The Last Two Times The US Jobs Market Was This Bifurcated, Things Ended Badly

Welcome to the most bifurcated US jobs market ever... According to ISM, employment is best since 2005 for the Services 'economy' and the worst since 2009 for the Manufacturing 'economy'. The last two times the labor market was so divergent... did not end well.

The bifurcated job market...

The last two times this happened, things did not end well...

Of course, this should all be ignored as transitory now given that Yellen just greenlit December no matter what.

Charts: Bloomberg

Comments

[LawsofPhysics]

Last time there was some price discovery and honesty in those metrics.  Sorry, not anymore.

Global Weimar motherfuckers.

[Stuck on Zero]

I'm not sure anymore ... they are calling burger flipper jobs manufacturing now.

[HowdyDoody]

Bifurcated - fucked from both ends?

[Sages wife]

I think it's when you get a friend to blow on the other end of the hundy.

[Winston Smith 2009]

I'm not sure anymore ... they are calling burger flipper jobs manufacturing now.

Which would make the actual bifurcation even worse than shown.

[Grandad Grumps]

Sorry, not seeing the same pattern.

[moratar]

Kinda like pointing at black man and calling to kid that's how white man looks like :)

Totaly wrong as only ZH can be.

[BustainMovealota]

The last two years I have been reading ZH, its always supposed to end badly.  Wake me up when you know the date.

[Tall Tom]

Most people that I know do prefer to wake up to get out of a nightmare.

But then there is you.

You prefer to be awoken into the middle of a nightmare.

Okay.

To each his own, I guess.

[Shizzmoney]

The job market is a mess.  What's more harrowing is that the people who think everything is fine: the Wall St folks, corporate CEOs, and WH economists....haven't done a day of work in their lives.

Wage stagnation, or a sluggish growth at best, by itself is not a huge problem. But, it does become a crisis when the heavily indebted college graduate, with an average debt of more than $25,000, is barely earning above the minimum wage and is not on a career track. Even more worrisome is the possibility that this is the new normal.

We need to worry, and worry a lot, about whether such trends become permanent. The rapidly changing technological structure of the economy generates a lot of money, but not enough jobs. Even as people eagerly adopt new ways of working and relaxing with the latest gizmos, the companies that give us those products seem to employ very few in the United States.

The most profitable company that we have ever known — Apple — earned a profit of $11.1 billion in the quarter that ended in September. All those billions in merely one quarter. How many of us have seen, or even know of, an Apple employee? On the other hand, rare is one who does not know somebody working for minimum wages at places like Walmart or McDonald’s, which are this country’s largest private sector employers.

If the new normal is, indeed, that economic growth will not be accompanied by growth in career-track jobs that will pay well, then shouldn’t we rethink education? What if Oregon’s push for higher education as the route to economic prosperity, which is what the 40-40-20 plan is all about, ends up with graduating thousands who will find it difficult to find jobs other than being checkout cashiers at grocery stores, for which a high school education would suffice?

http://registerguard.com/rg/opinion/33667515-78/what-use-is-a-degree-if-...

This will end badly.

[Glass Seagull]

Worst since _________ .

A) [Bob] Beamon

B) Lehman

C) Dreamin'

D) Meme'n

[Bill of Rights]

Hence the reason the market or better still the S&P has bubbled up 200 points, this is how they game the market.

when the jobs number disappoints on Friday and the losses mount to a 200 points loss +-, no actual losses have been realized as we are right back from where the pop began. So in layman's terms they've already read the fucken report a month ahead of time...oh and of course Gold will pop right back to its original prices right at the 200ma before all the rates rising bullshit, with again! no actual gains at all, just contained bullshit.

[Shizzmoney]

RE

when the jobs number disappoints on Friday and the losses mount to a 200 points loss +-

I disagree - a jobs miss means markets go HIGHER as it more likely than not, prices in more QE.

The worst thing would be a jobs beat....giving the Fed the A-OK to raise rates (even if its by fractions of basis points) which would hurt things like corporate barebacks...I mean, corporate buybacks...that have propped up this market for so long.

I hope the Fed rasies rates just to see it all implode....but I doubt they have the guts to do it.  As well as the fact that for Neokeyesians like Yellen and Bernanke, Japan is *the* model that they aspire to be.  Jobs don't matter; inequality doesn't matter; the only thing that matters are infinite asset purchanses and always rising "markets".  

As long as "that number" goes up, that's all they care about. 

[Spitzer]

Whatever My Amanda Drury tweet alpha levered fund is doing great. Gotta ipo this. Symbol BMBO

[orangegeek]

Services jobs - does that include the hot chicks who get paid by fucking sugar daddy's in order to pay their tuition???

[RaceToTheBottom]

The real question is not about the hot chicks, it is about the ugly ones:

1) Is that services or manufacturing?

[youngman]

The new job everyone has is a part time simple manual labor...like at a fast food restaurant or a simple sit down restaurant....no one will get a good manufacturing job making things we need and use anymore....we have decided to be to expensive for that.....minimum wage is now maximum wage....good luck melinials pushing paper all your lives..its very comforting not doing anything for 30 years

[SSRI Junkie]

"The Last Two Times The US Jobs Market Was This Bifurcated, Things Ended Badly"

let me guess...bad for main street, great for wall street

[Bastiat]

Nothing bad will happen:  consequences have been suspended, fundamentals are irrelevant.  Reality is a barbarous relic.

[RaceToTheBottom]

Bifurcate this WS Asshats!

[MuleRider]

Bifurcated?  I was thinking more along the lines of "fabricated."