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Stunned By Today's Furious Surge: Here Is What Happened
Another month-start massive short-squeeze...
Today saw the biggest short-squeeze in a month... +3.26% vs S&P 1.15%
Which is the same as we saw at the start of October...
It may be worth noting however that while today's massive squeeze created a 1.15% rally in the S&P, it appears the momo is losing its mojo as when they did the same in October it created a 2.5% rally in the S&P.
Charts: Bloomberg
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It's the only way they can create returns in these markets. Temporary tricks and high risk gimmicks.
Only winning move is not to play
This is how the CNBC puppets can read their script of "Biggest gains in a month since 2011" "Investors who sat out this month missed ..." and other b.s. until most of America is numb and believes that all is well in the land of investments. Just in time to have them bitch-slapped awake and depressed when TPTB let it all fall apart again, only to start the whole charade over again with more medicated "markets" that no longer have price discovery or, well, anything that actually would match the definition of a market.
Ok, did I miss-hear? Was that "we just flushed our cash", or was it "we are flushed with cash"?
They are not native speakers, so it is easy for them to mispeak. They said, "We are flushed with cash" and what they really meant to say was, "we have flushed the cats". It is a colloquial saying in Slavic orphenages. Roughly translated it has something to do with badgers, wine, quite a bit of dishonesty, and being a somewhat less-than-forthcoming person in the holidays.
why do you even bother "trading" in rigged "market" farce (unlimited "money", etc)
just start trading bitcoin, no one can just print imaginary "bitcoins", because its secured by decentralized trust machine (blockchain), science, math and open consensus.
and unlike other commodities it has finite, constant rate supply
BitCoin is an unregulated market, and any government or big player could very easily pump and dump it to their heart's desire. If you want to use it as an alternative currency, please don't let me dissuade you. It is a great alternative currency, but if you're going to trade it, you deserve to get fleeced just as much as people in the rigged markets.
Anyone who takes profits by buying and selling something for a flip without providing any good or service to justify the profit margin is a parasite, and is just as much part of the problem as the globalists and their banking tools. You either add productive capacity to the economy or you leech off of it. The people who are sucking the system of its resources are no different than those who are doing the rigging. It's just a matter of what hand you were dealt in life and what you can get away with.
well, keep investing in government debt, be a nice little cog
(they are going to default on it eventually, i just laugh at people who never learn from history, and are as responsible for the problems as governments they support)
Those who participate deserve what they get. Its everyone else who has not a fucking thing in the world to do with this who will get fucked royal, due to no fault of their own. Like fucking drunks intent on burning everything down...for just one more high.
WOPR!
Got.to.get.to.Black.Friday.......so.we.can.get.to.Santa.Rally.......so.we.can.get.to.the.Janaury.Effect.......so.can.get.to.Old.NFL.Super.Bowl.winner.
Buy 3 days before the end of the month and sell 3 days after the end of the month. If you got a screen and the tools go and back test that one. Your jaw will drop.
i just might test that one with money after i'm sure this isn't headed for a double top...seems to be the pattern for the last few years
BOJ has nothing to do with this, k? It's all on the Kamikaze Limit Up brigade.
Sincerely,
Kuroda
Definitely looks like it's loosing steam, definitely appeared to be streched at the close, and AH.
You couldn't be more wrong.
The fact that it's already starting, so far before option expiration tells us the first big shortsqueeze will be massive.
There's a risk that average free float won't cover it and those who wrote the puts will be decimated.
Maybee, you called it right near the late summer lows as I recall, saying do not get sucked into shorts. But its the call writers (not put writers) being hunted now. Personally I think the longs will be keen to take some profits now. But mostly its just machines moving gthe price to where it goes with least volume !
My bad, typo.
Well, the longs now is something different.
There are very very few long retail investors, mostly banks and certain funds who cooked it all up.
First of all, a drop of the dow for 20% was in the cards.
That happened.
And suddenly, stories about a crash without real numbers and fake graphs started to pop up all over the financial blog sites.
The weird part was that they where all wrong and wrong in the same kind of way.
