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Bitcoin Suddenly Plunges

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following what has been a tremendous surge in bitcoin, which as we noted earlier had doubled from its August lows, rising as high as $420 less than an hour ago, a furious selling program was unleashed moments ago taking down the digital currency by nearly $50 on a sudden and dramatic surge in volume.

 

To be sure, there is nothing wrong with profit taking after such a parabolic move, however we were under the impression that the kind of furious block selling - which is intended to take out the entire bid stack and reprice an asset to a lower baseline - was reserved solely for gold, courtesy of the BIS.

It appears Virtu, or the NY Fed, may have finally noticed the dramatic surge in this alternative currency. What happens next will be up to the influx of new Chinese buyers who as we predicted two month ago when BTC was $230, have nearly doubled the value of bitcoin in two months in order to bypass China's tightened capital controls.

With this kind of volatility, we are curious how long before a new generation of traders, the same who are currently watching paint dry in equities and FX courtesy of a seemingly endless short squeeze, migrate to this asset class which suddenly is boasting the best volatility on the planet, if only for the time being.

 

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Tue, 11/03/2015 - 15:59 | 6745237 arbwhore
arbwhore's picture

"This thing could go to a million." - Hugh Hendrey

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:00 | 6745242 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

must be HFT.. well probably not.. thin and no MM's.

Live Bitcoin/USD Chart

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:01 | 6745253 OrangeJews
OrangeJews's picture

ROFL!!!  Where's Fonestar???

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:02 | 6745261 highandwired
highandwired's picture

this is a healthy correction

 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:04 | 6745272 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Yeah, "healthy" like the gold market.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:08 | 6745291 LowerSlowerDela...
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture

WHAT?!?!?!?!  NOT ALLOWED.  The people having BitCoin orgasms just told me that BitCoin is going to the moon.

Didn't happen/not happening.  Fake, fake, fake, Chinese imitation data.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:08 | 6745309 highandwired
highandwired's picture

can't speak for "people" but for me...the more volatility the better

bring it on!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:16 | 6745354 highandwired
highandwired's picture

huobi seems to be down

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:31 | 6745461 xrxs
xrxs's picture

Source?

 

And it's coming back.  I've seen this before, and it's usually been a good entry point.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:41 | 6745535 Poundsand
Poundsand's picture

"I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has happened."

- Sum Ting Wong

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:50 | 6745596 Reichstag Fire Dept.
Reichstag Fire Dept.'s picture

Alderaan is (was) on Bitcoin?! 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:57 | 6745643 15horses1donkey
15horses1donkey's picture

It wasn't me.

http://zhc0.com

 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:19 | 6745771 coinhead
coinhead's picture

OMG SO MUCH BITCOINZ SO MUCH WOWZ! 

 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:32 | 6745844 83_vf_1100_c
83_vf_1100_c's picture

...and it never will be.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:53 | 6745941 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

15 horses1donkey.

Silver or gold, dip shit.

That - is Zero Hedge tradition based on historic realities.

Any coin affiliated with Zero Hedge better be physical.

Tyler is gonna crush your nuts for copyright infringement.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:22 | 6745784 coinhead
coinhead's picture

Nothing can stop teh Bitcoin!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:24 | 6745801 coinhead
coinhead's picture

Nothing ever goes wrong in Bitcoin land!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:45 | 6745560 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Don't see a downtime there. https://www.huobi.com/

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:33 | 6745467 Paveway IV
Paveway IV's picture

The banks obviously read ZeroHedge and and became paranoid about a triple-leveraged bitcoin volatility index eating into their profits. The bastards are whip-sawing it on purpose now to inflate volatility. Your money-changing little banker pricks are going down one way or another.

I will enjoy witnessing the Chinese destroying our evil banking empire once and for all. All the bailouts in the Western world won't help us survive the chaos that ensues once the full extent of the epic Chi-scam known as Chinese banks and SOEs implodes, pulling in all the linkages to Western banks people didn't think existed.

