This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Paul Craig Roberts Rages At "Another Phony Jobs Number"
Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday that the US economy created 271,000 jobs in October, a number substantially in excess of the expected 175,000 to 190,000 jobs. The unexpected job gain has dropped the unemployment rate to 5 percent. These two numbers will be the focus of the financial media presstitutes.
What is wrong with these numbers? Just about everything.
First of all, 145,000 of the jobs, or 54%, are jobs arbitrarily added to the number by the birth-death model. The birth-death model provides an estimate of the net amount of unreported jobs lost to business closings and the unreported jobs created by new business openings. The model is based on a normally functioning economy unlike the one of the past seven years and thus overestimates the number of jobs from new business and underestimates the losses from closures. If we eliminate the birth-death model’s contribution, new jobs were 126,000.
Next, consider who got the 271,000 reported jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, all of the new jobs plus some—378,000—went to those 55 years of age and older. However, males in the prime working age, 25 to 54 years of age, lost 119,000 jobs. What seems to have happened is that full time jobs were replaced with part time jobs for retirees. Multiple job holders increased by 109,000 in October, an indication that people who lost full time jobs had to take two or more part time jobs in order to make ends meet.
Now assume the 271,000 reported jobs in October is the real number, and not 126,000 or less, where are those jobs? According to the BLS not a single one is in manufacturing. The jobs are in personal services, mainly lowly paid jobs such as retail clerks, ambulatory health care service jobs, temporary help, and waitresses and bartenders.
For example, the BLS reports 44,000 new retail trade jobs, a questionable number in light of sluggish real retail sales. Possibly what is happening is that stores are turning a smaller number of full time jobs into a larger number of part time jobs in order to avoid benefit costs associated with full time workers.
The new reported jobs are essentially Third World type of jobs that do not produce sufficient income to form a household and do not produce exportable goods and services to help to bring down the large US trade deficit resulting from jobs offshoring.
The problem with the 5% unemployment rate is that it does not include any discouraged workers. When discouraged workers—those who have ceased looking for a job because there are no jobs to be found—are included the unemployment rate is about 23%.
Another problem with the 5% number is that it suggests full employment. Yet the labor force participation rate remains at a low point. Normally during a real economic recovery, people enter the labor force and the participation rate rises.
The bullion banks acting as agents of the Federal Reserve used the phony jobs number to launch another attack on gold and silver bullion, dumping uncovered shorts into the futures market. The strong jobs number provides cover for the naked shorts, because it implies an interest rate hike and movement out of bullion into interest bearing assets.
If the US economy were actually in economic recovery, would half of the 25-year-old population be living with parents? The real job situation is so poor that young people are unable to form households.
»
- 295 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
And yet so many of the hipster younger people want to continue with the same policies that have gotten us into this situation. They have yet to learn.
Additionally, are they buying American goods (not just phony foreign made 'American' brands) that would rebuild the decimated manufacturing sectors? They, and we, are cutting our own throats.
Gee Wally.....they wouldn't lie to us would they?
No Beave .....they're the Govi
Shut up, close your eyes, click your heels and just believe. The wizards of BLS have spoken
And Roberts is leaving this out, which is three-year-old data:
If we assume a smoothed noninstitutional civilian population growth rate of 0.076% per month, then next month's population growth would be 185,617 additional people ages 16 and over.
http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/how-many-jobs-are-needed-keep-po...
Paul, word to the wise...give it up. No one is listening. Retire in peace, nothign is going to change.
Hitlery, word to the wise...give up ZH. No one likes defeatists other than their overlords. Retreat in shame; nothing is going to change until it all does.
"Additionally, are they buying American goods (not just phony foreign made 'American' brands) that would rebuild the decimated manufacturing sectors? They, and we, are cutting our own throats."
What American made goods are available to buy? From what I've seen, there are no American made products any longer, the manufacturers all got put out of business by cheap Chinese imports.
OK...How about...After spending some minor effort - remember that? "Effort?" - I found a place in Kentucky that makes men's underwear - tighty whiteys and undershirts - a while back I bought some. Its about time to buy more, which I will do. They seem to be the same or very similar in price to those that are name brand and imported.
I've often thought some of the most effective charity would be simply buying goods like this and simply giving them away. This way you support working people, and then if you give the product away someone gets (hopefully they need the goods) the goods at no charge, and you undermine those that are importing foreign goods. win/win/win
Next I'm looking at some Allen-Edmond shoes. And maybe the one or two models of New Balance shoes that are made in the USA.
Jeans are of interest, too. I would love it if an American Car company offered what I wanted in a car and it had very high American parts content - like the Toyota Camry does - at one point - perhaps still - the car with the highest American-made content.
There's lots of stuff out there.
and which, of the political dogs running, offer any out of the box solutions to this conundrum?
They aren't the solution. They never are. The never will be. Individuals have to opt for what helps them as individuals. The more they do the better the aggregate (not the 'collective') or average will be.
The young people are indifferent about outsourcing of their jobs to places like India and China.
Just want to live off the government tit.
You don't mind being lied to?? Then we have a gift for you! Re-enserfment.