As a side note, I know how to push a viral message. Some happen by accident, some cost a shitload but are doctored.
And these posts looked like doctored viral post about a crash.
Somebody lured people into shorting this market, hidden in 50% truth and facts and 50% bulkshit.
I was paranoid about it from the beginning because everything was different but the info was written in the same style and the graphs where all wrong in the same way.
So is this "Liftoff?"
Yes...pre lift off, the market must be UP, it must LIKE lift off
There is sooooo much money circulating around the world because of all the QE and it only has so many places it can be invested. Until the central banks start shrinking the money supply all this cash will just move around from market to market. As investments (whether it be equities, bonds or real estate) reach ridiculous highs in any market then the profits will be pulled out and invested in another market. Its a game of creating bubbles and taking profits, creatig the next bubble and taking more profits and on and on. Don't you think that all the big hedge fund, bank and investment folks on Wall Street, in London, Frankfurt, the Mideast and Asia talk to one and other? Don't you think there is some aspect of market manipulation going on as the money 'picks' the winners? This shit will never end because the Central banks are too scared to lower rates and shrink the money supply. Instead they let the Banksters get away (again) with continued criminal behavior and HFT's make billions to pump up the daily volume numbers, without which the market would look broken...which it is.
I would love to see a chart of where all the money is flowing and where the majority of the whole is going: what geo area (country and cities) and what market segment (equities, bonds or RE). I'd also like to see how much of the total is invested in derivatives and what type and where...this would pant a pretty good picture of the shit that is going on.
Sacrificed some dividends but took profits in big oil companies today. 100% cash again.
But I have a question regarding this article. Why is it assumed short squeezing is driving this market upward?
I will be the first to admit I have been flat out wrong on this market. When the Dow dove to 6000 I didn't, for the most part, ride it back up to 18,000. And yet I see it said over and over again how this market is going to tank. Frankly, I have no idea how this market levitated off of 6000. I just didn't see the 300% rise coming off the bottom. So, why, again, is this market going to tank? I understand none of the fundamentals are there and it should have never gotten here but here it is. What's to stop it from shooting higher once again? How long can this go on? Apparently a very long time.
XLE was a big winner. I assume energy was prominent on the 'most shorted' list.
Bernanke said (a long time ago), that the Federal Reserve could buy the entire stock market. It can just take a bunch of newly printed ones and zeroes and do that. It's not like anyone is auditing them. That said, they could very well run this market waaaaaaay up a flag pole. It's not like anyone is auditing them.
I'd have been stunned if today didn't go as it did.
Thanks to ZH, too many retail investors have been shorting the market. The retail investors think they have "inside info" on the markets by visiting this side, so they short like crazy.
That means we don't crash very far, because retail investors take profits on any downturn. It means there will be no repeat of '08-09.
So by extension, ZH readers are responsible for the up market since they are too busy covering shorts? This is your reasoning? Or trolling?
Your causality view is mixed-up.
Retail investor shorting the market. You fucking serious. How many retail investors even know you can short the market.
Buy any ProShares UltraShort ETF. There ya go, stupid simple. The fund manager are buying puts on the market. Whenever the market tanks, they exercise the puts, and the market floats back up.
Most retail I investors don't know what an etf is. Also the small amount that do do not have unlimited funds to fuel a market. Just get ballls long and don't waste your time here cause you will be so rich. You have unlocked the holy grail. You smart bastard.
Maybe in China, maybe in China! Do you remember the Bob-The-Bear article? Bob said everyone was going to get pants'd, and so far he has been right.
So based on Oct chart, S&P goes up no matter what?
This bitch is about to fold up like a cardboard suitcase. Utterly laughable.
Don't disagree that it should. But how long does it laugh at those who are not in the market?
The market moves up and sideways with a few downturns to squeeze the longs once in a while, then rinse and repeat. They cannot keep the narrative of "everything is awesome" until they are ready for the reset. There is no viable solution in place to replace the USD fraud and until it is or we go to world war, then "everything is awesome".
There's pretty significant divergence in that chart, when you look at ES levels relative to most shorted at the beginning of October.
