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Turkey's Ruling Party Gets "Surprising" Boost In Election As Erdogan Poised For Victory

Tyler Durden's picture




 

On Saturday evening we previewed what we said could end up being another black swan for markets. Turkey headed back to the polls on Sunday for the second time in five months as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attempts to win back AKP's absolute majority on the way to garnering parliamentary support for a bid to alter the constitution and consolidate his power.

You can read our full election preview here, but suffice to say Erdogan has essentially plunged his country into civil war in an effort to convince the electorate that in the absence of a dictator (i.e. him) they'll be chaos in the streets.

This campaign (which amounts to government-sponsored terrorism against citizens) is inextricably bound up with the conflict in Syria, as the PKK are affiliated with Syrian Kurds battling ISIS and vying for the right to declare an autonmous region on Turkey's border. HDP, the political party that effectively cost AKP its single-party rule in June, is affiliated with PKK.

This is all made immeasurably more complicated by the fact that the US is set to embed soldiers with the YPG and fly missions in support of the ground troops from a Turkish airbase. 

It's all unbelievable convoluted and we again encourage you to review our previous coverage but as it relates to today's election, the simple takeaway is this: Erdogan is hell bent on restoring AKP's majority and that means that the results are a foregone conclusion. If he didn't get it today, he'd just undermine the coalition building process gain and hold a third round of elections, and then a fourth, and a fifth until he got what he wanted and in the interim, there'd be still more violence.

And so, against that backdrop, reports are now beginning to trickle in that in fact Erdogan has managed to engineer a huge swing in voter sentiment as AKP is polling at 52%. 

  • CNN-TURK SAYS TURKEY'S AKP LIKELY TO WIN SINGLE-PARTY GOVT
  • TURKEY'S AKP HAS 2M MORE VOTES THAN IN JUNE AT 85% COUNTED: AA
  • TURKEY'S AKP SINGLE-PARTY GOVT `GUARANTEED': STATE-RUN ANADOLU

From AP:

State-run TRT television says that preliminary results in Turkey's crucial parliamentary election suggest a surprising boost for the ruling party.

 

It said that with 76 percent of the votes counted, the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, has won 51 percent, which would comfortably restore its ruling majority.

 

The result could still change significantly as votes come in from disparate regions of the country.

So there you go folks: Ankara's NATO-sponsored civil war with the PKK combined with who knows what manner of ballot box manipulation and outright coercion looks set to complete Erdogan's subversion of Turkey's fragile "democracy."

On the bright side, this may bode well for the plunging lira.

 

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Sun, 11/01/2015 - 12:36 | 6737141 blabam
blabam's picture

Islam wins. Bye bye modern Turkey. 

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 12:41 | 6737152 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

It doesn't matter who votes or how they vote...all that matters is who "counts" the votes...DIEBOLD anyone?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:08 | 6737204 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

Is Turkey a democracy?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:45 | 6737295 Publicus
Publicus's picture

Democracy doesn't work, we already know that.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:48 | 6737307 Haager
Haager's picture

Yes, as long as it is an ally.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51PiS4FJI_Q

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:51 | 6737313 KJWqonfo7
KJWqonfo7's picture

An ally like... Israel or maybe the French..?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 14:37 | 6737433 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

Turkey is Mexico.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 19:41 | 6738091 Keyser
Keyser's picture

It appears that Erdogan has taken a page from American politics... If you can't win based on merit, then rig the polls... 

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 12:42 | 6737153 Rhett72
Rhett72's picture

Not Islam.  Turkey has been ruled by Donmeh crypto-Jews since Ataturk.  Read "The Secret Jews" by Rabbi Joachim Prinz for a Jewish scholar's perspective on how Islam in Turkey was hijacked by the followers of Sabbatai Zevi, the infamous False Messiah of Ottoman times. 

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 12:46 | 6737161 blabam
blabam's picture

A for fucks sake not another jewish conspiracy. 

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 12:54 | 6737180 giggler321
giggler321's picture

If the sh*t sticks there's probably something solid...

