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Peak Unicorn

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Things are getting crowded in the once-exclusive unicorn club...

 

This is all still-private unicorns since 2011 and charted them based on when they first joined the unicorn club.

(click image for large legible version)

While initially the chart shows unicorns being created at a relatively calm pace, the rhythm accelerates noticeably in late 2013 (right around the time Aileen Lee wrote her famous post coining the term unicorn in November 2013). Since then, there has been an explosion in unicorn creation, with over 60 new unicorns in 2015 alone.

 

Source: CB Insights via Valuewalk.com

 

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Sun, 11/01/2015 - 20:56 | 6738268 JackT
JackT's picture

Unicorns are rare but we have to believe they there...

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 20:59 | 6738271 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

...in all glorious skittle color!

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:20 | 6738325 Macchendra
Macchendra's picture

"The start up is a magical place. It's a place where expenses are someone else's problem. It's a place where that pesky thing called revenue is never an issue. It's a place where you can spend other people's money until you figure out a way to make your own.  It's a place where the laws of business physics don't apply.   The problem with this magical place is it's a fairy tale. The truth is every business, new or old, is governed by the same set of market forces and economic rules. Revenue in, expenses out. Turn a profit or wind up gone. Startups try to ignore this reality. They are run by people trying to postpone the inevitable, i.e., that moment when their business has to grow up, turn a profit, and be a real, sustainable business.  Anyone who takes a "we'll figure out how to profit in the future" attitude to business is being ridiculous. That's like building a rocket ship but starting off by saying, "Let's pretend gravity doesn't exist." A business without a path to profit isn't a business, it's a hobby." - "Rework"

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 02:31 | 6738877 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

True, but these days connected people can play the game of make-believe business and have their scam valued in the billions in an IPO, while they still haven't even got a business plan.  Zero Hedge covered this, what, last year?

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 02:56 | 6738899 OzFan
OzFan's picture

X2

Rework doesnt realise its a scam....its not about business.....its a wall st scam dressig up  geeks and their lets-be-the-next-facebook dreams into something theyll never ever be.

Fcking ipo scam-sandwhich

 

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 03:11 | 6738905 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Phony "money" funding phony "businesses" making phony "products" catering to phony "customers."

The honest businessman is left to collect the pittance that is the fallen fruit, while the orchard's abundant trees are harvested by the deceitful. Only the meteors can give us a graceful end now.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:15 | 6738311 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The Federal Reserve implies they exist and are plentiful.

Just like their member banks and their mark to fantasy accounting.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:36 | 6738369 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Value of any item is what next buyer is to be willing pay. Is not matter cost basis, or rational sentiment, is only what is worth to NEXT market participant on buy side. This is basis of "Greater Fool" theory of investment strategy. Fortunate for Wall Street Investor and Barnum Bailey, there is many many fool line up and consumption is plentiful.

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 07:32 | 6739046 Arnold
Arnold's picture

That copper hoarding will be a pay day some day, Boris.

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 08:36 | 6739117 Slomotrainwreck
Slomotrainwreck's picture

Value of any item is what next buyer is to be willing pay

That's what they said about China but look how well ...

...never mind.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 20:57 | 6738270 idontcare
idontcare's picture

PSQ to the moon

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:00 | 6738272 Grandad Grumps
Grandad Grumps's picture

Confusing price with value.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:08 | 6738288 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

they look more like mules with mcdonalds drinking cups glued to their noses, to me .....

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:10 | 6738293 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

The crap really piles up, doesn't it?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:14 | 6738308 Bernanke'sDaddy
Bernanke'sDaddy's picture

Any updates on Theranos?

Has Ms. Holmes accidentally shot herself 14 times in the head with a nailgun?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:27 | 6738338 DrZipp
DrZipp's picture

Yeah they filed to sell 200 million more paper.  At a $3 per share valuation higher than the last round.  Now the company is worth $10.5 billion on paper.  Not a bad week for her; her putative net worth went up a billion.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:15 | 6738309 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

I really am feeling my age after reading that chart....billions of valuations, all dependent on magical fairy dust, rainbow colored skittle shit, imaginary profits and digital impulses.

