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The Short-Squeeze-Driven Melt-Up Continues: Crude, Copper, Stocks, & Bond Yields Soar
Squeeeeeeze.....
Another day, another massive short-squeeze
Stocks are now up notably from The October FOMC last week...
And up massively from the end of September lows...
With stocks dramatically outperforming every other asset class since The September Fed Fold... (notice gold and oil retraced to unchanged since then)
* * *
But back to this week, Futures show the real moves best once again as we drifted lower overnight, only to ramp face-rippingly as US opened..
In Cash Indices, Small Caps (the dominant short squeezeds) is notably outperforming...
VIX held 14 again and bounced dragging stocks lower at the close....
We warned yesterday that VIX was decoupling...and today it decoupled even more...
And credit market professionals are aggressively protecting also...
Crude replaced USDJPY after Europe closed as the driver of stock algo correlations...
Treasury yields continue to surge higher non-stop all day... 30Y topped 3.00% and 10Y topped 2.20% to 7 week highs... But bear in mind that bond yields remain lower than at the September FOMC meeting (with 30Y -8.5bps)
The USDollar surged until Europe closed then dumped (with a small blip when Draghi spoke)... EUR back to a 1.09 handle...
Commodities were extremely active with crude and copper surging as PMs were dumped...
Crude ramped back above $48 (from below $43 last week), ran its stops and then faded...
And Copper ripped...
Lumber contionues to slide after last week's ramp (and longer-term sends very dismal signals)...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: A reminder why we rallied - and why The Fed says it will raise rates - because the economy is doing so well...
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and precious metals melt down. AGAIN!
what else is new?
oh yeah, Bitcoin is soaring
yeah... the most unregulated money transfer tool run by crooks who remain hidden that attracked every stable gambling Chinese moron who tries to hide his money from a collapsing system...
As long as nobody sells, and nobody does, the price remains stable. Unless those few large holders try to cash in on the lemmings by selling non value, created out of thin air bitcoins...
Why cares what bitcoins does, it's just syrup for the horseflies.
Fucking criminals have gone off the reservation. Payback is a bitch they say.
The Fed has turned bears into fucking stupid unicorn dust Again
Well played Mr Yellin, well played
- there will be only 21 million bitcoins
- most importantly unlike debtfiat, no one can create unlimited amounts out of thin air to prop up their failed "e-con-omies" and "wealth transfer" schemes
- fully available and accessible 24/7
- that also means fully tradeable 24/7, nonstop
- transferable 24/7 via electronic means (using computers, phones, hardware wallets, etc), physical means (printed on paper, wood, metal, tattooed on chicken skin, and so on) or carried in your mind (brainwallets)
- no limits, transfer as little as a fraction of a cent, or millions
watch out for openbazaar release, it uses bitcoin
and will kill ebay (and by extension paypal)
Hey those coins cost me alot in electricity!
What else is new?
Draghi is going to talk about lowering rates at his December meating....oh yeah that is old!
or it WAS soaring...depends on the moment of the day
Yes I AM sweating the paper price, sorry but I need Federal Reserve notes to live. Silver should be 50-100 an ounce right now. In case you didn't notice we use the $ to buy things still in America. Until that ends, I will continue to sweat the paper prices. When / if that ends I will king of the neighborhood, but until then I will be poor.
Single Digit silver and triple digit gold.
Some will indoubtly say, awesome, more for me. But I will say, no, none for you as supply dries up and as you and I all contiune to go poor thanks to what's happening. We will be bled out and forced to liquidate at super low prices to survive. Then, after the big banks gobble up the stuff on the cheap it will go to super highs and we will be out of luck. Sorry.
Sidenote, Bitcoin will be stolen and used as a one world currency syestem.
>>>
...triple digit gold...
<<<
Au got to about USD 1,800=00.
Most decent bubbles drop at least 2/3rds from top => USD 600.
About 67%.
But a _big_ bubble (Nikkei: 40,000 -> 8,000?) 95%?
And silver has been a c*ap-shoot since forever.
Watson
Bitcoin has zero chance of being a global currency... Unless there is a massive shift in how the entire world's economy operates. The bankers can't even let this huge debt bubble deflate properly or everything is going to get wiped out (debt based currency = constant debt growth, or destructive halt).
