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A Fifth Of Spain's GDP Just Voted To Secede - What Now?
Everywhere you look there are signs that Europe is coming apart at the seams. Just a month after the crisis in Greece abated, the influx of refugees fleeing the war-torn Mid-East finally overwhelmed the Balkans leading directly to border closures and precipitating a spat in Brussels regarding how best to handle the people flows.
In short, not everyone agrees with Angela Merkel’s open door policy and indeed, Hungary’s Viktor Orban has led the push for the preservation of what he calls Europe’s “Christian heritage” by keeping asylum seekers out. Now, there’s a serious rift developing and further efforts to force recalcitrant countries to accept migrants they don’t want could well spell the end of the Schengen project.
Meanwhile, Portugal is on the brink of a political crisis as Costa’s Socialists move to align with the Communists and the Left Bloc in an effort to overthrow the government and roll back austerity, presaging a debt showdown with Brussels and Berlin.
As if all of this weren’t enough - and we didn’t even mention the potential for “Brexit” - the Catalan black swan is back on the heels of what amounted to an independence referendum in September (see here).
On Monday, Catalonia’s parliament approved a “democratic disconnection” resolution which will see the region push to separate from Spain and establish an independent republic. Here’s WSJ with some color:
Catalonia’s parliament approved a resolution Monday to take steps to establish an independent republic, vowing it would begin ignoring Spanish institutions and setting up a potential standoff with the government in Madrid.
The proposal to commence a “democratic disconnection” passed by a vote of 72 to 63, after a two-hour debate. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who has said the separatist push represents Spain’s major challenge ahead of Dec. 20 national elections, pledged Monday to use all of the authority of his office to halt the secession bid.
Mr. Rajoy said his government would petition the Constitutional Court this week to have the resolution declared void.
Legal experts say the court will almost certainly bar Catalonia from taking any steps to put the resolution into effect, paving the way for a test of wills. The resolution singles out the Constitutional Court as being “delegitimized and without authority.”
The nine-point resolution calls on Catalonia’s parliament to start within 30 days to prepare laws to create independent social security and tax authorities. Pro-independence parties have said they hope to complete the separation process within 18 months.
And a bit more from The Guardian:
In September Rajoy’s government boosted the powers of the constitutional court to allow it to quickly suspend leaders who disobey its orders, in a move aimed directly at Catalonia.
The government has also raised the possibility of invoking article 155 of the Spanish constitution, which allows Madrid to supersede the authority of a regional government that is acting outside the law or to cut off its funding.
So yes, Catalonia is looking to officially secede from Spain in just a year and six months and the push comes less than two months ahead of national elections which very well could end up creating precisely the same type of political dynamic as that which is currently unfolding in Portugal. Back to WSJ:
For Mr. Rajoy, his response to the Catalan gambit could play a key role in determining whether he is able to stave off challenges from the rival Socialist Party, as well as two upstart parties, and win re-election.
“It’s a very delicate situation that requires a deft balance,” said Carlos Flores Juberías, a constitutional law professor and political analyst at the University of Valencia “He has to show firmness, but any action he takes must be surgically targeted” to avoid more people rallying around the separatist camp.
Worse still, if Catalonia were indeed to break away, it could very well end up costing Spain in the debt-to-GDP department. As DB noted before September's parliamentary elections, "the impact would be significant on the Spanish economy, [as] without an agreement to share the stock of debt with Catalonia, Spain’s’ projected public debt for 2015 would move from just above 100% of GDP to about 125% of GDP. And this accounts only for the mechanical impact. On 21 September Mas stated that if the central government refuses to negotiate, Catatonia might not pay back its liabilities to the central government."

In other words, it's possible that we could end up with a situation wherein the left gains more influence politically just as Catalan independence meaningfully increases Spain's debt-to-GDP ratio (don't forget, Catalonia accounts for nearly a fifth of Spanish output). Clearly, that's a recipe for a standoff with the troika which means that soon, Brussels could end up facing an austerity revolt not only Portugal, but from Spain as well. Underscoring the above is the fact that Podemos supports a referendum on Catalan independence. Here's The Guardian again:
Spain’s prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, who is preparing for a general election on 20 December, has the backing of the main opposition Socialists and the new centre-right party Ciudadanos.
