Turkish Stocks, Currency Soar As Protesters Gassed, Possible Erdogan Assassin Shot After Elections

Tyler Durden's picture

On Sunday, something “surprising” happened in Turkey: AKP rebounded from a relatively poor showing in June’s elections to collect nearly 50% of the vote at the ballot box. 


We are of course employing a bit of sarcasm when we say that the results were “surprising.” Sunday’s farcical elections are the culmination of a four month campaign by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to restore AKP’s parliamentary majority and pave the way for a power grab that will entail alterations to the country’s constitution. 

Make no mistake, Erdogan wasn’t shy about pulling out all the stops. He effectively engineered a civil war in order to scare the electorate out of supporting the pro-Kurdish HDP and the PKK has variously accused Ankara of being complicit in suicide bombings that have killed hundreds of Turks. Erdogan has also cracked down on the press and anyone who even looks like a dissenter leading directly to a scenario wherein a key emerging market has plunged into political and economic chaos. 

Of course the market hates uncertainty worse than almost anything else which is why sadly, Sunday’s election outcome (which represents nothing short of an usurpation of the democratic process) has sent the lira surging. 

 

As we noted on Sunday evening, this is the biggest rally since 2008. 

Even as it isn't entirely clear that Erdogan has the 330 seats he needs to expand his powers, the market is looking for a relief rally. Here's Barclays: 

According to the unofficial results of Turkey's snap elections, the Ak Party got 49.4% of the vote, with the main opposition party CHP on 25.4%, nationalist party MHP on 11.9% and the Kurdish party HDP on  10.7%. With this outcome, the Ak party would win 316 seats in the Parliament, more than the 276 seats needed to form a single-party government structure, albeit less than the 330 to call for a referendum on changing the constitution.

 

We think the outcome is a positive surprise for the markets as pre-election opinion polls indicated coalition government scenarios. We believe two major short-term risks ahead of Turkey have been diminished now. 1) a weak coalition scenario or repeat of elections  and 2) rating downgrade risk ahead of Moody’s review on Dec 4th. However, medium-term risks are still valid, including: 1) uncertainty in the management of the economy with a major question being whether Mr Babacan, former Deputy Prime Minister who is responsible for economy will be the leader of the economy; 2) external factors that may continue to be a pressure on EM currencies and also Turkey in 2016; and 3) slow growth.

 

The Turkish equity market has fallen by 26% YTD, underperforming the MSCI EM Index by 16%. The correction brought down the 12-month forward earnings multiple to 10.7x and implies that Turkish market trades at a 13.5% discount to MSCI EM Index, nearly the highest discount level in the past 5 years.

And here's a look at Turkish equities in the wake of the election:

But while the market cheers, HDP is crying foul, claiming widespread voter fraud (via Sputnik):

Turkey’s pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) headquarters received complaints of fraud from polling stations across the eastern Turkish province of Agri, a Sputnik correspondent reported Sunday.

 

Intense security presence was observed throughout the polling stations, with entrance bans in place for foreign observers and journalists.

 

Leyla Zana, one of 80 HDP candidates into Turkey’s 550-seat Grand National Assembly, voted earlier in the northwest Agri city of Eleskirt. Zana also reportedly experienced problems with access to the station.

In the Kurdish city of Diyarbakir, police brought out the tear gas and water cannons as civilians protested the election outcome:

Another still shot:

Apparently, one dissatisfied citizen went so far as to attempt a one-man assault on a mansion where Erodgan was staying on Sunday evening. He was promptly shot, although there are competing accounts as to whether he committed suicide or whether he was killed by Turkish police.

Here's the official account from state-run AA (via Bloomberg):

  • A person involved in an incident outside a mansion in Istanbul used by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was earlier reported by local media as having been shot by police, shot himself, Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency says.
  • Person argued with guards at the guest entrance to the Huber mansion, then grabbed a guard’s gun, shot at police and then shot himself in the head, Anadolu says

Draw your own conclusions.

In any event, the question now is whether the PKK will step up attacks on government forces and whether Ankara will protest Washington's move to station US commandos with the YPG in Syria. 

In short, this is a mess that isn't going to be cleaned up with one (possibly) rigged election. Investors may want to fade this rally...

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Looney's picture

Wild Wild Turkey!  ;-)

Looney

rbg81's picture

Someone has decided to restablish the Ottoman Empire, complete with a Muslim conquest of Europe.  Why?  Because Muslims are (supposedly) so much easier to rule over.  Alll you have to do is issue a Fatwa.  Those civil wars can be a bitch though....

SickDollar's picture

Israel and the US decides who get elected in Turkey , not the people

Flagit's picture

 

Not sure why the narrative for Syria does not apply to Turkey.

"Oh, oh, he's a butcher, he's gotta GO!"

"Oppressing his people, gotta GO!"

"Rigged elections...he's gotta GO!"

tarabel's picture

 

 

Any of those things not true?

Jethro's picture

All of those statements could be said about the US government as well.

rbg81's picture

ZH:  the undisputed home of twisted pretzel logic.  

The Israelis don't want Erdogan.  It is not in their best interest to have a hostile, Islamic Turkey (or Europe).  Period.  In case you missed it, they were pretty happy when the General next door ousted the Muslim Brotherhood from power in Egypt.