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 12:59 | 6737190 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

What are you talking about? It's not ANOTHER Jewish conspiracy, it's the SAME Jewish conspiracy that they prattle on about everywhere and always. If the Jews were really as all-pervasive and all-powerful as these kooks believe, they would certainly be out hunting down the last remnant of truth-speakers trying to expose their secret world-ruling cabal. 

That's what ZH is, you know, a secret Jewish plot to get the "intellectuals" to voluntarily expose themselves and thus self-identify as dangerous persons to be deported to the slave camps once they are all set up and fully operational.

Smart anti-zionists would keep their mouths shut and silently labor for the return of freedom. But there are no smart anti-zios-- only loud ones.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:09 | 6737208 Johnny Horscaulk
Johnny Horscaulk's picture

While many, even most of the a-s conspiracy theories are batshit crazy - your notion that Jews/Zionists {I'm not going to parse the difference} have little influence on US foreign policy is fucking preposterous.

You are an uncritical, perpetual apologist for Israel, and disingenuously deny Israel Firster influence which any honest person can see is far beyond what is reasonable for for a minority of a minority [i.e. chickenhawk/militarist Jews are a minority of Jews] who are primarily loyal to a foreign state.

And their influence has been open, obvious, and hostile.

http://www.voltairenet.org/article178638.html
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2004/01/lie-factory
http://www.ihr.org/leaflets/jewishlobby.shtml

How many times have leaders of foreign countries been allowed to address Congress twice and forced we the public to watch them bow and scrape to a dissembling psychopath warmonger leader of a tiny foreign state?

http://www.thesleuthjournal.com/syria-another-zionist-war-for-suckers-vi...

Give us a break.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 15:12 | 6737482 nnnnnn
nnnnnn's picture

 

 

israel is a conspiracy theory too

and israel always belonged to the white skinned semitic people from europe

there was no genocide of palestinian people 

the only the genocide ever happend is the genocide of jews  -  the holocaust

usa did not made up the holocaust, same as they did not made up 9/11  

 

all we jews want is peace   and rule your money and media and kill you

you stupid anti-semites

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 19:47 | 6738097 Keyser
Keyser's picture

And for a balanced reponse, horse shit... Fuck you and your demonic history... 

http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/expelled.htm

http://www.eretzyisroel.org/~jkatz/expulsions.html

 

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:09 | 6737209 Eirik Magnus Larssen
Eirik Magnus Larssen's picture

Go take your medication.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 12:48 | 6737166 Johnny Horscaulk
Johnny Horscaulk's picture

there were donmeh jews in leadership positions in the young turks without doubt.

but that doesn't mean they are in charge now.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:10 | 6737211 Johnny Horscaulk
Johnny Horscaulk's picture

ok 5 junks. Who can provide a modicum of proof I am wrong?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:49 | 6737312 Christophe2
Christophe2's picture

Uh, how about YOU offer some proof regarding what you say?  You don't seem to be convincing anyone with your baseless assumptions.

Gee wiz: people have been lying and cheating each other for millenia, but there's no reason for that to continue, huh?

The Talmud teaches its victims to victimize people and parasite on them.  Has that changed?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 15:14 | 6737496 Raymond_K._Hessel
Raymond_K._Hessel's picture

"there were donmeh jews in leadership positions in the young turks without doubt. but that doesn't mean they are in charge now."

Then he asked for proof this is wrong.

But rather than provide any proof at all, you throw a tantrum???

Well, actually - if there are no secret jews ruling turkey - how do you prove it? seems like you, so confident that secret jews rule turkey, should be able to provide evidence.

*I* tend to think you're right, since conversos were all over spain and italy and the young turks, but still - if he is saying there are none, and there are none...

how do you prove a negative?

How do I "prove" there are no unicorns?

You're the one asserting it, the bop is on you.