Of Spain’s main parties at the national level, only the far-left Podemos has resisted Rajoy’s effort to forge a united front on the issue. While Podemos wants Catalonia to stay within Spain, it has also said it would support a referendum on the matter.
Here's Open Europe with three key question to consider as we enter "uncharted territory":
- First, the pro-independence front in the Catalan parliament is a very diverse one. Incumbent Catalan President Artur Mas and his moderate nationalist CDC party want Catalonia to become “a new nation in Europe”. That means leaving Spain, while remaining a member of the Eurozone and the EU. The radical left-wing CUP party – whose backing is key for the secessionist camp to hold an absolute majority in the regional parliament – wants Catalonia to leave Spain, the euro and the EU. Incidentally, the CUP is also opposed to Mas staying on as Catalan President. Doubts over the longevity of such an alliance are legitimate, and could become crystallised as the parties discuss issues such as the currency and institutions of a new Catalan state.
- Second, assuming that Catalonia unilaterally declares its independence (still a very big ‘if’ at this stage), other EU countries would be unlikely to recognise it as a state. The European Commission would likely also voice objections to Catalonia remaining in the euro and the EU, similar to its intervention in the Scottish referendum campaign. That would be the final nail in the coffin of the “new nation in Europe” project. Is Artur Mas really prepared for such a scenario? I doubt it – hence why I believe he still sees this ‘roadmap’ as a way to put pressure on the Spanish government to negotiate. Indeed, he needs to be careful heading down this path – as the situation could well spiral beyond his control (some might say it already has).
- Third, in the 27 September Catalan elections the pro-independence parties secured an absolute majority of seats in the regional parliament – but not an absolute majority of votes. This raises questions over the democratic legitimacy of this independence process. The reality is Artur Mas and his allies were looking for a ‘plebiscite’ in favour of secession – but this failed to materialise. Together, the three pro-independence parties won less than 48% of the vote. Is this enough to embark on a path to a unilateral independence declaration? Most certainly not. One has to wonder whether there will be a response from the 52% of the electorate who did not back such an approach.
In short, this is a big deal. You're talking about a scenario that would ultimately involve booting part of Spain from the common currency in the event of secession, leading to who only knows what kind of headaches for Catalans, but perhaps more importantly, there's the very real potential for social unrest here depending on how Rajoy handles the Catalonia "problem," and on that note, we'll close with a quote from Rajoy himself:
“Catalonia isn’t separating from anywhere."

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Now we party! Pass the blunt.
Welcome to the Hotel Catalonia
You can check out but never leave.
At least not without all your money and means of production.
There's a valley in Spain called Jarama
It's a place that we all know so well
It was there that we fought against the fascists
We saw a peaceful valley turn to hell
From this valley they say we are going
But don't hasten to bid us adieu
Even though we lost the battle at Jarama
We'll set this valley free before we're through
We were men of the Lincoln Battalion
We're proud of the fight that we made
We know that you people of the valley
Will remember our Lincoln Brigade
From this valley they say we are going
But don't hasten to bid us adieu
Even though we lost the battle at Jarama
We'll set this valley free before we're through
You will never find peace with these fascists
You will never find friends such as we
So remember that valley of Jarama
And the people that'll set that valley free
From this valley they say that we are going
But don't hasten to bid us adieu
Even though we lost the battle at Jarama
We'll set this valley free before we're through
All this world is like this valley called Jarama
So green and so bright and so fair
No fascists can dwell in our valley
Nor breathe in our new freedom's air
From this valley they say we are going
But don't hasten to bid us adieu
Even though we lost the battle at Jarama
We'll set this valley free before we're through
I seriously hope Vlad arms the Catalonians to the teeth.
hey Texas you watchin' Catalonia ?
The Catalonians are a distinct ethnic group within Spain, and most hate the federal government with a passion. Should the Euro fall apart, they will leave unless the federales use military force. Then it will get really ugly.
Mel Brooks understood things... https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=77sPKCc4SS0#t=164
“Catalonia isn’t separating from anywhere."