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 02:59 | 6738900 OzFan
OzFan's picture

Wonderful summary

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:16 | 6738315 Bernanke'sDaddy
Bernanke'sDaddy's picture

Also:

HOW THE FUCK IS A SURVEY COMPANY (SURVEYMONKEY) WORTH $1+BILLION BERNANKE BUX??

Sheryl Sandberg's late husband--the one with the treadmill "accident" used to be the CEO.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:23 | 6738331 Superdave532
Superdave532's picture

+1 for Bernanke Bucks

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:17 | 6738317 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The existence of unicorns is more likely than FB being worth $300B in 2015 dollars.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 23:20 | 6738613 nosam
nosam's picture

Faceebook is wort $300B...to the CIA. The best tool of mass surveillance it created.

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 09:34 | 6739275 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

It is worth more than that to them, much more.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:20 | 6738318 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

even with super unicorns, it looks like 0.07% success rate, getting rid of the "successful" one hit wonders that are the equivalent of pet rocks, rubik cubes, frisbees and hoola hoops that probably would have been called unicorns if anyone had thought of it in past decades, these pay outs are way below success rates in other small businesses in any other area (1 in 30?).

unicorns are about a valid as start up bands and dj's - a complete fabrication of value and an excuse for hot money to get soaked by fees and expenses to fund idjuts lifestyles in the "social network revolution".

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:20 | 6738324 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Alphabet Inc is priced at half a trillion so why not?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:22 | 6738329 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Wonder what form ther Unicorn killer will take.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 22:13 | 6738448 joego1
joego1's picture

I wonder when the fed will turn off the containment field?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:29 | 6738341 Kina
Kina's picture

The are indeed worth $1bn+ USD (lire, rupiah...)

There is only one Unicorn, the value of the USD.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:28 | 6738345 Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

Snicker.  And you guys thought it was a $700 Billion bailout.  Sheeple.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:31 | 6738354 RyeWhiskey
RyeWhiskey's picture

S.C.A.M

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:32 | 6738358 Reaper
Reaper's picture

The stock market hawkers lie to sell their goods.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:37 | 6738370 aldousd
aldousd's picture

I do think it's ridiculous that they are valued so high; however, I can't help but feel that y'all are jealous. Righteous Indignation anyone?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:37 | 6738371 aldousd
aldousd's picture

I do think it's ridiculous that they are valued so high; however, I can't help but feel that y'all are jealous. Righteous Indignation anyone?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 22:47 | 6738501 herkomilchen
herkomilchen's picture

Righteous indignation because their contrived $1B valuations stemming from artificially low interest rates and artificially expanded credit come at our expense, through inflation and malformed employment markets.  And our shorts of the resulting overpriced stocks are blown out by Fed-backed stock purchases to manipulate stock prices ever-upward, also paid for by us through inflation.  So yeah, righteous indignation at that.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 21:49 | 6738396 adr
adr's picture

How the fuck is a hipster eyeglass company worth over $1 billion?

At least 1999 felt like there was promise in the future. This is just pure theft.

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 03:05 | 6738901 OzFan
OzFan's picture

Fcking serious?

Oh man, people going to get fcking crushed.

We need us a black swan to get this par-tay started. 

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 22:12 | 6738447 IronForge
IronForge's picture

Fluff.  Any of them making over 1B USD in Gross Revenues or Net Profits?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 22:16 | 6738452 armageddon addahere
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At the peak of the sixties bull market the hottest stocks were Minnie Pearl Fried Chicken, National Student Marketing (they sold class rings and beer steins) Four Seasons Nursing Homes and a gaggle of computer leasing companies.

Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose.

The more change, the more it's the same thing.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 22:24 | 6738478 franciscopendergrass
franciscopendergrass's picture

We are about to reach peak unicorn bullshit

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 22:30 | 6738494 Solar
Solar's picture

OK its time for Charlie the Unicorn and Candy Mountain!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsGYh8AacgY

 

Shun the non-believer!

