambit.
So what Erdogan did was this: he obstructed the coalition building process in the wake of June’s elections, started a civil war in order to try and convince voters that supporting HDP was a mistake, then called for new elections in November which he hopes will restore AKP’s absolute majority and allow him to change the constitution. It’s deplorable to the point of absurdity (especially given the recent suicide attack in Ankara) and underscores the extent to which ISIS has now become a catch-all smokescreen that can be cited whenever a government wants to do something that would otherwise come across as insane.
So that’s the backdrop for Sunday’s elections in Turkey. Here’s a bit of color from Barclays which is useful from a technical perspective, but please remember that this is all about the push and pull between Erdogan and a powerful Kurdish militia. In other words: attempts to analyze this rationally will everywhere and always miss the point but we would note that Barclays does a nice job of taking into account the realities of the situation on the ground and indeed, the bank’s analysts believe the market is mispricing the risk of a geopolitical mishap.
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From Barclays
Four months after the June parliamentary elections and the party negotiations failed to produce a new government, Turks are asked to go to the polls again this Sunday (1 November). Market pricing in recent weeks suggests investor optimism that these elections will lead to a swift formation of a new government, possibly in the form of an AKP-CHP coalition.
We are less sure about such an outcome: the polls do not suggest any significant change in the allocation of votes, nor do we see meaningful changes in party leaders’ attitudes that would imply a greater probability of building a coalition government. In fact, in our view, the political backdrop has become increasingly polarised and fractious.We therefore think the market could become nervous in the absence of signals of tangible progress on coalition talks in a relatively short time, especially given the upcoming Moody’s review on 4 December.
The likelihood of a third election is higher than market expectations, in our view. In particular, the probability of a third election would be re-priced higher if the AKP manages to increase its share of the vote in November (ie, towards 43%). In the event of a third election, we see significant risk of a negative rating action, particularly from Moody’s.
The polarisation in Turkey has deepened further, across political and ethnic lines, as a result of the renewed terror attacks, inflamed political rhetoric and negative repercussions of the Syria issue domestically (particularly among Kurds). The tragic bombing attack in Ankara, which was the worst terror event in the history of the country, not only showed the extent of the polarisation but also highlights equally important problems besetting Turkey. The first is the idea of, ‘adaptive reality’; whereby different factions have moulded events to reach a different perceived reality. A related concept is that of ‘alienation of other’, whereby existing divisions are further deepened by the creation of an environment of mistrust and recrimination.
The act of “alienation of other” is not something new to Turkey, and has been widely used by political parties at times to consolidate voter base. The side-effects can be toxic and long-lasting, however. It not only makes facilitation of dialogue between political parties nearly impossible (eg, MHP’s isolation of HDP as a party) but can also spread to the general population. A recent example to this was when fans of the national football team protested the moment of silence for the victims of Ankara bombings during Turkey’s football match in Konya, a stronghold for the AKP. There is also evidence of a growing perception among opposition groups that the government has failed to ensure appropriate security during opposition rallies.
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Right. The government has no desire to de-escalate here. This is all about convincing the populace that supporting the Kurds leads to an increased incidence of terrorist attacks.
But to be clear, no one believes this anymore. This is just as much of an international joke as the idea that Washington, Riyadh, and Doha want to "fight terrorism."
But bear in mind, the results aren't in question. That is, as Barclays suggests, Erdogan is going to simply undermine the coalition building process on the way to calling for snap elections until he eventually wins. Sadly, this willing usurpation of the democratic process will continue until the President eventually gets his way and the lira will likely collapse until at some point, voters simply give up on democracy and give Erdogan his majority back.
Additionally, it's important to note that this election comes just hours before the US intends to deploy spec ops with Kurdish forces in Syria. As we discussed earlier today, Washington intends to support those toops with sorties flown from Incirlik. If Erodgan doesn't get the outcome he wants on Sunday and he believes the PKK is responsible, Ankara could begin to re-evaluate its partnership with Washington...
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So that's where "Oh Snap!" comes from.
Things be fucked up out there. Good thing it's just the costumes for Halloween!
Goldman might nail this call on rates. http://hedgeaccordingly.com/2015/08/goldman-rebuts-feds-fischer-reiterat...
Putin knows EVERYTHING https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1d-xbnuvr7c
And that's why IsraHell takes revenge on Russia >> https://goo.gl/g86m4B
the squid
wtf
Supporting the Kurds will lead to more terrorism per Erdogan. But it is fine and dandy to support ISIS terrorists and to be at war with Syria. Turkey will soon be a failed state:
The following examples show the extent of Turkish involvement in the war on Syria:
–Turkey hosts the Political and Military Headquarters of the armed opposition. Most of the political leaders are former Syrians who have not lived there for decades.
–Turkey provides home base for armed opposition leaders. As quoted in the Vice News video “Syria: Wolves of the Valley”: “Most of the commanders actually live in Turkey and commute in to the fighting when necessary.”
–Turkey’s intelligence agency MIT has provided its own trucks for shipping huge quantities of weapons and ammunition to Syrian armed opposition groups. According to court testimony, they made at least 2,000 trips to Syria.
