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About That Surge In Retail & Construction Jobs
As one witty observer noted over the weekend, "no one with an IQ greater than their shoe size, save corrupt, captured American economists, buys the fake October unemployment report," and while we agreed with the pretext of his thesis, we thought a quick sanity check on the sudden surges in Retail employment and Construction jobs and wage growth would help clarify a few things for those who 'believe' in miracles. As the following two simple charts show, we have seen this odious pattern of mal-investment, mis-allocation, and erroneous executuve extrapolation before... and it did not end well.
First - Retail..
Something stinks. Retail stock prices have been plunging (despite the promises of increased spending amid expectations of wage growth - which today NYFed admitted was at its lowest on record) and just tonight we see Banana Republic see Same Store Sales collapse 15% and Gap overall down 4%.
We have seen this before...
Coincidence we are sure.
Second - Construction.
Having already pointed out the anomalous surge in construction jobs weekly payrolls print, we thought exposure of the raw underbelly of the construction industry would help. As Framing Lumber prices crash over 21% year-over-year, it just seems odd that construction jobs would keep surging onwards and upwards as if nothing had happened. Of course, this 'confidence' in the face of market-implied doom has been seen before...
And did not end well.
* * *
So apart from Retail and Construction sectors entirely decoupling - in an almost perfect replay of the lead-up to the last crash - it seems everything is on target for a rate hike.
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Nantucket sleighride!
The bigger lag makes an even larger snag!
HOLY SHIT! Those charts are something else. Perfect match without twisting, turning, and extrapolating.
Do the rate hike. Better sooner than later.
But it is different this time...it's always different this time....really, really different....and not in a good way
" It's contained. "
"...Largely"
How can you tell when Obama is lying?
When you see his semen stained teeth and purple gums....
Increment n in QEn.
Next?
the real story is told with income tax revenue. When someone takes a job at 1/2 their prior income the employment number remains the same, but tax revenues fall off a cliff.
Too bad someone told the IRS to stop publishing on this site in 2010. I'm sure it's out there somewhere in a non obvious location.
https://www.irs.gov/uac/SOI-Tax-Stats-Individual-Information-Return-Form...
25 bps is hardly a rate hike. Even then it'll be quickly pulled back when everything falls apart.
As others have said, it might be an attempt to save face by the Fed or it might be an attempt to reload the 'bazooka' for the next go round (hardly).
It'll be interesting to see just how the odds play out the closer we get to rate hike event horizon.
If I was a betting man I'd wager there will be no hike. They literally can't do it, they're all crack whores addicted to free money now. They were warned about the moral hazard they were embarking on but did they listen? NO!
the Fed was instructed not to disrupt the 2015 bonus season for Wall Street. It's what I believe, and not what I can "prove". But I do believe that Wall Street income/bonuses have been generated solely from the Fed's incremental easing. They are the cream of the parasite class on America.
My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do... www.wallstreet34.com
You're saying we have a year and a half until the crash? Not likely.
Cycle research says 2017,so yes, a year and a half.Get plenty of Jiffie Pop(love that shit!)relax and wait...its coming...
Fuck I can't wait that long!
By looking at all these stats plus the Baltic dry and Shanghai and china containerized freight index dropping at the busiest time of the season it seems that we are in worse shape than 2008 but they are doing one hell of a job covering this up.
Do you think U.S. foreign policy precipitates something 'untimely' before 2017? If yes, you answered correctly...
Better not take that long to crash...I can't take this shit show here in Kanada anylonger...50 years old, only min wage work available, can barely afford to support my last luxury, cigs. Cunts.
I hope this doesn't mean we have 2-3 years left. I've got a boat full of silver burning a hole in my pocket. But yes, this points towards more evidence of a bubble. The evidence never stops coming, but my goodness this gravy train knows no end.
When the other option is let the chips fall where they may, then extend and pretend is the ONLY option. There's no telling how long they can go. They're all in.
The construction jobs always have a temporary spike in October. This is when all the Powerplants around the country start going down for maintenance after the summer peak demand and to get patched up for the winter heating season. Electricity demand and rate price are down to lows at this time so its the best time to schedule repair. You can take a couple plants of grid while the others generate.
Dont worry, they are temporary, short term contracted jobs that only last between 2weeks to 3 months each and then it back to the Unemployment line. I got friends who do this kind of stuff. They are counted as and called construction workers but they are really industrial maintenenance work.
seasonally adjusted of course.
You mean like the retail surge in November for Christmas help, say it ain't so.
