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October Jobs Soar To 271K, Smash Expectations, Unemployment Rate 5.0%, Hourly Earnings Spike
If there was any doubt if the Fed would hike rates in December, it is gone now: October payrolls soared by 271K, smashing not only consensus of 184K, but the highest expected print. This was the highest monthly print since December 2014 when the gain was 329K and pushed the YTD average monthly gain from 199K to 206K.
The household survey likewise posted a solid gain of 320K, with the number of employed rising from 148,800 to 149,120, another post-crisis high.
The unemployment rate dropped from 5.1% to 5.0%, the lowest since April 2008, and most importantly, the average hourly earnings rose from 0.2% to 0.4%, the highest hourly earnings jump since 2009!
The two charts which the Fed will be most focused on are the following, showing both average hourly and weekly earnings rebounded solidly from recent week levels.
The breakdown between full and part-time jobs saw gains in both, with the former rising by 185K, while part-timers increased by 214K in October. As a result full-time jobs have now recovered all their job losses since the recession as shown on the chart below.
The breakdown from the report:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 271,000 in October. Over the prior 12 months, employment growth had averaged 230,000 per month. In October, job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and construction. (See table B-1.)
Employment in professional and business services increased by 78,000 in October, compared with an average gain of 52,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In October, job gains occurred in administrative and support services (+46,000), computer systems design and related services (+10,000), and architectural and engineering services (+8,000).
Health care added 45,000 jobs in October. Within the industry, employment growth continued in ambulatory health care services (+27,000) and in hospitals (+18,000). Over the past year, health care has added 495,000 jobs.
Employment in retail trade rose by 44,000 in October, compared with an average monthly gain of 25,000 over the prior 12 months. In October, job gains occurred in clothing and accessories stores (+20,000), general merchandise stores (+11,000), and automobile dealers (+6,000).
Food services and drinking places added 42,000 jobs in October. Over the year, the industry has added 368,000 jobs.
Construction employment increased by 31,000 in October, following little employment change in recent months. Employment in nonresidential specialty trade contractors rose by 21,000. Over the past 12 months, construction has added 233,000 jobs.
Employment in mining continued to trend down in October (-5,000). The industry has shed 109,000 jobs since reaching a recent employment peak in December 2014.
Employment in other major industries, including manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, and government, showed little or no change over the month.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 34.5 hours in October. The manufacturing workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours, and factory overtime edged up by 0.1 hour to 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents to $25.20, following little change in September (+1 cent). Hourly earnings have risen by 2.5 percent over the year. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 9 cents to $21.18 in October. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +136,000 to +153,000, and the change for September was revised from +142,000 to +137,000. With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 12,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 187,000 per month.
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Approxametly 43% unemployment rate, 95 million-ish with no job out of a available workforce of 220 million-ish.
I heard 90 ish employed rest might be bs, pathetic fudge numbers...
It's clear that the market was trading on this earlier in the week when it gained 2% in two trading days. This was leaked and traded on already.
And right on cue, stock futures have a collective shitting of pants...no more heroin oh noes!!
They just report what they need people to see for their latest trades and coverups.
how will they show great retail sales for this holiday season?
They will mix in tax (i.e. ObamaCare expenditures) as they already do. The Holiday season will be the worse in many years, but bad news is the new good news. They can always just focus on the one or two companies that fare well, like Hasbro will with the Star Wars sales.
These mean nothing it will get revised downward, but it's all part of the plan to elect a Democrat as president next year. Obama just got a credit card with an unlimited spending limit from John Boehner.
I do not believe there will be an selection; they may have already decided on King Obama. Just look at what our policy is now, we attack and disrupt the democratically elected "ally's" and install new regimes that are hand picked and we arm the non-democratic ones. Our country has been completely hi-jacked as shown by our foreign "engagements", which is murder and disruption of ordinary people trying to etch out survival. Mankind is doomed.
GOAL SEEK THEORY WINS AGAIN.
HOW PATHETIC
I will wait for the revisions, adjustments, and obviously the smarter than Government mployees schills review to really tell us what happened.
