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"It's A Bloodbath" - Here Is The Biggest Casualty Of Canada's Recession

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In the past year, we have extensively profiled the collapse of ground zero of Canada's oil industry, Calgary, as a result of the plunge in the price of oil, in posts such as the following:

Since then it has only gotten worse for Canada, and as of two it culminated with the first official recession in 7 years.

 

Additionally, in September we profiled the expected collapse of the Calgary commercial real estate market when we reported that in Alberta Canada now has 1.7 million square feet of empty office space, the most in North America, with another 5.2 million under construction! After years of booming construction, the natural resource rich country is starting to feel the pinch.

Overnight Bloomberg followed up on this stunning deterioration when it, too, reported that "office-tower owners in Canada’s energy hub are about to feel the full force of the oil-price crash."

Using data from real estate brokers including Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. and Avison Young, Bloomberg calculates that vacancy is already at a five-year high in Calgary and rents are the lowest since 2006 after thousands of office jobs were cut. Energy company tenants have now begun to ask for rental relief and are offering subleases for as little as half the going rate.

The backlog is even worse: five new office towers with about 3.8 million square feet (353,031 square meters) of space hits the market in the next three years.

End result: if one ignores shadow vacancy rates, it is "only" as bad as 2010. If one adds shadow vacancy, or space leased but sitting empty, the rate jumps to 16%, the highest since the mid-1980s.

In downtown Calgary, the vacancy rate jumped to 14 percent in the third quarter, the highest since 2010 and compared with 5 percent for downtown Toronto, according to CBRE Group Inc. Companies are subleasing a record 2.7 million square feet, the brokerage said. That doesn’t include as much as 2 million square feet of so-called "shadow vacancy" or space leased but sitting empty, which would push vacancy to 16 percent, the most since the mid-1980s.

As for Canada in general, the vacany rate has already surpassed the 2009 highs.

The following comment from Alexi Olcheski, an office-leasing principal at Avison Young from his office in downtown Calgary, says it all:
"It is a bloodbath. We’re at the highest point of fear and uncertainty now."

The real estate mauling is impacting the public stocks of office REITs: "caught in the downturn are tower owners including Dream Office REIT, Artis REIT and Morguard Corp., whose shares have dropped about 27 percent, 14 percent and 5.1 percent respectively over the past 12 months. The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Capped REIT Index is down 8.7 percent over the same period compared with a 8.2 percent drop in the broad S&P/TSX Composite Index. U.S. crude has dropped more than half since its peak in June 2014 to hover around $45 a barrel."

Some more examples of how the collapse in oil prices is spreading through the economy, which is on the verge of grinding to a halt:

Penn West Plaza, owned by developer Morguard, is among the buildings with empty floors. About 38 percent of its 621,628 square feet of office space is on the market for sublease, according to leasing documents. The going rate for the penthouse of the West tower is “negotiable” while occupancy is “immediate” for other floors, according to the ads. Morguard didn’t return phone calls and e-mails seeking comment.

 

Employment at Penn West Petroleum Ltd. shrank to less than 800 workers this year from about 2,250 three years ago. Athabasca Oil Corp., which eliminated more than 25 percent of its workforce last month, has been subleasing from Penn West and is also trying to find tenants to take some space off its hands, according to listings.

 

Even Calgary’s most iconic tower, completed just a few years ago, isn’t immune. The 58-story Bow, Canada’s second-largest office building at 2.0 million square feet, is owned by H&R REIT and leased until 2038 to Encana Corp., the real estate firm’s largest tenant by revenue. Encana subleases 1 million square feet to Cenovus Energy Inc., which in turn aims to vacate and sublease half of that, according to Reg Curren, a Cenovus spokesman. Together, the firms cut about 1,500 jobs this year, part of the 36,000 job losses at energy companies across Canada since the oil rout began.

Perhaps it is time for Canada to implement double seasonally-adjusted initial claims reports too and to pull a BLS, showing how despite reality, the job market is flying.

For now one thing is preventing an all out real-estate disaster: subleasing, but even that is at best cutting losses by half, with subleases done at 50% of the original cost. This had lead to rents dropping to C$20.75 a square foot in downtown Calgary, the lowest since at least 2006.

Subleasing is in overdrive and has helped buffer landlords from the impact of the oil slump. Avison Young’s Olcheski said he made his first quadruple sublease earlier this year, when a technology firm rented space from a company several leases removed from the main energy tenant.

 

But the subleases are being done at as little as 50 percent of the original cost, according to Damien Mills, executive vice president and managing director of Western Canada for JLL. Rents have dropped to C$20.75 a square foot in downtown Calgary, the lowest since at least 2006, according to the brokerage.

Which means one thing: more equity downside, and more layoffs: "Landlords now are forced to compete with somebody that’s looking for a very different return on their real estate cost," Mills said. Some owners are already feeling the pain. Two-thirds of Dream Office’s space in Calgary expires in the years up to 2019 and only 13 percent has been picked up, according to company documents.

"With a smaller tenant size relative to most landlords, we believe this reduces leasing rollover risk as these tenants tend to be leaner, resulting in less headcount reductions during an economic downturn," Rajeev Viswanathan, chief financial officer of Dream Office, said by e-mail. The company is also aggressively pursuing smaller tenants, he said.

