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"Sell Mortimer": Stocks Tumble Most In 6 Weeks, Back To Red For 2015
Given this...
And the fact that The Dow is down over 500 points from last week's highs...
We suspect the message to Fed Speakers from "the bulls" is...
Or this...
The biggest issues today were the collapse in credit, crude, and copper; but stock weakness dragged the S&P 500 into negative territory for the year...
On the day, Fed speak dragged us lower along with carnage in copper, crude and credit but towards the close USDJPY snapped and EURUSD broke 1.08 and seemed to extend the losses in stocks...
Biotechs broke below the 50DMA...
VRX closed at the lows of the day...
VXX surged...
And erased all the gains post-Payrolls (so good news is bad news after all)... with the S&P leading the way...
And Bonds are now outperforming post-payrolls...
Crude's carnage is starting to wake up Dow Transports traders (again!!!)...
Today saw HY Credit spreads widen over 15bps - the biggest jump (for a non-roll day) since Dec 2014...
And stocks are catching down to credit...
Bonds & Stocks appear to be recoupling...
FX markets were noisy but the main message wqas dumping dollars...
And notice EURUSD tested up to 1.08 twice and broke 3rd time...
Commodities were big news today...
First gold crashed to 2010 lows, before spiking back higher...
Then crude crumbled to the late-August lows...
And Copper continues to get clubbed...7th down day in a row...having tagged perfectly the 50DMA before plunging
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: What Happens Next-er?
Bonus Bonus Chart: What Happens Next-er?
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This means risk on right?
It's always risk on until one day it isn't.
It's starting to smell like that day is near.
Demand destruction is alive and well and moving like a tsunami starting long ago in rich, developed nations and now starting to inundate places like China, Brazil, etc. Peak global yoy population growth took place in 1988 and has been decelerating since but worse from a growth standpoint, population growth has shifted to the poorest and oldest...folks without income, savings, or credit and thus they are not driving much increase in demand. Peak yoy credit growth has also likely come and gone with only the debt hangover and massive overcapicity left...and global peak oil consumption is right around here somewhere but unfortunately ZIRP has incented massive overcapacity in oil (and so much else). Demand destruction will swamp nearly everything.
Check the data and you'll see huge demand destruction in oil consumption among nearly 100% of the OECD developed nations...some by as much as 25% from peak but on average down about 10% over the last decade. Oil, copper, lumber...these are the best economic indicators...and they are about to fall off the table.
And China is likely to shock to the world in 2015 or 2016 by consuming less oil yoy...the nation responsible for 50%+ of all global consumption growth since '07 has likely peaked and will begin decades long decline just like Japan, US, EU, etc,
http://bit.ly/1KPFI4H
http://bit.ly/1Q8QftS
And here is the CNBC summary:
"Stocks close down 1% as oil slides"One percent?? WTF?
LIES! LIES! LIES!
Seems like they are recycling the script from August. The fed is playing peekaboo with the rate hike narrative and the "market" is either crying or laughing accordingly.
Good times.
Are there any short sellers stilll ou there. Good luck. It's fixed.
Thanks Ham-bone, always enjoy reading your posts.
seconded
Rope and trees for the MF's
So that's why the forests are disappearing and hemp is illegal...the bastards saw it coming.
That's ok, plenty of wood chippers out there. And tires and gasoline. And knives, axes, machetes...
The only day it's near is when what the fed says doesn't matter.
Been saying that for how many years now?
102
Yay! The barfing clown is back!
Would love to see 'deer in headlights' in the near future.
Markets have to rally or Black Friday will be a bust. Old Yeller cannot allow that
At least the art market is doing fine!
http://static0.hln.be/static/photo/2015/3/8/7/20151112191935/media_xll_8...
65 MILLION EURO'S FOR A CHALKBOARD!!
let's hope the cleaning lady never cleans it...
made by Cy Twombly... whoever the fuck that is...
Actually like Cy Twomblys stuff.