Even the most bullish gotta be scratchin their heads on his one. So stunning it is SAD
Now they have to raise the rates... wait a minute... showers are predicted, they can't.
wow, financial babblemonkeys on full-retard this morning!
#NeverGoFullRetard
I guess we know nothing at ZERO HEDGE. ZIRP and FULL EMPLOYMENT what a contradiction.
Service Sector jobs mostly.Nothing to right home to mom about.You can't pay off huge deficits at any level of government,especially federal and state when only cheaper paying jobs are being created.McDonald's hiring again?
Burgers and beer recovery.
"Record number of manufacturing jobs returning to America"
"Sixty thousand manufacturing jobs were added in the U.S. in 2014, versus 12,000 in 2003"
"Made In China" is a not a selling point and companies try to hide it as best they can; while "Made in the USA" is appearing more and more on the front of the box.
Menards Building Centers do "Made in the USA" sales...flyer is like 15 pages of stuff...all could easily be Made in China..but they're not.
moar free shit means not having to work
So ... feelin' all confident about borrowing money to blow on Xmas shit? And to vote for Hillary?
Now go Spend, Consume, Procreate, Watch TV!
Math time: "...with the number of employed rising from 148,800 to 149,120, another post-crisis high...".
So, they have 320 more jobs? 320 more jobs! And they waited how many years for this news to raise rates? WTF?
"Seasonal Adjustments" ... at this time of year the geniuses have determined that no matter how shitty the number they need to add 200k to it at least so that people go buy Xmas shit.
Some seasonal adjusments are as high as 800k, I think. I am left wondering when they offset with a negative seasonal adjustment. Haven't seen that happen.
Plenty of Mexicans pushing lawnmowers in Houston.
We're having a late sumer and I'm sure that is the cause of the optimistic report.
So rate rise for real, or just a whole lot more theatre.
A 15-25 bp's is a rate hike?
The PPT will be out early and often?
The FEDS will have already done back-room deals to continue on the NIRP path, the ban on cash, continuation of counterfeit printing to allow all to continue on the "Economic Death Path".
Get ready to Buy The Dip; if you have anything left.
Refugee is a new employment category thus the increase.
Makes perfect sense...if you expected somethig different, that's on you . There is a plan and it is being executed .
Another glorious triumph for the Ministry of Plenty.
Extra imitation chocolate and cigarette rations for all Oceanians with EBT cards.
whoopee! time to celebrate with the $14.00 left on my ONLY credit card outta 20 thats not peaked out!! made my fuckin day yanet jellen! wtf...........
271k eh? What happened. McDonalds, Starbucks, Walmart, et al have a turnaround and are hiring again?
/sarc
Dont question the Economy. Barry has done it. We are at FULL EMPLOYMENT. Where is John Williams?
B/D model added 165k jobs, after they had deducted 34k in Sept.
Its obvious that THEY want to raise rates.
Don't worry, Gartman's on it. Says we're still in a bull market. It's on Yahoo Finance, so it must be TRUE DAT!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/were-still-bull-market-dennis-100435094.html
BTW, it wasn't 320 more jobs, it's 320,000, still not a big number.
Yeh, they talk of NIR and jobs report indicates they want positive interest rates, or just wanna make people forget about NIR.
Whatever, this Jobs report is as it is for a particular reason. What the reason, really?
A currency game?
HAHAHA! 5%. This is an insult to the Americans' intelligence.
Does anyone believe if these job numbers are real that they are permanent hires? Not a chance in hell.
An increase in Consumer Credit should just complete the farce that everything is goud.
Whoop there it is!
Yey, a strong dollar, great for...for..for...hmmm
When the American people get tired of all these lies there will be REVOLUTION.
Sorry but the majority of American's don't know their asses from first base and could care less about any of this. As long as they are not immediately affected and they can still access FaceBook, Twitter and Instagram, then everything is awesome. Remember: Reality is perception.
So you are saying that as long as the sheep are happy nothing is going to change? I understand now.