Otherwise why not walk back your claim since you are basing it on no evidence at all?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 17:28 | 6737780 jefferson32
jefferson32's picture

Actually you are quite right, the Donmeh allegation pertains to the secular Turks, i.e. the heritage of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, i.e. the turkish military establishment, which is quite opposed to AKP (or at least was opposed, before the uber-purge in military ranks some years back). I would speculate that Erdogan's contention with Israel (following the flotilla incident) isn't fake, even if there are still obvious convergence points (e.g. ISIS).

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:39 | 6737284 44magnum
44magnum's picture

Read "The Secret Jews" by Rabbi Joachim Prinz , Oh he must be a self hater!

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 12:50 | 6737168 Eirik Magnus Larssen
Eirik Magnus Larssen's picture

Erdogan is first and foremost a nationalist. This is especially ill news for the Kurds of Turkey.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 12:55 | 6737181 Salah
Salah's picture

Erdogan scares the shit out of those Euro-Manginas in the world's largest geriatric petting zoo.  His supporters love it.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 12:42 | 6737150 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

I don't know one Turk who supports this radical. Even though I do not know many Turks, the ones I do know say they are worried their nation has turned into a civil unrest situation. Tourism is dying on the vine as fewer and fewer people desire to visit anywhere in Turkey. Cruise ships avoid their coast now and instead have moved their ships to "safe places" like NZ and Australia.

I doubt I'll be able to visit a peaceful Turkey again in my lifetime which is very sad because your basic middle class Turk is hard working and friendly. They have great food and scenery also.

 

Oh well.

 

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 12:49 | 6737167 DetectiveStern
DetectiveStern's picture

Barely any citizens of any country support radicals. Most people just want something to eat and drink, a roof over their heads and a future for their children. It is the rulers and global elite who support the radicals.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 12:56 | 6737184 giggler321
giggler321's picture

>>...Most people just want something to eat and drink, a roof over their heads...

We don't even get that in the UK.  Elections are not important IMHO, only those who count votes and their agenda

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 12:59 | 6737191 DetectiveStern
DetectiveStern's picture

Oh I know and that's why the UK is such a hate fuelled place now. Doesn't even matter who counts the votes here all the parties are exactly the same anyway.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:26 | 6737245 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

The elites and politicians in most countries now ignore their citizens in blatant arrogance and who is to stop them?  We saw 87% of the people in the USA, Dems and Rep, say "NO" to Obamacare, yet the Drone Master-in-Chief forced it on the people.

That's one reason we see the huge popularity of people like Trump and Ben carson; people are sick and tired of the career corrupt politicans.

It's the way it is in Germany and Sweden also.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 19:10 | 6738021 Big_Sister_Is_W...
Big_Sister_Is_Watching's picture

So far having control of the MSM has allowed the Masters of the Universe to confuse and distract the majorities from believing the "crazy conspiracy theories"... the moment that start changing significantly you will find more and more internet "issues" making alternate sources of information disappear.  All is in readiness, just need a good war now.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 15:46 | 6737572 layman_please
layman_please's picture

that's a sad state of affairs. what has happened to the men with the mentality of give me liberty, or give me death?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 12:42 | 6737157 LoveTruth
LoveTruth's picture

Turky=ISIS in brutality and human rights abuses.

Russia should never build nuclear power stations in Turkey, they will build an nuclear bomb and eventually Islamist will use it. 

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:01 | 6737194 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

So what? It's not as though the US has never used them.

All it does, is give a reason to send them all to hell, swimming in a sea of glass.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 12:57 | 6737186 RawPawg
RawPawg's picture

i admit it,I'm clueless on this new "Turkey Equation"...with that being said

Prediction going forward?