How bad will it be? Well, we're packing up the flying saucer and leaving the planet until this blows over. Between Chinese banks and the high-luminosity clownfuckery in the Large Hadron Collider, you shaved monkeys are in for a world of hurt. People in other dimensions are even afraid, and they don't even use Bitcoin. 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:07 | 6745296 highandwired
highandwired's picture

nothing goes up in a straight line

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:40 | 6745531 RogerMud
RogerMud's picture

have you heard about the S&P?

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:31 | 6745454 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

US caused.

First rule of FED-nance:
There will be no competitors to the Dollar.

Second rule of FED-nance:  See the first rule. 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:02 | 6745666 Bank_sters
Bank_sters's picture

Hey buddy, I just wrote that shitcoin was fine until it wasn't and you railed that I was some philistine who didn't understand.  What gives?  

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:13 | 6745745 highandwired
highandwired's picture

Tell me when it will be time to sell my Bitcoins for debtfiat plastic rectangles

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:22 | 6745782 Bank_sters
Bank_sters's picture

Your shitcoins have so much counterparty risk that plastic might be a better investment.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:30 | 6745826 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

Where exactly is the counterparty risk ?

You really do need to do some research , your ignorance was amusing for a little while but now it's wearing thn , you need to say something original.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:57 | 6746001 Bank_sters
Bank_sters's picture

The very fiat currencies themselves!   And add in govt intervention and bitcoin goes to shitcoin in a bad rap second.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 19:20 | 6746350 espirit
espirit's picture

If you value your BitCoin in $USD...

That's your counterparty risk.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:26 | 6745428 Zero Point
Zero Point's picture

Screaming "BUY! BUY! BUY!" into a Fisher Price telephone in a lunatic asylum.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:44 | 6745553 ShorTed
ShorTed's picture

Turn those machines back on!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:20 | 6745775 coinhead
coinhead's picture

fonestar is not in teh lunatic asylum

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:30 | 6745456 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Fonestar bought in when Bitcoin was 1.98, so he is all good with cost averaging.

Just because you call it magic bank proof currency means jack shit.

Shitcoin seems to be modeled after the stock market - rope some muppets in for a joy ride, then fuck them up the ass, and dump them in a river with cement overshoes.

Paper or electrons - not a smart investment.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:30 | 6745833 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

Just like silver markets then.....

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:58 | 6746007 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Silver for the wise investor is physically held metals period.

If it is not in your possession, you don't own it.

In 1964, a paper or silver dollar bought 4 gallons of gas.

In 2015, spot price alone buys 6 gallons of gas where I live.

So, go finish your yoga exercises so you can keep sucking yourself off - you gonna need the extra protein.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 18:18 | 6746083 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

You really displayed your huge intellect with that last sentence .. Is that really the best you can come up with ? You can get some extra college time in once you sell them 5 ounces you have been hoarding ... Should buy you a couple of hours atleast.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:32 | 6745840 nuubee
nuubee's picture

Bitcoin is neither paper, nor electrons. It's math.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:42 | 6745899 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

This guy is way , way confused , both silver and paper are electrons ....

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:50 | 6745952 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Light an inflationary match to both, and see what happens.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:17 | 6745765 coinhead
coinhead's picture

ROFL!!!  Where's Fonestar???

Right here!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:06 | 6745254 38BWD22
38BWD22's picture

 

 

I got some gold at $410 / BTC.

Whew!

But, I still have some BTC left.  Maybe now that it's backed off to $392 or so, I'll go buy some more from the BTM (BTC ATM).....

 

EDIT: $391....  ounce.me

 

EDIT: $387...  Time to go get some more...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:10 | 6745321 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

Wow you really called that! 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:11 | 6745332 38BWD22
38BWD22's picture

 

 

Buena suerte, nada mas.

Normally my timing is very bad.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:16 | 6745360 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

If you like speculation here's one:  Aurora Cannabis, ACBFF.  A friend of mine in Canada's son works for them.  He says the new PM will legalize in Canada.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:04 | 6745675 sleigher
sleigher's picture

It dropped on BTC-E and is still around 370.  Bitstamp, Bitfinex and Huobi are all still over 400.  Huobi at 425 last I checked.  

Also seems the large volume purchases are slowing right now.

