The Refugee Crisis Risks Straining Europe To The Point Of Military Conflict

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

German Chancellor Angela Merkel needs to do something, urgently, that should have been done months - if not more - ago. There has to be a UN emergency summit on the European refugee crisis, it has to involve leaders at the very highest levels, and it has to take place within weeks at the latest. Or else.

Of course any leader could call for the summit, and if Merkel waits too long -as she is wont to do- someone else should. But she is the best person for the job. No-one else who leads an entire continent looks ready to take this on, and moreover it’s her own country that quite possibly faces the gravest consequences of the crisis.

That is to say, for now Germany still comes in way after Greece in that regard, but if Alexis Tsipras would attempt to call such a summit, his appeal would fall on deaf ears, and at best lead to lots of international Merkel-style diddling (or ‘Merkeln’, as the Germans put it). And there’s already been far too much of that.

The renewed urgency comes from a number of directions.

First, the continuing drownings of refugees in the Aegean sea. The lack of urgency with which those drownings have been met has become a huge and immediate threat to Merkel, if only because the entire European project has already died with the babies washing up on the shores of Greece.

Even if it will take a long time for people to recognize that, given the ideological ‘union’ blindness that pervades Brussels and European capitals. Angela’s legacy risks being not only her responsibility for thousands of deaths, but also the very demise of the EU. And that’s just for starters.

Secondly, It was Merkel herself last week who warned of renewed military conflicts in the Balkans if the approach to the refugee crisis wouldn’t change, and rapidly.

According to Merkel, if Balkan countries -continue to- build fences and razor wire barriers at their borders, one after the other, some countries risk ‘getting stuck’ with huge numbers of refugees on their territories that they are not in the least prepared for. Which makes Friday’s German announcement, mere days after Merkel’s warning, all the more ominous:

Germany Imposes Surprise Curbs On Syrian Refugees

Angela Merkel has performed an abrupt U-turn on her open-door policy towards people fleeing Syria’s civil war, with Berlin announcing that the hundreds of thousands of Syrians entering Germany would not be granted asylum or refugee status. Syrians would still be allowed to enter Germany, but only for one year and with “subsidiary protection” which limits their rights as refugees. Family members would be barred from joining them.


[..] the interior minister, Thomas de Maiziere, announced that Berlin was starting to fall into line with governments elsewhere in the EU, who were either erecting barriers to the newcomers or acting as transit countries and limiting their own intake of refugees.


[..] the suddenness of the move by the country that has been pivotal in the EU’s biggest ever immigration crisis will ripple across the region with unknown consequences, particularly in the transit countries of the Balkans and central Europe through which hundreds of thousands have been trekking towards Germany.


The German curbs will encourage these countries to establish barriers of their own to the refugee wave. Merkel is also pressing countries such as Croatia, Slovenia, and Serbia to establish “reception centres” or camps where refugees can be processed and screened before they reach Germany. The countries are resisting because no one knows what to do with those who are screened and do not pass muster for passage to Germany.

Around the same time that Germany pressures Balkan countries to establish ‘reception centers’, it votes down plans for ‘transit zones’ on its own territory. Some are more equal than others? Berlin had better beware.

The third ‘urgency’, curiously downplayed by media and politics, comes in the shape of a warning by the EU itself, albeit “buried in a 204-page report on the future of the European economy”.

European Union Predicts 3 Million More Refugees By End Of Next Year

The European Union predicted Thursday that up to 3 million additional asylum seekers could enter the 28-member bloc by the end of next year, suggesting the staggering pace of new arrivals in recent months shows no sign of abating. The forecast, buried in a 204-page report on the future of the European economy..

The EU expects 3 million refugees in 2016. This year, there will be ‘only’ 1 million. Of which resettlement deals have been made for 160,000, and at last count 116 have actually been resettled. Somebody better start taking this serious, or it will get very terribly out of hand. And that’s not to say it hasn’t already, with well over 3000 refugees having drowned in the Mediterranean, hundreds of them children.

This is a humanitarian disaster that nobody’s willing to recognize as one, and that is exactly what has to stop. The reason why this prediction is hushed up across the board is of course obvious: the 1 million refugees in 2015 have already strained resources, international relationships and indeed entire governments to such an extent, wars could start just because of that.

