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Russia Set To Host "Negotiations" Between Assad, Syrian Opposition As Iran Hardens Stance

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When we began to document the ongoing battle for Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo, one of the things we were keen to point out is that the fight amounts to the final push to effectively restore the Assad regime. 

That’s not to say there won’t still be a dizzying array of rebel groups and Sunni extremists operating in the countryside, it’s just to note that once the country’s major cities in the west are under government control, it will then simply be a matter of Russia and Hezbollah conducting search and destroy missions in order to eradicate whatever remains of the opposition. That will invariably entail an assault on Raqqa, which should be particularly interesting given that by that time, the US will have troops in the vicinity. 

In any event, the point is that once the government retakes Aleppo, you can expect Moscow to begin angling for elections or some manner of political settlement.

The US and its regional allies will be negotiating from an impossibly weak position. With their proxy armies driven back and with no desire to commit to full-fledged military operations to counter the Russians and Iranians, Sergei Lavrov will essentially be able to dictate terms to Washington, Riyadh, Ankara, and Doha and you can bet those terms will involve the restoration of the Assad government in one form or another. 

Well sure enough, Interfax is now reporting that Assad is prepared to “negotiate” with some opposition groups in Moscow. Here’s Reuters with more:

Syrian government officials and members of the country's splintered opposition could meet in Moscow next week as Russia pushes to broker a political solution to the crisis, a senior official said on Tuesday.

 

"Next week, we will invite opposition representatives to a consultation in Moscow," Interfax news agency quoted Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov as saying.

 

"The meeting ... will possibly be with the participation of government representatives," Bogdanov said. He did not say which opposition members could attend.

 

After initially dismissing Syrian opposition groups fighting its regional ally President Bashar al-Assad, Moscow has shown increasing flexibility as it steps up diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict that has killed some 250,000 and displaced millions.

 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet U.N. Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura in Moscow on Wednesday to discuss attempts to start a dialogue between Damascus and the Syrian opposition, Moscow's foreign ministry said.

 

The list included mostly former and current members of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (SNC), Syria's Western-backed political opposition block, Kommersant newspaper reported on Tuesday.

 

Among those named were former SNC head Moaz al-Khatib and incumbent president Khaled Khoja, the daily reported, as well as representatives from a diverse range of political, religious and ethnic groups including the Muslim Brotherhood and a Christian pro-democracy movement.

Of course as Reuters also notes, the SNC isn’t even relevant at this juncture:

The SNC has been accused of slipping into virtual irrelevance on the battlefield in Syria as Islamist and Kurdish groups have grown stronger.

So in other words, Assad is going to “negotiate” with one of the weaker players here, which underscores our contention that there’s little chance of any actual power sharing. As always, that’s not necessarily an attempt to disparage the government in Damascus, it’s just to say that anyone who believes this is going to end in a Russia-brokered, fair and open election where Bashar al-Assad has some chance of losing probably needs a reality check. 

Meanwhile, The Kremlin's Western foreign policy critic extraordinarie Maria Zakharova is out on Tuesday denying that Moscow has insisted on Assad's restoration. Here's AP:

In an apparent effort to set the stage for transition talks, a Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman said on Tuesday that Moscow does not consider it a matter of principle that Syrian President Bashar Assad should stay in power.

 

Asked whether it was crucial for Moscow that Assad stays, Maria Zakharova said on the Ekho Moskvy radio station: "Absolutely not, we've never said that."

 

"What we did say is a regime change in Syria could become a local or even regional catastrophe," she said, adding that "only the Syrian people can decide the president's fate."

Right. So Russia isn't saying Assad's ouster is necessary, they're just saying it would lead directly to a "regional catastrophe" and that Syria needs to hold elections. Got it. 

But again, it doesn't seem likely that Assad would lose an election for any number of reasons. Here's what we said last month

We've always said that the West has a vested interest in demonizing the regime in Damascus, but at the same time, we've also noted that Bashar al-Assad is hardly the most benevolent leader in the history of statecraft. He is not someone most citizens will want to vote against now that Russia and Iran have put the SAA (or what's left of it) on the path to victory. Between the likelihood that the regime will be restored, and the fact that any civilians left in Syria would far prefer Assad than the bloody anarchy that reigns across the country currently, there's little doubt the President will prevail. That, in turn, will alow Russia to effectively close the book. That is, Moscow will be able to say "see, we held an election and Assad won. He is the legitimate leader and any further attempts to destabilize his legitimate government will be egregious examples of illegitimate meddling in the affairs of a sovereign country."