>>>
...can't even let this huge debt bubble deflate properly...
<<<
The best that can be done is ZIRP, and that's been done for some time.
At some point, something will trigger a crisis of confidence, and the debt bubble implodes.
The only thing that would stop the implosion would be helicopter money directly (not via banking system) mailed straight to every citizen and corporation.
But that won't happen (at least not fast enough), because it would destroy the currency (and the US already fears the rise of the REN).
So, somewhat surprisingly, the world is going to experience mega-deflation _despite_ all currencies being fiat.
In a strange sort of way I think this is quite an achievement...Keynes freely admitted that his ideas, even if followed properly (ie you are supposed to run surpluses in the good times - no government ever does that) had a bias to mild inflation (which he had no idea how to cure, just thought it was better alternative to savage slumps).
I wonder how the world is going to rid itself of all the incredibly cheaply financed productive capacity...which will itself drive the general price level lower?
Let's hope not a major war.
Watson
this is where you're very wrong
when shtf people will see debtfiat for what it is, a corrupt tool for financial criminals to steal from people producing real value. (thats not even good to use as a toilet paper)
debtfiat is used as long as people "trust it", that trust will be gone when the last of their possessions are stolen by ruling psychopaths and their banksters cohorts - as it happened throughout the history over and over, ending with violence and murder on a large scale (to "reset" the "economy" farce)
whats different this time, there's an alternative now:
bitcoin, powered by decentralized trust machine called blockchain, secured by math, science and open consensus
unlike debtfiat neither government nor banksters can create bitcoins out of thin air and corrupt the wealth of society to steal from people
When SHTF, good luck opening up your digital wallet
-digital wallet only contains your private keys
-you can print these private keys on paper, wood, chicken skin, etc
-you can even memorize them for ultimate safety
bitcoins are stored permanently on its blockchain (decentralized public ledger), keys give you the right to access them and ability to transfer this right to others.
"But I will say, no, none for you as supply dries up and as you and I all contiune to go poor thanks to what's happening.
We will be bled out and forced to liquidate at super low prices to survive.
Then, after the big banks gobble up the stuff on the cheap it will go to super highs and we will be out of luck. Sorry."
Who told you the game plan?!?
Just a hunch based on the past 8 years of emperical data.
Another day another ponzi march higher in RUT, but unlike yesterday where they marched it up with nearly 0 delta in OBV by the close, today was even more facinating...
Today we closed with an OBV -1.25 million shares in IWM less than what we opened at even though price action was 1/2 % higher end of day...that is FUCKING SPECTACULAR
In a free market, normally when you have more sell orders than buys, price takes a hit...not here in Wonderland. Some big, inside money is rotating out of the RUT and they are managing the price higher at the same time...people going long the RUT are about to get Fucked and in short order...they can't keep this kind of action concealed too much longer
Too much longer? Been hearing that shit for years......This motherfcker will go on ALOT longer than we can imagine. These fucks own it all.
To some degree..yes, but jerking off is not fucking...at some point, they need a partner..willing or not...makes no difference to them
They want more pension, Mom & Pop, select soverign wealth funds, those not in the click, etc.. to plow in...........then, lower the boom.
I find sex is far too intimate to do with somebody else
The fact that RUT's high was precisely at the Daily Keltner 2.0 top, just enough beyond the 100 DMA to briefely run stops before the late turnabout, must be considered one of life's greatest coincidences, though if planned it might make for a nice short tomorrow down to today's open, which just happened to match the 2.5% 200 DMA SMA envelope band (but Yellen's testimony will bring out the speech-to-text word-parsing algos, who always manage to screw up intraday trading.)
Well, rolled up and got pretty flat last Friday....had a nice downdraft Friday, why??, who the fuck knows but took advantage...had been rolling for 3 weeks and decided enough was enough getting out flat...three weeks wasted, oh well. I've got a big vaccation scheduled in the next few weeks along with offsite work with a client so can't stay on top of this the way this would require... going to call it a day. Bought a few puts today and yesterday for shits and giggles...think this breaks lower but refuse to trade spreads into holidays as volume sucks and MM's have a field day with rolls.
Think we have topped out. I'll be buying puts when we get days like today from here out...too much momo right now to play spreads...don't get me wrong, I will sell against my puts, but it will be much lower from here if we get a drop and not another holiday meltup. GL.