I generally watch bitstamp @405 right now.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:15 | 6745751 highandwired
highandwired's picture

China sleeping right now, watch this baby in the evening

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:00 | 6745240 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

trades technically well

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:55 | 6745631 Neil Patrick Harris
Neil Patrick Harris's picture

Yeah I used the fibonacci tool on bitcoinwisdom a few days ago and figured that 420 or so would be a short term top. I think that suggests that ~80%+ of bitcoin trading is done by algorithms. The APIs are much easier to use than the ones offered by etrade.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:01 | 6745250 alphahammer
alphahammer's picture

 

CHINESE MORTGAGES!!!!!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:04 | 6745270 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Amazing on a day where Obama raises the national debt to $20 trillion dollars, of which none will ever get repaid, gold and silver prices get nailed. It is insanity squared.

Welcome along for the ride BTC.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:12 | 6745334 maneco
maneco's picture

It's called M.O.P.E. or Management of Perception Economics. The U.S. Treasury with the help of the Federal Reserve and the big banks smash the gold price and ramp up the stock market on the day they raise the debt ceiling to just under $20 trillion. So the perception by investors and the public is that the administration and congress are managing things properly. How long they can keep the game going is anyone's guess.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:54 | 6745620 TAALR Swift
TAALR Swift's picture

MOPE is also played in the streets as Three Card Monte. Since... 4eva. Nothing new, except the Wheel of Fortune of new acronyms and weasel word euphemisms, to ensnare the gullible and befuddle the weak-minded.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:36 | 6745502 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

You're on a ship with a mad captain. You don't get to determine the heading, but only on whether you'll be allowed to stay aboard or walk the plank.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:04 | 6745273 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Doesn't matter to me. I have physical bitcoins printed out in my safe deposit box. Still there like they were before.

/s

In today's times, who would ever put their money into something that needs the internet to function? As a gamble? Ok. To move money around? Ok. But as an insurance against anything? Oh jeez.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:14 | 6745352 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

So in otherwords you deposited your bitulips into a bank. 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:17 | 6745365 LowerSlowerDela...
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture

You have angered the BitCoin gods...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:20 | 6745380 oddjob
oddjob's picture

The Bank regrets to infrom you that any contents of value in your safe deposit box have been liquidated. Enclosed, please find your physical bitcoins.

 

Thank You again.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:24 | 6745407 BadLibertarian
BadLibertarian's picture

"who would ever put their money into something that needs the internet to function?"

Like the stock market, or any business that relies on a distributed supply chain?

Hell, or Apple, facebook, Amazon, ...?

Yeah, why would anyone ever put their money into those things?

/s

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:30 | 6745453 Lockesmith
Lockesmith's picture

This argument is the same as saying "why invest in PM, when everyone else is dead they won't be worth anything."

If the Internet disappears, you'll be having bigger problems than the value of your buttcoins.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:05 | 6745281 venturen
venturen's picture

Who now thinks Google Could Mint Bitcoin

Who now thinks Google Can't Mint BitCoin

 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:11 | 6745333 highandwired
highandwired's picture

by "mint" you mean what exactly?

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:06 | 6745290 venturen
venturen's picture

what is your bitcoin worth when you aren't connected to the internet? 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:11 | 6745327 CHX
CHX's picture

A chuckle on my face.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:13 | 6745342 highandwired
highandwired's picture

I know many people are very very ignorant when it comes to Bitcoin.

Here's some info you probably missed in your extensive study and examination of Bitcoin:  Bitcoin does not actually need the internet!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:06 | 6745294 NaiLib
NaiLib's picture

Volumes in China still a _lot_ higher than in the rest of the world. BTC pricing has been dead since mtGox, however transactions in a steady rise. Eventually the financial community will realise that a "blockchain" without value, is also worthless. Nobody will _trust_ a private "blockchain" run by banks. Volatily will continue until the big grab will come. No idea to talk about what value will be when that happens. All that can be said is that it will be higher.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:09 | 6745315 CHX
CHX's picture

Blythely, it looks like a masterly executed PM-like take-down...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:10 | 6745323 TheLazyNative
TheLazyNative's picture

BTC ia still up 5% on the day. and an almost relentless rise over the last couple of months. Yes, there'll be pull backs but I expect this run to continue at least until the end of the year. There may be a correction after that, until everyone discovers that the nos. of BTC in production will half middle of 2016. At which point, we'll see another burst in its appreciation. Other factors will contribute to a gradual, medium-term appreciation. These include a growing sense that it is being recognized by institutional investors, the deepening of the ecosystem around it, punters driven out of fiat by volatility and depreciation, and so on.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:24 | 6745415 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Seen it happen already in 2013. Heard the same exact post as yours too. Fucking nothing ever changes anywhere I guess.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:38 | 6745519 TheLazyNative
TheLazyNative's picture

so you're saying the price action in 2015 is driven by exactly the same factors that drove the price up in 2013?