Are you suggesting that most shorted needs to catch up to ES levels Tyler? [monthly chart]
Forgot the </sarc> tag
Don't forget all the "money sitting on the sidelines."
What really happened is that USDJPY and CL ratcheted higher all day, starting at 10pm last night for USDJPY and 7am this morning for CL.
TPTB have perfected the art of ramping up the algo fuel during the trading day and letting it settle back down after hours. No fuss, no muss. See some clear examples from today as well as the past week at:
http://pebblewriter.com/ratcheting-stocks-higher/
That's a stretch. USDJPY was just loosely correlated with SPX. CL not at all.
Loosely correlated? I'm sorry, but if you watched the markets all day long every day as I do, you'd know there's very little that matters anywhere near as much as the fluctuations of USDJPY. The fundamental link is the yen carry trade: http://pebblewriter.com/the-yen-carry-trade-explained/
But, since USDJPY has flatlined over the past 11 months, stocks are easily nudged higher or lower by mere perceptions regarding whether the USDJPY will approach/reverse at key Fib levels or moving averages. One recent post shows some detail on this. http://pebblewriter.com/what-really-drives-stock-prices/
If nothing else, check out the weekly chart -- where the correlation is quite obvious.
wait until draghi talks about buying stocks. the wont get another penny of my cash. sp 2500 by x-mas. i sleep at night now. no more casino.
Every thing is awesome...I want to believe, I want to believe...
...I just can't...
There are just too many (lies) questionable answers and unanswered questions on too many issues for me to believe. It really would be good time to be optimistic though, wouldn't it?
If market tops were picked so easily we'd all be invited to the Bildersburg conference and other elite events.
"Is that water on the horizon Joe?"
"Sure looks like it, lets keep walking."
We ShortSqueezed some folks.....better luck next month!
We ShortSqueezed some folks.....better luck next month!
The whole "folks" meme got old about a year ago. I get it. Obama uses "folks" and "the American people" ad nauseum. It's not funny anymore, no matter how true it is. And that, is the real shame.
Hard to stay short when it becomes obvious to everyone that the Fed will never, ever be able to raise rates by more than an irrelevant number of basis points. May as well own a stock even if it is completely over valued, the earnings aren't growing or even if they are going down because there is no alternative nor will there be any alternative ever.
Soon, the Fed will start running ads promoting the stock market like the state lottery, "With rates forever at zero, you got to be in it to win it."
Then why not go long, if the Fed will never raise rates? You can always get out later.
Short VXX. It will eventually decay to zero.
short TASR it's the gift that keeps on giving.
The market moves up and sideways with a few downturns to squeeze the longs once in a while, then rinse and repeat. They cannot keep the narrative of "everything is awesome" until they are ready for the reset. There is no viable solution in place to replace the USD fraud (AKA: reset) and until there is or we go to world war, then "everything is awesome".
The ONLY traders who profit are two types: the first are the insiders/controllers and the second are the very lucky, which are few.
A few thoughts from the wisdom of God: "The wicked in his pride persecutes the poor; Let them be caught in the plots which they have devised."
"One man pretends to be rich but has nothing; another pretends to be poor but has great wealth. Riches are a ransom for a man's life, but a poor man hears no threat."
Croc,
I'm a man of God as I assume you are. Mine was a long trip; not worth getting into.
But, I disagree with your binary definition of traders.
Some have long term goals for their wealth that transcend selfishness. There are still a great number of quiet people that make significant local changes by carefully distributing their weatlh. I have a good number of friends who do just that.
Money isn't evil at its core. It is its disposition that is the measure of the man.
"The ONLY traders who profit are two types: the first are the insiders/controllers and the second are the very lucky, which are few."
This is simply not true, but the sentiment is common. And if you really believe this, you should definitely not trade the markets, because your trading will be driven by your perceptions.
Trading is about making money. Nobody can realize a profit on a long trade unless they sell at the higher prices. Nobody can bank the short trade unless they cover at the lower prices.