Add another 3 million, and the chances of a peaceful 2016 in Europe grow terribly slim. But not talking about it will of course slim down those chances further. And even if the total of 4 million refugees expected by the end of next year will be less than 1% of the EU’s 500 million population, someone better do something fast, or else.

The fact that Europe risks being strained to the point of military conflict, and there’s precious little reason to doubt Angela Merkel’s assessment of the situation, means that what needs to be done is to make the entire world aware that this is a global issue, not a regional one. And that’s where the UN emergency summit comes in.

Obviously, Germany is overwhelmed right now. But doing a U-turn on the open-door policy is not going to solve that problem. It will merely shift it, either within Germany itself, or towards the Balkan countries the refugees travel through to come to the Bundesrepublik.

Decision making by the EU Brussels has failed shamefully. And not only on the refugee crisis. But since Merkel is the no. 1 voice of power in Europe, that puts the shame on her as well. As we’ve said before, the only way to handle an issue such as this, is to put the people first.

You can’t let the people, the children, drown at random and expect to come away with your positions intact. And just because international politics these days focuses a lot on trying to deflect responsibilities by pointing to others, and to international bodies, blood on one’s hands doesn’t wash off easily, and in the end not at all.

Blaming the refugees themselves, as the head of EU border agency Frontex attempted once again by labeling them  , is as useless as it is disgraceful. People fleeing war zones to save their lives are not ‘illegals’.

Blaming the ‘smugglers’, an even more popular EU pastime, makes no sense either. If the smugglers were Europe’s biggest concern, it would grant safe passage to refugees. That would stop ‘smuggling’ in one fell swoop. But it would demand a level of political courage that nobody, not Merkel either, possesses.

What drives policies across the board still comes down to the prevailing wish, fed to European populations by media and politics, to keep things as they are. To maybe invite the token refugee, but to prevent sudden or large changes in the society people happen to live in.

And while that may be understandable, it doesn’t mean it’s always realistic. Sometimes change is inevitable. We may find it easier to accept that when it comes to earthquakes and hurricanes than in the case of mass migrations, but all of these are regular occurrences throughout history. In the end, all we can do is make the best of it, in the most humane way we know of, or descend into mayhem.

One more thing that needs repeating time and again though politicians won’t like it: Europe’s leadership knew the refugee problem was coming. Angela Merkel was warned by her Bundespolizei at least eight months ago, but there were warnings even way before that. Everyone just chose to ignore them.

Refugee Crisis Was Not Unexpected, Top UN Official Says

Director-General of the United Nations office in Geneva, Denmark’s Michael Moller: [..] “The crisis we have today, we knew it was going to happen. The leaders of Europe were told it was going to happen at least two years ago.”


[..] there will be even greater problems, unless we sit down globally and figure out structures and ways to deal with this in the future. Not to reinvent the wheel every time that happens, but to rethink completely and strengthen the humanitarian system, because I guarantee you that it will happen again.

Moller say the same thing I do: “we need to sit down globally”. He doesn’t provide a timeframe, but between the lines it’s clear he doesn’t think either that there’s time to waste. A UN emergency summit may be all that stands between us and ‘anarchy’, in one way and shape or the other.

This summit must include the presidents and prime ministers of all major nations (and please leave out the EU). Obama, Putin, Xi Jinping and Merkel, but also the leaders of Greece, Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon (where the majority of Syrian refugees are) and all Balkan countries. Countries like Canada, Brazil and Australia can and must be called upon to grant asylum to many more refugees than they do now.

In this week’s issue of the New Yorker, George Packer describes how America took in more than a million refugees from South East Asia in one year 35 years ago, and how it can and should make such an effort once more:

America’s Apathy About The Syrian Refugees

[..].. the U.S. has accepted fewer than two thousand Syrians. In September, President Obama announced an increase in the quota for the coming year to ten thousand. That figure represents just half the monthly total of Indochinese refugees brought here in 1980. One refugee advocate called it “an embarrassingly low number.” And yet even this humble goal is unlikely to be reached.