That sounds like a threat to me. If the Catalonians are serious they had better start arming themselves and forming militias.
Second Point from the Falange Espanola - 1937
2. Spain has a single destiny in the world. Every conspiracy against this common unity is repulsive. Any kind of separatism is a crime which we shall not pardon. The existing Constitution, to the degree that it encourages disintegration, weakens this common destiny of Spain. Therefore we demand its annulment in a thundering voice.
The government has also raised the possibility of invoking article 155 of the Spanish constitution
No one expects the Spanish constitution.
The government has also raised the possibility of invoking article 155 of the Spanish constitution, which allows Madrid to supersede the authority of a regional government that is acting outside the law or to cut off its funding
Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Catalonia vying for independence precisely because they're sending more Munny to Madrid than they're receiving in services.
Oh no! NOT the Spanish Constitution!!! Anything but the Spanish Constitution!!! Pthbbbbbppp!
Let's see... a war between Spain and Catalonia... would be paid for byyy.... ummmm.... with ummmmm......
Yoo hoooo! VLADimere! It's the phone and your cousin Cat is on the line.
And while our attention is on Catalonia... what are the Basques doing? I seem to recall an independence movement up there a while ago...
If they separate to form another CB/EU colony it was all for nothing.
This may be your finest comment to date.
Thank-you. All of Europe and now most of North America is steeped in the "money for nothing" socialist ideology. There's little hope that Catalonia, Scotland, Quebec would achieve any sort of real "independence" outside the global financial system. Just look at Greece and their bonhead electorate, Tsipras entire mandate was anti-austerity and he folded immediately, still got re-elected.
It will have to come down to the individual. Who is John Galt?
It will have to come down to the individual. Who is Billy the Poet?
It will come to the individual, but not until after we have experienced true tyranny. The State will do anything to remain in power and to expand/consolidate that power. Joe sixpack is not paying attention....yet.
He's a Nothing-Head!
I don't know much about Spain's makeup, but if that region is a large net contributor to the govt, you are right, it could get ugly. If a socialist govt like what's occurring in Portugal were to gain power they will not let such a huge chunk of tax serfs leave like that. It really could be bloody. They will destroy the cash cow during their attempts to keep them a part of Spain, but socialists never cared about that in the past. If the socialists can't have their productive capacity under their control, there is no reason for then to allow it to exist.
Catalonia has only 16% of Spain's population, but accounts for 20% of its GDP and only gets 11% of the national expendetures. Bloody, indeed. The Spanish federal government (like ours in the U.S.) is a parasite. A self-perpetuating and continuously expanding parasite, but a parasite nonetheless. Just the issue of how much national debt Catalonians would take with them is enough for a war.
Spain's debt-to-GDP is about 100%. If Catalonians left, Spain would suddenly lose 20% of its tax revenue, pushing its debt-to-GDP to 125%.
Does Catalonia take 11% of Spain's debt? That's all Spain has bothered spending on them. 16% to match the population of Catalonia? Why should underfunded, hard-working Catalonians have to owe more than anyone else in Spain? 20%? What would justify Catalonians having to take more of the national debt now if they've been contributing more than their fair share all along and only see half of that ever come back to Catalonia?
Interesting for Catalonians - if they left Spain and didn't change federal tax laws, their reginal share of federal taxes would double, i.e., their former 20% contribution would yield 20% return. In practice, it never works out like that, but imagine what effect that would have.
I love the whole Catalonian succession movement (same as Texas). Federal governments need to be humbled and act like they feel a little guilt for being such a huge parasite on their populations. I don't expect them to disappear, I just want them to stop acting like they are entitled to their host's blood and sweat.
LOL Whre dou you get that data from?
No army, no soverreignty. End of farce.
Secessions, as anexations, are always an outcome of a war, or the treat of war.
First are the borders, then politics. That's reality.
To claim independence to get rid of taxes is simple bullshit.
Youre dreming, don't you?
We are watching and taking notes.
www.yescalifornia.org
California IS ready for Catalunya.
Califòrnia està a punt per a catalunyaTake N.Y. city and Washington D.C. with you, and you've got a deal...
