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Treasuries Turmoil As December Rate-Hike Odds Hit 60%
Just as we predicted...
Tomorrow a steady stream of Fed speakers will be unleashed whose purpose will be to prep the market for a Dec rate hike
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 3, 2015
With just a few words, Yellen has pushed December rate hike odds from a 50% coin flip to a 60% confidence.
This has extended the selling pressure in Treasuries with 2Y at 2011 highs (and 5Y at 3month highs)...
And the entire curve surging, as the short-end underperforms...
Credit markets are getting very anxious...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Seems familiar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=055wFyO6gag
It's the old Lucy and Charlie Brown kicking the football act. It never gets old.
Ok, maybe it does. I didn't watch it all.
Ok, so they raise .025 in Dec. Hooray!
Right after the first of the year they go NIRP.
The whole damn "sysytem" is so fucked up now it's in a tailspin and can not pull out!
Mr. Yellen raises rates <<<<<<<
Mr. Yellen goes NIRP <<<<<<<
Raise rates, then NIRP.
But....Granny Yellin just mumbled that negative interest rates may be coming.
This con game 'good troll, bad troll' maybe has a couple of more turns of the screw left in it, but this time dated material that will be duly called.
No business I know is making any sort of plans based on Fed unicorn interest rate tea leaf readings.
Maybe this explains the fucked up gold prints of the last few days, and especially this morning?
Nothing makes any sense anymore. We must be getting close to another manufactured implosion.
Sadly bro, we are way past that point. This thing has been FUBAR since the spring of 2009 when FASB 157 was done away with.
Marked to Unicorn...
That's what I'm thinkin. They spout shit (again) about a rate hike, then go on to plant another negative interest seed to prepare us for that.
What do you think they will do?
Raise in December then go NIRP in latter half of 2016.
just curious,but are the same ppl who place these odds
are the same ppl still playing the market?
one thought... current street-cred
Go barter and make a banker your bitch.
Cost of borrowing going up. Time to raise taxes.
They have us just where they wanted us.... Looks like uncle sam is going to need to steal even more from social security
No hike, as always, it is just jawbone working.
It's either rates rise alongisde helicopter money issuance, or NIRP. The economic contagion of nationally-backed fiat-credit is so widespread that true economic growth cannot occur in this environment of seemingly endless deleveraging.
Of course, it's all pretty much meaningless when viewed in the context of the FASB adjustments made in 2007-2009. If and when growth returns in the face of FASB 157's full reinstatement (not the current watered-down version), then a rate rise can be contemplated in a more meaningful context.
be on the lookout for a..
Surprise China Gold-Peg Sucker Punch
Stay Tuned.....
Remember this the next time some newsletter writer tells you the Fed "has no credibility left and no one believes them."
After December when they don't hike, they will "hint at a March hike" and the markets will react as if there is no chance they are lyng. When they launch QE17 the market and its mainstream commentators will announce we are lucky to be in the care of such studious individuals.
Who wants to bet a golden eagle it's not going to happen?
If she does raise, gold will probably rise on the news in a "sell the rumor, buy the news" way. By then paper specs will be heavily positioned short and will get absolutely reamed by the banks.
was just listening to a silver doctors podcast with Alisdair Mcleod and he goes into this, laying out a argument that China is really in control of things now and actually could force the fed to raise rates if it wanted to.
Anyway, he then goes on to argue in the 70's gold went up during a rate hike cycle because the fed was always behind the curve in raising rates (until Volker really jacked them). Worth listening to for those who want some ideas to noodle around with.
Suppose the Fed raises 0.25%...that's nothing.
Beyond the "market" reaction, the real impact of that increase would be nil and said impact would not be felt for years.
Seriously, how long would it take the Fed to normalize rates in the event that was even the plan, which, of course, it is not?
Two years?
Three?
No one should even be listening to these people, anymore. The Fed is a joke. A bad, boring joke...