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:43 | 6745546 TheLazyNative
TheLazyNative's picture

Corrigendum: BTC now up 8.81% on the day. Meltdown?

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:47 | 6745932 TheLazyNative
TheLazyNative's picture

Holy shitballs bitcoin PLUNGES +10.11% on the day. What a disaster.

zzzzz......

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 18:25 | 6746112 mbutler101
mbutler101's picture

I just can't seem to get past the fact that everytime bitcoin seems to get some momentum, the gangsters run off with all the cash, like MtGox and the silk roads, etc...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:11 | 6745328 In.Sip.ient
In.Sip.ient's picture

???

How do you arbitrage (as per the FEDs and Gold )  with bitcoin,

unless you have it to actually sell???

 

Inquiring minds...

 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:29 | 6745440 seek
seek's picture

Control an exchange and arb into people's account on the exchange.

Until the bitcoin is pulled from the exchange and placed on the blockchain, it's a ledger entry at the exchange, and not on the blockchain. Virtually all of the bitcoin fraud that's be perpetrated has been exchange fraud, Mt. Gox being one of the bigger ones. A lot of exchange "hacks" in the past that killed the exchange were just the people operating it leaving their customers holding the bag.

This isn't very different from the way CME handles metals.. Exchanges can rehypothecate bitcoin multiple times if they don't expose every customer's balance to public inspection.

That's why a prime piece of advice is to never leave your bitcoin on an exchange account, ever. Transfer in, trade, transfer out. "Banking" them at an exchange is an invitation to be robbed blind.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:33 | 6745478 highandwired
highandwired's picture

nevermind

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:06 | 6745695 herkomilchen
herkomilchen's picture

Holding bitcoin at an exchange rather than your own wallet is like holding paper gold instead of physical gold.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:12 | 6745735 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Moving money in yesterday.  Buy yesterday afternoon.  Sell this afternoon.  ACH the money back to the bank tomorrow.  Cashed the check this afternoon.  Money under the mattress tonight.

You guys are so serious.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:18 | 6745766 highandwired
highandwired's picture

By "money" do you mean fiat plastic/paper rectangles or do you sleep on the shiny?

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:31 | 6745836 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Tonight I mean the flimsy.  But it will be moved to "better" assets tomorrow or the next day.

I am intetionally trying to be flip.  There are so many "advocates" of bitcoin running around.  I am not one of them.  I am an advocate about having the resources to feed my family.

If you treat this like day trading, close the night with cash, you can be fine.  And you can skim a shit load of money.

Who knows if bitcoin is going to rule the world?  I doubt it.

But the folks who whine about the internet being gone or all of the power going down do not seem to realize that nothing, and i mean nothing, but family and friends are going to help you through that mess. 

So, take it easy.  Take it as it comes.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:24 | 6745795 seek
seek's picture

"You guys are so serious."

Mt. Gox took nearly a half billion dollars of client money when they went down. That's serious money.

This is really no different than the advice around gold of "if you don't hold it, you don't own it."

A lot of MF Global gold customers and a lot of Mt. Gox bitcoin customers both wish they'd followed this advice.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:16 | 6745359 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

That's what happens when HFT accumulations need to be sold and there is no one home.   tough luck bitchezzz

 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:05 | 6745687 highandwired
highandwired's picture

don't look now, but it's going back up

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:21 | 6745391 sevensixtwo
sevensixtwo's picture

SURPRISE!!!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:24 | 6745412 taopraxis
taopraxis's picture

Sucker bait...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:27 | 6745434 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

It's good to see the ZeroHedge Top Jinx works or BitCoin too.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:33 | 6745475 taopraxis
taopraxis's picture

Like it or, in my case, loathe it, Bitcoin is far too volatile to be a safe form of currency, crypto or otherwise. Just my opinion...flame away.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:34 | 6745487 spooz
spooz's picture

CNBC has an article today predicting that Bitcoin will be the 6th largest reserve currency by 2020.  This makes me think the whole Bitcoin thing may be effort by globalist oligarchs to wrest control of currencies from sovereigns and rule the world. Another reason to distrust it.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:35 | 6745496 Roving reporter
Roving reporter's picture

Where is the plunge protection team when you need them?

