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October Jobs Soar To 271K, Smash Expectations, Unemployment Rate 5.0%, Hourly Earnings Spike
If there was any doubt if the Fed would hike rates in December, it is gone now: October payrolls soared by 271K, smashing not only consensus of 184K, but the highest expected print. This was the highest monthly print since December 2014 when the gain was 329K and pushed the YTD average monthly gain from 199K to 206K.
The household survey likewise posted a solid gain of 320K, with the number of employed rising from 148,800 to 149,120, another post-crisis high.
The unemployment rate dropped from 5.1% to 5.0%, the lowest since April 2008, and most importantly, the average hourly earnings rose from 0.2% to 0.4%, the highest hourly earnings jump since 2009!
The two charts which the Fed will be most focused on are the following, showing both average hourly and weekly earnings rebounded solidly from recent week levels.
The breakdown between full and part-time jobs saw gains in both, with the former rising by 185K, while part-timers increased by 214K in October. As a result full-time jobs have now recovered all their job losses since the recession as shown on the chart below.
The breakdown from the report:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 271,000 in October. Over the prior 12 months, employment growth had averaged 230,000 per month. In October, job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and construction. (See table B-1.)
Employment in professional and business services increased by 78,000 in October, compared with an average gain of 52,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In October, job gains occurred in administrative and support services (+46,000), computer systems design and related services (+10,000), and architectural and engineering services (+8,000).
Health care added 45,000 jobs in October. Within the industry, employment growth continued in ambulatory health care services (+27,000) and in hospitals (+18,000). Over the past year, health care has added 495,000 jobs.
Employment in retail trade rose by 44,000 in October, compared with an average monthly gain of 25,000 over the prior 12 months. In October, job gains occurred in clothing and accessories stores (+20,000), general merchandise stores (+11,000), and automobile dealers (+6,000).
Food services and drinking places added 42,000 jobs in October. Over the year, the industry has added 368,000 jobs.
Construction employment increased by 31,000 in October, following little employment change in recent months. Employment in nonresidential specialty trade contractors rose by 21,000. Over the past 12 months, construction has added 233,000 jobs.
Employment in mining continued to trend down in October (-5,000). The industry has shed 109,000 jobs since reaching a recent employment peak in December 2014.
Employment in other major industries, including manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and government, showed little or no change over the month.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 34.5 hours in October. The manufacturing workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours, and factory overtime edged up by 0.1 hour to 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents to $25.20, following little change in September (+1 cent). Hourly earnings have risen by 2.5 percent over the year. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 9 cents to $21.18 in October. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +136,000 to +153,000, and the change for September was revised from +142,000 to +137,000. With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 12,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 187,000 per month.
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Plan on a Rate Hike now.
Full Layoff / Business Closing List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
-
private equity doing fine.
Preqin: Salaries At Private Equity Firms Increase As Bonuses Rise
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
But don't worry, companies can always borrow more to make those capital investments they've put off in favor of buybacks. /s
....and if the Fed. gets an undesired reaction---cue the seasonally adjusted revisions (another announcement to be front run)
https://youtu.be/UJOjTNuuEVw
Wow, the US economy is unstoppable.
I like to sit back and watch the contortionism. They are actually quite good, but what they are not good at is actually fixing the problems. This shitshow is going to end in a motherfuckin BANG! I will sit back and enjoy the show. Long popcorn!
It's a Boom! Yeah! It's back! WooHoo! Party time!
Does anyone actually believe the government any more? Are people really that stupid?
Exactly they will tell any lie weave any story they need to in order to continue raping the taxpayer and the treasury. They must have global gov to continue this and they are making their European move now if Hillbill wins we are next. Total control is the endgame and once achieved the bread and circuses will drop to a bare maintenance level as their slave world is realized.
When will this be revised?
On the next release?
3 ... 2 ... 1 ... Liftoff!
..oh, wait a sec....
Are people really that stupid?
Sickeningly, yes.
"Does anyone actually believe the government any more? "
Sure we do. We believe they are going to bleed us dry.