Going back to Jan 2014 RUT has broken appreciably above the Daily Keltner only a few times (late June and March of this year most recent) and each time it was short-lived (2 days or less). The only concern if we truly have a high-volume short attack with wider participation is that the RUT weekly 50MA and 200 DMA at 1210/1215 could be hit in short order, so large must be the contingent of buy stops just above. Still think you did the right thing, as always that damn detail of timing gets us all, but agree this must be watched closely now so refraining from moonlighting is advisable. Enjoy your vacation, and have a real vacation (no charts! :) ). Think you'll prevail big time by year-end ...
Thanks KCS...I plan to...No fucking charts just fun in the sun...GL...knock'em dead, seriously. Check back in with you in a few weeks @ Dec1
C'mon Muppets....come to Mama Yellen! Sesame street is lined with Gol---errrr---dollars!
Commodities recovering and Greece fixed and the . gov credit card spending intact . .... yes, bbullish.
Just as the history of ‘rock and roll’ includes many misheard lyrics, such as Queen’s “kicking your can” thought to be “kicking your cat all over the place,” Elton John’s ‘Tiny Dancer’ heard by many as “Hold me closer, Tony Danza, ” The Police’s “Message in a Bottle” becoming “Massage in a Brothel” and Fleetwood Mac’s “Go Your Own Way” belted out in Colorado as “Grow Your own Weed,“ so too are investors misreading central bankers, perceiving a “data-dependent” Fed, when all along Yellen has clearly been saying “beta-dependent.” Thus, given strong markets, a December hike is ABSOLUTELY inevitable (/sarc), and those made nauseous by the whipsaw will find comfort in the Creedence Clearwater Revival hit “there’s a bathroom on the right.”
Nobody ever thought it was 'Hold me closer Tony Danza'! NOBODY!
Just got an e-mail from Bernie Taupin's attorney, but he relented after learning my past work here required intently studying lyrics. I can't understand screwing up those I listed, but others make more sense, such as hearing Procol Harum's "as the miller told his tale", a Chaucer reference, as "as the mirror told...."
The most famous "misheard" lyric has to be Jimi Hendrix: "Scuse me, while I kiss this guy." -- Purple Haze
I don't consider that Cu is rallying. FWIW, I think Cu is going a lot, lot lower as those who are now unable to sell to the Chinese unload into any bid they can find. And for the gold-bugs amongst you: Be grateful the last big buyers of Au were central banks. No P&L pressure, no financing cost, and probably an electorate that would be unhappy with large sales. So no sales pressure, so the Au price is far higher than it would be otherwise. Just suppose the last big Au buyers were hedge funds...with investors crawling over the unprofitable positions, demanding that they were cut out. Watson
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XB9nqj_ZbeE/VjfhJzOFtLI/AAAAAAABE-g/-CgfklpSdx...
Elementary.
they are at a bottom as oil is at a botom. Oil willnot be allowed to go lowerthis is why metals are range bound. your fundamentals are garbage watson. as musch as central banks want to supress the price of commodites they also want to control them. They to have an interest in their price. any lower doesnt help them. the subsidies will end soon.
yup.... the boyz really believe Granma Yellen will raise rates for Xmas shopping season euphoria purposes. hahaha
"Squeeeeeeze".....
We ain't seen nothing yet, wait till this bitch really gets rolling!
The numbers will be in the nose bleed section!
Got hosed a bit in gold today but at least I was not short the stock market...it ain't over til it's over. The saving grace is that my losses are only a fraction of what they might have been had I not pulled half my capital out of the market and folded up my stock and bond trading. Losses in gold are not fun but even cash is not going to be safe, at some point. As I posted on the Bitcoin thread, I think there is a serious program underway to do away with cash and that is the reason I am willing to endure the risk of holding gold more or less indefinitely.
wait until it hits 600
or free given ur sentiment and outlook...
if i were u i would just sell whatever ounces i had before its worthless...the Dows going to 100k anyways so u should get in the elevator to hyperinflation on this 18th floor.....
after all Gold and Silver - there just rocks right....?