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:42 | 6745524 White Mountains
White Mountains's picture

Meh, 99% of people who make fun of or hate BitCoin don't even know what BitCoin really is.  Haters gonna hate.  They do so because they are trying to hide their ignorance.

Hated the Internet circa 1995

Hated digital cameras circa 1999

Hated BitCoin 2015

Had they been alive at the time they would have hated the printing press, the automobile, the airplane, the fax machine, ships made out of metal, and the spherical earth.

Doesn't matter, though.  Dinosaurs.  Simply let them wither on the vine.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:49 | 6745582 Anopheles
Anopheles's picture

I guess you also loved

 

- Hydrogen economy

- Segways

- Betamax

- Ever increasing house prices pre Sept 2008

Throughout history, there have ALWAYS been more FLOPS than successes.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:54 | 6745610 BadLibertarian
BadLibertarian's picture

Once more, you don't get it.

Betamax failed, but the idea of VCR's didn't. In fact, they became really popular during the 80's.

Compuserve, AOL, The Source, etc. all failed. And yet the Internet still somehow managed to transform the world.

BitCoin may or may not eventually become a global reserve currency, but you haven't been paying much attention if you think that some cryptocurrency won't eventually. And right now, BitCoin vs. the other options looks a lot more like VHS or the Internet than it does Beta or AOL.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:03 | 6745667 herkomilchen
herkomilchen's picture

Exactly.  Given its v1.0 grade limitations, I fully expect bitcoin to be obsoleted by a next generation cryptocurrency (or subsume it).

Here, "bitcoin" is just casually used to mean "cryptocurrency" the way early Betamax users used "Betamax" to refer to home video recording.  Something that happens today on a DVR, but is the exact same concept.

What face-wrinkling incomprehension people displayed at the notion of recording television in one's own living room.  Same reaction we're seeing here over bitcoin.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:13 | 6745744 taopraxis
taopraxis's picture

No incomprehension...cryptocurrencies are not unique, therefore the supply of them is unlimited. So much for value. Meanwhile, bitcoin gets singled out for MSM press attention, including from the likes of Bloomberg News and Paul Krugman. Again, why? I think it is because bitcoin is anti-gold and anti-cash and the authorities want to do away with both cash and gold in order to be able to rob the population more efficiently.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:24 | 6745793 highandwired
highandwired's picture

You have absolutely no understanding of Bitcoin

Bitcoin is not "anti-gold" or "anti-cash", it is anti-fiat!

It is like saying Silver is anti-gold and gold is anti-silver. 

Your argument is just plain stupid

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:33 | 6745847 Anopheles
Anopheles's picture

Bitcoin isn't "anti-fiat" it's just another type of fiat.  But one with absolutely zero backing.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:48 | 6745933 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

So what exactly backs gold ? A shovel and some digging is what ....
What backs bitcoin ? Huge amounts of energy and computational power.

Ultimately you are talking about a Shovel Vs. a Computer , the computer is way more advanced tool than a shovel.

BTW , you clearly don't know the difference between a fiat currency and a private currency:

Fiat is mandated in law to have value and traders are forced by law to accept it as payment , also government requires taxes to be paid in said currency. Bitcoin does not have any of these attributes of a fiat currency.

Ignorance will lead you nowhere , do more research.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 18:05 | 6746035 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

So what exactly backs gold ? 

5000 years of human history coveting the yellow metal and recognizing it as the premier store of wealth. THAT is what backs gold.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 18:23 | 6746103 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

So what about when gold had only been used for 6 years ? What was it's backing then exactly ?

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 21:21 | 6746785 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

Now you're moving the goal posts, but okay, I'll play along ...