They can have DEEEEtroit and Chicargo too!
Man lets do this & leave the obunga degenerate dependents to fend for themselves
That would be some funny shit. It's unfortunate though that even if they create a seperate country it will still be another quasi socialist government in charge that will probably turn around and ban guns no matter what.
I really hope they get what they want. Hopefully this will help bring down the euro and finally free the European people from the ECB. Even of the bank of Spain took all gold out of that region, if they reject Spanish debt they will still be better off. They can buy more gold. Hell, maybe while they are creating their own gold reserves they can finally force comex to default too. Crush the euro and the comex in one move, a win win.
Obviously that's far fetched, but one can dream right?
Haus-Targaryen: "I seriously hope Vlad arms the Catalonians to the teeth."
oh, and Washington would love to match him in a wonderful armament race, if he would do that
Where you raised by the MIC, I wonder? Such wonderfully martial ideas, full of beans about other people shedding blood, other people having civil wars
whatever, as long as violence reigns. and if there is not enough violence, bomb them until they fight moar
truly, I can't understand you. If it's war you are looking for, just ask, I can arrange transportation for Syria, as well as equipment
He's probably thinking more along the lines of Sweden before and during WWII. They armed themselves as much as they could in order to stay OUT of the fighting.
Europeans have been protected by Uncle Sam for so long they no longer understand that deterence means actually having to act to deter. They think safety from foreign invaders just falls from the sky like skittles form a unicorn's ass.
finally a bit sense in the ZH narrative:
"Incumbent Catalan President Artur Mas and his moderate nationalist CDC party want Catalonia to become “a new nation in Europe”. That means leaving Spain, while remaining a member of the Eurozone and the EU. The radical left-wing CUP party – whose backing is key for the secessionist camp to hold an absolute majority in the regional parliament – wants Catalonia to leave Spain, the euro and the EU. Incidentally, the CUP is also opposed to Mas staying on as Catalan President. Doubts over the longevity of such an alliance are legitimate, and could become crystallised as the parties discuss issues such as the currency and institutions of a new Catalan state. "
The problem with the Spanish Civil War is that the "fascists" were improbably enough the good guys. The other side (communists) were even more awful. They called themselves "republicans" but that was just window dressing. Fighting for the "republicans" is what turned Orwell against Communism. He learned the hard way, taking a bullet to the throat for his folly.
In a previous life I occasionally did business with the Spanish. A very, very strange people to do business with. I got the feeling the country never really recovered from 1936.
Good guys?
In a civil war?
Can we just agree that the Spanish have had little trouble killing each other, historically, and dragging in people from other nations?
I consider anyone fighting for their own freedom or anyone trying to rid themselves of a repressive government the good guys. That said, I certainly wouldn't fight for either side in this. But it is funny and scary how governments deem themselves to be all controlling over everyone, and most people just go along with it. "Of course the government can do that, they are the government, they can do anything they want" is pretty much how most people think, even though it's a fictitious entity run by other easily corruptable men.
I agree.
When is the last time you can recall that being successful?
Based on an increasing tide of tyranny, coupled with increasingly grim socio-economic conditions, I expect we'll see a wave of revolution, both successful and unsuccessful. Spain last did this in 1936. The 'good guys' lost, but the 'bad guys' got a little help from a fellow by the name of Schickelgruber. Russia and Italy supported the 'good guys'. Same as it ever was . . . at least the world got Picasso's 'Guernica' out of the deal, plus a taste of modern military tactics on the eve of WW2. Hurry up, please, it's time.
Tunisia 2013.
This just in from Spain. Generalisimo Francisco Franco is still dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=butZyxI-PRs
And now the villages are empty.
The world is slightly more complex then you imagine.
It turns out the organically Carlist ( Feudal) faction was correct. After all.
The progressives ( some nice but naive People) were deceived.
And now th villages are empty.
The world is slightly more complex then your portrait.
Some nice but naive progressives (I am thinking of my own Frank o Conner) were wrong in the end.
The original Carlist forces of the early 19th century have been proven correct.
Nobody wants to be the last rat off a sinking ship.