Right on schedule, as tried and tested in Japan. Interesting that they skipped the intermediate, consumption tax, step. Tells me that don't quite trust all those deer hunters, esp in PA and WVA.
There's a picture of Dorian Gray in there somewhere.
There's a portrait of the biggest, ugliest, most rotten Ponzi scheme in history hanging in the Fed's attic.
Got to keep pumping that shit, Black Friday is just around the corner...
Operation Rainbow Unicorn is a go.
Can't stop won't stop, Can't stop won't stop, Can't stop won't stop, Can't stop won't stop, Can't stop won't stop, Can't stop won't stop, Can't stop won't stop, Can't stop won't stop, Can't stop won't stop, Can't stop won't stop, Can't stop won't stop, Can't stop won't stop, Can't stop won't stop, Can't stop won't stop, Can't stop won't stop, Can't stop won't stop...
The final act of a comic tragedy.
Two part time jobs is counted as two jobs. Thanks, Obama. That 29.5 hour work week is doing a bang-up job making the numbers look good.
TAA DAA!!!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-06/your-last-minute-payrolls-preview-what-wall-street-expects#comment-6757260
I think waiting for EBT to show up each month counts as a full-time job too.
The anticipation can lead to anxiety which fortunately also qualifies one for Medicaid benefits.
Don't forget spending EBT - another full time job. EBT: Two full time "jobs" in one.
"Two part time jobs is counted as two jobs."
Quantity not quality bro...
A true assessment NoDebt, that equals deflation.
the affordable healthcare and universal dental coverage is such a solid stimulus to the consumer. thank you, o.
but i dont consume anymore...i survive.
I work in IT for a large "health care" company. We arent the biggest but we're top 10. Just another tax payer dollar sucking welfare machine like most of the others.
Every year across the industry the health care companies ramp up with thousands of temp hires for the Open Enrollment which starts in October.
We hire hundreds for this and I can say that already 1 month into it now here in early November my company has already been letting go nearly all of those temps.
I'd bet so are all the other big named "health care" monsters.
So let's wait and see what the November numbers will look like after 10's of thousands of 1 or 2 month temp jobs have been terminated.
All doubt gone for a December rate hike????? Not with me. The Fed can not raise rates even 25bps....I dare them. They would implode their own book of trillions in junk that are dependent on zero interest rates and they would start a massive world-wide implosion on 10's of trillions in derivatives.
They cant raise the rate. Only lower to nirp and print more fiat. Thats it. This is all just more theater of the absurd for the sheeple.
A relative works for a third party benefits administrator and they hired a boat load of folks for the open enrollment surge. Typical start was $15hr.
On raising rates, the FED is feeling PEER pressure and I think there's a good chance they will succumb to it. The whole world can criticize the FED and they could care less…but if their peers begin to question their wisdom, which has been occurring even in public, then they listen up and start “rethinking” their actions. I would not be surprised by a .25% hike as a “see, we know what we’re doing and we’re in control” move to ease the peer pressure.
Good info/analyses. So what you're saying is, btfd?
Thanks! And hellz yes, youbetychya, BTFD always and whenever possible. Today was payday from "the monster" so yer dern right I used some of that fiat to take advantage of more manipulation and I bought me some O'that fuckin' dip.
So as they say on one of my fav shows, "Let'er rip, tater chip!" And "gitchew summuh that!"
Any guesses?
;-)
This industry is always in need of workers:
http://www.thepornster.net/video/67/
Wait until you see the money shot around those "employees" :)))
they will raise them 25 basis points a few times and then immediately remove them and go negative as soon as the 'markets' need it.
rate normalization? no chance. this is just a head fake to prove that they are not biased and owned. its a token bull shit hike to silence the critics.
fucking simpleton reverse psychology.
Come on Guy's! What?!? Do you need a refresher course!?!? It's all Temp's now!
Now get me some 30 weight oil and some ball bearings...................
Local costume warehouse/website was looking to hire 1,700 temp workers for order filling...this is in a metro area of about 90k people with the smaller towns nearby.