But the worst news: another influx of soon to be completed office space means another 2 million square feet in rental availability are about to hit the market, sending rents to what may soon be record lows.

Artis REIT, which has 20 office buildings in Calgary with tenants including power generator TransAlta Corp., has 2.2 million square feet uncommitted starting in 2016, according to company documents. Artis executives didn’t respond to requests seeking comment.

 

In addition to the current glut of space, five office towers -- each with at least 430,000 square feet -- are due for completion in the next three years in Calgary, some only 36 percent leased as of October.

 

Olcheski, who’s worked in Calgary for about 10 years, is trying to remain optimistic amid the uncertainty. It’s going to be his best year yet for leases to smaller, non-energy tenants, for example.

What happens then? Nobody knows, or rather, only god does: "God only knows what’ll happen if oil doesn’t rebound," he said. "I try not to let that penetrate my mind" Olcheski concluded.

 

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Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:03 | 6776574 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

What happens then? Nobody knows, or rather, only god does: "God only knows what’ll happen if oil doesn’t rebound," he said. "I try not to let that penetrate my mind."

Sticking your head in the sand is always the best course of action, pussy. 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:06 | 6776584 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

Pretty boy Trudeau will save them.....just kidding.....not really.

 

But he should amp up the bloodbath considerably.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:07 | 6776588 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

I think Canada needs more immigrants. That should be priority number 1. 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:11 | 6776593 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

Immigrants = Grunts

 

 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:20 | 6776605 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

I wouldn't be opposed to Canada taking over Michigan....and all the damn Syrians headed there.

 

 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:22 | 6776626 negative rates
negative rates's picture

If oil doesn't rebound then just start giving away your gold, that ought to piss somebody off enough to take action.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:25 | 6776639 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

Too late. Canada has fuck all for Gold reserves. 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:31 | 6776658 Toronto Kid
Toronto Kid's picture

Canada has lots of gold reserves in the securest vault known to man - the ground. Any time the Canadian government wants a few tons, she has a mining company dig it out.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:37 | 6776672 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

True. However, not so liquid when you got a FSA that needs breast feeding. 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:43 | 6776700 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

 

 

During the late 80's and early 90's oil prices dropped below $20/barrell.  The oil patch, Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma, suffered greatly.  Look to that as a guide to what is about to happen to Canada.  It is going to get much worse than bad. 

 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:56 | 6776766 pods
pods's picture

Can't they just fake it until they make it like their Southern neighbor?

pods

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:30 | 6776938 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

What happens then? Nobody knows, or rather, only god does: "God only knows what’ll happen if oil doesn’t rebound," he said. "I try not to let that penetrate my mind" Olcheski concluded.

Its not your mind they wanna penetrate douchebag

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:52 | 6777033 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

....Canada should close its borders to Free Trade and become self sufficient....

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:56 | 6777053 ILike2Watch
ILike2Watch's picture

^^^ This a million times over. There is NOTHING Canada "NEEDS" from other countries. Closer-up and become the natural resource showcase powerhouse it can be.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:26 | 6777207 armageddon addahere
armageddon addahere's picture

But people would have to go to work. Governments would have to stop depending on the slick trick, the quick fix and the gimmick. What are you some kind of libertarian fanatic? (sarkylert)

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 13:35 | 6777781 Okienomics
Okienomics's picture

Nothing Canada needs from other countries?  Except, oh, I don't know...

 

Coffee, tobacco, all tropical fruits (oranges, limes, lemons, bananas, pineapples, mangos...), avocados, cotton..  anything that doesn't grow in the tundra.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 14:25 | 6778059 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

No cotton, but Canada DOES grow a lot of hemp!  And they grow Citrus in southern Russia (Abkhazia) so why not?

Truth is, Canada's policies have been dictated by mega-corps and the United States.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 15:36 | 6778369 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Go long greenhouses.

Worth it.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 16:16 | 6778589 frankly scarlet
frankly scarlet's picture

Okie...Some say global warming is a corporate plot but on Canada's northern prairies the growing season in places is now 2 weeks longer allowing for the growing of new crops to these areas like corn.   "Oranges and lemons say the bells of St. Clements"

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 16:26 | 6778638 I_rikey_lice
I_rikey_lice's picture

No Tobacco?

Hey Okie, you ever been to Tillsonburg?

Tillsonburg? My back still aches when I hear that word.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:43 | 6777279 RockRiver
RockRiver's picture

^^^ This a million times over. There is NOTHING Canada "NEEDS" from other countries. Closer-up and become the natural resource showcase powerhouse it can be.

 

Except maybe vegetables.....

Tough growing season in the north lands.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 13:38 | 6777814 quartshort
quartshort's picture

Geothermal heat exchange micro gardens for the win? 

Unicorn meat?

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 14:31 | 6778099 Maxter
Maxter's picture

Western Canada actualy grow a lot of fruits.  
Eastern Canada is good at growing vegetables.

What we need is enough storage space for the winter.

 

 

Oh and Fuck You Saudi Arabia! 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:11 | 6777347 Vincent.Vega
Vincent.Vega's picture

> There is NOTHING Canada "NEEDS" from other countries.