The world has a narrow window left to prevent an already grave humanitarian disaster into something much worse, to prevent antagonism and military action that will set loose the evil genies of the Pandora’s box that is Europe’s past, once again, and genies of surrounding regions too. There is no need for that. Not yet.

The world, united in such a summit, must also look beyond the refugee crisis, and, as the UN’s Moller says, “rethink completely and strengthen the humanitarian system”. Because there are other dangers on the horizon, potentially much worse. Climate refugees are an obvious one, but even more, there’s the economic downturn nobody seems to be willing to acknowledge (at their own peril).

As I wrote a week ago, in an article quoted by Zero Hedge on Wednesday in their piece on German opposition parties warning of a domestic civil war:

Europe Will Never Be The Same; Neither Will The World

Ignorance and denial threatens to lead to a needless increase in nationalism, fascism, violence, misery, death and warfare. If we were to acknowledge that the change is inevitable, and prepare ourselves accordingly, much of this could be avoided.


There are two main engines of change that have started to transform the Europe we think we know. First, a mass migration spearheaded by the flight of refugees from regions in the world which Europeans have actively helped descend into lethal chaos. Second, an economic downturn the likes of which hasn’t been seen in 80 years or so (think Kondratieff cycle).


Negative ideas about refugees are already shaping everyday opinion and politics in many places, and this will be greatly exacerbated by the enormous economic depression that for now remains largely hidden behind desperate sleight-of-hands enacted by central bankers, politicians and media.

There are fine theories around coming from fine people, on how refugees can benefit a host country’s economic systems. But they are the kind of people who are perpetually looking at economic growth. And no such growth is guaranteed – to put it awfully mildly.

Therefore, it doesn’t really matter to the issue if refugees do or do not contribute ‘positively’ to a country’s economics, because all countries are facing a giant slowdown and depression caused by an inevitable debt deflation. And that makes it all the more urgent for people, and societies, to be prepared for all possible outcomes, including worst case scenarios.

The depression is guaranteed, and so are millions more people fleeing the ruins that were ones their homes, and their hopes for a decent future for their children.

Every day that Merkel loses in calling this highest-level, highest-urgency, UN summit, is a day that more people will drown. And that means one more day that we all will lose more of our own humanity, and of our claims for others to show us theirs.

In our own way, we’re all already drowning and washing up devoid of life, and of human values, somewhere on a cold and lonely distant beach.

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Grandad Grumps's picture

Military conflict? Between who and whome? Who is going to aim a gun at whome and why?

Are they going to shoot the refugees? Seems like an elitist thing to do.

kliguy38's picture

Its time to rally round the flag boyz ....rally round the flag.........da da da da da da.......

Manthong's picture

Just maybe that was the goal of the US destroying the Mideast all along.

BTW, do you want to know how we got those terrorists to be so mean?

Here's how:

Now, just where did the money come from for all that? 


highandwired's picture

He's calling for another "summit" of the same fucking criminals that created this fucking mess in the first place. 


Raul, get your head out of your fucking ass...these fuckers called "leaders" won't solve anthing.  They WANT mayhem.

ZerOhead's picture

A UN summit no less... gee I wonder who created the UN and for what purpose?

Xibalba's picture 'East German' 'Woman' will be blamed for WW3....gotcha.  raus mit euch!

COSMOS's picture

The political class has become like a tyrannical monarchy, they dont answer to the voters.  My solution is throw out the politicians.  All laws to be passed by national referendums.  Bills can be proposed by people or the staff of a public institutions.  Pay raises for national and local civil servants to be determined by referendums where we can decide how good a job they have done.  That way the bitch at the DMV will smile when she does my registration and not cop an attitude.

Food has an expiration date, so should any spending Bills.

highandwired's picture

"civil servants"...what a misnomer.  The bitch at the DMV will never give you a smile as long as the pig is at the trough. 