To the extent the players that moved the market are in the mood to cover, and lose interest in the trade, is the extent to which somebody shorting when the whales are covering (and often changing their position) is the extent a good trader can make money.
The elements to successful trading are numerous. To win is a multi-dimensional game. It is a game indeed. Play it well, and you win. It is emotionally and mentally exhausting. It requires an extraordinary amount of patience and discipine, and requires a clear, focused sharp mind - and that means a healthy body. Statistics show that most can't succeed, and this should come as no surprise. Impatience, lack of discipline, physically out of shape, intellectual and academic weakness is the norm. Not trash talking anybody, and ppl seem to get along in life like that (ppl with day jobs), but you have to operate at peak levels in every aspect of your own individual humanity, just for starters, to have any chance of consistently winning. The math, price action, leverage, capital commitment, time, technical and fundamental stuff, execution, back end account infrastructure BS, are just others piece to an overloaded puzzle. And each component has many branches, and you must be able to successfully manage them all.
When ppl say things like "The ONLY traders who profit are two types: the first are the insiders/controllers and the second are the very lucky, which are few." that is only an excuse for their failure, or a justification of their fear of taking a risk and seeing if they cannot master themselves and the game and come out a winner.
For all the ppl with the 401ks that only have one strategy, just stay long and never sell, well, what are you gonna do. They have friends (for the time being) in high places, so they are looking pretty good right now. But the roller coaster volatility, while maybe not enough to wipe them out, canbe enough to bring their long term rate of return to single digits, plus or minus, which won't be so impressive.
The trader (a good one) won't suffer the same level of 'sitting duck' exposure, and get a better return. But I think for the average dufus, they will lose a LOT more if they try to be a trader. Better to lose less as a sitting duck than to lose it all trying to trade.
and the ZHer commentor answer is to bitch and stay short. Here's another idea, why not wait and go LONG when the shorts get squeezed and make money?
You, sir, see reality with an incredible amount of clarity. And that is not sacrastic.
It's nice to know, I'm not the only one "fighting the Fed"...Just added to my "short" position!
I'm gonna beat these CRIMINALS!!...I sense a weakness, all around me.
I'm sending someone over to your place to take your measurements. They'd like your financial casket to be correctly sized.
As noted from another thread:
"The reversal on 10/2 was pretty dramatic, and I am not surprised at all to have seen so much follow through buying. The market is now up solidly for the month and the quarter, where the 4th Q is very often bid, so the bears are just gonna have to hold their stomach, because the buying you think is impossible and cant happen is more likely than the selling you hope to see.
November might see some selling, but December will end up with a gut wrenching rally into the end of the year."
(http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-20/bob-bear-stopped-out-i-did-not-...)
From a purely technical look at the charts, I was on the edge of my seat waiting to short a break of all time highs in the 1st week, 2 weeks or so of July 2015. The market started fading late June, and weakly tried to hit the bid in early July, but alas, the big fade happened. IOW, the highs you see are not the ones to stick, and when the market is contained like that, it usually means new highs will roll around in the 4Q.
It is very possible the 'won't get fooled again' crowd gets fooled again. The stock market has been playing its cards very close to the chest. The price action isn't even close to what we saw leading up to the 2000 break and the 2007 break. There simply has not been the sort of capitulation you expect to see at market tops.
It is painful to watch, because the mind knows there is no underlying GDP to support the price action. But don't expect rational when it comes to the market. Well, yeah, rational for a while, but then (at the extremes) very and purely emotional. We are now working on a seasoned high of 4 months, and the prices are rolling along with the trend. Under these conditions, with all the winding up underneath, if that high breaks, you should expect a pretty explosive move up.
A great trader is always in rational mode. They never are controlled by emotion. So to *buy* in this setting, you have to be crystal clear on your thesis, and of course have stops, and never buy unless it is into some hard selling - like what just happened. I think the selling is likely to be pretty tepid from here until new all time highs, but if November shows a 5% - 10% down move, and there has not been new all time highs, a trend trader will buy that with Sep low (or Aug, take your pick) as a stop. A hero who want to sell I guess has to pick old all time highs as a stop.
