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One Trader's Writes: "In December Markets Will Look Back On This And Wonder What They Were Thinking"
From Bloomberg's Richard Breslow
Today we hear from 4 A-list Fed speakers. With the case for a rate rise in December being obviously laid, these speeches will be parsed as closely as any religious tractate. First up is Governor Lael Brainard who sent shock waves last month as she urged caution and patience. Getting her back on board with the hawkishly shifting FOMC and avoiding a potential dissenting vote from a governor will be a Yellen priority. Dudley on income “variance”, a euphemism for “inequality”, is also timely as Fed critics put much blame for this problem on Fed policies, i.e. rates too low, too long. Yellen and Fischer will be pushed on how low the bar is to a hike.
The December meeting is 6 weeks and 2 non-farm payroll reports away. Jaded markets, so used to a central bank eager to support asset prices and encourage risk taking, are only at the very beginning of discounting a rate rise. Leaving it to the last minute is a very risky strategy, borne from the very policies and communication challenges the Fed is now trying to change.
U.S. Treasuries are the first market paying some attention. Yields have backed up but are well short of the June and September jumps. We have seen these levels so many times that there are “major” technical levels every 10bps. These technical levels don’t take into account a rate rise and emerging-market central bank reserve selling that will only increase if the Fed goes
U.S. dollar bulls are remarkably timid. Not your father’s FX market. Fed is tightening, the rest of the world is easing. Emerging market economies are weak. I’m not sure what is the fear of punching below EUR/USD 1.08. All in good time
Equities are in denial. Stock buybacks at all time highs and discounting future earnings at zero rates is an odd long- term strategy at this point.
If the Fed gets what it seems to want in December, markets will look back on this and wonder what they were thinking.
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OK, so I'm going to put him down as another vote for "higher stock prices by year end".
It will make those Dec 19 strike dates pretty interesting.
This guys money is probably in Fedelity Fund.....plz
Shut up and enjoy your juicy steak.
To this trader - No it won't.
Exactly. "In December, traders will wonder why they weren't listening to ZeroHedge." Riiiiight.
What was who thinking, the traders, bankers or the Fed puppets?
They should ALL be Batman smacking themselves... repeatedly... until I say they can stop.
This market acts like a bunch of androgynous , pansexual unicorns are all that are left at most trading firms.
I will not feel sorry for any deek that refused to see what is happening
The eCONomy is in such great shape that Heinze just fired another 2700 employees today. Kerry must need a new yacht. Good job fed.
Not just Heinze:
National Geographic
National Geographic informed employees Tuesday it would lay off about 9% of its staff,
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/nov/03/national-geographic-layoffs...
American Apparel
Wages and jobs cut as American Apparel files for bankruptcyhttps://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2015/11/04/amer-n04.html
Chevron
Chevron cutting up to 7,000 jobs as oil profits shrink
http://www.theunion.com/news/18851073-113/beyond-the-county-chevron-cuts...
But fortunately if you are a g00berment employee you are solid:
Federal workers earn 78 percent more than private sector workers
‘The federal government has become an elite island of secure and high-paid employment, separated from the ocean of average Americans …’
http://www.sonorannews.com/archives/2015/151028/news-federal-workers.htm...
Add Target to the list
"Layoffs in 2015 included 2,500 jobs, or about one-fifth of the workers in the company's corporate offices in Minneapolis and Brooklyn Park."
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_TARGET_STORE_CLOSINGS?SITE=AP&...
National Geo got bought by Rupert Murdoch and now he's going to kill it because it talks about science.
National Geographic?
Who's going to take the tribal booby pics?
'We took some pictures of the native girls but they weren't developed. But we're going back again in a couple of weeks !'
Groucho Marx in Animal Crackers
Should I still stay in Prepper Mode?
If Janet can say Everything is Good based on just 2 days of Market uptick
then it's all good,right?
Maybe she can print you a bug out bag.
Am I still a trader if the only thing I trade now is gold?
Regarding the Fed: Put up or shut up...
See? The FED doing stupid stuff like ZIRP for 7 yrs actually works in its favor. At least we know the FED is full of idiots. When you have imbeciles at the wheel, it's harder to predict what they will do. An entity of sound mind, experience, and planning would be much more believable if they said rate hikes were imminent.
But when you are dealing with a fool, don't bother trying to base any decision on what he may or may not do.
I'm sorry!
Did you fools just miss Janet calling for NIRP in the event
of a market pull back???
IF(!) interest rates go up, it will likely be mid year 2016,
and it won't be the FEDs. It will be the private banks,
(AKA Wall St. ) that starts raising rates because their in a
cash starved environment.
Why do we fight the trend?
In spite of all the glood and doom:
a) the primary trend of the market is bullish.
b) the odds for for a sudden bear market are not high, as explained here:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/10/dow-theory-update-for-october...
While nothing is carved in stone, the odds favor the upside.
