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18 Bullets Showing That A Global Recession Is Already Here

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream,

The stock market has been soaring, but all of the hard economic numbers are telling us that a major global recession is here.  This is so reminiscent of what happened back in 2008.  Back then, all of the fundamentals were screaming “recession” by the middle of that year, but the equity markets didn’t respond until later.  It appears that a similar pattern is playing out right now. 

The trade numbers, the manufacturing numbers, the inventory numbers and even the GDP numbers are all saying that a very significant economic slowdown is happening, but stock traders haven’t gotten the memo yet.  In fact, stocks had an absolutely great month in October.  Of course just like in 2008, stocks will eventually catch up with reality.  It is just a matter of time.  The following are 18 numbers that scream that a crippling global recession has arrived…

#1 According to the biggest bank in the western world, British banking giant HSBC, the world is already in a “dollar recession“.  Global GDP expressed in U.S. dollars is down 3.4 percent so far in 2015, and total global trade has fallen 8.4 percent.

 

#2 In September, Chinese exports were down 3.7 percent compared to one year ago, and Chinese imports were down a whopping 20.4 percent compared to a year ago.

 

#3 Demand for Chinese steel is down 8.9 percent compared to a year ago.

 

#4 China’s rail freight volume is down 10.1 percent compared to last year.

 

#5 In October, South Korean exports were down 15.8 percent from a year ago.

 

#6 According to the Dutch government index, a year ago global trade in primary commodities was sitting at a reading of 150 but now it has fallen all the way down to 114.  What this means is that less commodities are being traded around the world, and that is a very clear sign that global economic activity is really slowing down.

 

#7 U.S. exports are down 11 percent for the year so far.  The only other times they have fallen this dramatically since the turn of the century were during the last two recessions.

 

#8 Since March, the amount of stuff being shipped by truck, rail and air inside the United States has been falling every single month on a year over year basis.  If less stuff is being moved around the country, does that mean that economic activity is growing or declining?  The answer, of course, is obvious.

 

#9 The ISM Manufacturing Index, which is the most important measurement of U.S. manufacturing activity, has fallen for four months in a row.

 

#10 The Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Outlook has dropped for 10 months in a row.

 

#11 Wholesale sales in the U.S. have fallen to the lowest level since the last recession.

 

#12 The inventory to sales ratio has risen to the highest level since the last recession.  This means that there is a whole lot of unsold inventory that is just sitting around out there and not selling.

 

#13 It looks like a new housing slump is emerging in the United States.  Sales of previously owned homes fell by 2.3 percent in September.

 

#14 New home sales in the United States declined by a whopping 11.5 percent in September.

 

#15 Wal-Mart is projecting that its earnings may fall by as much as 12 percent during the next fiscal year.

 

#16 According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if the government was actually using honest numbers the unemployment rate in the United States today would be 22.9 percent.

 

#17 According to Challenger Gray, layoffs at major firms have risen to the highest level that we have witnessed since 2009.

 

#18 The number of job openings in the United States declined by 5.3 percent during the month of August.  That was a very large plunge for just one month.

None of the underlying issues that caused our problems back in 2008 and 2009 have been fixed.  Instead, we just became even bigger and bolder with our mistakes.  In the period between the last recession and today, we witnessed the greatest debt binge in the history of the planet.  Now a lot of that debt is starting to go bad, and the Bank for International Settlements says that their “dashboard of risk is flashing red”.  The following comes from a recent article in the Guardian entitled “Apocalypse now: has the next giant financial crash already begun?“…

This summer, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) pointed out that certain major economies were seeing a sharp rise in debt-to-GDP ratios, which were well outside historic norms. In China, the rest of Asia and Brazil, private-sector borrowing has risen so quickly that BIS’s dashboard of risk is flashing red. In two thirds of all cases, red warnings such as this are followed by a major banking crisis within three years.

And that is exactly what we are heading for.  Whether it happens next week or several months from now, the truth is that we are steamrolling toward another great banking crisis, and it will be worldwide in scope.

By the time that it is all said and done, I believe that the economic crisis that we are heading toward will be much worse than what we experienced back in 2008 and 2009.  The U.S. economy has never even gotten close to the level it was operating at prior to the last recession, and now the next crisis is upon us.