In year six, gold (and silver) was backed by the same market acceptance that it has today. Unfortunately for bitcoin, gold has something on it called "first mover" advantage -- which is why bitcoin continues to struggle in its quest to gain traction. Besides lots of other dubious crypto currencies out there bitcoin must compete with, it also has to do battle with two proven competitors with a 5000 year track record: gold and silver.

Wed, 11/04/2015 - 13:31 | 6749214 herkomilchen
herkomilchen's picture

No one is dissing gold or silver.  Say a new metal was discovered, unobtainium.  It was also scarce, unprintable, compact, fungible, divisible...all the qualities of gold and silver.  Would you shit on unobtainium just because it wasn't gold or silver and lacked a 5,000 year history?  Or would you recognize it as also precious metal potentially serving as an excellent medium of exchange for all the same reasons gold and silver do?

Wed, 11/04/2015 - 21:24 | 6751631 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

I didn't say or imply anyone was dissing gold and silver. I simply made the point that gold and silver have the benefit of a 5000-year "first mover" advantage and bitcoin is at a disadvantage because of that -- a BIG disadvantage. It's just a fact.

If "Unobtanium" is discovered, it will suffer the same problem.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 18:16 | 6746072 Anopheles
Anopheles's picture

Except the "huge computational power" is a FAKE obstacle.  

 

Like saying you can only mine gold by hand from a mine shaft that's 4000 feet deep.   But if the price of gold goes up, then you can no longer mine the easy gold from 4000 feet, you can only mine more difficult gold from 10,000 feet down.  

The original bitcoins could be mined on desktop computers in a couple of days.  Now it takes thousands of ASICs consuming $200 to $300 worth of electricity to mine the same single Bitcoin.  

Throwing up fake, arbitrary barriers, isn't real work.  

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 18:22 | 6746097 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

So the best gold mines started out with large chunks of gold on the surface and it got progressively more difficult to mine. A traditional gold mine output drops by 50% every 4 years , exact same curve with bitcoin.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 19:03 | 6746270 Anopheles
Anopheles's picture

No, I'm talking about the artificially imposed barriers that bitcoin has. 

It's the equivalent of saying that even if you have lots of gold on the surface, you can't use that gold anymore.     All "new" gold sold into the system can only come from a mine that's 10,000 feet deep, even though it's identical to the gold on the surface. 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:24 | 6745797 BadLibertarian
BadLibertarian's picture

"cryptocurrencies are not unique, therefore the supply of them is unlimited. So much for value."

You could say the same of all of the fiat currencies in the world. So why are some valued more than others? 

That's something you might want to think about.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:34 | 6745854 taopraxis
taopraxis's picture

Actually, it is something you might want to think about...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:46 | 6745927 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Existing power structure

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:10 | 6745724 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

You guys dont get this do you?  Its not an investment.  Its a toy.  Its fun.  It might be serious, like a paper airplane was back in early 1903.

Anyone who is buying this thinking its going to pay for their retirement is crazy.  But anyone is scooping a few bucks on these swings is not.

Money is money folks. 

Next you guys will be telling me that dollar cost averaging over my lifetime is the best way to get a return out of the market.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:47 | 6745584 taopraxis
taopraxis's picture

I got my first look at the internet on a 9600 baud(that was fast, back then) IBM System/370 mainframe terminal in 1981. I made my money in the computer systems/telecom field. Bitcoin? I wouldn't touch bitcoin...pure sucker bait, in my opinion.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:36 | 6745872 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

If you knew anything about computing you would see that bitcoin is nothing short of absolute genius.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:44 | 6745915 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Until the NSA holds the majority of the computing power in the mining network.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:57 | 6745993 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

By doing that all they will be doing is making the network stronger and more secure .... You still don't know how this works do you ?

Thu, 11/05/2015 - 15:17 | 6754532 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

It is my understanding that the blockchain is subjected to a voting process to determine validity of transactions.

Once a single entity emerges with control over >50% of the miners, they can easily insert transactions into the blockchain, perform a rubberstamp vote, and then distribute the results to the rest of the network.