God only knows what will happen, but as a trader, and I had my fun long @1880 and 1875 SPZ15, for *me*, there is *no way* I am selling until I see a lot of juice blown up over the current all time high. Then I can sit short and care less because I know for a fact I am trading with losers. But if I come in short here, and the market blows up past old highs (a reliable down side target for a short after the fact), after sweating it out for what could turn out to be 3-6 months, I might finally scratch out a few ticks. Generally speaking, I don't like trading with stops. I like trading where I know I am going to make money (the stuff they call 'money' anyway). I like to trade away from critical break points *after* they break and get in the *first* time around the prices hit. It can still be painful, time consuming and very annoying, but the risk of loss is basically zero, assuming my acct is not over-leveraged.
The trend trader, however, who is willing to take the risk, and trade with the stop, and sit tight for (in this case) break of all time highs, where a lot of other guys just dont have the nuts to make the trade, but being in the minority (hard to believe, but buyers are the minority here), and having the psychological strength to deal with the trade that most don't, is the guy who gets rich. Speculating to get rich or trading for consistent income are the two choices, in general terms. I suppose I should have kept those longs, but like everybody else, I start to lose my resolve when the prices start moving into nosebleed territory.
Either way, bears are totally wrong right now. They might be able to snipe at the market for some short term love, but I think, based on the above, new all time highs are coming soon enough. Once they hit, all the ppl who were waiting to 'play it safe' and come in to buy on the break because this was their 'buy signal', then I get very interested in selling, but not before.
The bill for the above consultation will be mailed to you :)
I know I'm going to get blown up for this comment, but what the heck. Instead of waiting for the end of the mega-cycle and not participating, I've been deploying risk capital, taking the gains, and letting the corpus stand. I now have 3 pounds of gold in the safe and made another $170,000 (in fiat, or course) last month. I figure I'll use that to buy the acreage next to my existing property and let the corpus of my investment ride.
Of course I actively hedge, which probably makes me evil.
It's one thing to bitch about how rigged the system is. It's another to exploit it with capital you can afford to lose and convert the gains into hard assets. IF YOU KNOW THE SYSTEM IS RIGGED, WHY WOULDN'T YOU JOIN THE SIDE OF THE RIGGERS WITH CAPITAL YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE? Is it better to be right in priniciple and wrong financially?
Where I shop, being right doesn't buy much soppressata.
Just my opinion. The comments here have become so single-minded I thought I'd throw you some red meat.
$170k is pretty good. May you make $17MM more.
Perhaps, given enough time.
No dude, this is totally fine. You don't have to check out to become an impoverished financial hermit to remain moral. They effectively force you into their monopoly casino at the point of a gun. If you found a way to win their rigged games playing by their rules, take 'em for every penny you can. Just steadfastly support abolishing the casino. Continue to tell everyone who will listen about its evils, donate a bit of your winnings to free market advocacy, and you're golden.
Herk, you and I are on the same page. I try to take my "winnings" to secure my family with things that would be difficult to take away. I also have a loved one that suffers from bipolar disorder and the money helps me get her the best non-pharma help I can acquire We've been dealing with this for a quarter of a century and it's improving monthly. She used to think she saw God cleaning her kitchen (honestly) and now she is raising her 4th Rottweiler as another service dog. Life can be funny. But money (fiat or not) can really help making your own life fulfilling if you direct it to the appropirate ends.
Plus, our service dog Rottie is a big comfort to those who need to have a big, non-judgemental hug. (His name is Koda and he's a local legand!)
The dog, the money to pay for its training, and the change it makes in her life makes the chase for "fiat money" work for me.
So many people spend their time trying to live the ideal. Others of us live in the real... which is a little more difficult.
I really don't give a fuck what the Fed does. Nor do I care who crashed the plane over Egypt or why. I'm honestly sorry for the lost souls and their familes, I can't fix any of that.
Me and my neighbors need to support each other for the things we struggle with every day. And thankfully, we have a group that does. That's enough for me.
Squeezing the shorts through agents with algos is part of the SOP to deter declines from price collapses through rate hikes signals. Get it.