So we shall see what comes of next week's "negotiations" in Moscow, but no one should hold their breath for Russia and Iran to agree to a political future for Syria that doesn't include Assad or at least the vestiges of his government. The country is just too critical for Tehran. "Russia may not care if Assad stays in power as we do", Reuters quotes the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, as saying on Monday. But he added: "We don't know any better person to replace him." 

We contend that Russia does care - and quite a lot. Remember, Syria is now home to both a Russian naval and air base.

Finally, note that once the government is restored, one shouldn't expect Damascus to tolerate US boots on Syrian soil for very long.

 

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Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:20 | 6744408 knukles
knukles's picture

LOL
Russia will let Assad go.
And replace him with their New Iranian Provincial Governor direct from Tehran.  Which Obie will claim as a US victory and reason to decrease military expenditures to better fund resettlement of ISIS terrorists into the US.
Can't make this shit up, people.  (Well, OK, but the makeup just doesn't measure up to the concomitant reality, does it?)

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:24 | 6744431 Two-bits
Two-bits's picture

The farce is strong. And, the Teleprompter-in-chief will have little opposition...111 days in session next year.

 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/the-gavel/2015/11/house-2016-schedule-215476

 

Not that the house does anything.  Wouldn't want Ryan to be overworked his first year.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 14:39 | 6744775 HowdyDoody
HowdyDoody's picture

Someone gives Reuters credence? I'm from the MSM, I'm here to inform you.

 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:24 | 6744438 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

7th rule:  Fights will go on as long as they have to  --  Tyler Durden

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:45 | 6744521 Sothis
Sothis's picture

I can see Russia leveraging the fate of Syria for higher oil prices and lifted sanctions...  if they can maintain collateral to ensure America/Saudi Arabia can't renege on the deal.  Either way, I see Syria and Iraq eventually falling under the control of Iran, directly or indirectly.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:22 | 6744424 sam i am
sam i am's picture

 

The Moscow-Beijing Express on The Saker: Russian Black Hat-Chinese White Hat

www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-03/russia-set-host-negotiations-between-a...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:26 | 6744448 RawPawg
RawPawg's picture

a USA black swan event goes down before this happens next week

the window of ww3 ain't closed just yet

watch....

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:59 | 6745597 Questan1913
Questan1913's picture

Really....

 

For those who want to know what is happening on the ground in Syria and Iraq, here is a powerful antidote to the US media news blackout since Russian forces began eviscerating terrorist command and control, supply dumps and all the other Langley proxie assets in Syria.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZE-UoigCiM

 

http://english.farsnews.com/Default.aspx

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:28 | 6744459 Tyrone Shoelaces
Tyrone Shoelaces's picture

What if they got together and had a meeting and decided that Obama must be replanced?  Or can only the US make demands like that?

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:28 | 6744460 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

217 dead Russian civilians tell you that the Assad government ain't goin anywhere!...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:44 | 6744518 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Reading that article from Reuters I would have to agree.  The prose is different than Iran but it is still inclusive of the Iranian position.  

 

Generally I would say this:  Gentlemen, this is what ACTUAL diplomacy looks like.   Fucking amazaballs, isn't it?

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 15:46 | 6745154 MKD
MKD's picture

Your spot on.

somehow i dont think that the russians will show any mercy to those sons of goat fuckers of isis and al nusra.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:28 | 6744465 Johnny Horscaulk
Johnny Horscaulk's picture

Assad was reportedly prepared to negotiate devolution of powers and reform over 2 years ago.

That wasnt the point - the point was regime change and blocking the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline which would compete with Israel's Leviathan find and also help restabilize Iraq and a few other obvious items.

How do we know Assad is as bad as they say - because the US government said it - because the NYT or CNN did?

