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Schrodinger Schizophrenia: The Service Economy Is Both Soaring (According To ISM) And Sliding (According To PMI)
Following the "baffle 'em with bullshit" beats and misses, improvements and deteriorations in China's Services and Manufacturing PMIs, this morning we round out the US data. After US Manufacturing rose (Markit PMI) and dropped (ISM), US Services PMI dropped to 54.8 and has not been lower since January (despite modestly beating the preliminary print) amid the weakest new order volume since January and poorest employment growth in 8 months. As Markit warns, "the survey data also reinforce strong arguments – notably a continued absence of inflationary pressures – that there is no rush to tighten policy." But then, just to top off all the idiocy, ISM Services surges from 56.9 to 59.1, smashing expectations confirming the "baffle 'em with bullshit" meme.
With China entirely confusing in both Services and Manufacturing PMIs...
It is perhaps not surprising that US Manufacturing is both improving and collapsing...
But Services PMI dropped to its lowest since January as ISM Services spiked...
As Markit notes, as was the case with activity, new business volumes also increased at a slower rate in October. Moreover, with the latest expansion of new order books the slowest since January, companies were more cautious with regard to their hiring policies, with service sector employment rising at the weakest pace since February.
Services PMI notes deterioration in:
- - Client demand
- - New Busines
- - Order Books
- - Employment
- - Inflation
- - Optimism
But ISM Services saw everything improving...
As seasonal adjustments crate a surge in new orders that was entirely not present in reality...
All of which serves to confuse....
“The PMI surveys indicated that the pace of economic growth held steady in October, but remains weaker than the rate seen throughout much of the year so far. Job creation also slipped to the lowest seen for eight months, as service sector firms in particular have become increasingly nervous about committing to additional headcounts.
“The surveys nevertheless signal ongoing moderate growth of business activity and employment in the manufacturing and service sectors, which will keep alive the possibility that policymakers could be persuaded into raising interest rates before the year is over. However, the survey data also reinforce strong arguments – notably a continued absence of inflationary pressures – that there is no rush to tighten policy.
“Much will now depend on the November survey data, which will provide a reliable guide to business conditions in the fourth quarter.”
Charts: Bloomberg
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we are in deep shit..
at Least based on what i have been SEEING
with my own EYES since last Fall around here.
Black topping EVERYTHING in site.. almost like a panic..
Hiring signs EVERYWHERE for (part time)
We're Fucked..
I have notoced the hustle in construction projects in the past 6-12 months too. Not highways per se, but a shitload of local stuff.
I just don't get the total BS we're hearing about Christmas retail this year. Isn't going to happen. The FSA will get their WalMart bucks but that won't make up for what the middle class will take out.
Ordinarily I enjoy getting fucked.
Red light! Green light! Red light! It is a good children's game and now for adults, too.
The state of the economy is simultaneously alive and dead until you measure it. If you're eating, it's alive. if you're standing in a soup line, it may not be dead, but getting laid is problematic.
That's Quantum Economics, my friends, oh yeah.
Everything is coming up roses!!!
Shit happens.
Bullish.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5e56ISoJ7g
very interesting interview! must see!
Bo dont know shit.
Woah, they moved the date?
The ride that never ends.
Bo Baloney has been wrong every time. Fuck that guy.
Why so negative? Get yourself a new Tesla, now its the time.
These are surveys. I don't understand why a survey even has the potential to move markets given that the responders naturally look at everything with rose colored glasses until the bottom falls out.
Cat ass trophy.
You didn't build that.
Every data point is BS. Whole lotta for rent/lease signs in the real world
They called central bankers "policymakers."
Same article every day times a thousand. I get it, OK?
Why that low cut fences looks like somewhere in alabama? And why those ISIS looks like hillbillies?? And why their faces looks like an inbred result??
Damn!! Can't hollywood find a better actors??
Both are solidly in expansion mode, which is all that matters. This obsession with accelaration/deceleration is tiring. Just keep it moving forward.