 

Help a Clueless brother out,y'all

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:29 | 6737253 SFopolis
SFopolis's picture

I second that, RawPawg.  I sadly don't fully understand the situation and haven't done my reading.  All Turks I meet are in the US, so prob. have education and more liberal bent.  Def. Don't like Erdowan.  Sounds like a fuck story all around, though.  Severy Right wing Islamists posing as moderates?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 14:01 | 6737354 RawPawg
RawPawg's picture

as if i/we ain't got enough to worry about(a upcoming collapse,downed airplanes,China,etc,etc),now this Turkey stuff

bout to just hang it up(beyond my control),and go hit the Xbox 360 till sumptin decides to give.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:07 | 6737201 Teh Finn
Teh Finn's picture
Mustafa Kemal Atatürk 

spins in his grave.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:09 | 6737206 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Russia, Iran and Iraq should enlist the Kurds in a permanent fight against ISIS, by carving out a homeland for them in Iraq and Syria, and them support them in their secessionist struggle within Turkey itself. A la Kosovo liberation.

That would lead to a long term conflict, that would deny the Saudis their Turkey pipeline.

The more separate states you have there, the less likely they are to agree, and the less likely a pipeline to Europe.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:21 | 6737238 rejected
rejected's picture

Like in the USA,,, Election back guarantee on those Diebold election computers.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:29 | 6737255 NubianSundance
NubianSundance's picture

Looks like suffering ahead for Kurdish population. Although many may say a rigged vote there has always been a heavy nationalist vote for the very pompous Erdoghan.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:47 | 6737304 PoasterToaster
PoasterToaster's picture

Turkey should be handed over to the Kurds entirely.  Time for some more nation building.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 13:52 | 6737317 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

Turkey can now join the EU, fits perfectly with those despots in Brussels.

 

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 15:08 | 6737443 Joe A
Joe A's picture

The elections were rigged. In one area the opposition party went from 75% in the previous polls to 1.2% today. A Kurdish party in a Kurdish area loses 73.8 percent while Erdogan's party gains almost 20%. How is that possible? https://twitter.com/nbbrk/status/660884967120064512

Erdogan is a dangerous man that wants to restore the Ottoman Empire with him as Kalif. Make no mistake, he will want to establish complete rule over Turkey, rout out the Kurds and will prey on Syria and the Balkans.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 14:56 | 6737461 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

At least Erdogan wants to change the constitution to cement his dictatorship.

All Obama needs is his pen and Congress rolls over like a dog.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 15:08 | 6737484 Raymond_K._Hessel
Raymond_K._Hessel's picture

Who would vote for this insane clown?

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 15:11 | 6737491 Karaio
Karaio's picture

I know Turkish in Turkey and Germany.

I do not know any Turkish in Brazil.

From truth to truth I tell you, this is very good!

hehe.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 15:17 | 6737506 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Looks like Turkey is living up to its name.

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 15:46 | 6737575 numapepi
numapepi's picture

Vote Ergodan and never have to vote again!

Sun, 11/01/2015 - 17:17 | 6737778 VW Nerd
VW Nerd's picture

Gee, how's that happen?

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 03:29 | 6738914 NordikAvenger
NordikAvenger's picture

Pre-election polling were off by 6 percentage points.  How typical is this?

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 08:45 | 6739139 vheissu
vheissu's picture

Actually the last poll results was nearly on target. But media does not allow to promote a poll result that shows AKP above 45%. Most of the polls are only psy-ops against AKP voters by western media.

Everbody should really pay attention what happens in Turkey, if goverment turns their back to western elite, stop being a puppet and actaully care about the people, suddenly you became  a facist dictator, or isis asister, terror spreader,

or islamist bla bla bla.. all bullshit. Luckily turkish citizens are smart enough to see that.

Mon, 11/02/2015 - 08:40 | 6739127 vheissu
vheissu's picture

Amount of ignorance in comment section is too damn high! 

Fact 1. Erdogan did not run in this election, he is already president and will be till 2019.

Fact 2. Election was not rigged. Turkish election is incredibly open and honest. All the running party members + lots of civil orgizations checks all the votes independently. They always came to the same conclusion. As a matter of fact Turkey probably does to most honest public elections in the world.

Fact 3. AKP is not islamist at all. Who promotes this crap, best guess 1/4th of turkish public is atheist including me, no one ever bother me for it. AKP is completly secular party and very succseful one.

Fact 4. ZH is kind of always wrong about Turkey. Dunno why it is sad, really these articles about Turkey is delusional.

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