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Gold Price Drop of 6 Nov: Drilling Down

Monetary Metals's picture




 

The price of gold dropped abruptly Friday morning (Arizona time). How much of a drop? $10.30, as measured by the bid on the December future. How abruptly? That move happened in under a second.

At first, the price of gold in the spot market did not react. This caused what looks like a massive backwardation (recall that the cobasis = Spot(bid) – Future(ask)—if the future drops relative to spot, that is backwardation). See the graph of price overlaid with the Dec cobasis.

drill down

The cobasis briefly hits a peak around 11% (from its “normal” level, currently in temporary backwardation, around 0.5%).

The whole cobasis spike is over 79 seconds later. The spot price is finally updated and the giant apparition of backwardation is banished.

We are not London bullion market insiders. However, we would bet an ounce of fine gold against a soggy dollar bill that this backwardation was not actionable. That is, it represents a delay in updating a quote rather than an offer to let you decarry your gold and pocket nearly $17 an ounce (we would love to hear stories to the contrary).

There are enough serious problems with the dollar, and the gold market is hardly in a state that could be called normal. So let’s not make this molehill into a mountain. One commentator asserted that the spot market did not “believe” the futures price.

The fact is that the event began in the futures market. It propagated to the spot market subsequently. Attributing motives is just guessing. Attributing it to manipulation is just making up ghost stories around the campfire.

 

Do you support the gold standard? Please come and be counted. Show the legislature and governor in Arizona that honest money is popular! Please come to the Monetary

Innovation Conference in Phoenix on Nov 17 (Keith Weiner is a speaker). At the conference, speakers will discuss gold and how innovators are using it to solve real problems for real people. Please click here to register. After the conference, we may put on a Monetary Metals seminar if there is sufficient interest. Please click here if interested (different link).

 

© 2015 Monetary Metals

 

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Tue, 11/10/2015 - 16:46 | 6774055 Flying Wombat
Flying Wombat's picture

GLD Is Being Looted To Help Banks Manipulate The Price Of Gold - Dave Kranzler

http://thenewsdoctors.com/?p=537796

Tue, 11/10/2015 - 16:33 | 6773956 Wow72
Wow72's picture

Isnt it great we are able to invest in a stable, uncorrupt, unbiased, reliable, not manipiulated, greed free, free market?  We can all make a wish that our dream will become reality!  Maybe someday, but thats not the reality of the markets we invest in today!

Tue, 11/10/2015 - 15:43 | 6773730 r0mulus
r0mulus's picture

So, if there was a drop in the futures (ask) price, I am guessing that the drop in the futures price must have been precitipated by some kind of "puke" or "waterfall" trade with the aid of naked shorts? It would be interesting to see this article paired with the accompanying nanex charts...

Tue, 11/10/2015 - 15:23 | 6773619 FullPl8
FullPl8's picture

There most certainly IS a gold standard.

A physical gold standard for those at the top, a paper gold standard for the rest of us.

Why do you think countries are trying, and having issues, repatriating their physical gold?

Tue, 11/10/2015 - 14:59 | 6773486 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

It's not "manipulation". 

It's the government maintaining and protecting a SYSTEM which allows the price of real metal to be decided by paper speculators. 

Tue, 11/10/2015 - 14:12 | 6773175 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

The only paper I own is the stuff I wipe my ass with.

Market paper is worthless, because I cannot do a good job of wiping my ass with it.

Gold was worth $28.00 an ounce when I was a kid. Silver was worth whatever was printed on the coin you spent.

Fiat clearly stated " Pay to the bearer on demand " value in gold or silver if you cashed it in at the bank.

Any one think those days are coming back?

All of the lying bum fucking aristocracy of the Age Of Paper Power can burn in their paper suits soonest.

I won't even bother pissing on them to put out the flames.

Tue, 11/10/2015 - 13:43 | 6772990 ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

"Attributing it to manipulation is just making up ghost stories around the campfire."

WTF?  This statement contradicts the entire article... How about "Not attributing it to manipulation is as ignorant as believing the jew halocaust ghost stories"


Tue, 11/10/2015 - 14:27 | 6773293 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Exactly.

Yo people, something was really screwed up in the gold market there for a few seconds, we can't explain it but it wasn't manipulation. Nice conclusion.

Tue, 11/10/2015 - 14:31 | 6773322 SuperVinci
SuperVinci's picture

to employ a gold standard means some gov needs to manage the price which means a gold standard is MOAR central planning.

 

Plus, it has the added quality of having been tried several times by mankind and failing miserably each time because we humans invariably expand credit and fail to follow our "rules" we set out in the begginning of these "gold standards".

 

Gold standard= been there, done that, no thanks ever again.

Tue, 11/10/2015 - 14:34 | 6773344 SuperVinci
SuperVinci's picture

with paper versions of gold and silver dwarfing the actual underlying physical by  (egaads) 294:1, why are any of you guys surprised the metals keep on falling in price?

 

They will keep falling as these paper markets continue on their path of destruction. As players keep allocating, they dump the more plentiful and less wanted paper stuff.

 

Simples.

Tue, 11/10/2015 - 14:39 | 6773371 SuperVinci
SuperVinci's picture

Also, to run a gold standard, one needs to have the biggest (all?) pile of gold.

 

How can that happen in todays world where gold has been spreading itself out globaly for 45 years, especially the last 8 years.

 

No, gold is even more diversely held by third world nobodies/joe6p's and governements than ever before.

 

A gold standard wont be happening.

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