They're starting to let go of folks now that the season is over with...I hear you on temp hires, but that'll be "seasonally adjusted" so the overall outcome will be the same.
This is amazing. I'm so happy, Christmas came early. This proves the FED was right all along and was smart of them to wait! This poves with out a shadow of a doubt that December IS the time to raise rates. I'm so relived and I'm sure so is the FED. We'll be back to normal rates very soon now. The only question is how much will they raise it in Dec? I'm thinking at least .75 now. Congrats FED! The Dec hike is nothing but a formaility now.
because, DEC, when the markets are at the thinnest is EXACTLY the right time to raise rates. Maximum volatility on no liquidity. Made for the traders. Oh, G-S told you it was best to do this when it didn't DISTURB the folks on holiday? "Don't worry Janet, they will just put in stop-loss orders in case things move out of line." Of course, "no trading experience needed" tops the list of requirements for FED chair. Maybe she can keep everyone in their seats from Black Friday to New Year's Eve.
Who is hiring? All I see is people losing jobs, getting demoted or hours cut. The Oil patch was the one and only bright patch in the US economy, but that began to vanish last year.
Absolutely. They're just lyin' in their reports so they can steal some more. Programming algos with false headlines.
With the numbers of "disabled" people I see parking cars in the disabled spot and running up the Post Office steps to get their mail, most people don't even need a job if they don't want one.
B_U_L_L_S_H_I_T_!!!!!
Really?
Anyone want to take a shot at how many times this print will be revised once the election has passed?
Twice. Next month and the following month.
Yeah, total BS. In what alernate universe are all of these good things happening for workers?
Not sure where you live but things are pretty good here in Oceania.
Birth/Death Model = PLUS 165,000 !!!!!! Yeah! Sure!
It has been revised to Immigrant/Death Model.
"B_U_L_L_S_H_I_T_!!!!!"
I don't think so...there are "help wanted" signs all over the place around here for low end jobs. Grocery store up the street is offering $10hr to sack groceries...$12hr if you'll work the night shift...median income in this town in $28k...so $24k to stock shelves is pretty impressive. Even the burger joints are adverting $9hr.
Freinds/Family/Aquintances in high paying skilled jobs report that they're hiring...not crazy hiring, but they're busy and there is money for a few more people.
Looks like those TRILLIONS pumped in are finally starting to work...and the FED raises rates...and it all blows up because ever falling rates (cheap money) is all that's "under" this "recovery".
Well...good for "around here"...Now, what about EVERYWHERE ELSE?
median income in this town in $28k
Well....not everyone can be middle class.
""median income in this town in $28k"
Well....not everyone can be middle class."
$28k x 2 = $56k...that's a respectable household income in these parts...you can live well on that....a 2000sqft house in a decent area can be had for $200k. Just looked at a 900sqft condo in a PRIME area for $90k; very affordable for a couple earning $56k total...so 2 people stocking shelves can afford a really nice, but small, place to live...explains why nearly all new home construction locally is $250k and up and sells well.
Sounds like some of the best working conditions for slaves around. Congrats.
God bless Comrade Obama. Forward!
"Now, what about EVERYWHERE ELSE?"
You tell me, what's happening where you live? And if sucks, they why do you live there?
I'm old enough to have experienced plenty of cycles. What happens "around here", is typically behind the rest of the nation by at least 6 months for economics and a good year or so fashion/pop-culture wise.
"Brought to you by Carl's Junior!"
Looks like we are going to need some more "Economic Migrants!"
How many of the 95 million are:
> On disability?
> Living off their parents?
> Living off their spouse..I don't mean that negatively...I'm seeing one income families (by choice) more and more as the cost of child care can consume/exceed a full time income.
> working for cash "off the books"?
> in prison?
> living off the grid? "tiny house" living is gaining popularity. One local couple lived in a tent in the woods from Spring through Fall (they rent in the winter) because they like living in nature..and since there's no rent, there's little need for work...certainly NOT 40rs+ a week.