You have to consider that what we hear about Assad as the newest new Hitler is mostly fabricated, while what is true ranks in the minor leagues compared to Us, Saudi, Israeli, and Turkish state violence.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:34 | 6744484 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Just goes to show how little we really know what is going on in ME, or elsewhere for that matter.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:35 | 6744490 Flounder
Flounder's picture

Hey the Four Seasons Resort Sharm El Sheikh has rooms available for $320 a night.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:44 | 6744492 farflungstar
farflungstar's picture

AmeriKunts love to destroy, don't they? Gov't agencies are always looking for that next war, that next action where they get to kill a lot of people for some stupid reason or other they seem to make up on the fly. Not happy unless they are wrecking people's lives in some form of endless war. 

And then try not to laugh while we lecture others from our soapbox about human rights while the terrorists we fund commit atrocities. We ought to try not sticking our big fucking oh-so superior hooked nose in everyone's business for a change and see how that works out.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:37 | 6744493 socalbeach
socalbeach's picture

According to Gerald Celente, Syria had elections in June, 2014, with observers from 30 countries.  According to them, the elections were above-board and legit, and Assad won with over 80% of the vote.  So if Russia "begins angling for elections", it's a non-event, as Assad will win again.

(Oct 8, 2015 interview)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FxK8s8OhXo#t=8m56s

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:39 | 6744503 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

Ur doin' it rong. Should read:

Russia Set To Host Negotiations Between Assad, "Syrian Opposition" As Iran Hardens Stance

The air quotes were in the wrong place.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:42 | 6744506 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

By the way has the U.S. Department of Savagery on behalf of the "White Chimp" sent the Russian Federation there condolences yet?...

Or does 21st Century war crime etiquette prohibit such measures of compassion these days?...

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 14:00 | 6744595 datura
datura's picture

only John Kerry sent condolences to Russia. Obama plays invisible. But Kremlin's speaker officialy said that: "Kremlin attaches no importance to absence of condolences from Obama over plane crash".

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 14:03 | 6744609 datura
datura's picture

I can only remind you that Putin expressed condolences to USA after 9/11 and on similar occasions. But the USA is now officially the Empire of Evil, so they no longer feel any obligation to even pretend any kind of human decency. 

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 14:32 | 6744754 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

I can only remind you that Putin expressed condolences to USA after 9/11 and on similar occasions. But the USA is now officially the Empire of Evil, so they no longer feel any obligation to even pretend any kind of human decency.

"."

Well stated d

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:58 | 6744582 Peltast
Peltast's picture

There is no replacement for Assad like there was no replacement for Hussein and Gaddaffi.

Russia can end the Zionist-American Empire if he wants.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 13:59 | 6744591 where_is the_nuke
where_is the_nuke's picture

Nuke Israel.

Gas the Kikes.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 14:08 | 6744628 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

This is an exercise in confusion.

Assad is a problem only inasmuch as he won't allow a pipeline to be built across his territory to Europe.

The real irony is that it would be better for Assad, and cheaper for Russia, to allow 'A' pipeline to be built...but subject to extreme restrictions...like taxes, limitations in throughput capacity, etc.

It defuses the whole issue.

Then Europe gets the energy diversity they want...on the surface.

Russia gets the continued dominance of the Euro energy market they want...or at least commensurate funds.

Assad retains control while pleasing his ally, which is what he wants...plus a portion of the pipeline revenue 'a la Ukraine' that he can share with Russia.

The US gets to say it defused the issue, and helped eradicate ISIS, while retaining a theoretical 'security provider' construct with Europe.

And the best parts are:

-nobody has to die.

-no refugees.

-everyone declares success.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 14:23 | 6744715 The Billy Blaze
The Billy Blaze's picture

It is beyond comprehension that the USA would allow itself to be painted into a corner.  This clandestine shit (almost) always blows up in our face.  Let see how this plays out......

1.  Russia hosts a meeting between the "opposition" and Assad.  Of course, Russia determines who the "opposition" is at this juncture.

2.  Russia brokers a deal between the "opposition" and Assad.  Of course, the USA will cry foul and plead that the "opposition" is nothing but a sham.