MalteseFalcon's picture

There is no need of a UN summit regarding this invasion.
The ratio of drownings relative to the number successful invaders is quite low. Getting into a boat is a voluntary choice by the invaders.
The invaders are almost exclusively military age men, not women and children. The majority of them are not Syrian.
If the invasion continues, it may mean the end of the EU. Oh well.
What would be the source of renewed military conflicts in the Balkans? The Bundeswehr?
Merkel is the one at risk. She now realizes she is very close to being escorted back to Poland.
If 3 million invaders attempt to invade Europe in 2016, governments will change. Therefore, there will not be 3 million invaders.
“And even if the total of 4 million refugees expected by the end of next year will be less than 1% of the EU’s 500 million population, someone better do something fast, or else”
Or else what exactly? You’ll write another scolding blog entry?
Who to blame? How about the country that caused this in the first place with endless war in the middle east.
End the war. Now.

Joe Trader's picture

Don't forget that the Potsdam agreement stipulated forced population relocations. That section should be brought back just for this scenario.

omniversling's picture

Wolfowitz Plan to destroy any competition to USSA hegemony working perfectly...

Bush Baby's picture

The best part is that in 2 years these young men can import their wives and children.

Then 3 million becoms 12 million

Manthong's picture 


Demdere's picture

2000 years after Titus’s 10th Legion ended a previous attempt, a political and investing cabal ofJews are again trying to carve out their own Jewish caliphate.

These people are giving Jews such a bad name.  Netanyahu and the American Neoconservatives are making it acceptable to be anti-Jewish, as the neocons have worked so hard to make it acceptable to be anti-Muslim.

And they sold it, it is unacceptable to be at all anti-Jewish in any aspect of being Jewish, especially not political, and acceptable to be anti-Islamic in any aspect of being Islamic, especially the political.

We in the western world have somehow all understood that the Muslims are the threat to us, not the Israeli Jews and largely-Jewish Neocons here in the US aiming the world toward war, leading a losing war for 14 years in a row and killing 100s 0f 1000s of innocents in the process. The propaganda is pervasive, the Muslims are the problem, that is the frame given by MSM to nearly every story.

These are very remarkable triumphs in control of public opinion that are not often remarked upon.

Captain Obvious.'s picture

Fuck all three Semitic religions. Jam the three headed snake up your arse. Return to the religions of your ancestors.

These parasitic cults have done enough damage already. We have tried them for a mere 2 out of 40 thousand years and they are nothing but trouble.

Bring back the lions.

SethDealer's picture

these ignorant arabs had a baby boom in the 1990's and now it is our problem. what to do with millions who cant read, write, or dig a ditch

o r c k's picture

I thought only a small percentage were from our war-torn Nations. Aren't the majority just going for the free stuff? And yeah, who shoots who?

History will show the EU failed by not meeting these "migrants" while they were still at sea. Saving thousands from drowning while choosing the eligible and re-patriating the economic oriented migrants who make up about 90% of them. Was it Australia that did this successfully? I think I read it here.  Wow, we're all so lucky that the "SMART" people are in charge!

swamp's picture

Merkel is the fox in the hen house. Calling on her to do anything except go to prison is more of the same.

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Whine louder, they can't hear you......

Raymond_K._Hessel's picture
Raymond_K._Hessel (not verified) Nov 9, 2015 2:57 PM

People are being encouragedby the us, and soros backed ngos, to travel to europe for freebies. From libya, from afghanistan, from Iraq, from all over.

Less than 1/3 are Syrian.

Notably neither the gulf countries nor israel, who are largely responsible for the man made catastrophe in Syria, are taking a single refugee from there, or anywhere else.

I havesearched in vain for MSM descriptions of those nations as 'xenophobic.'

ZerOhead's picture

Try 'racist'... maybe that will help.

Caleb Abell's picture

And yet the europeans are so stupid that they help the US destroy the ME and create more refugees.  I understand the French sent their only carrier to the persian gulf last week so the US carriers could high-tail it out of there before they were sunk.  Meanwhile, the refugees are heading to Paris to gang-rape all that fine french fur.

ZD1's picture

Many of those are economic refugees coming from countries like Somalia, Bangladesh, etc. who are looking for a better life on the government dole.

divedivedive's picture

Perhaps I'm naive but I was kind of hoping that Putin was going to clean house in Syria - allowing the refugees to return - thus ending the refugee crisis. Haven't heard much on the Russian progress lately. How's that going ?