Just because 95 million people are not CORPORATE SLAVES, don't assume they're all wishing they could be...
assuming you can get 40 hours. I've looked into those high paying low skill jobs and yes--that will get paid but the hours worked aren't 40.
Honestly I've been seeing the same thing in the Philadelphia region. I was laid off in January this year, and found a new job full-time job within a month paying higher. I might be a lucky one but during that 1 month of job searching, there was a lot of jobs open. Many of the my friends who were employed at my old job got the pink slip later on in the year. Now, they got full time jobs too. I travel around and do see 'hiring' signs as you have indicated. Indeed.com and linkedin had so many jobs for all kinds of analysts: business analysts, claims analysts, financial analysts, data analysts, qa, etc.
I do agree with most that there is a disconnect somewhere. However, since my new job, everything I buy is with cash and have started to accumulate 1 oz silver bars just in case.
Not being a smart ass but where is around here?
"Well the world needs ditch diggers too."
A ditch merely being an elongated grave.
Digging ditches is a win-win scenario. You dig the ditch, and government hires others to fill it in. Bullish!
271,000 jobs / 50 states = 5420 jobs per state...and you find that hard to believe?
I don't find it hard to believe. It's just that the number is shit.
B_U_L_L_I_S_H_I_T There fixed it for you!
Rate hike is back on bitches.
The USD is crashing upwards .......
I believe that Jim Willie has nailed it...He has stated for a while that the USD will rise and rise and then POOF...His solid logic is that derivatives are valued in USDs...Just the ones from the oil fiasco are in the hundreds of billions and maybe over a trillion...The derivatives are blowing up which causes synthetic demand for USDs.
Agree. Even Testy is on board
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-05/giant-sucking-sound-capital-des...
A "randomnly generated number" perfect for Dec rate hike AND short seller carnage today. Pay no attention to the contradiction here. Everything is awesome.
There may not be short seller carnage.
Wall Street is just as likely to trade lower on the fact that the fed is actually, really, well probably going to raise rates in December.
7 standard deviation miss by Wallstreet banks on this one? Seeing a lot of those. Big banks data and analytics is useless? I don't think so.
analyze this bullshit for what it is
we see inventory build, transportation dropping, major economic indicators falling....and Americans are hiring.
Go figure. Maybe they are hiring for auction houses doing liquidations?
There has to be a reconciliation of FACTS.
Topping pattern nearly complete...
(Topping pattern = time it takes for the A$$holes to unload their bags of $hit to the bagholders)
Happy days are here again....
until the polar vortex hits!
El Niño ate polar vortex for lunch.
Gold bloodbath time.
It feels like a golden shower
yup and silver is now at $14.88!
Here's how it works. "OK, Janet, hint at a rate hike again. Goldman, boys, set job expectations at 150k-190k and we'll hit 'em with 271k new jobs at the report and immediately start shorting the metals hard. Everyone got it? Everyone on board? OK, let's do this."
Or something like that, IMHO.
Goal seeking number....
A 90,000 jobs deviation is built into the fake jobs numbers each month. Subtract 90,000 and you get the "real" fake number.
5% is a fantasy... maybe 20%?
The ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate for August 2015 is 22,9%.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
95 million with no job and not being counted out of a potential workforce of 220 million. Lets see, that boils down to about 43% unemployment rate. And of that, what percentage is non-white.
Even U6 is very questionable!
But WTF, Gold is down so those with all that QE cash can go buy a big pile!!
pass
Good odds of Gold going to $900 or less...been saying that since the spike/crash a few years back...down arrowed every time I post it...but I've been right all the way.
Yes! And the Benghazi attack was because of a VIDEO!
THESE NUMBERS ARE 100% BARRY SOETORO BS!
I that guy still in prison?
Boy they are so desperate to raise rates by Hannukah , they weren't leaving the number to any chance. Making the first number 1 a 2.
We reserve the right to revise and extend our remarks if anything important develops.
Sorry derivative complex.
It was nice knowing ya.