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 22:46 | 6738535 geekz_rule
geekz_rule's picture

sssshhhuuuunnnnn!

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 09:47 | 6739304 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

Crap.. I figured Charlie the Unicorn and Candy Mountains was code for Charlies Sheen, a pile of blow, and two hookers with huge breasts.

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 16:24 | 6740742 Solar
Solar's picture

Shun the non-believer!  Shunnnnnnnn  nnnn  nnnnnn.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 22:46 | 6738538 geekz_rule
geekz_rule's picture

this is NOT evidence of recovery. this is Evidence of Oligarchs tightening their grip.. on OUR throats.

Monopolization ALWAYS was the real enemy. not communist states, or bs manufactured enemies like isis.

Monopolization by Banksters. through complex corporations, LLC's, offshore shelters, loopholes, lies, manipulation, control of government and policy

1) deregulation of financial markets
2) deregulation of global trade
3) crushing Nations by eliminating it's revenue, its ability to prosecute fraud
4) privatize Everything - including necessary infrastructure ( water, roads etc)

by those 4 steps, wall st banksters have come to OWN IT ALL.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 23:01 | 6738578 venturen
venturen's picture

Doesn't look like they have enough billions for the $4 Trillion FED Slush Fund

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 23:36 | 6738659 Bear
Bear's picture

This ia a great graphic ... These are mostly tech companies and this portends NQ going to 2100

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 00:08 | 6738702 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Gargoyles are going to feast on Unicorns going into London.

   Stay FLAT.

  As they feast, we prepare. ;-)

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 01:34 | 6738832 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

A couple of Volvo driving lesbian school teachers had one of their unicorns they keep fenced in their back yard, killed. Found it cut for meat and its horn for China. More valudictorans from Guatamala moving in, crushing the illegal job market. On the plus side you can get your lawn cut, house cleaned, barn fixed for food money.

Green shoots!

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 01:51 | 6738842 Nexus789
Nexus789's picture

Silly question, but do any of them post revenues? A profit? Nah, an even silier question.

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 03:10 | 6738904 Stlouiemike
Stlouiemike's picture

So far corporate earnings season surprisingly has buoyed the stock market, helping the main indexes to some of their best gains in years.

“About half of S&P 500 companies have reported with 67% beating on bottom-line with an earnings surprise of plus 3.4%. More importantly, guidance activity so far has been better than feared.” strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas at J.P. Morgan said in his report.

 

According to Susie Chang at MarketWatch it has nothing to do with profits and losses, only how well companies complied with the analyst weather adjusted last minute backroom forecast, who cares if they are low and headed lower.

 

BTFD

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 03:18 | 6738908 biggestbrothero...
biggestbrotherofthemall@yahoo.com's picture

Facebooks VC's buy advertising on FB!

 

They push the value of the company up so that not so slowly zuck and sandberg can off load their shares as fast as the stupid public will let them.

 

Its a humongo mess.

 

As for Airbnb ITS AN APP!

and UBER likewise. Like FB no sustainble advantage, nothing not copyable.

 

A completey and utter joke funded by Bernanke Yellen free money on the backs of middle class Americans whose jobs outsourced to China.

Can you blame Silly Con Valley for making out like bandits in a once in a millenium scam.

 

Now thats not to say taht Google doesnt rule the world. It does. But Butt book and the rest?

 

I mean you would be a moron.  And the next crash will be the whole world in SYNC!

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 04:21 | 6738936 northern vigor
northern vigor's picture

Hmmm...the dot.com bubble of 1999 comes to mind.

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 06:15 | 6738976 Angry Plant
Angry Plant's picture

China has ghost cities US has ghost corporations. They 're building nice fancy office buildings and staffing them with nice shiny twenty something college graduates. But they actually have no product to sale. Most of these kids should have already learned the valueable lesson of a business needing something to sale worth keeping them employed. Instead they bassically get up and go play pretend corporation every day.

The current DoT com bubble has already burst it's just the venture captialists have learned how to play the weekend at bernies scam to prefection.

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