Couple these numbers with the increase in frequence of email from Fidelity, and I see gloom and doom. I always do, tho. Gloomy doomy.
Get ready for talk of the FED being behind the curve ; hence will have to raise rates more aggressively than previous thought. 50 bps hike becomes very plausible or raises of 25 bps back to back which was previously not on the radar
"; hence will have to raise rates more aggressively than previous thought"
Mr. Schiff? Paging Mr. Peter Schiff!!!
so now its "100%" likely for a Dec rate 'hike'.....feels like a sell the news. gold had been popping on any mention of nirp, funny how they talk about nirp while telling us rate hike is data dependent--like employment whose goalposts get moved over and over...U3 at 5.5%, "not good enough, other areas indicate slack"....so really maybe U3 is a waste of time.
it would be more interesting if congress would ask yellen to explain negative swap rates...and if its so great why is europe doing nirp, boj buying the equity market, china loading up 10B/month in liquidity?
gold, as measured via sentiment indicators is as hated as ever in the past several years.
if the 'mkt' does the most devious actions to hit the most people while off guard, then a complete reversal from this, here, today, what everyone now "KNOWS" would be appropos.
I feel like I just shit a solid gold brick because that is what my gold is worth now. Yes, my ass hole is definitely bleeding.
So, cue the ANAL-cysts who will come out of the woodwork to say that it's time to raise rates, since everything is so awesome and everybody should buy MOAR STAWKS because real estate is not a good investment and Obamacare is working, the refugee crisis is contained (to Europe) and Hillary or Rubio (paid shill for the NWO, MIC, fill in the blank _____) will be the next president.
Did I mention that "everything is awesome?"
New all-time highs within two weeks. Just watch. Wall Street can dela with .25% increase. No problemo.
Yes, and employment in Canada is now at an all-time high too. How a commodity based economy can do that in a the midst of a commodity onslaught is baffling. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/unemployment-rate
I don't know about you, but I just made 40K on the USD/JPY.
All those new jobs must be the result of all the advertising on Breitbart dot com.
Revisons, revisions, revisions.
I still expect no rate hike. They have found an excuse not to hike at every past opportunity, why start now?
Well it is now Show Time in December. Does the Dollar break out towards 120 with a RATE HIKE and everything else gets smashed. Barry gonna flood the economy with money next year as Fed raises rates.
One bright spot in this economy is technology jobs. Salaries in the NYC area are up 30% yoy if you can believe it. I attribute part of this to telling Americans not to go into the technology space because they're outsourcing everything overseas and you won't find a job so we have shortages. Couple that with cheap capital and plenty of funding in this space and you have a bubble of demand far outstripping supply.
US electronic sales of material and services are in the tank. Austin, TX is a good example of the consolidation and out sourcing. Where there were once hundreds of electronics and software small businesses, there are now just a very few. The impact was terrible.
They will not raise rate in december. The progressives will never allow dear leader to have a market crash under him.
The FED cares only about it's reputation; which is on the line here. It's feeling peer pressure from the academic community to raise rates, and I wouldn't bet against them caving in.
dotn you know, the new thing is to crash the market every 7 years so the other party gets to blame the previous one and we change White house party affiliates. then the new guy comes in and 'cleans up' by doing whatever wall st tells him to.
there is one party in this country.
Let's see the FED raise rates to 4% and watch the DOW nose-dive to 5000.
Then, and only then, will we see our economy for what it is (in shambles and out of time).
Guess NIRP is NIXED. WE are at Full employment never thought I would see the day. All you college students living at home go out and get a job, get your own place, take on more loans.
Best days on ZH are when the posters go tongue-in-cheek. This is shaping up to be a good read today.
We are fortunate to have credible data reoprting unlike china where the numbers are goal seeking.
God bless us.
Sarcasm? I certainly hope so...
Shelf stockers and retail sales associates for the Christmas sales boom, which I expect will be nonexistent.
Winning!
True, imagine what the numbers will look like at the beginning of next year. They should be catastrophic.