Amazing how when welfare and food stamps run out, singles without children will take any job at all.
Throw in the towel zh, s'over.
TRUE. A stock market crash is ASSURED now. It is only a matter of time.
Buy physical gold & silver today, during the FED sell off of PMs.
TRUE. A stock market crash is ASSURED now. It is only a matter of time.
Buy physical gold & silver today, during the FED sell off of PMs.
TRUE. A stock market crash is ASSURED now. It is only a matter of time.
Buy physical gold & silver today, during the FED sell off of PMs.
Great number. Now I won't have to wait in line as long when grabbing a latte or burger!
Temporary jobs for holidays..see what happens in january
Might as well have been 600K jobs...totally bogus...wait for the revisons to come.....
Fed is trying to paint a completely different reality to save its neck on 7 years of disasterous policies....somehow those moves never worke out so well in the end for Soviet Union....Now the same in the US.
That's what I was thinking. The signal is clear to raise rates. If they do that and it all falls apart, they can simply stand on their decision based on the numbers they were given, then they play the circle jerk blame game.
now would be a good time to start ww3
balls in your court Putin,Xi
I get all my financial advice from cnbc. Yesterdays most popular article was whether we should have sex with robots- Experts weigh in.
No shit. Caitlyn, Robots, and Facebook. Fuck me running.
Exactly what they are telling you....be prepared to be fucked while running....away.
this calls for drinks all around..waiter only the best crystal, now toast mr yellen..genius. higher wages higher employed and no body in my town can sell a home near by county had a total of 20 homes sold last year.. what's up with that?
Christmas jobs that will be gone by January.
This Christmas sales numbers will be a DISASTER!
I went to a mall last week during lunch, and it was a GHOST town literally.
There will not be a word said about it when the downward revision comes out a month from now.
Finally, a frabrication of numbers that doesn't serve the stock market.
Which is why I fully expect the following statement from .gov and da fed.
Unemployment numbers are being recalibrated toward actual non participation rates. This new standard in effect has yielded a 19.6 percent unemployment you FUCKIN MOOKS!
Therefore, negative rates must commence. Oh yeah, cash is banned. And hard workin mercians is code for you need a credit card to keep the heat, electric and phone bill.
Which is why I fully expect the following statement from .gov and da fed.
Unemployment numbers are being recalibrated toward actual non participation rates. This new standard in effect has yielded a 19.6 percent unemployment you FUCKIN MOOKS!
Therefore, negative rates must commence. Oh yeah, cash is banned. And hard workin mercians is code for you need a credit card to keep the heat, electric and phone bill.
Which is why I fully expect the following statement from .gov and da fed.
Unemployment numbers are being recalibrated toward actual non participation rates. This new standard in effect has yielded a 19.6 percent unemployment you FUCKIN MOOKS!
Therefore, negative rates must commence. Oh yeah, cash is banned. And hard workin mercians is code for you need a credit card to keep the heat, electric and phone bill connected.
holy shit, shrodinger's comment! The force was strong with that one.
Yet, S&P futures down only 0.25% on the news. Had the employment numbers been bad, futures would have been up 2% right now.
I wonder if govt trying to specifically target the price of PMs, even to the point of taking on collateral damage by the stock market? If so, would suggest that PMs are the controller of all the manipulation here. In other words, the Banks absolutely must keep the canary muzzled, even if it means taking a hit (temporarily) in stawks.
I didn't know there's a word for it: tasseography.
We have to wait and see how this data holds up after “adjustments”. No doubt, most of these “new” jobs are temp positions- low pay, no benefits and no job security. Paul Craig Roberts has written extensively on the Labor Department’s employment statistics. See: www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/10/02/todays-payroll-jobs-report-paul-crai...
It is a farce that the economy is supposedly doing so well and rates are still at zero! Shouldn't the FOMC have an emergency meeting and rasie rates aggresively straight away by one percent?
they wont raise rates until their measure of actual inflation is moving up strongly.
Now we know why Cosco, Target, McDs, and many others are closing stores this coming year. Everyone is too busy working to go shopping.