–Turkey is suspected of supplying the chemical weapons used in Ghouta in August 2013 as reported by Seymour Hersh here. In May 2013, Nusra fighters were arrested in possession of sarin but quickly and quietly released by Turkish authorities.
–Turkey’s foreign minister, top spy chief and senior military official were secretly recorded plotting an incident to justify Turkish military strikes against Syria. A sensational recording of the meeting was publicized, exposing the plot in advance and likely preventing it from proceeding.
–Turkey has provided direct aid and support to attacking insurgents. When insurgents attacked Kassab Syria on the border in spring 2014, Turkey provided backup military support and ambulances for injured fighters. Turkey shot down a Syrian jet fighter that was attacking the invading insurgents. The plane landed 7 kilometers inside Syrian territory, suggesting that Turkish claims it was in Turkish air space are likely untrue.
–Turkey has recently increased its coordination with Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
more at:
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/06/25/turkeys-troubling-war-on-syria/
The point, JO, is that Erdogan hates both Assad and the Kurds and he can shilly-shally no longer.
He must either go with Russia and Assad or the US/West and the Kurds.
Assad makes no claims on Turkish soil and is himself on the fabled long enough time line.
The Kurds want Kurdistan as do their children and their children's children.
Erdogan must now poop or get off the pot.
An excellent analysis from commenter "JustObserving". Nailed it beautifully.
Trust the mighty George Soros "Schwartzy"...
"Ata"-Erdogan will prevail through rigging like no Bush or Obama Presidential run has ever witnessed... Much to the dismay of the majority of Turks that want his ass popped but are too afraid to make it happen just like their American and EU counterpart(s)!
A little while ago I wrote that as far as Russia and the West (US) were concerned, Erdogan was playing both ends against the middle.
Yesterday we learned that the German, Dutch and Spanish Patriot missiles that had been deployed and then removed from Turkey 2 or 3 months ago, would not be returning there.
And we also learned that the US pronounced as kosher the moderate Kurds, including the immoderate Syrian Kurdish militia YPG.
Erdogan is apoplectic about any and all Kurds.
So, yes, the CIA will be working its tits off to defeat Erdogan and his Justice and Development party.
And soon Erdogan, Turkey and The Black Sea will be more firmly nestled in the ample and gaseous bosom of Moscow.
Yes, bid the soldier.
The Talmudists have chosen Kurds for their splitting the ME further, although the Kurds were not told that. I pity them, to be ruined by those they trust, the Zionists who have no friends, but merely interests of convenience.
Yes, V, but the West promised the Kurds Kurdistan before any one referred to the Middle East as the Middle East.
You were just a child and don't remember the British Mandate for Palestine. :O)
The fall of the Ottoman Empire resulted in the partitioning of the ME. During that process, the Zionists made certain that the Kurds would be split aomng several resulting countries, thus providin for a long-term fuse that would eventually trigger WWIII from which the Zionists hope they can rise out of the ashes to rule the world.
They did the same thing to Germany after WWI - in order to set the stage for an eventual German war from which they could obtain Palestine.
Had they considered the fact WW3 could leave the world inhabitable. If they then want to rule over a dead rock, let'em - there will be no opposition
Re: Partiya Karkeren Kurdistane (aka PKK)
Both NATO and the EU consider the PKK to be a terrorist organisation... it has been suggested by Obama that the PKK be removed from their list of Foreign Terrorist Organisations, for the benefit of both Turkey and the Syrian situation. Go figure!
Turkey does not concern you. Please focus on Justin Bieber storming out of a concert. Also, CNN has a big feature on how billionaires have more luxury choices than ever.
I told ya'll a while back..... the Kurds are the new kid on the playground. Well, not so new...
In any case, they are bad ass fighters. have women in their army. They're not really religious zealots. The Russians are totally cool with them[even if the Iranians are not]. They are basically the original Aryians that migrated there thousands of years ago from Europe.
They are not empire builders and have a 'homeland' that they've lived in for eons. It's a perfect miniscus between the shia and sunni. I predict the West boosts the Kurds despite the Turks. The west may have a short memory, but being against the Ottoman's is still very fresh from Vienna to Bucharest.
The Russians have no desire to attack the Kurds. They pose no threat to anyone besides Persians, Arabs and Turks who want to see them irradicated and dominate them. There will be no jets of any nation other than Turkey bombing them. Not even Turkey now if American troops are inbedded with them. The Russians also surely would rather deal with the old school Anatolians over the Turks.
Next three months? the West and Russia agree.. let's build up the Kurds. Russia is certainly quick to say fuck the Turks. Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey just take it. they have no choice at this point.
Talmudist wet dream.
One of the cool SOFA agreements is that everything in Turkey belongs to Turkey. Incirlik AB though shared with the US is Turkish property, along with all assets therein. Anything on the ground more than 90 days is Turkish property. All aircraft must leave the country every 90 days or it becomes Turkish AF equipment. Just remember what happened to Cigli AB in Izmir. (after blockade of Turkey - Turks walked into the AB and told the US to get out - all the buildings and equipment still has english writing on it)
edit - when they walked in it was with machine guns locked and loaded. before that the USAF had families living onbase.