Conceptually, no country needs anything from anyone, all humans need are food, energy and shelter, everything else is for show-off or conspicuous consumption by the sheeple.

However, the Western sheeple have been fully supporting ("... our mercenaries" on their bumper stickers) and enjoying results of robbing colonies for the last 500 years -- and once the inflow of Chinese capital pumping up Canadian housing bubble was cut a little bit, Canada is going into a "recession" (politically correct version of "The Greatest Depression", since the sheeple are not quite ready to accept the reality yet).

 

 

Cohenada has always been a colony and a masonic project, even the "Remembrance Day" (aka Opium Poppy Day) falls on 11/11 and a two minute silence will be observed at 11 am.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/remembrance/how/silence.shtml

[...]

On the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month in 1918 the guns of Europe fell silent.

After four years of bitter fighting, The Great War was finally over.

The Armistice was signed at 5am in a railway carriage in the Forest of Compiegne, France on November 11, 1918.

Six hours later, at 11am, the war ended.

[...]

 

Is it not just mind-boggling how much those psychopaths focus on numbers, especially on EL-EVEN (EL is for Elohim)?

The goym scapegoat sacrifice to the Elohim and the coming Zionist Empire will be "remembered" for two minutes (11 + 2 = 13).

PS

Just wonder _when_ China is going to retaliate and make the BRIT-ish Jews pay for the Opium Wars.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 15:18 | 6778204 Solon the Destroyer
Solon the Destroyer's picture

....Canada should close its borders to Free Trade and become self sufficient....


And...

 

This a million times over. There is NOTHING Canada "NEEDS" from other countries. Closer-up and become the natural resource showcase powerhouse it can be.

 

Outside of the trolls and the NSA plants, these two comments have to be two of the dumbest comments I have ever read on ZH.  I rarely log-in because this site loads like a 14th century blunderbuss, but I had to today.

300 yrs of economic thought and progress ignored. Bastiat is laughing his head off.  Completely ignores the market. Completely ignores reality.  Completely ignores the consumer.

How the fuck does this level of stupidity get over 20 upvotes?  What has happened to the audience at ZH?  When did the fucking socialists and protectionists take over?

And what the fuck makes you think there is free trade of any sort in Canada?

Because they put that label on an Agreement?

If there was truly Free Trade, an agreement would be unnecessary.  "Free Trade" Agreements are actually Protectionism, Oligopoly & Cartel Agreements that entrench corporate socialism.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:58 | 6776773 Eeyores Enigma
Eeyores Enigma's picture

So which is it?

Prices need to go down so consumer confidence soars and everyone starts spending.

Prices need to go up so oil industry and all supporting industry confidence soars and they all start spending.

Can't have it both ways.

 

Pee Coil.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:20 | 6776903 thecondor
thecondor's picture

The first of next year, oil will start to rise.  Oil will be $75 by this time next year no matter the economic situation of the country. 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 14:36 | 6778120 Maxter
Maxter's picture

In Canada, the value of our currency is tied to the value of oil.

So when oil goes down, our currency also goes down, so the price of everything goes up.

I am no economist but it sems to me that high oil price is good for Canadians.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 15:00 | 6778214 pitz
pitz's picture

Prices haven't been going up on Canada on account of severely truncated demand and little pricing power. 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 15:14 | 6778282 Maxter
Maxter's picture

I now pay 4$ for my fruit juice at the grocery store.  It was maximum 3.30$ before.  That's a good enough increase for me.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:14 | 6776838 HungryPorkChop
HungryPorkChop's picture

Yep, real estate prices fell like a rock in Texas when the oil bust happened in the 80's.  And it wasn't a gentle correction like 10% or 15%.  While it took several years of falling real estate prices around a 30% to 60% lower value was par for the course. 

The difference is back then interest rates were 8% to 16%. Today they keep real estate prices from dropping with ZIRP policies.   I'm sure its the same in Canada.

The banks knows this which is why they cannot raise interest rates by any measureable amount. 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:16 | 6776880 duo
duo's picture

you knew the bottom was in when everything had been foreclosed on twice.  Took until about 1992.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:02 | 6777067 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

The banks fucked up when they did not make use of the fake real-estate increase of the last few years and divest their bad mortgages.  

That was the purpose of debasing Accounting to keep that off the books till they could dump them.  I don't think that they dumped the mortgages and therefore Accounting cannot be reinstated.

At least the execs got their bonuses....

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 14:40 | 6778143 Dungeness
Dungeness's picture

Yes, I remember that.

This caused the Savings andLoan crisis in the late 80s. There are no longer any Texas banks: Texas Commerce, Republic Bank, Interfirst, etc. - all gone.

And of course, real estate went down.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 16:19 | 6778050 Solon the Destroyer
Solon the Destroyer's picture

Canada has lots of gold reserves in the securest vault known to man - the ground. Any time the Canadian government wants a few tons, she has a mining company dig it out.

So no different really than any other country who has no reserves and still needs to buy them.  Not exactly useful in a sovereign debt crisis.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:30 | 6776654 philipat
philipat's picture

So why are property prices not collapsing from stratospheric levels? Same question in Australia?