(late addittion, I was worried for a moment that the labor participation rate had soared and I might be forced to go back to work. wheew. Nope no change in labor participation. Thank goodness I and a huge percent of the population still don't have to get up every morning and go to work. I can rest easy, thank you Obuttfuck.)
"Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded"
They are closing store because they OVER-BUILT! There are THREE Targets, one a MASSIVE Super Target, within 4 MILES of my house...that is rediculous...even so, none are on the closing list.
McD's is closing stores because they SUCK! I was in LA recently and Drove by an 'In and Out' burger joint...absolutely PACKED with cars...and literally, just down the street, sat a McDonalds with an empty parking lot...if that dynamic doesn't change FAST, the McD's is a gonner!
We asked the Chinese to help us calulate the jobs report and this is what they gave us for numbers.
Just why some continue to anticipate and react to these absurd statistics is beyond reason. None of it is even remotely connected to reality. Manufactured culture.
AGREED Deus. We are in Oz now.
Uh oh. Now they need to think of a reason not to raise rates.
No coincidence that Yeller and Dudley were all cocky about things getting better in recent days - it's quite obvious this number is an inside job. then again, this is not very surprising.
they work for primary dealers and hedge funds and their gigantic futures and derivatives positions - the only thing that matters to them.
So they are Lying now or they were Lying before, this doesn't vilify them
Oct. jobs less birth / death adjustment = "actual" job growth
+271,000 - (+165,000) = 106,000
I like it. Virtual money, virtual reality. Now we have virtual people employed.
THIS IS THE BIGGEST LOAD OF CRAP I HAVE EVER FUCKING SEEN.
YA IM SURE 271000 JOBS WERE FUCKING, THERE IS ZERO CHANCE THIS NUMBER IS NOT REVISED WAY WAY LOWER NEXT MONTH, BUT DONT WORRY, AT LEAST FUCKING WALL STREET BASTARDS GOT THE REACTION THEY WERE LOOKING FOR IN THE MOMENT.
THIS SHIT IS SO FUCKING LAUGHABLE, THIS ECONOMY IS A FUCKING DIASASTER AND YOU HAVE FUCKIN HEADS ON TV SAYING HOW THE ECONOMY IS FUCKING RESIILENT
WE ARE IN A MOTHER FUCKING DEPRESSION, BUT AS LONG AS THEY MONKEY HAMMER GOLD AND SILVER I GUESS ITS ALL GOOD .
FUCK YOU WALL STREET, DIE YOU BASTARDS
Let me guess, you are all in on precious metals?
relax, have a bloody mary - you have to realize D.C. (district of ciminals) are in complete criminal control and lie bigger every day because they have to - and that even the brain dead US public is starting to catch on - give it 5 more years max
I appreciate your sentiment but your broken cap-lock is giving me eye strain and with my wonderful obuttfuck affordable monkey care I can't afford that. Can I order you a new keyboard?
Please...tell us what you really think.
(I fully concur by the way).
brought to you by the wonder of creative accounting
So we are at FULL EMPLOYMENT. Break out the party hats. NO slack in the labor markets
No. No. No. More data needs to be checked first.
Healthcare jobs was the massive gainer. Everything else other than specialty contractors (housing) was rather weak. So O care and Fed housing pump are having their effect for now. Rates rising will kill the housing portion. Healthcare is just a runaway train...
Anyone who believes this lacks a brain stem, which is what, 90% of the population.
I just want to ask a simple question. Who are the stupid fucks who actually believe this fucking shiteThere must be some brain damaged retards that suck this shit up, but for me to imagine what goes on in their fucked up neurons is like trying to imagine what a fucking daisy thinks about all day.
Hurry go to walmart and buy your holiday gifts. Everything is so awesome now that they said it was.
The market is going to believe.
.
.
Tyler, there is a funny bug, here: I try to reply to 6757488, and I get somewhere else
You'll have to wait till januari for adjustments.
5% my ass more like 50% wheres my beer!?