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/11/09/the-re-enserfment-of-western-...
Yep, it's all phony, now shut up and enjoy a cookie.
Women's lib wasn't about liberation of women, it was about providing another tax to the FED and allowing their children to be educated by the state. See how it works? Same as the ACA (afordable health care act). Now what's affordable. Thank you Mr. Paul Craig Roberts
As long as the state can afford to give them their handouts, all is fine.
$20 Trillion of debt points to all is not fine
As long as the state can steal from future generations to give them their handouts, all is fine.
There, fixed that for ya.
As long as......
5% unemployment VS 23% unemployment.
What Matter Does it Really Make?!!!!!
Bad data leads to bad decisions. Purposely manipulated data leads to concurrence with pre-manufactured conclusions....
Routinely find myself stuffing the tip jar at my already overpriced Starbucks. Why, you wonder? Because I recognize the bright, articulate, educated twenty-something crowd working there in lieu of finding the better employment commensurate with their degrees and character.
As a tail end genXer, this disturbs me beyond description.
"in lieu of finding the better employment commensurate with their degrees and character."
Those gender study degrees will be valuable in our brave new world...one of these days.....
Yeah Dougtwat stop supporting corporate Starcucks , are n,t there any local independant coffee shops in your area to support ?
I need a safe space. This essay is rife with microaggressions.
Who could ever imagine that a government that actively supports terrorists in order to justify spending hundreds of billions fighting 'terror' would fudge their data?
The economic map has never been the territory of the real economy.
Starbucks offers a safe place for any LGBBTQQIAAP who "feel unsafe." As a leading member of the LGBBTQQIAAP community, I commend the remarkble work Howard Schultz is doing at Starbucks!
As long as the younger people are in "safe places" and not having to deal with "micro-aggression" they're just fine. You just have to have your priorities, right?
Micro-Aggression?
Is that when an angry midget punches you in the shin?
What happens to the youth, the special snowflakes we've been rasing, when the fit hits the shan? They crumple in the relatively simple world of college when things get hard, when mommy's not there to give them the answers to homework - what happens when the family home isn't an option, when benefits isn't really cutting it? Who you gonna call, snowflake?
Hey, I tried hiring my fair share of young people at excellent wages. When they did show up for work on time (about 75% of the time) a fair number of them stole significant amounts of company property or botched simple tasks so badly (like measuring stuff with a simple ruler) as to cost me tens of thousands of dollars.
Government educated too. Even a college grad from a state university (Vermont) who could barely read and write on a sixth grade level.
A good percentage of people are basically unemployable. The very scary thing is that these people vote - and there are millions of them. Guess which way they are voting...
I can sense the authenticity in your words. Maybe I'll quit stuffing the tip jars now.
You're on EBT and disability, have never owned a business. Am I right?
You can say the same thing about "business owners" and "business leaders" in America today - lazy, sociopathic, scum. Believe me - I worked for Microsoft for a while, Redmond,WA, is one giant festering sore of sociopathic "leaders".
So yeah - employees suck.
(guess what - the managers and leaders and "hiring managers" suck more)
Was at dell for 10 years and hp for 8. I concur
As long as the millennials have the latest and greatest Video Game and Idope everything else is meaningless.
Its really not worth fighting for really.
Did you have to start with reality first thing in the morning?
BLS = Enron.
Did you have to start with reality first thing in the morning?
The United States of America needs Syrian refugees to wipe their collective butts in old age. Mexican wetbacks don't have Donald Trump's confidence to do the job right. And if the younger generations of Americans don't develop a good work ethic Trump will fire them en masse and then the greed generation will have to buy robots from Japan.
I can just hear Donald Trump screaming in horror at the prospect of a couple of cold stainless steel robot hands fixing him up.
"I've fallen and I can't get up." Donald Trump
"Its fallen and I can't get it up." Bill Clinton after he looks a Hillary
slo mo implo.
I like to imagine just how much money could be made if there were no government regulations
but cops busting kids with Lemonade stands sums it all up now adays
I think its easy to say those off the gov tit are a burden to the future generation as if they like where they are. If real jobs do not exist and thats obvious from looking at home buying to industrial equipment sales then what is the alternative? EBT is no grand amount and I would prefer to give them food than to make them criminals.
The money spent on these middle east actions is a greater waste of money than anything. So as we go broke who is to blame the few millions on domestic handout or trillions for these wars to nowhere.
There's no need to work. Janet can just print some spending money. The more Janet gives away, the better the unemployment numbers.
That giant sucking sound? Its the government.
The U3 rate works good on the up slope of the participation rate, but is not accurate at all on the down slope because workers are removed from the "work force" its B.S. This is very controversial seeing that in reality everyone of working age should have a job for income.
When I first heard the jobs number, I knew it was phony as hell! Thanks Paul Craig Roberts for expaling why.
The douchebag on Family Guy said it best...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToQVoyWWluQ
Mr Roberts is clearly not drinking the Koolaid, nor wearing the rose colored glasses.
Both of those, some SOMA, and a crash course in Newspeak and he'll see the glorious recovery!