Basically, All of your bitcoin are belong to us.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:47 | 6745931 taopraxis
taopraxis's picture

I do not want geniuses to make my money. I want my money to be real simple so that I can understand it real easily...really.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:50 | 6745951 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

Yeah , I can try to understand where you are coming from , but please understand that some of us have an IQ above the 60's range.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:49 | 6745594 BadLibertarian
BadLibertarian's picture

Betting against the meta-trend isn't very smart, and the meta-trend for humans is towards virtualization - of everything, eventually, even ourselves.

So when you see something new that does what the 'old world' version did, but does it a lot better by taking advantage of the digital/virtual world, it's a good idea to pay attention. 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:51 | 6745608 taopraxis
taopraxis's picture

Simplify: Betting isn't smart...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:57 | 6745641 BadLibertarian
BadLibertarian's picture

Then don't get out of bed in the morning. Although, I guess that's always a bet too, right?

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:09 | 6745717 taopraxis
taopraxis's picture

No, getting in or out of bed is *not* a "bet"...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:26 | 6745806 BadLibertarian
BadLibertarian's picture

Sure it is. If you get out of bed and walk across the road, you might get hit by a truck. If you stay in bed, the house might burn down. Or neither of those things may happen, or something much worse.

There's no such thing as perfect knowledge, so *every* decision you make is a bet.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:32 | 6745842 taopraxis
taopraxis's picture

Perfect knowledge is not the determinate of whether one is making a wager. Your argument is fallacious...it renders the term "bet" meaningless by applying to every keystroke you make on your computer and every breath you take...stupid, in a word.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:35 | 6745865 BadLibertarian
BadLibertarian's picture

I suggest you think more deeply about what a wager actually is.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:44 | 6745917 taopraxis
taopraxis's picture

Based upon your views on this subject, every man on this planet merits the description of "inveterate gambler" simply by being alive...by extension, your idiosyncratic linguistics render all words essentially meaningless. No one can say anything meaningful because one is not writing or speaking but, rather, gambling. One is not sleeping, but gambling...everything in life is a gamble, so all words must be defined accordingly, every definition the same. Bet.

Reductio ad absurdum...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:52 | 6745955 BadLibertarian
BadLibertarian's picture

Keep trying. I bet you'll eventually figure it out.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:46 | 6745565 Anopheles
Anopheles's picture

A sudden big drop like that?  It's GOT to be rigged by the unseen hand.    A manipulated market, you know, just like gold.....

 

 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:52 | 6745612 taopraxis
taopraxis's picture

Agreed...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:33 | 6745849 seek
seek's picture

While the market is clearly rigged and has been for a couple years, it's not very liquid and a single seller dumping on an exchange can take out the entire bid stack with not that much bitcoin. We saw this happen before in prior instances of big drops. If the sales actually make it to the blockchain, it does cost them real money, however.

The bitcoin markets are corrupted, but not as corrupted as the PM markets, due in part to the structure of the market around mining, the blockchain and the diversity of exchanges.

My suspicion is that there is a major holder that works with the montary PTB to try and disrupt momentum at key moments, but due to the nature of the market their impact is limited, unlike gold they can't just issue new paper claims infinitely. I would expect majro efforts to consolidate trading onto one controlled exchange in the future, the more they can move into an off-blockchain exchange the more rigged they can make the market. Many bitcoin players, however, don't want that to happen, so it'll be an interesting tug of war. My expectation is the echange consolidation will be forced via regulation under the guise of consumer protection.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 18:09 | 6746013 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

More likely an automated whale sell order at 400 ... But of course that can't be true it's clearly a market manipulation by the illuminati ...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:54 | 6745621 Jorgen
Jorgen's picture

"Bitcoin Suddenly Plunges"

And so do precious metals...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:56 | 6745635 taopraxis
taopraxis's picture

Yes, gold is down almost 2% over the past month...horrors.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:38 | 6745881 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

Bitcoin up 9% in the last 24 hours and you think it's crashing ... hilarious ...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:50 | 6745953 taopraxis
taopraxis's picture

Show me where I said bitcoin was crashing...today's move has nothing to do with why I dislike bitcoin.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 18:02 | 6746021 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

You only dislike bitcoin because you don't understand it.