Sounds about right and lets not forget all of the seasonal Christmas help that gets hired for 8 weeks and then gone. Oh I hope I did not offend anyone by using the word Christmas, maybe I should have said the holiday shopping season hahaha.
Was at the gym today and cnbc was on, couldn't turn the channel cause somebody hid the remote. Some assclown was on and he was saying that lower income AMericans are feeling more postive about their financial future. I shit you not. And he said it with a straight face.
My gym is the range and lifting a 7 lb. SD shotgun. Sometimes I only get it waist high.
Gold Bitchez.....I pick up pennies
CNBC must have been talking about low income illegals.
I should have been at the gym today.
He was teling the truth because he was very well paid for that opinion :-)
Was Obama there lifting his 5lb bells?
Bellends
Did the camera follow him offstage where he counted the money?
The pauperization of the US and the West continues and those phony job numbers do not change anything. The global income of ordinary peoples and demand for goods and commodities continue to collapse while the "real" inflation explodes. The capital flight from EM is a direct consequence of the global demand collapse and associated currency wars and China's decision to depeg and devaluate at least 30% to reach a par with other Asian currencies including yen in next 12-24 months.
Here is more about rampant "real" inflation reigning in the real economy that scares a shit out of banksters if FED was going to do something about it:
https://contrarianopinion.wordpress.com/economy-update/
As a leader, Obama has no peer... he has done more for his people than any leader in the last century. Too bad his people are radical islamists, marxists, illegals and homosexuals.
and drug addicts, alcoholics, entitlement parasites, and common criminals.
don't forget trannys
1% and bankers
" The Obama Legacy "
Houston Texas has apartments going up everywhere, and on every corner.
Huge bubble. This will not end well.
Same thing in Los Angeles. Start at Downtown and draw a 15 miles radius circle. What's coming down the pipeline is insanity. No lack of construction as long as banks still exist. This is '05 on steroids.
You should see Denver. Ho. Ly. Shit. I've lived here in Colorado since 1986 and I've never seen new residential construction like what's going on now. Prices for rent and homes are through the roof now too.
I live downtown Montreal...same shit here.
Condos, condos and condos...everywhere. Not to mention new highrise apartment/hotels. The vacancy rate is up around 5% and the job market is non-existant, except for waiter, dishwasher and low paying warehouse work...total bullshit and windowdressing this "housing boom".
NJ...they are building 1000 unit condos one after another...but no wants to move there...there are no new companies...people are fleeing...they buiild to make the numbers look good. IT IS A DISASTER
http://www.texasmonthly.com/the-daily-post/oils-price-drop-is-spreading-...
I saw Houston during the last severe oil recession. Downtown was a Ghost Town.
Gotta put the Syrian refugees somewhere....
Off topic but I have a burning question...my girlfriend has a B of A bank account...once a month they take 25 dollars out of her account but then they put it back in on same day...wtf?
Off topic but I have a burning question...my girlfriend has a B of A bank account...once a month they take 25 dollars out of her account but then they put it back in on same day...wtf?
US Bank does the same thing with my checking account, only its $19.95.
I think they are telling you what a valuable customer you are, that they are giving you money every month (the money they take out is a service fee, so that doesn't count)
Off topic but I have a burning question...my girlfriend has a US bank ccount...once a month they take 25 dollars out of her account but then they put it back in on same day...wtf?
Wow you aren't kidding about having a burning question
Lol seasmoke....gave u an up...using my tablet todày and it sucks...my apologies to all...
Nothing like some good chart porn on a Monday night.
Love the "you are here" lines. Makes me feel like I'm noticed.
Me 2. luv that chart eye candy.Especially with colors. Am I perverted?
ZH "you are here" graphs are notoriously wrong.
Except that lumber prices, like oil, are collapsing for reasons having nothing to do with US demand. And the retail collapse coincided with the Lehman collapse. Is it your claim that somehow retail jobs previewed a global bursting of real estate bubbles and credit default swap craziness?
Post hoc ergo propter hoc
Lumber prices...that's like from the Lumbar Yard on Seinfeld?
"You are here". Well, I guess I'll just stand in the middle and let those two lines go around me.
And just like the "You are here" on the maps at an unfamiliar mall, it's taking me longer than it should to figure out which way to go to get to where I want!
It's all here in plain sight - basement commodity prices, merger mania, tip top housing and equities, profits down, fraud job and GDP - and on and on.
Every flashing red light seen in 2007-08. I think those charts are spot on.
This is why I come to zerohedge! You guys are always right there with the relevant comparisons. Good job!
When you see a train coming, get off the fucking tracks.