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:37 | 6776673 negative rates
negative rates's picture

It's called, manipulation.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:13 | 6776862 oddjob
oddjob's picture

It's called a cheap dollar.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:18 | 6776888 HungryPorkChop
HungryPorkChop's picture

It's called ZIRP policies where a 30 year mortgage is 3.75%.  Cheap money and low interest rates are keeping da' game going and bubble intact. 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:05 | 6777380 bania
bania's picture

It's called a finite amount of land, duh!

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 23:07 | 6780341 FixItAgainTony
FixItAgainTony's picture

with an infinite amount of property tax potential.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:07 | 6777393 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Not to mention that the public is brainwashed and deluded into believing that "RE never goes down". Canada's RE market did not correct in 2006-2009. It dipped and then took off with ZIRP and the lowest mortgage rates in history. Turned into a bubble and gong show.

The people there that are leveraged up in RE deserve what is coming.

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 22:02 | 6784917 Abbie Normal
Abbie Normal's picture

Those Canadian HGTV shows are a hoot!  Who else can afford $600K for an 80-yr old fixer upper row house in Toronto, and then put in another $200K to make it habitable?  Last I heard, Canadians don't make 3X the income of Americans.

Now that some of those shows have taken their act on the road, it's amazing what $200K will get in Durham or Atlanta instead.  Canadian real estate is so screwed...

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:28 | 6776931 Francis Marx
Francis Marx's picture

No its called  spooffing oil up.  I can guarentee the US, Canada, oil producers hire 3 party spoofers to ramp up the oil, even though its coming out of everyones ears and no where to store it.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:39 | 6776683 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

give it time.  real estate doesn't have to clear a market every day as do publicly traded stocks and bonds.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:00 | 6776788 freedogger
freedogger's picture

Yep, takes a year for EI benefits to expire.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:17 | 6777158 highandwired
highandwired's picture

I live in Alberta.  Everyone and their dog is up to their eyeballs in debt!  I see panic setting in.

These idiots keep thinking that owning a bigger and bigger house is a way to become rich.  I am in construction and the housing bubble in Alberta is just mind blowing.  People that are in the middle class are going in debt so that they can build themselves small castles which I will be taking apart in the future when these people will become so poor that they will be unable to heat these homes.  Remember, the winters here are very cold.  The stupidity is everywhere.   

Can't wait for this real estate bubble to burst so that I can pick up some cheap land, maybe a quarter or two. I remember the 90's recession in Alberta when oil was $10/barrel.  Life was hard.  This time around it will be much much worse!  Keep stacking.

 

 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:41 | 6777272 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

I worked in Regina for a year. It was great talking to the farmers. Here we talk about acres - 100 acres being a common farm size. In Sask is was how many quarter sections(~160 acres) guys owned. Some big farmers worked 40 quarters. I can't relate.

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 22:09 | 6784927 Abbie Normal
Abbie Normal's picture

The local news station recently interviewed a pawn shop owner in Calgary and he's up to his ears in $5-10K Rolexes for which he offers $500.  The most common comment he hears from those pawning their toys is that $500 will cover the car payment for another month.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:05 | 6776810 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Prices have not moved. ZH keeps jumping the gun on Canada. And you bet I want it to collapse. But so far, nothings changed

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:12 | 6777424 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Did you miss this?

"For now one thing is preventing an all out real-estate disaster: subleasing, but even that is at best cutting losses by half, with subleases done at 50% of the original cost. This had lead to rents dropping to C$20.75 a square foot in downtown Calgary, the lowest since at least 2006."

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:46 | 6777011 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

In RE prices don't fall so much as sales dry up. Giving property away in a fire sale is a stupid choice when you can just hold on to it and wait. The only drop in prices will be from forced sales. The real damage comes from the illiquidity from trapped capital. You can't build that new widgit factory when all your assets are tied into an empty office building. That's okay though since we have enough widgits already.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:38 | 6777261 highandwired
highandwired's picture

"Giving property away in a fire sale is a stupid choice when you can just hold on to it and wait."

Uh, yeah sure, if you still have a job and are able to service the debt.  What if ZIRP is no longer our twisted reality?  What do you do then when you have 3 mortgages you can't service? 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:24 | 6777483 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

Check out Garth Turners blog for insight on the Canuck housing bubble - but truly what really sucks is our dollar weakening against our cousins - it's making it damn near impossible to to go to Hawaii now :(

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:44 | 6777569 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I know Maui very well and Kihei in particular. Kihei gets around 70% of its tourism from Canadians so it's going to be a very tough winter for condo owners there renting their places out. Many bars and restaurants are having problems already. Commerical RE has been slaughtered there the last few years. Lots of empty spaces.

