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US Trade Deficit Narrows 15%, Smallest Since Feb 2015 As Petroleum Imports Collapse
Against expectations of a $41bn deficit, September's trade deficit was practically in line at -$40.8bn, dramatically narrower than the revised higher (less negative) August print of $48.02bn as petroleum imports plunge to lowest since May 2004. With the smallest deficit since Feb 2015, The Fed is going to need a bigger boat to have enough debt to monetize when the looming rate hike drags the economy to the point of requiring more intervention.
US petroleum imports:
The US September monthly international trade deficit decreased from $48.0 billion in August (revised) to $40.8 billion in September, as exports increased and imports decreased. The previously published August deficit was $48.3 billion.
- The goods deficit decreased $7.3 billion from August to $60.3 billion in September.
- The services surplus decreased $0.1 billion from August to $19.5 billion in September.
However, if one excludes petroleum trade, the core US trade deficit is about as about as bad as ever. Should the shale destruction continue, and US imports of oil return, this will be what happens to overall US trade.
And while the headline trade data may show improvement, breaking down the imports and exports on a Y/Y basis show that both imports and exports are down compared to last year as the global trade slowdown shows no signs of relenting:
The breakdown by category:
Exports
- Exports of goods and services increased $3.0 billion, or 1.6 percent, in September to $187.9 billion. Exports of goods increased $2.9 billion and exports of services increased $0.1 billion.
- The increase in exports of goods mainly reflected increases in consumer goods ($1.3 billion) and in capital goods ($0.9 billion).
- The increase in exports of services mainly reflected increases in travel (for all purposes including education) ($0.1 billion) and in other business services ($0.1 billion), which includes research and development services; professional and management services; and technical, trade-related, and other services.
Imports
- Imports of goods and services decreased $4.2 billion, or 1.8 percent, in September to $228.7 billion. Imports of goods decreased $4.4 billion and imports of services increased $0.1 billion.
- The decrease in imports of goods mainly reflected decreases in industrial supplies and materials ($1.6 billion), in capital goods ($1.0 billion), and in automotive vehicles, parts,and engines ($0.8 billion).
- The increase in imports of services mainly reflected an increase in travel (for all purposes including education) ($0.1 billion).
And trade broken down by geographic region:
Goods by geographic area (seasonally adjusted, Census basis)
- The deficit with China decreased from $32.9 billion in August to $30.7 billion in September. Exports increased $0.4 billion to $10.2 billion and imports decreased $1.8 billion to $41.0 billion.
- The deficit with Germany decreased from $6.8 billion in August to $5.7 billion in September. Exports increased $0.3 billion to $4.2 billion and imports decreased $0.8 billion to $9.9 billion.
- The deficit with the United Kingdom increased from $0.3 billion in August to $1.2 billion in September. Exports increased $0.2 billion to $4.8 billion and imports increased $1.0 billion to $5.9 billion.
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when you decrease a negative it is positive?
"when you decrease a negative it is positive?"
Yes, you're moving closer to zero!
By definition, there is no such thing as a ‘Trade Deficit’. They give their labor, manufacturing capacity and raw materials and we give them fiat created from nothing. No deficit! We can’t help it if they are stupid.
..and then they take that "fiat" and drive up the price of 400sqft ,literal, crack shack in LA to $400,000....creating a massive bubble within our housing market......pricing our kids out of the market and forcing them to live at home...and all of this will, eventually, crash and burn ALL AMERICANS!
Plenty of stupid to go around...
Triffin dilemma
There hasn't been a surplus since the 1970s. Decoupling from gold and peak US domestic oil production.
"We're going to need a bigger boat".
That's funny, I was thinking the same thing about my PM acquisitions as we slide deeper into the abyss...
and all of this will, eventually, crash and burn ALL AMERICANS!
What, no perpetual motion machine?
That's still money we are bleeding to other countries. Not good.
Hopefully a President Trump fixes this trade imbalance like he said he would. Trump is the only one I hear talking about the trade deficit.
"Dr. Ben Carson wants to cut federal spending, but certainly not defense spending. Defense cuts are an "idiotic" idea...that America's military is being starved, endangering the country."
WHAT AILS US IS A LACK OF MILITARY SPENDING?
And you folks want to put this moron in charge of the Military?
BEWARE Evangelicals bearing "Freedom and Democracy" as "gifts" from THEIR God!
"Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/ben-carson-cutting-defense-spending-is...
The last I heard, the US was spending over HALF of ALL global defense spending.
DavidC
Good news, raise the FFR already! Otherwise, fuck off.
good news=good for markets, bad news=good for the markets, no news=good for the markets, lower rates=good for the markets, higher rates=good for the markets, rates unchanged=good for the markets, no nuclear war=good for the markets, looming nuclear war=good for the markets, nuclear war=good for the markets, good weather=good for the markets, bad weather=good for the markets, global warming=good for the markets, no global warming=good for the markets, ebola epidemic=good for the markets, no ebola epidemic=good for the markets, more poor=good for the markets, less middlleclass=good for the markets, more jobs=good for the markets, less jobs=good for the markets...my carpel tunnel is acting up gotta stop
Who do you think coined the phrase, "It's all good!"?
Saul Goodman of course.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGKLhbirSAM
The trade deficit is Uncle Sugar's and his debt and tax-peons' net borrowing from abroad. If it drops that means either
A. Demand is lower because Uncle's found a way to live within his means (LOL) or there are fewer people in debt-peonage (ROTFLMAO)
B. Supply is lower because foreigners for whatever reason have less money to lend us.
In other words, this is Saudi and China cashing out their USD investments.
According to the Weekly Petroleum Report from EIA, imports of crude oil are down about 3% year over year. It's spectactular that the trade deficit can go 16-17% lower on that fact.
The 'threat of looming rate hike" ... when hell freezes over
My Dad was worried about America's future back in the late 70's when the trade deficit was around $40 billion annually.
Lol as if 40b is any better. In real world dollar would hyperinflate on any deficit news even 10b.
Low import? I saw service job low also. Aand pmi low also.
So, less waitress job, less flipping burgers, less making something real. That resulted i. Less importing burger & buns from china. Less plastic cups import also. And less importing china engine and label it ford/chrysler/whatever.
And need more debt dosh to financ foodstamp, shelter, and ganja. And least you still have sisters to banged on. So life is still.. AWESOME MAAAANNN!!! USA FUCK YEAHHHH..!!!