But until stocks crash here in the United States, most people are going to ignore all of the numbers above and will just keep pretending that everything is going to be just fine.

Just like in 2008, the irrational optimists are going to keep chanting their happy mantras for as long as they possibly can.

 

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Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:33 | 6746831 erikaappleihzyjtyeg
erikaappleihzyjtyeg's picture

Bullish

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:40 | 6746860 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Bulletish

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:42 | 6746866 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Spray chowder... let them eat it.. puke. 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:49 | 6746902 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Gun is not kill people, bullet is!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:55 | 6746919 espirit
espirit's picture

Boris is got new Avatar!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 22:12 | 6746965 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

And, now he's also a Twitter whore.

Who loves ya Boris.........we do!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 22:20 | 6746999 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Small cigar smoking demon,

Boris is love you, too (in manly way)!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 22:25 | 6747005 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

I hope you're affordable.

I generally only have enough cash for the STD infected street hustlers.

Anybody got $0.99 for a three pack of condoms?

Wed, 11/04/2015 - 13:41 | 6749271 The Gladiator
The Gladiator's picture

I hear they are so cheep in Syria,they are falling from the sky.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 22:19 | 6746994 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Boris is now Q-Code. You are scan and AirPhone is call Boris direct!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 22:24 | 6747002 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

We won't get Alatovkrap after you pick up the receiver, will we?

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 22:58 | 6747098 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Boris is test Q-Code and is get busy signal. Think, think! Then Boris is realize you are dial own phone! Of course is busy signal! Maybe small cigar smoke devil is try call now?

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 22:14 | 6746973 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

In two thirds of all cases, red warnings such as this are followed by a major banking crisis within three years.

 

3 years...i'll need a bullet to the head to make it stop

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:41 | 6746863 espirit
Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:42 | 6746869 Lets Buy The Dip
Lets Buy The Dip's picture

bullish indeed. This Aussie guy is redicously accurate with his market calls and predicted a major bull market in 2009, now he is saying the crash mid year in 2015, and huge bounce is the start of the next leg higher. WOW!. => http://www.bit.ly/1OjUHXw

I mean, I understand why people keep saying this market is about to crash, but as one of my friends talked with me over coffee  yesterday, he was spot on when he said. Right now in the US, with rediculsouly low interest rates, and good earnings, and fair value, where else is there to go but the US & european stock markets. 

Plus the fact that EUROPE will throw more QE around the pits, in DECEMBER....and we all know that that always helps the market skid higher. Infact its designed especially for that. 

NExt few months will be interesting. :-))))

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:45 | 6746878 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

This christmas will be the last for ksears, pennies and possibly bestbuy.  Lets see them try and game holiday sales.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:49 | 6746898 espirit
espirit's picture

Many retailers are going to suck wind...

Don't forget WallyWorld!

Wed, 11/04/2015 - 00:54 | 6747386 PlayMoney
PlayMoney's picture

If you peak under the hood at SHLD, you will understand why i am short and agree. My number one retailer to short. Their numbers, debt and all that icky stuff is horrible

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:52 | 6746910 dimwitted economist
dimwitted economist's picture

More Doom Porn!!!!

LOL!!!!

Dow 20,000 by X-Mas!!!

They Done Got This Bitches!

just bust on out and BUY! BUY! BUY!

Wed, 11/04/2015 - 00:47 | 6747367 PlayMoney
PlayMoney's picture

reading those 18 points makes me100% positve.... stocks go up

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:41 | 6746859 Aquarius
Aquarius's picture

Oh Aye, - Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose -  but this has been true since Y2005 at least; try since 1997

http://verbewarp.blogspot.com.au/2011/08/delusional-economics.html

http://verbewarp.blogspot.com.au/2015/10/its-not-economy-stupid-its-econ...

http://verbewarp.blogspot.com.au/2011/02/economic-heresy.html

(Think that it is going to get better? LOL - this is a dynamic trend and we are going down, big time. - Get a Grip on It. ) 

Ho hum

 

 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:45 | 6746876 hairball48
hairball48's picture

George was a genius....and had a great crystal ball. This skit is over 10 years old.