That said, if you go out there this winter let me know and we'll hook up for a drink. Met Miffed and her husband out there last winter.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:52 | 6777598 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

Mighty nice of you. -

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 15:02 | 6778221 pitz
pitz's picture

They are.  Canadian housing prices have been falling for more than 2 years now. 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:15 | 6777139 AllMightyDollar
AllMightyDollar's picture

Oh, You Betcha ..... Ehhhh

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:37 | 6777257 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Send them all to Foxford, Sask

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:18 | 6776612 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

Grunts =

 

G girls and boys

R regular

U unsustainable

N never ending

T Taking

S Social benifits

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:25 | 6776636 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture
Jim Balsillie fears TPP could cost Canada billions and become worst-ever policy move

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jim-balsillie-tpp-1.3310179

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:59 | 6777060 ILike2Watch
ILike2Watch's picture

Let me correct this for the CBC

 

"Jim Balsillie fears TPP could WILL cost Canada billions and become worst-ever policy move"

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:44 | 6776709 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

"36,000 energy jobs lost."

ROFL!! Try 236,000! The 36,000 figure is media spin BS. Only counts publically reported losses, which are a fraction of actual losses.

It's even worse than this article says, in many ways.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:45 | 6777000 rejected
rejected's picture

Girls and boys....

Yea,,, right...

Thu, 12/03/2015 - 10:03 | 6870174 TruthHunter
TruthHunter's picture

Immigrants?

Or IED delivery boys

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:28 | 6776930 Anonymous User
Anonymous User's picture

Canada NEEDS to start up a porn industry and use immigrants. 

Yeah, and no more welfare checks for free. Work it biatch:

http://www.thepornster.com/video/475/homeless-blowjob-reality-porn

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:09 | 6776590 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

"It is a bloodbath. We’re at the highest point of fear and uncertainty now."

 

Comming to a place near you...............soon

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:23 | 6776633 negative rates
negative rates's picture

And just think, you aint seen nothin yet.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:31 | 6776644 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

Yes N R

 

08-09 will look like a walk in the park.

 

16-17 not looking good at all.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:38 | 6776677 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Yeah, things that never arrive, don't look good.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:28 | 6776646 duo
duo's picture

Welcome to Dallas in 1986.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:01 | 6776791 chairman of the...
chairman of the bored's picture

Same in OK City in 86.....see thru buildings as far as the eye could see..

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:17 | 6776882 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

It was the same in Calgary in 86 as well. Complete disaster.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:32 | 6777235 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Houston became a ghost town in the 1980s and stayed that way pretty much until the oil boom in this past 10-15 years. I remember driving there in 1997 and remember that downtown mall was totally empty. The downtown area was so deserted not even the Thugs went there!

My brother who lives nearby there said 40% of Houston's GDP is now energy related and most of his engineer friends have already been "laid off." Yet Houston's MSM says the other sectors will keep them growing 'robustly.'

 

We'll see. When you pay off 50,000 to 100,000 high paying, highly educated people I doubt the GDP will glow since those folks are usually prudent and will cut back big time to survive the crunch which will most likely last for 3-5 years minimum. Private sector people [who are undoubtedly hit the hardest] do not spend on ANYTHING extraneous in that economy.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:07 | 6777387 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Houston residential RE is smokin'. Oddly enough, key personnel have been brought back to the home offices from the job sites where the layoffs are occuring. The downsizing will catch up with them eventually, but not today.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:10 | 6777410 HungryPorkChop
HungryPorkChop's picture

In Austin, TX it was the same with shuttered buildings and hyper depressed land prices.  The city recovered quite nicely with all the high tech and freely flowing govt money.  Home's near downtown that you could of purchased for $100,000 in 1992 are now $400,000 and $600,000. A lot of people made big bucks in the real estate market in these areas flipping houses and pimpin' those $750,000 McMansions. However, I'd really hate to be one of those people holding a $500,000 mortgage about right now!!

 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:07 | 6777392 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Canada, have no fear, China is here!

You need sell?  I need buy.  Leal cheap.  LOL. LOTF.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:03 | 6776803 fireangelmaverick
fireangelmaverick's picture

ZH, you guys are the idiots. Constantly citing everything negative. You have diagnosed 27 out of the last 0 US recessions and missed all 250% of the stock rally. And now when Canada has a small GDP decline, all while employment in Canada continues to grow, it is the END of the WORLD for the 28th time! 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:07 | 6777389 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

@fireangelmaverick..........snore..............you bore me.....I hope your handlers aren't paying you per keystroke

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 13:42 | 6777839 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Fireangelmaverick

And whoda thunk conjuring up $30 trillion of debt in China might jack up commodity prices world wide.  Dirty money (of the moral, criminal, and environmental kind) has poured into real estate across the globe.  Vancouver and Tranta all know who is buying up this stuff, but no government wants to admit they are selling out their own citizens.

As to Canada- coal, oil, copper, zinc, lumber, potash- are all tanking.  Trudeau the younger has the attitude of Daddy and the brains of Mommy.  Ask Mick Jagger what she's like in the back seat of a limo.

7 years of ZIRP, NIRP and TWIRP and only those that breath that special rarified air- criminal bankers and government employees- think we never had and are not in a recession.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:16 | 6777151 Yttrium Gold Ni...
Yttrium Gold Nitrogen's picture

Tar sand, that is.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:39 | 6777265 Billy O'Naire
Billy O'Naire's picture

What happens then? Nobody knows, or rather, only god does: "God only knows what’ll happen if oil doesn’t rebound," he said. "I try not to let that penetrate my mind."