3.  Assad will win re-election and, with a friendly "opposition", systematically eradicate the USA "opposition".

4.  USA will continue to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to support their anti-regime "opposition".

5.  The rest of the world will turn a blind eye to the obliteration of the USA FRN.

 

Russia has showed its hand (4 aces) and the USA refuses to fold.  Unless a full blown Russia-USA military conflict erupts, the USA, as we know it, is toast.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 16:13 | 6745340 alphahammer
alphahammer's picture
A very complicated plan. A very complicated plan that has a tremendous number of players that don't want to see the plans outcome. Complicated plans rarely ever work. Rube Goldberg card tricks showing five aces never work...
Tue, 11/03/2015 - 14:37 | 6744769 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Russia, Iraq and Iran now control the ME. Assad is just a sideshow. UK, France and Germany going to pay a price for backing the huge failure of the US to control pipelines from the gulf.

Russia, Syria, Iraq and Iran can easily supply Europe with all necessary energy needs. SA and other gulf suppliers will have no choice but to switch sides or die.

WWIII is over already.

Well done Mr Putin.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 15:29 | 6745056 Blue Vervain
Blue Vervain's picture

Danger still lies in the Empire's death throes: behaving irrationally, lashing out or even turning on or cannibalising it's allies.

Events like the suspected Sinai flight bomb and the flooding of Europe with migrants may represent these. I'm sure this won't end with a whimper.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 23:25 | 6747195 squid
squid's picture

Agree.

 

We all know that congress is not in charge anymore and we have no idea who is in charge of the executive branch.

 

Anything could happen and it will likely NOT be rational.

 

Squid

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 14:40 | 6744778 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Anyone flying to Moscow to participate in these meetings should be careful.

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 14:45 | 6744802 JIMSJOE2
JIMSJOE2's picture

Putin just stated that Assad will stay. All this crap about Russia changing it's mind is coming from the US and nobody else. Also in Geneva all members of the meeting agreed, some reluctantly, that Assad will stay and the choice of who rules is up to the Syrian people. The head of the UN went public with this exact statement. Syria will stay intact. It was also agreed that Israel would have to honor the 1967 border requiements and remove all settlements. Israel was not invited to the meeting. Turkey will be split in two with autonomy for the Kurds.  Turkey gambled and lost. The Saudies lost big time. They will be broken up into three separate states. Thats why the Saudies kept flying to Moscow the last month. They kew what was heppening but could not stop it. The US and Europe has agree to all of this. Of course the EU didn't have much of a choice as their project is getting ready to crash and burn. A EU Member state cannot contribute billions to Brussels and at the same time take care of hundreds of thousands of refugees in addition to the security nightmare this imposes! France was a major player in overthrowing Asssad. France has been stopped. That's why Sarkosy and his team has been flying to Russia. They just stopped Holland in his tracks.

The world is not what it seems thru the total BS of the MSM!

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 14:54 | 6744850 Flying Wombat
Flying Wombat's picture

Sometimes, an author nail a story so well it's god damn painful to read...  -- Eric Dubin, managing editor, The News Doctors

------------

US Special Forces deployed as ‘human shields’ to salvage terror assets in Syria

TND Guest Contributor: Finian Cunningham |

Obama’s decision to send Special Forces into Syria is being widely viewed as a US military escalation in the country. The troop dispatch also signals that the US trying to forestall Russian successes in wiping out Washington’s regime-change assets in Syria.

Full story: http://thenewsdoctors.com/?p=532475

Tue, 11/03/2015 - 15:00 | 6744884 Grandad Grumps
Grandad Grumps's picture

Sure makes it look like Putin and Obungo have conspired and Putin is double crossing Assad after saying that he was supporting him.

Let's see how this plays out ... but it does not look good for a revival of ethics and morality in the world.

... or was Putin frightened away when the plane was shot down?

Wed, 11/04/2015 - 01:37 | 6747514 onmail1
onmail1's picture

Why west is hosting ANY meetings for the affected parties, I dont understand.

West has lost all locus standi considering that west is the very CAUSE of the problem as the creator & supporter of terrorists.

Russia, Iran, Syria etc should convene all meetings within, all others are terrorists

Why go to Vienna?

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