To both the US and the Russians there is only one truly 'moderate group'. That's the Kurds. The US obviously made its decesion after dropping weapons to them a few weeks ago and now sending special ops to embedd with them. At the same time, the Russians have shown no beef whatsover with the Kurds. Not a bomb.
White people are backing the Kurdish Horse.
The Kurds have a problem with Turkey not with Russia.
But Putin needs Turkey and its tactical location on Russia's side, while the Kurds have nothing to offer Russia in this expanding struggle.
While Putin won't attack the Kurds, he may drop their cause to appease Turkey.
Which white people would that be?
The US never had a friend in Syria or Iran. We have lost our friends in Iraq. Our friends in Turkey seem to be a little insane. Our Kurdish friends have been steadfast. WE've not let them down and they not us. Build them up? you have a swath from Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. AND they're not really batshit crazy fundemental muzzies that make a border between the shia and sunni. I think even Russia and Europe will get on board with that.
never let the kurds down?
you're funny...
ya know those stories we hear about injured 'isis' fighters turning up in israel hospitals... well this is a reality as in US/Israel shared Airbase called Navatim, with USSA restricted areas scattered about under total secrecy known as #51, #53 and #54!?!
now back to ussa training turkish troops stateside and the Free Syrian Army hand-picked recruits? indeed, these fellows will be in place before the ussa gets its nose under the Syraq Tent, waiting for their marching orders from ' us special forces of all stripes'... some would call them the, 'Vinnell's Corp.Brigade'!
Ref: 'Int'l. Military Education and Finance' [IMET] http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-12-123
'The Management and Oversight of Joint Combined Exchange Training' [JCET] http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO/NSIAD-99-173
'Foreign Military Financing' [FMF] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Foreign_Military_Financing
'Navatim Airbase' [51, 53, and 54 hidden?sites!]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevatim_Airbase
'Camp Bombsteel' [next door to Macedonia and Camp Monteith just twenty miles away?] helping to keep the Bhosphorus Free?!? http://www.globalsecuity.org/military/facility//camp-bombsteel.htm
and lastly our private mercenaries with 'Vinnell Corp, and L-3 Communication, etel. [~23-25 and growing private armies for hire trained in the USSA] etc., etc.,.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L-3_Communications
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Vinnell_Corporation
these ussa boots now on the ground [what a fucking joke] with this plane-downing will create a shitstorm {ukraine/ chechens} that will start next week with an uninvited 'exceptional-unilateralist-empire' doesn't bode well for peace in syraq.
last i checked 'syria is still a sovereign country that hasn't done a fucking thing to the ussa or turkey other than the fact for ussa military hegemony totally corralling the Russian's for no apparent reason other than total world dominance.
Ps. i will go even a step further and predict that the russians will designate red-zones that neither turkey crosses nor the USSA, without the bitter-pillbox taste of pre-WWIII following. China knows its next,... if russia falls and will thus back Putin & Co. with all their resourses. Period!
it doesn't matter, earl. you can blow out a candle, but you cannot blow out a fire. the wind just makes it higher.
militarily, you have a band from Turkey, through Syria and Iraq and into Iran. These were the same people that got gassed in Dessert Storm. It's obviously who we are backing now.
Turkey is part of the western empire, elections there are a non-event like Greece and the rest them.
So where are elections still valid, in your estimation? Only in the East? Russia? China? Iran? Where?
All elections that puts a US backed candidate in office are valid.
Elections in world power countries are (China, Russia, India) are valid but subject to intense criticism by US Dept of State and Western media.
Elections in small countries with resources and strategic locations are on the CIA's to-do list
Depends on your definition of 'democracy', I suppose. If you mean those countries where the ruling elite get their man into office, I would say that most of the world's elections qualify as 'valid'. Otherwise, put Iceland on your list.
Russia, Iraq, Turkey, USA, Iran, Israel
.
ISIS
A Turkey never votes for Christmas, and that is why it is now between a rock and a hard place. Its Donmeh Jews aided terrorists.
Make up your mind, Turkey. Life or death.
Zionist or your own country.
Choose.
Erdogan's AKP has declared war on independent journalism in Turkey: "...after November 1, we will settle up with all of them."
The incumbent gov't are a bunch of sociopaths, just like the rest...
First target of fascists is journalists.
Remember that Turkey's hierarchy are Donmeh jews who aid ISIS.
Also, the majority of 'jews' who claim to be jews are not jews; they are AshkeNAZI, of eastern european descent, a murderous tribe who converted to judaism, but have no DNA link to hebrews. They are liars, thieves, and killers who adopt any name to hide their shame and crimes, as per John Kerry whose real family name is Cohn, a fake jew, a fake American.
Erdogan->Erewhon->Nowhere
If you acknowledge its existence ahead of time, it's not a black swan. - Jack Handy, "Deep Thoughts"