Sticking your head in the sand is always the best course of action, pussy.

 

 

To be fair, it's often where the oil is.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:46 | 6777295 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

I recall one Prime Minister Harper "layin' down the law" to Vlad Putin not too long ago. He didn't do his homework when they picked this fight:

Marginal Production Cost (one new barrel)

Russia: $18

Canda: $90

 

Sorry to my Canadian friends, you are good folks who deserved better (we all do).

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:19 | 6777455 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

That actually sounds a lot like the Hope strategy...

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:03 | 6776575 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Maybe Canada can take the Bieber back to keep them entertained and take their mind off of things. No, seriously..., take him..,, he's yours.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:04 | 6776809 pods
pods's picture

Let him marry Miley Cyrus first.  

And take the old man too.

pods

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:27 | 6776927 thecondor
thecondor's picture

I thought they were the same person.  Wel all know Miley has a dick and Beiber doesn't. 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 15:51 | 6778448 FIAT CON
FIAT CON's picture

He is one export I'm glad to be rid of.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:03 | 6776576 Fester
Fester's picture

Somebody needs a Spider-Man towel.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:49 | 6777022 The best Sun
The best Sun's picture

As a cry/spank rag or in the hitch hickers guide to the galaxy way?

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:04 | 6776579 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Canada, Canada sucks.

Peter Griffen Family Guy

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:18 | 6776613 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

No one wants to talk about this....but I think it needs to be addressed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOR38552MJA&list=RDbOR38552MJA

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:11 | 6777413 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"Canada?  What street does he live on?" -Al Capone

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:07 | 6776587 Hopeless for Change
Hopeless for Change's picture

Canada should go on strike!

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:19 | 6776615 nosam
nosam's picture

Canada should seccede from the US

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:21 | 6776623 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

No way.....it we have to suffer....so do they!

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:09 | 6777400 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Right after Texas.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:09 | 6776592 autofixer
autofixer's picture

Too bad Obamao killed the pipeline, otherwise Canada could have made up the difference on volume.  

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:23 | 6776628 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Owebama. There- I autofixed it for ya.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:19 | 6776900 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Not to worry Barry's Uncle Warren has got the volume part covered. And most of those rail cars make to it their destination too.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:54 | 6777043 Hopeless for Change
Hopeless for Change's picture

OweBombYa

There, autofixed your autofixer

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:12 | 6776595 JamesH
JamesH's picture

it will give them something to do while they have no jobs

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:14 | 6776599 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

After years of oil producers penetrating my retail ass at the pump...I don't give two shits. Let that penetrate your mind.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:42 | 6776696 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

+2.23 (the price I'm currently paying per gallon of 87 octane). Yes, when the driving public was complaining that a gallon of gas at $3.85 was just a tad too high, the cunts on Wall Street were saying, "suck it up, Nancy."

So, now, they don't want to think about oil and gas being down for 1, 2, 3 years maybe? My ass is just beginning to heal, so, to all the oil producers, STFU.

IT WILL GET WORSE.

Deflation is taking hold everywhere. I just got a letter from American Tax Funding (yeah, ATF, I love it), the company which buys the tax leins on over 46,000 properties in Rochester, NY and elsewhere, for 40-48 cents on the dollar.

They said they need to hear from me in 30 days about my unpaid tax bill because they COULD start foreclosure proceedings. They said that last year, and the year before that and the year before that. I haven't paid taxes on my crap city property for 7 years. And they WILL NOT foreclose. I know they won't. They don't want the property because then they'd have to put money into it and pay taxes on it. The truth hurts, doesn't it. They don't like property taxes as much as anyone else.

The property taxes in Rochester go largely to pay for a school system that graduates a whopping 45% of all students in 2014 (up from 42% in 2013). Not paying my taxes is a direct result of their failure. Is there a problem here? You don't understand? Let me spell it out. I am tired of governments at all levels wasting tax dollars, so I'm not paying.

This is the coming trend. When real estate taxes are in excess of people's ability to pay, first, the government looks to companies like ATF to buy up all the tax liens. When those companies fail (though they're funded by Uncle Warren's Wells Fargo, which in turn is funded by the Federal Reserve, so the $$$$ flow may be unlimited), or stop buying up tax liens, the cities will have a huge hole in their budgets. State aid, then Federal, then, ta da, Detroit, aka, default.

Can't. Fucking. Wait.

Sorry to go off-topic to a degree and prattle on, but whenever I hear about vacancy rates and real estate, I always think property taxes, stupid kids, overpaid tachers and administrators with golden health care and retirement plans and I get a little twitchy.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:58 | 6776776 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

Cool.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 13:56 | 6777898 Kayman
Kayman's picture

FreeNewEnergy

Way to go.  Let the Predators and Parasites live off themselves.  Before I got a little bit smarter and asked myself what I really, really needed, I used to collect and pay huge taxes. Now I don't.

Sad, but true- I had an electrical inspection the other day. 3- count them- 3 guys showed up in 3 separate vehicles.  These fucks all have pensions and contribute nearly fuck all to humanity. But they live large off of taxes.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:15 | 6776601 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Canada thinks it can live off oil exporting, who do they think they are, Russia ? At least the Russians can export jet fighters and don't rely on maple syrup for their second level exports

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:39 | 6776969 jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

Dude, maple syrup is hovering around $2500/barrel.