No worries. Wait until 945-1015am when the Fed's PPT steps in and buys stocks. They buy stocks daily now to prevent mass selloffs. The Fed is desperate to keep the stock market up given all the bad economic data. That's why they are buying stocks through their primary dealer banks with unaudited electronic money.
Don't believe me, ok.. But ask yourself why the market is going higher with all this bad economic data and uncertainty? Has that ever happened before? No! Where is all this new liquidity coming from to drive stocks higher? Also, why is Janet Yellen terrified of an audit?
"The Fed is desperate to keep the stock market up given all the bad economic data. That's why they are buying stocks through their primary dealer banks with unaudited electronic money."
Yep. The FederaL Reserve will not allow a failure anymore.
Full retard party YAY! Moar Kook Aid!
I thought (hoped) we were getting the "Full retard" clip. The "squeeze" works too...
None of this means much.
You want to invest? Be a market maker.
In order for there to be a short squeeze, you first need a shit load of buying, then you need that buy pressure to continue until it triggers stops and covers. Then when one tranche of covers is done you need even more buying to push it to the next level of covers. Who the fuck is responsible for that?
The Fed can stage guaranteed market melt ups by going short, and then buying....none of it costs them a dime it's all untraceable digital dollars so why wouldn't they?
If they can go short without lowering market prices while covering those shorts raises market prices, then that says more about market sentiment than their actions.
If they are manipulating, it's from endless new buying using their bottomless well of interest-free printed money. Just like Japan's central bank does.
Long term trend for copper, aluminium and steel is down.
Several more years of bubble deflating to go. A decade, maybe 2.
If the Fed copped a spray after bitching out in September,
I can't wait to see what happens when/if they bitch out in December.
long bond "soars" 3 basis points?
RIP zerohedge
So what if shorts are being squeezed. Right after short covering falls off, we see new longs coming in to continue bidding prices upward, thus validating those higher prices. That short covering rather than new buying helps get the price up is irrelevant if new buying continues even at the higher price.
Don't disagree in theory, but scant evidence thus far of continued buying -- volume today in most of the largest ETFs was abysmal, in some cases only 50% of already muted figures. With all the Fed-Head speakers tomorrow and JOBS on Friday it's likely large buy-side institutions are hedged and waiting it out, so it allows predatory low-volume algos to easily goose things with a few well-timed spikes on 2-min charts. In fact, last few days almost reminded me of holiday action, up on low volume, no retraces until final bar (most of the action came on an ambush of the the noon hourly bar, and by day's end we returned to that level in indices.). I'm thinking larger institutional shorts got out after the double-bottom breached Sept levels, so we'll need real buyers to go appreciably above the annoying range of the first half. Get your popcorn ...
Thanks for the valuable perspective. I'm losing my mind deliberating whether to stay bearish or concede the 2009-2014 escalator is back in action. The narrow range, up-only price action over recent weeks looks a lot like the past few years did: a straight ramp up, easy to trade with BTFD with tight stops, suicidal to short. I need to trade the market I have, not the market I'd like to have.
Anyway, your interpretation of events is quite helpful. Your hypothesis that no humans are buying but algos are manufacturing just enough new buying every day to run another traunch of stops, cash-out, and repeat, lines up with the nature of the price movements. Mechanical, methodical, even, slow, unidirectional, unreactive to the contents of news. What will happen at the end of it when humans enter again is a massive question though. If they start buying, then all the current short covering might as well have been real buying.
I do 100% cash daytrading with no overnight holds which took 4 yrs to figure out, with everyone, especially myself, thinking I was nuts and it was impossible, but the more central bank involvement appears to be a multi-decade, generational, global event, I think traditional Daily/weekly chart trading with holds, using standard tech analysis, has been blown apart by the doves, surely many will be having bad years, regarless of bull or bear. The fact that most of these folkls are unelected makes it tough to see change, but the narrative, even on traditional media outlets, is beginning, slowly, to question The Fed, perhaps only a beginning, but at least there's hope. (Quant trading w/ mean-reversion doesn't help, and may be the real story lurking below the radar in all the Fed-bashing)
Another day, another CL-fueled algo-fest. Up 13.5% in last week, with every leg up timed to prop up stocks.
http://pebblewriter.com/cl-algo-madness/
moar yen/euro qe before the fed releases more gas. these sunglasses are handy.