They're gonna need militias. That means they need a Second Amendment.
Too bad they decided to separate as a socialist state. Doomed from the start.
Catatonia?
What happens next? The same thing that happened in Scotland...., a lot of hyperbolic talk and then nothing. The bankers win again.
I assume the older generation will be scared into voting "no" to keep everything that was promised to them (despite what that means to their kids and grandkids)?
The vote last September was 48%. Every day, more old Catalonians die and even more young people reach voting age. Plenty of the ones approaching retirement know they're fucked - just like the growing number of near-retirees here in the U.S. who know the Social Security system is collapsing. The newest of Catalonians older generation have a lot more to gain (or at least retain) by succession. Catalonia could continue to pay pensions for decades longer than Spain if they kept the taxes that are now consumed at the Spanish national level.
As it is, Spain has another five years - tops - before it's bankrupt. How much will the Spanish government have to spend on anything in five years when it's debt-to-GDP ratio hits 200% and interests rates double? It will be Greece - they will have to borrow money just to make interest payments and public services will collapse.
The only thing Catalonia would have to worry about is how quickly they could build a 20-meter wall around their region to keep the other Spaniards out when that Ponzi explodes.
Perhaps not. The scots are a different genetic makeup than the hot tempered Spanish.
See here for an example
Even if they did secede, the bankers would still win. The masses would be more concerned with FC Barcelona being kicked out of La Liga than the new Catalan government inviting in Goldman as their new economic "advisors".
Last time Catalonia tried to suceed was in the 1930's which started a civil war that ended in fascist control.
so, right on track then?
secede not suceed, just fyi
Won't let them go, just like Scotland, not part of the plan. They want only "some" countries split up for better control, e.g. Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, Syria etc....
There is no such thing as 'Europe.'
'europe' is what a global corporate and banking elite impose on Europeans to steal from them more efficiently while destroying their cultural heritage.
http://rehmat1.com/2014/11/10/jewish-lobby-opposes-catalonias-statehood/
And that's all it is.
The EU countries are becoming like cats. It's becoming increasingly difficult to herd them.
All I can hear is the shooting , screaming and blood shed. happens every time.
The problem with revolutions is they never get the correct targets... Let me make it easy.
Centralbahnplatz 2
4051 Basel
Switzerland
You missed the target...
Centralbahnplatz 2, 4002 Basel, SwitzerlandLocation vs postal address? Seriously?
The target is not that hard to miss.
You are free to vote. But your vote does not matter.
Forward - to more democracy
the question is will Barcelona be allowed to play in La Liga or not
No. And that is a HUGE factor for the 'No' camp. FC Barcelona playing in a Catalan league will rapidly decline to 2nd tier level.
If you wanted to start a civil war to tear apart the EU, I couldn't think of a better way to do it than to inject a bunch of Muslims throughout Europe.
-Argenta
That does bring up an interesting point. The same people who want to leave the EU or the Spanish separatists are also typically the same people who are against all the third worlders entering their country. This open border nonsense could backfire on the Eurocrats by driving more people into the 'leave the euro' camp.
If they end up pushing the nationalists in those countries too far, it is not going to end well for the bearded ones, that's for sure.
shhhhh, quiet!
Now go stand in the corner until you can act your age! Kids - what do they know?!?
The Catalans are euro boys, they do not believe in real independence.
They don't want independence, they want financial independence to stop the money flows to the rest of Spain.
Cosmopolitan areas need the flow of real rather then money resources into its center.
It could be argued that barcelona no longer needs Spain's real resources and can now relay entirely on sea and airborne commerce but that is self interest on their part.
I once got drunk in Barcelona with a Galician (Celt) - he gave me a better perspective on what really goes on in Spain.
He had a visceral hatred for Barcelona.
mo
Will Obama send American troops and fighter jets to Spain?
Do mean send 30,000 armed "advisers?"
to help secure democracy for the oppressed - yes
On 21 September Mas stated that if the central government refuses to negotiate, Catatonia might not pay back its liabilities to the central government."
Lovely. That will teach them. The central fascist gvmnt has already stolen too much.