It's actually programmed into our genes - an irrational fear of the unknown - if you don't know what it is then run like hell because it may be a predator about to eat you.

Instead of hating the unknown , perhaps you should do some research and lose the fear.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 19:13 | 6746305 Anopheles
Anopheles's picture

Another thing that's programmed into our genes is irrationally liking something for the simple reason that other people like it and flock to it.    

I see it all the time, that people deny and dismiss logic if they BELIEVE in something, when it's actually false.  But they continue to deny FACTS,  and insteady substitue their own BELIEFS. 

Perhaps YOU should take a rational look at what exactly bitcoin is and isn't. 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 19:29 | 6746385 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

Actually I started out as a hater as well. Then I did some research and looked into the sourcecode. It's nothing short of genius.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:55 | 6745630 Reichstag Fire Dept.
Reichstag Fire Dept.'s picture

I bought a Bitcoin Put on the Vix and called the exact millisecond "top"!!! Raked in a cool $274...what comes after Quadrillion??

Nevertheless, I just bought the United States! Y'all have 30 days to vacate. 

Thanks.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:58 | 6745648 TAALR Swift
TAALR Swift's picture

TAALR is 'shocked' that Pump & Dump is used in BTC.

Who would have thought that?

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:04 | 6745680 Sleepless Knight
Sleepless Knight's picture

The fact that a currency can swing so much in a day makes it more of a stock that a currency. I like the concept of bitcoin, but swings of 10+ percent in hours is not something you protect wealth with. JMHO. Crossing boarders, buying things short term maybe.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:28 | 6745812 highandwired
highandwired's picture

What you fail to realize is that Bitcoin is still in it's infancy.  But hey, stay away if you wish, Bitcoin won't wait for you.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 19:13 | 6746315 spooz
spooz's picture

Glad I didn't make the "jump" in January 2014, when it looked like the only direction was UP!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:28 | 6745816 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Agreed. ButtCoin is rife with speculation and manipulation - and there is no ButtCoin government or regulator to support it. It moves more with the wind than with any fundamentals.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:07 | 6745703 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Jeez...it went up 30% in a few days, and ZH is freaking out because it dropped.  Well, here is news...its back over $400 as I type.

The thing (BTC) is crazy.  And you guys are taking it serious.

But what is serious?  The $1000 profit in cash sitting on my desk.  From less than a weeks investment.  And less than $5k put into it. 

That doesn't suck.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:16 | 6745761 taopraxis
taopraxis's picture

Bitcoin's market price reflects the influence of a gambling mentality. Everyone is free to fantasize as to its "real" value...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:30 | 6745830 Anopheles
Anopheles's picture

"real" value is zero.   The price people are willing to pay for "nothing" determines it's market price. 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:37 | 6745875 BadLibertarian
BadLibertarian's picture

Same as anything else. There is no such thing as 'inherent' value - it's always subjective.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:58 | 6746006 taopraxis
taopraxis's picture

Riiiggght...a market mechanism determines the market price of everything, therefore nothing has any inherent value and everything is the same, except...everything has a different price? Why? Because everything is *not* the same, that's why.

The notion that gold has no inherent value and might as well be 3/4 bluestone or bubble gum is a common fallacy designed to make gold look no better than anything else, when, beyond fiat, central banks hold only gold as reserves, which makes gold a *unique* financial asset.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 18:19 | 6746074 BadLibertarian
BadLibertarian's picture

Gold has physical and chemical properties. That's it. How those properties are valued is subjective.

Paper has physical and chemical properties. How those properties are valued is subjective.

A similar quantity of each (or of anything) may therefore have different prices, because the value of the properties varies with time and place. 

But that doesn't equal some magical 'instrinsic' value. Eveything is just bits - how you (and others) value a particular configuration of bits and the properties it might have creates a market price, but that's all it is - a market price.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:24 | 6745802 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

The ole Pump and dump gets them again...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 17:30 | 6745831 BadLibertarian
BadLibertarian's picture

Back over $400 on most of the exchanges now, and it's almost wakey-wakey time for the Chinese, who can now use direct deposit to invest with BTCC.

https://twitter.com/YourBTCC/status/661508507598917632

 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 18:11 | 6746056 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

Or place a shit load of sell orders .....

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