 

Down to Earth Thinking's picture

Turkey will be the next Arab spring ?

KJWqonfo7's picture

Can't we make "arrested quicker than a Turkish journalist" a thing?

It's all about phrasing.

BarkingCat's picture

Because Turkey will be a more reliable partner and supplier to the EU than Russia??? ROTFLMAO

Noplebian's picture
Noplebian (not verified) Looney Nov 2, 2015 12:29 PM

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Albert Einstein

More on the 'End Game' here......

http://beforeitsnews.com/conspiracy-theories/2015/11/time-travel-is-no-l...

 

 

JustObserving's picture

Psychopathic war criminals like false-flag Erdogan, drone-assassinating Obama, pig-lover Cameron, I-own-US-Congress Netanyahu are firmly in charge now.  This can only mean more war.  And many more deaths

Turkish officials plan false-flag attacks to create pretext for war with Syria

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/03/29/turk-m29.html

Turkey had always been at war with Syria.  Now the war ramps up:

The following examples show the extent of Turkish involvement in the war on Syria:

–Turkey hosts the Political and Military Headquarters of the armed opposition. Most of the political leaders are former Syrians who have not lived there for decades.

–Turkey provides home base for armed opposition leaders. As quoted in the Vice News video “Syria: Wolves of the Valley”: “Most of the commanders actually live in Turkey and commute in to the fighting when necessary.”

–Turkey’s intelligence agency MIT has provided its own trucks for shipping huge quantities of weapons and ammunition to Syrian armed opposition groups. According to court testimony, they made at least 2,000 trips to Syria.

Turkey is suspected of supplying the chemical weapons used in Ghouta in August 2013 as reported by Seymour Hersh here. In May 2013, Nusra fighters were arrested in possession of sarin but quickly and quietly released by Turkish authorities.

Turkey’s foreign minister, top spy chief and senior military official were secretly recorded plotting an incident to justify Turkish military strikes against Syria. A sensational recording of the meeting was publicized, exposing the plot in advance and likely preventing it from proceeding.

–Turkey has provided direct aid and support to attacking insurgents. When insurgents attacked Kassab Syria on the border in spring 2014, Turkey provided backup military support and ambulances for injured fighters. Turkey shot down a Syrian jet fighter that was attacking the invading insurgents. The plane landed 7 kilometers inside Syrian territory, suggesting that Turkish claims it was in Turkish air space are likely untrue.

Turkey has recently increased its coordination with Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

more at:

https://consortiumnews.com/2015/06/25/turkeys-troubling-war-on-syria/

Son of Captain Nemo's picture

If this doesn't tell you how maniacal and outside the boundaries of reality and controlled our market(s) and government(s) have gotten than nothing will!

I thought the big reset was last year after the Sochi Winter Games but I was wrong.  Apparently the "white chimp" and his handlers are thinking very carefully before they put all of their "eggs into one basket" and commit to an "all green go" for a missile defense live test lin Europe!

Mark Mywords's picture
Mark Mywords (not verified) Nov 2, 2015 10:17 AM

So? The Royals won the World Series.

Prisoners_dilemna's picture

There's a borrower on bitclendingclub.com from Turkey, username SSGenc. In total he borrowed hundreds of BTC and paid 10's of BTC in interest. He was an excellent borrower, always paying on time and he earned himself a great interest rate. 2 months ago he missed a payment and went dark. The lenders haven't heard from him since. I hope he's ok.

tarabel's picture

 

 

Oh, I'm sure he's doing just fine.

Pliskin's picture

Hey Germans, move over in the bed a bit, there's 75 million Turks wanting to get in.

coast's picture

I like turkey...yummm.  organic mashed potatoes and organic green beans, and go ahead, throw in a couple rolls even if they are not good for ya...then pumkin pie with whipped cream...oh man, thanksgiving cant get here soon enough for me :-)

Deus Irate's picture

Shot himself in the arms, legs and torso 27 times, then dragged himself several hundred metres around the courtyard while randomly beating himself about the face and neck, before shooting himself in the head a further 19 times. He then continued to punch and kick himself while throwing his bloodied and bullet riddled corpse into a police van where he grabbed an officer's shotgun and blew his head clean off. He was then placed in handcuffs and read his rights.

Yuubokumin's picture

only to persish two hours later from his self-inflicted injuries.

rejected's picture

All elections everywhere are farcical ZH. Hard to go wrong here. And the USA leads them all.

In the USA it's so bad that many states now depend upon drivers licenses to get a pool of "Jurors" rather than the registered voters.

LoveTruth's picture

Erdogan is ottomanist. This shows that turks still live with ambitions to expand by means of violence.

Erdogan=ISIS.

This is a bad news for the minorities and non muslims in Turkey. 

LoveTruth's picture

Bulgaria should invite Russia to set up a few military bases, not very far from the border with Turkey. 

MadVladtheconquerer's picture
MadVladtheconquerer (not verified) LoveTruth Nov 2, 2015 1:39 PM

Bulgaria is in NATO, Einstein:

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/nato_countries.htm

 

rich1657's picture

Bulgaria and Romania play both sides.

Maxter's picture

Are they using Diebold voting machine?

Sokhmate's picture

I know you're all skeptic, but right of the bat, I believe the elections were honest, evidenced by the percentage:

49.41%