Oil is the second level export.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:30 | 6777229 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Our second biggest export is Molson beer...

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 22:22 | 6784953 Abbie Normal
Abbie Normal's picture

Molson is to Canadians like Budweiser is to Ameicans -- but who drinks it outside of the homeland?

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:15 | 6776602 adr
adr's picture

Maybe, just maybe people shouldn't have bet that $100 oil would last forever and went ahead and spent the next 40 years of revenue based on that price.

That's the problem with bubbles, people think the money is already in the bank.

$100 oil was a central bank speculation binge fantasy.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:29 | 6776647 Peak Finance
Peak Finance's picture

Your right ADR, but the 1,000,000 Peak Oil articles between 2005 and mid 2014 on every finance site had everyone thinking otherwise. 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:08 | 6776824 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

I'll note that the funding for oildrum.com dried up and the site disappeared immediately.  This all happened just before the price of oil collapsed and the Peak Oil TM lie was exposed in a way that could not be denied.

Except for Gail TverbergTM all of the Peak OilTM cranks have left this site.

Same for the nukuloor kooks and global warming phoneys.

All funded by the same criminals.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:09 | 6777108 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

But, But, the smartest guys in the room said it was going to 150$....

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:53 | 6777605 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

Since 1900 real oil and gas prices have gone consistently in one direction. Up. 

Only gold has done likewise, and not by nearly as much.

http://www.mining.com/160-year-study-of-real-commodity-prices-23066/

Canada's economic future is in oil. Everything else can be outsourced. 

That's why our betters love the House of Saud. The Saudis sell oil at a fraction of fair value in return for a pittance in military protection and immunity from international law.

When Saudi runs out---and it will, by 2030 at latest---oil will return to fair value. When it does most developed economies won't be able to function and still be able to pay Wall Street parasites a fortune in usury, or Uncle Sugar and his EU pals crushing taxes to finance huge armies and a lush welfare state for people too stupid or lazy to contribute to a modern economy. 

We're talking about a debt jubilee and a return to limited government, simply because there will no longer be a choice.

I hope to be there.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 14:04 | 6777947 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Niall

Beg to differ my friend.  Add up the costs of Middle East military adventures, and Saudi oil has a $25-$50/bbl U.S. subsidy.  Without the dumb U.S. taxpayer, the House of Saud couldn't defend a popcorn stand.

K

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:16 | 6776606 mijev
mijev's picture

real estate can be a wonderful investment but if you get stuck and you have to sell quickly, you're fucked and it's the worst feeling in the world. I've always sold a little too early but thankfully never too late and I haven't owned any real estate for the past 15 years. No regrets about that.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:17 | 6776609 Heavenlysunshine
Heavenlysunshine's picture

Here in Alberta the sun is still shining but, too bad, we now have the socialists (NDP) in power. Big budgetary deficits are on the way.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:47 | 6776719 Bopper09
Bopper09's picture

Come back to Sask, dude.  We've always been ridiculed until things like this happen.  Not that we're debt free, but just a fuck of a lot better off than anyone else in the country.  We'd be debt free if it weren't for the inter province giving , oops I mean 'sharing' program that gurantees the east western money.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:57 | 6777056 NeverForgetSilver
NeverForgetSilver's picture

It is a possibility. I am not born calgarian and will move when I need to. This communist NDP government will cause more harm than oil price. Albertans screwed up.

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 22:32 | 6784976 Abbie Normal
Abbie Normal's picture

40 years of the same "capitalist" party in power culminated in an IOU note in the rainy day fund.  So why would Albertans continue down that dead-end road and not try someone different?

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:17 | 6776611 Gold_Spot
Gold_Spot's picture

The rope is getting tighter around the US neck. Not that I wish bad things for the US people, but perhaps it is time to wake up and shoot the bastards in DC for fucking up the world as we knew it

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:21 | 6776621 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

"The Tree of Liberty must be refreshed with the blood of free men and tyrants from time to time." The hour draws near.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:47 | 6776718 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Funny, we're thinking along the same lines today. Just this monring, I thought, "we are way overdue for a revolution."

I don't know how long I'm willing to wait for the rest of my countrymen. In fact, I've already begun, not paying taxes for years. It's a start, but I really wanted to be out ahead of the curve on this one.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:28 | 6777220 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Revolutions don't happen on full bellies. That's why farming is subsidized.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:18 | 6777449 azusgm
azusgm's picture

The ones with the most energy looking for direction are being lied to. They think that life is unfair because of lack of social justice for blacks, LGBTQXYZ, and females. They don't understand that the ones who are their "friends" are the ones who are destroying their hope of succeeding through their own efforts. If the young ones were to rise up, they just might attack everyone and everything except their real enemies.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:15 | 6777437 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

This may be problematic, as there are plenty of tyrants, but few free men.