We say bs when we see it! mofos
given the level of the participation rate....if one wanted that to come back to 20 yr average (rather than 30 yr lows)....we'd need to see 400K+ every month for years.
on the household survey, if you tell them yes you have a job as a realtor, but yet to sell a house...youre 'employed'
helping the kids sell for school/sports/etc this fall, there are a few houses who bought big...yet this year avg sale/house is lower and many, esp older folk, just hand you $1. the winners yell real loud and anyone not 'winning' is shamed, after this is a meritocracy right?
I feel like farting in a paper bag and ASSfixiating myself. :(
A day in the life of the squid:
We put in the highest projection so naturally we were positioned for an ok figure but we just accidentally made a ton of cash, thanks for playing.
There is exactly zero percent chance the Fed will raise rates even a bit. Until Obama is out of office they will continue to do their job and protect him from the consequences of his policies.
Once Obama is out though, the next President better watch out.
As to the numbers... We all know the government would never lie to us.
This is really scary! Not because of the outright lies, but rather that essentially the banksters have gone "all-in" on the facade and that "something" is almost guaranteed to happen between now and that December FOMC meeting! It could be a HAARP-created natural disaster like Fukashima or a grid-down or cyber banking attack from the listed enemy De Jour- but it's almost guaranteed now. Because now they've been called, but they can never, ever turn those cards over to see the shit they've been bluffing with and raise rates.
Good jobs?
Or the kind where you must work 2 or 3 of them in order to make ends meet?
America loves temps.
Bagdad Bob says Obummer Care increases have no effect on the economy at all - everything is great and people will spend till it hurts this Christmas.
Ya everything is so great I just took more out of investments and bought a freeze dryer for long term food storage - I do not see the light at the end of the tunnel.
Does any cogent human believe this?
No, but the algos are all that matters.
Delay tactics for more consolidation and globalist policy making. The old guard is dying off handing the reigns over to a new generation of pyschopaths and traitors is almost complete.
They play this game every time they report.
let's WAIT for the CORRECTIONS!!!!!!!.,they always report positive only to go NEGATIVE.
And badly.
A nagging feeling is telling me you may well be on to something.
Bumped my gold position on the dreaded gold slam with gold down $17...85% of the way home.
In a soviet-style system, economic data do not drive policy, policy drives economic data. Thought for the day...
Shocker. ..the report fall is line with narrative being pushed the last week by our overlord bankers. Start shorting builders now. With trid and residential rates poised to pop there is zero chance the units will move this quarter unless the homes are discounted. People barely qualify now and even .5 raise in lending rates will eliminate buyer's ability to buy.
The machines don't understand the concept of a lie. All these bullshit numbers are literal to them. Strange that everything else sold off on this "news". Surely more people working would be good for consumption and commodities etc, maybe building your house on sand and bullshit isn't a great idea after all.
Get over that cliff Mr(s) Yellen, we've waited long enough for you to take your rightful place as stooge of the century!
I can hear the chant now. "Oh thank you Satan, another month of propaganda and lies, another month of lulling the public back to sleep."
Well my goodness, this report has gone a long way toward fixing their little problem over in the bullion banks. Looky there, gold is dirt and silver is poopoo.
Alllll better.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/10/31/uk-swiss-sovereign-money-idUKKCN0SP0FW20151031
http://www.niepelt.ch/notes/switzerland-will-vote-on-vollgeld/
http://www.vollgeld-initiative.ch/english/
Will they still be getting the Christine LaGarde numerology reports, so they'll know how to run the monetary system?
These figures smell of bovine excrement.
It's just more lying with statictics (on steroids like the cops).
http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/
The article failed to mention human trafficking.
You know when underage prostitution is high, the economy has to be booming.
I like them 'just of age' does that site have coupons?
Unbelievable! I literally do not believe the numbers.
Seems to contradict everything people are seeing in their daily lives.
Companies are getting smart to get around the lay off notices on state DoL sites.
They either shift jobs to another part of the state making the person quit or they are using the restructuring / re-organization to lay off higher paid workers w/ severance and back fill some of the jobs at lower salary or as contractors.