OT : How we doing with that investigation into the Doctors without Borders hospital bombing ? The world really needs someone/something that just doesn't let this stuff fall off the radar. 


BandGap's picture

WTF, send them back.

Sudden Debt's picture

Just the Syrians?

They're letting in 3 times more from the rest of Africa. And if you let in people from every war region of regio's that hate us and we hate, you can only have conflicts.


ZerOhead's picture

The Africans were necessary to get the low European birth rates up...

ZD1's picture

...and turn Europe into a bankrupt turd world hellhole like much of Africa.

Yuubokumin's picture

please explain,

why would you hate Africans?

Sudden Debt's picture

I don't hate anybody but we've proven already to many times their code of ethics is totally different from ours and their view of productivity doesn't match ours.

There's plenty of nationalities that fit in just right and are very productive. Azians, East Europeans, Russians, Americans, South Americans... you never hear any complaints about these people.

Africans in general are lazy people. They work when they need money, and if the money comes for free they stop working. And that's not how our economic model works. 

You might look for a racist point of view but there's none. Just facts and reality.


One And Only's picture
19 year old girl in German city becomes victim of refugee rape gang, 4th attack this month alone

And let me just remind everyone the Tsarnaev brothers were refugees. 

Wake the fuck up people.

Bay of Pigs's picture

You're throwing those names out on the Boston Bombing false flag event and telling us to "wake up"?

Come on bro...

One And Only's picture

Not everything that happens is a false flag bro. Next you'll tell me the US government created Hitler in order to drag us into war OR that the US faked the holocaust altogether in some far out zionist plot to steal land from poor muslims. Sick of it.

MadVladtheconquerer's picture
MadVladtheconquerer (not verified) One And Only Nov 9, 2015 3:14 PM

Yaaa, the Holocaust was carried out on a Hollywood sound stage.  Those special effects were way ahead of

their time.  And we still can't cure acancer across the board.  Oh wait.  I have the cure on a shelf in my lab.

Scratch that.

One And Only's picture

And Stanley Kubrik did 2001: A Space Odyssey as practice for the fake moon landing that was done in a secret filming studio in area 51. 

CIA killed Kennedy 

HARP controls the weather 

bloah blah blah blah blah

kliguy38's picture

the only thing you're sick of is sucking the wang of your govi psyop bosses.......troll

MadVladtheconquerer's picture
MadVladtheconquerer (not verified) One And Only Nov 9, 2015 3:20 PM

You mean the moon landing was faked!!!!!  Oh man, you're raining on my parade!

I've been to Area 51.  There is no secret fllm studio but there were some alien bodies.

And all along I thought Lee Harvey killed Kennedy under secret sealed orders of J Edgar Hoover.

highandwired's picture

"And all along I thought Lee Harvey killed Kennedy" <------ Your ignorance is not unlike most of the other stupid, zombiefied sheeple in the USSA

Raymond_K._Hessel's picture
Raymond_K._Hessel (not verified) One And Only Nov 9, 2015 3:49 PM

surely Oswald acted alone, shooting at a receding target, all of the bullets, to include those fired from the front, and the pristine bullet later found, amazingly, on a hospital bed.

When he said 'I'm just a patsy' that was just a clever lie. And Jack Rubenstein killed Oswald before he could say more out of the profound love for the first Catholic president common to both the Jewish community and organized crime.

As with the official 9/11 story, to doubt this tale is to doubt the State, and to doubt the state is, per se, a sign of mental illness.

highandwired's picture

maybe the "US" didn't create Hitler, it was rather the fucking banksters that CONTROL the US.  Same fucking shit to me

kliguy38's picture

the only thing you're sick of is sucking the wang of your govi psyop bosses.......troll

MadVladtheconquerer's picture
MadVladtheconquerer (not verified) kliguy38 Nov 9, 2015 3:26 PM

Hmmmm.  So I take it that you still enjoy it?  Swallow.  You might get a raise.

Raymond_K._Hessel's picture
Raymond_K._Hessel (not verified) One And Only Nov 9, 2015 3:39 PM

And yet, some are.

And some, like the Lavon Affair and the USS Liberty 'incident' were failed attempts.

Sudden Debt's picture

That never makes the newspapers AT ALL!