Almost everyone wants to get paid or laid.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:41 | 6776690 negative rates
negative rates's picture

It was actually cars and the leaders desires to be a driving society that put the noose around the country's necks.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:20 | 6776617 Panic Mode
Panic Mode's picture

I can't take countries serious when they keep banging on being 'moral highground'. The real moral highground is for a country to have no debt at all cost. Because when you are in debt, you are handcuffed and forced to act unmoral.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:42 | 6776693 unplugged
unplugged's picture

Debt is like a prison sentence. 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:32 | 6776659 ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

Well at least Calgary property owners can take solace in that there is less and less incentive for hoodlums to yank the copper from their empty buildings.

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 22:34 | 6784986 Abbie Normal
Abbie Normal's picture

What copper?  It's all pex and fiber optic these days.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:44 | 6776705 jstrack
jstrack's picture

In recessions in the USA, office vacancy rates increased into the 22% range depending upon city/location.  In real estate this happens.  There are boom and busts so to speak.  Then come the stories that we have 12 years or so supply and everything looks black.  Then the cycle changes and in five years the economy is doing well again and office vacancy rates are back down to 7% or 8%.  It may feel like the end of the world at the lowes, but its not.  Business, the economy and realestate have a cycle.  No reason to stick a country with permanent  low interest rates because of one deep cycle, but that is what the USA fed did and now we can't get out of it.  

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:46 | 6776715 Moonrajah
Moonrajah's picture

Newsquote from November 2016:

 

"It's a bloodbath. God only what will happen if we stop getting fresh water at least twice a week. I try not to let that penetrate my mind"

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:49 | 6776724 Deus Irate
Deus Irate's picture

"Ordinary" property rentiers are also getting squeezed. I know 2 people who own rental units in both Calgary and Fort Mac and both are now empty after the tenants broke the leases and ran back to the east coast to collect pogey. One owes a huge mortgage on the property and he will have to sell at a loss -- if he can sell it at all. Multiply that by 100,000 and it gets pandemic. All this pain for a failed policy of putting "pressure" on Moscow? We are ruled by brain-damaged sociopaths.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:22 | 6777475 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Empty buildings are places to house "refugees". You might not want to stir that soup or the "leaders" may come up with a new program, especially if the EU countries see the opportunity.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:50 | 6776727 22winmag
22winmag's picture

There should be more hookers and blow to puff up Canadian GDP numbers, not less.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:51 | 6776739 Omega_Man
Omega_Man's picture

Greedy Alberta... a bunch of farmers who discovered oil.. then acted all special for so many years... just the Jed Clampit. 

Real estate in Calgary is a joke... middle of no where.... anyone who paid big money there is a fool. It's like Saudi with cold weather and trees...we knew it wouldn't last

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:22 | 6776911 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

Ya, we still own our farms that are paid for and produce an income.

And we really don't care about downtown office space.

 

The death toll on Highway 63 has dropped too.

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 02:58 | 6780913 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

Lucky bastard.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 09:53 | 6776745 perkunas
perkunas's picture

The 16,000 new syrian refugees, will fix the problem for us.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:24 | 6777486 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Might work for a place to unload Gitmo.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 12:45 | 6777574 directaction
directaction's picture

Just close close that silly Cuban jail and mix the Gitmo inmates in with the Syrian "refugees." Who can tell the difference? 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:05 | 6776808 Kprime
Kprime's picture

"It is a bloodbath. We’re at the highest point of fear and uncertainty now."

soo wrong, sooo wishful thinking.  Just like the can kicking and the money printing goes on far far far longer than you can ever imagine, the fall to the bottom has only just begun. 

If you think you are at the highest point of fear and uncertainty, then you are not there.  Only when the tears and blood flood long enough that total despair and capitulation arrives will you mark a peak.  When everyone gives up trying to sublet and just defaults then you will have arrived.

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:35 | 6777250 ReligiousAtheist1
ReligiousAtheist1's picture

Excellent comment very true indeed

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:21 | 6776908 Zipper43
Zipper43's picture

Canada and Australia AAA stable. Less than a dozen in the world

USA AA+ stable. 

'nuff said!

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 11:24 | 6777196 madcows
madcows's picture

Canada and Australia are heavily dependent on natural resource exports... and the world economy is in the tank.  So, their GDP's will be down, but they're debt isn't so bad.  AAA seems ok to me.

US... with the world doing QE and financializing everything?!  That's triple plus good for us.  We're the kings of financialization.  The world is our printing press!

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 13:36 | 6777802 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

USA was AAA until Lord Progress ascended the throne. Now that you have Mini Me in charge plus a boiling cauldron of fresh shit soup on the stove, we'll see how long that lasts.

But the truth is that any breach in the levee in any one of the Big Three or Four will flood the entire valley sooner or later. 

Wed, 11/11/2015 - 10:26 | 6776923 silverer
silverer's picture

Very few governments or countries have a no-touch rainy day fund.  It's my opinion that it's a good thing to have, and something that you don't touch unless it becomes absolutely necessary.  And then, only if a plan is in place to replenish it after the emergency is over.  Otherwise it ends up gone and you repeat the mistake of continuing to slip into deeper and deeper debt.  I always looked at debt as a temporary situation.  You pay it back as soon as possible, come up to level, and start saving again.  The government works the plan a bit differently, unfortunately.

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