The American Dream

http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/1044358/

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:48 | 6746888 Arthur Schopenhauer
Arthur Schopenhauer's picture

Yeah, but who cares, man... none of that stuff matters, man. The Fed ain't gonna raise them rates, man.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:50 | 6746891 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

I knew it was coming. 

For 6 years I've been waiting and waiting.  

Finally I can get on with my life.

 

"Is this the line for free food?"

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:50 | 6746892 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Good thing the FED flooded Wall Street with $10+ Trillion of taxpayer funded gravy and bailouts.  *cough*

A hegemony of immoral kleptocrats and oligarchs are running the show, and We The People:  sweep the aisles, scrub the toilets, and take out the trash!  Get back to work serfs!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:52 | 6746912 espirit
espirit's picture

And the first rule of Fight Club is...

We Don't Talk About Fight Club.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 23:02 | 6747109 o r c k
o r c k's picture

Did I hear "Gravy?"

Where's my gravy with a side of gravy?

Wed, 11/04/2015 - 00:44 | 6747358 undertow1141
undertow1141's picture

And it better be KFC gravy, don't want none of that Boston Market bullshit.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:49 | 6746901 Hohum
Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:53 | 6746914 Reichstag Fire Dept.
Reichstag Fire Dept.'s picture

Is now a good time to dump my retirement savings into Netflix? 

I'm 64 years old and looking for one last big score to ride off into the sunset with. ;)

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 22:26 | 6746993 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

I heard Valeant was a hot stock and is a no brainer for investment purposes.

Wed, 11/04/2015 - 05:03 | 6747731 shantyman
shantyman's picture

Pershing Square is dipping, good time to buy! The President/Founder is a humble guy

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 22:06 | 6746947 Usurious
Usurious's picture

 

 

Mako 2010

'People are greedy.  The choose to lend and borrow with interest attached to their transaction a percentage rate, eventually system is unable to expand due to Math and finite ability to supply and DEMAND, system implodes.  Game over.'

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-original-dollar-crisis-and-h...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 22:22 | 6746998 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I've been in school for 5 years straight and I have paid for it by working in restaurants. I've worked through the 2001 and 2008 recessions. We are in a recession. It's bad too. The place where I work is one of the best in the city and featured on the Food Network. It's renowned. The take home tips have been halved. The business is so weak that shifts that have always had three servers are cutting down to two. It's getting worse too. We are in a recession. In other areas it's a flat out depression.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 22:45 | 6747057 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

if you have a decent job it is a recession, if not, it is a depression.

Wed, 11/04/2015 - 00:13 | 6747306 Phenomenon_Noumenon
Phenomenon_Noumenon's picture

"The administration's take (i.e. GDP projections) on the economy moves it closer to the growing view among economists that the United States could be stuck in a prolonged period of stagnation." - Reuters, Feb. 2, 2015. Even Obama knows that the dynamics of an aging population cannot reproduce a roaring 20's. Now, if only he could admit it publicly.


Wed, 11/04/2015 - 01:53 | 6747542 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Look @ DAT Solutions spot market trucking loadboard.  Loads down 42% YoY and 9% MoM.  Available trucks to haul up 16% YoY and 6% MoM.  Van (and flatbed) rates down ~15% YoY and 2% MoM.  IF THIS DOESNT SCREAM US RECESSION, I dont know what does.  2 sectors that were strong 12-18 months ago are flat as a pancake right now: agriculture and energy.

Wed, 11/04/2015 - 06:07 | 6747770 Chia-Pet
Chia-Pet's picture

Re-fi, cash out buy QQQ. This is the signal I've been dreaming for.

Wed, 11/04/2015 - 09:38 | 6748154 deKevelioc
deKevelioc's picture

Finally, another list.

Wed, 11/04/2015 - 10:58 | 6748537 smacker
smacker's picture

"18 Bullets Showing That A Global Recession Is Already Here"

If honest stats were produced by .gov instead of manipulated garbage, I don't think most western economies ever came out of the recession induced by the 2008 financial crash.

Just a mild blip of a recovery - a dead cat bounce as it were , nothing more. That's now fading.

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