I am out of the game now but the reason I was bearish is that the trend for the past year has been choppy/flat and the economy is deteriorating and commodities are crashing and the dollar is rising and deflationary forces are building and wars are breaking out all over the globe and the people are tumbling to the depth of corruption in the halls of power and the Fed has blown it several times in the past and crashed the markets and stocks are in bubble territory and the bull market is older than the hills and interest rates are rising and...oh, never mind.
Currently searching for the exit, myself...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yu_RRBh_EKU
The Achilles Heel of Big Money
Regardless of ism or ideology, they are all based upon individuals who reject the gender roles assigned by nature on this planet, and so seek to grow scale efficiencies that can only be based upon slavery, as a means of building an artificial world befitting their purpose. From labor's perspective, they are all communists, competing against each other for supremacy with artificially differentiated ideologies, branches from the same tree of artificial knowledge.
And this communism breeds fascism, its reaction, those who offer to build the illusion, of something for nothing, who hate the communists, but seek the advantage of profit in providing for them, always with an actuarial ponzi, based upon the idea that knowledge is somehow power and therefore the group with power has the right of divine, pick your divinity, providence to enslave others for the purpose. The problem with hate of course is that those who hate become what they hate, as opportunity after opportunity passes them by and all they have left is hate, for themselves and others. Which brings us to space travel.
There is no point in space travel unless you are going to habitate other spacetimes, in which gender roles will be different than those on this planet.
Accordingly, if Hillary wants to be empress of the artificial construct called the United States of America, she is certainly welcome to do so. Labor is not going to stand in her way, in favor of another communist and fascist, which is the only possible outcome – demographic variability, financial implosion and war, when the empire once again fails to leave this planet before reaching the tipping point to planetary response. Likewise, if my daughter chooses communism, she is certainly welcome to do so, knowing that if the empire cycle ends, her DNA is going back to the churn pool.
I have not brought you to this realization because action is required, but merely to explain the perspective of labor. Nature is going to take its course, with or without you. It's a big universe out there, and sooner or later, it is going to be explored. It's not labor that stands in the way of women learning math.
It is an old, barren woman standing in the way of young women learning math, offering them something for nothing, Planned Parenthood, public education and a police state to back it up. David beats Goliath accordingly. Humans are no exception; only an individual can be exceptional, but that never stops an empire from trying to enslave labor, and prove that an individual cannot outlast an irrational market.
As a husband and father, my responsibilities are several multiples of those required of single people, pretending or not to be married, so don't expect me to show up at a trial of fact, which has only one outcome, communism and fascism. If government of, by and for the communists, run by fascists, worked, you would already be traversing the universe, instead of Google telling you where to go. Dad isn't quite so stupid as your 'friends' will tell you, and and he doesn't marry Pollyanna by accident.
You might not want to prosecute Pollyanna expecting your world not to collapse, or not. The other failed nation/states are simply betting that America will follow their course, that America is simply the next 'new meat' going through the sausage grinder of History. Americans may very well continue further down that path, but they will not be taking labor with them.
Mom is the bell that tells dad it is time to bring this episode of the sh-show to an end. When the majority of dads decide it's time to bring the aggregate sh-show to an end, the empire is rebooted. That is democracy on this planet; like it or not is a choice.
The majority chooses artificial intelligence over life at every node. Labor doesn't require a calculator as a ventriloquist. If you want an automated car economy, learn how to troubleshoot it, so you are not a prisoner to stupid, always at the intersection of a false choice, caught in the dilemma. Any moron can turn AC into DC, and put on a fireworks show trying to control AC with a DC series circuit.
Where do you as an individual want to go and where is your compliment? That is the intersection of your future, where you will find others. The rest is an arbitrary sh-show called History. There is no plan; life is what you choose to make of it. If you think you know more about AI, keep pushing that button, expecting a different outcome; impugn the character of faith all you like.
Big money doesn't print itself into oblivion every time by accident.
Labor doesn't accept money because it needs money.
Kevin,
you didn't solicit a response; at least not directly...but you did seem to be teasing an answer from tenditious specimens like janus -- those of us predisposed to toss in their two cents expecting interest.
in case you need reminding, twas you who spliced space-travel into your hydra-headed syllogism, so don't kink your brow at janus when he begins his response with a verse of Scripture: quoting Jesus Christ, "blessed are those who labor not."
okay, since i trade in kind, let me likewise petition your advice: poor as i am, the idea of having 'things' appeals to me. am i aware of how shallow and petty is this tendency? absolutely...as objectively as any thinker is capable, even those so exposed to poverty. even so, 'things' are of comfort in times of privation, and i cannot pretend otherwise. understanding this, when i saw that the WSJ was offering 12 weeks for 12 dollars, i seized the opportunity immediately. my mind was swimming with these opportunities of which you speak. no more would i sit on the sidelines watching life go by, janus could now insert into any potentially profitable conversation his affiliation with the WSJ and all entree would be granted me. my first issue should be arriving any day. in anticipation, i've been in the intervening time practicing what i'll say when 'opportunity' comes a knockin. things like, "while reading today's WSJ, it occurred to me..." or "i do say, the WSJ's editorials have really suffered of late; what say you, mr opportunity?"