What's cooking in Basque county these days? Haven't heard from them in 10 years.
Oh the events in Cat will give them ideas.
The Basques always had those ideas. Outside of a few borrowed words, they don't even speak a language remotely related to the Indo-European ancestor of the Euro-Asian landmass languages. It seems the best guess is that it's a last remnant of a Paleolithic language.
Pretty old school stuff.
Even the Romans didn't want to screw with them. These were some hardcore hillbillies.
Send in the peacefull negotiators!
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/10/26/article-0-0B1FCAD3000005DC-484...
Fire up the gulags. Fire up the extermination camps.
It's party time!!!!
At one time European states were loose feudal arrangements with a weak King
This changed with the treaty of westphalia and the creation of banking states but Spain was late to this party, remaining feudal (under equity rather then debt Control) until the early part of the 19 th century.
Catalans! Please don't join the EU.
civil war - that's what's next
At least the catalans have some bollocks. Unlike the sheep which inhabit Scotland.
Distinct ethnic group???? smfh
Ah, and now we will get to see the bony visage of fascist Spain re-emerge from it's conveniently ignored and forgotten past. Will look great on TV when the US and EU are supporting those peaceful humanitarians in Madrid in putting down the Catalonian "terrorists".
When the West is on your side, you are "rebels" and "freedom fighters". When they aren't, you are just "terrorists".
Prepare accordingly, Catalonia.
While Madrid is at it they can liberate the Andorrans too. The last batch of Fascists got a little too nervous up in the mountain passes to get the job done the last time.
calling all criminal fedsters, we need another 100 trillion of air money please!
"The nine-point resolution calls on Catalonia’s parliament to start within 30 days to prepare laws to create independent social security and tax authorities. Pro-independence parties have said they hope to complete the separation process within 18 months."
I find it ironic that the first order of business for the so-called "pro-independence" movement is to "create social security and tax authorities". Doesn't sound very "independent" to my way of thinking. Europeans (especially continentals) are even more thoroughly captured by cult-statism than Murckins (if that is possible).
Before the Spanish Civil War and under Franco the trains indeed ran on time - but dissent was brutally punished (Assad anyone?). The so-called "Republican" liberators in 1936 were really just a competing form of statist tyranny under a different name.
Now if the movement was a general strike to abolish the corrupt "social security and tax authorities" - THAT would be something worth celebrating.
People fist need to understand the first principle of Austerity.
Austerity is a rationing process.
The surplus energy is then transfered to the consumer war economy where it is vented
Barcelona depends on the cheap Kerosene that this rationing creates.
The european projects goals is to destroy national exchange very much like how modern banking states destroyed and absorbed local cultures previously (16th to 20th century)
cal
Ill be very surprised if any of this comes to pass. Madrid will do the same thing London did when threatened with Scottish Independence. It will divide and conquer the populace and use fear to get them to acquiesce. Real independence would require a Civil War and I dont think there is enough pro-nationalism anywhere in Europe to start a civil war, yet anyway. Who knows though maybe the Catalonians are ahead of the curve.
Wake up and smell the coffee Rajoy.
Enough people have rumbled you now to cause you sleepless nights, a lot of sleepless nights.
Power to your elbows Catalunia, sock it to the Euro scamsters.
Ask yourself this question?
Would the nice but naive Frank O Conner hold the same progressive views if he saw what both Ireland and Spain has become
I doubt it.
Describing wonderful local relationships while at the same time fighting for internationalism was a mugs game.
The Catalonians have been in Spain since the country's beginning. They are also Christian and have still not assimilated. The Hubris of Germany and Sweden to think they can assimilate middle eastern muslims into their countries is stunning. Reminds me of the U.S. taking over from France in Vietnam war and believing we were so superior we would win the hearts and minds of the people and create a democracy. We didn't even learn from that failure.
They had referendum just while ago and they lost, people voted to stay. This corrupted criminal should face jail.
whats the point in splitting spain if it stays part of eu?
the lie of an idea of having your own country
devide and conquer
Now, nothing. It's just a show.
Wake me up when an army of hpsters try to get control of the police and military facilities, airports, ports...