i don't know...these WSJ pages will not launch me into space nor thread me through other dimensions; so why bother? why not leave them folded and bundle the words with dead leaves from the dirty ground to kindle fires in defense against cold's encroachment? Enoch & Elijah were the only to never taste death...both swept away in some kinda fiery chariot; and we haven't heard from them since. and that's telling.
anyway, the question is: should i read the WSJ? and to what end?
my point being: life cannot possibly be what you choose to make of it. all choice is made in ignorance and with the expectation of a given result...alll while we are perfectly ignorant concerning the nature of the expected result -- i mean, assuming we get what we want, was it what we wanted it to be; even if it was exactly what we expected? like the olde adage goes, "careful what you wish for; for you shall surely get it."
but we must 'want'...that is apriori of all being and beginnings. 'being' is not a static condition nor is permanence; both are moving and demand ceaseless doing. sentience is a condition of 'want'; it moves to attain, and its being moves with it hoping to settle at some idyll of permanance off in the distance, fixed in perfect happiness, perfect knowing and perfect being. but it's a mirage. God is moving; and He will not allow you to catch up. kinda like when your dad taught you to swim. tricking you into furious effort by wading away from you -- forcing you to fight against the drag of gravity inthe medium of water(that wants to swallow and kill you), always moving away until at last you learn to swim, make it safely to the shore to est...want...and swim again. but to what end?
Melville -- author of mobey dick -- hated God...does that mean he became the same? and what of lucifer? he wanted to be God so bad he ended in hating Him...and so when is the beginning of lucifer's becoming God? did he miss his opportunity'?
for my part, i'm sorta at a loss...in that i don't know what to want to be anymore. so, Kevin, what should i want? what should i choose to effect the end i should desire? and then, once i've filled the contours of this new being, what shall i do whence it no longer suits me and i want more? not to confuse something more with something else...for if knowing that my future being will doubtlessly disappoint, why try? we'd like to think that there is some mode of being that consists in the absence of doing -- some call it nirvana, some call it heaven -- but life itself teaches us that the end of being is the end of doing, which ends in death; which is something we struggle instinctively to avoid.
i dunno...i doubt the communists, fascists, religionists nor individualists will ever slip the surly bonds of earth (at least not permanently in this life), but the effort is worth it, i guess, even though it will meet with disappointment...and i suppose that's the lesson we're to learn viz. being and nothingness -- that the former is preferable to the latter, no matter the consequence.
the Bible says, "the fool returns to his folly as the dog to its vomit." true, but i'd like to know why fido chases his tail...i suppose it's just a way to kill time between meals.
The Bible also says, "there is no rest for the wicked." but that's also true for the good...there is no rest between meals, only a pause marking time as future wants accumulate unabated. that is to say, the show must go on...yes, 'that' show, the Sh-Show called history. no one wants to be prince hamlet, all are just attendants hoping to swell a scene or two, deferential, politic, full of high-sentence...at times, the fool -- and that's because everyone forgive a fool who stays off stage. crowns and thrones perish; kingdoms rise and wane...only jesters remain. but here's the thing, this show is not satisfactory...the themes are threadbare, the plot thin as gruel; not even the stagemasters are entertained anymore, much less the people (the protagonists en mass).
it is in such times that change, real change, is introduced to the scene. sets are dismantled. lead actors offed to rethicken the plot...olde and new are substituted for each...'hope' is lifted aloft with the promise of newness, which is very olde...swords that were made into plowshares are recast as swords...prince hamlets start speaking with ghosts from the past, solicitous of advice for the future.
'choice' is an illusion. inasmuch as humans are social being, all will gravitate to each -- and gravity is a law. power is a consequence of interaction, in that power is a function of the friction resulting from individual's interaction. 'democracy' is a means to both mitigate and aggregate that friction -- of the many, by the many and against the many (for your own good). life is only what you make it until all that you've made gets smashed and scrambled...and in that event, what would you choose if choice were removed and your only options were to want things that interest you not? sure, you have options; but do you have a choice? again, as the olde adage goes, "damned if you do; damned if you don't." or, if you prefer, "to be or not to be; that is the question."
for the time being, i choose to be...but it's not like i have a choice in the matter.
anyway, my first issue of the WSJ should arrive in the morning...what should i do?
janus
"While nothing is carved in stone, the odds favor the upside."
Until they dont....and that reversal could snap your neck.
Get a Hans Device.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HANS_device
Every trader should have one of those!
Just finished a pretty thorough look at how USDJPY and CL-fueled algos have driven US stocks higher, with a focus on the past five weeks in particular. If you'd like to better understand the daily machinations that allow stocks to knife through overhead resistance, have a look.
http://pebblewriter.com/how-they-did-it/
Fuck all that shit
"Who is the last Trader to figure out there is no Market?", ..... Alex
there definitely will be new all time highs. until that happens, all strong selling should be bought underneath. once the highs break, there might be a fairly substantial blow up, so be careful not to short it too early.