Not that I think its worth 65 million...I mean for the people buying it, thats probably how much thy make or lose every minute so w/e and who cares.
Chef Yellen and her team of prep boys will be up all night working on the proper presentation of tomorrows word salad.
Fed / K street / Wall St. success is main street failure...oh well, so long as I get mine attitude prevails.
http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/11/interest-rate-cycles-in-review-are-we.html
Wait....last 2 years at least Black Friday has been a huge retail sales flop, so what's different about this year?
I dunno...it'll be more floppier?
I'm glad gold isn't being manipulated!
Black lives matter.
Black Friday Markets Matter
Do you want to run JooWorldOrder.exe? (Y/N)
So much for that central bank funded dead cat bounce.. August low in 3,2,1...
2013 lows is more like it.
It will be a long year until the election if the Fed wants to stay out of politics lol.
MSM on in the background.
CNBC and Bloomberg should just teach some parrots to say, "Bawk, buy the dip, buy the dip; bawk!"
I think the S&P chart is looking more like 2007.
The South was right!
We better hunker down . Yanky s don't like it when we are right
Might have to go full Kuroda pretty soon.
Shorted IWM via TZA down to 50DMA, and par usual algos make it hell on any big down day, taking 4 hours to move decisively then giving you 2 min to take profits near the lows. Also, holding that last hour till the close gave you only 7c above the highs of the 3:00 TZA bar where I got out, but would have forced you to endure a 40c drawdown.
Interesting (i.e., annoying) that, given how stairstep distribution algos work, pure cash daytraders can make twice as much on any similar 250pt Dow up day, or even a boring day that falls 70 pts then ramps to even, than on a 2.0% IWM plunge like today, often long before 2:00, given the required caution against sudden VWAP ramps from horizontal mornings. As always, the key is to realize “they’re” in control, keep stops enough above highs of day to avoid getting taken out (yet protect against famous 5-min RUT Unch ramps) don’t expect anything big till after 1:00, and don’t get impatient or frustrated …
Hope BTFD'ers are enjoying the ride down, and they thot the ride up was fast......
Get some Dramamine, it works great.
The Talking Fed
Almost like the Yuan deval and Draghi jawboning were about to make things come really unglued and they had to pop EURUSD back to life to stick save for the day . . . . . . . . . nope, they would never do something like that.
DB a penny off the 52 week low. It's "cheap" AND it yields over 3%.
If you think it's cheap NOW, you're REALLY gonna like it in a few weeks!
When Evans shows his nug you know it's time to buy.
What a circus.
One Fed official says it's time to raise rates, then a bit later some other Fed head says keep them at 0% or go negative.
Then Hilsenrath from the WSJ chines in and says the Fed told me... Market goes up or down based on what the Fed says.
The August fall in stocks was an omen to the coming collapse. It was the "smart money", the insiders, getting the fuck out of the markets. Then they gave it one final pump and told their clients to BTFD.
The shitshow is about to end.
Buy silver.
It was actually just a reaction to SPX completing a Butterfly Pattern at 1.618 X the drop from 1576 to 666 between 2007 and 2007.
Everything that's happened since then was scripted, and the rally off the Aug 24 lows was all about the yen carry trade and CL-driven algos.
http://pebblewriter.com/the-last-big-butterfly/
Truly. The meltup since August 24th was the 'chance to sell' moment.
"The Dow is down over 500 points from last week's highs..."
Another 5000 might get the Doom Ball rolling...
Here is a fitting message to Chairsatan Yellen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pt2uIYbEYjg
all green by end of day Friday..just in time for the weekend
and i'm a doomist
seen this game played so many times before to predict otherwise
Friday the 13th has to be good luck for markets.
It was an impressive drop only in that it was finally allowed to happen -- 8 sessions after completion of a Bat Pattern at the 88.6% retracement of the drop from 2134 to 1867. http://pebblewriter.com/learn/harmonics/bat-pattern/
As for the 70-pt drop, I enjoy making money on the short side as much as the next guy. But, it's hard to get all that excited just yet. SPX hasn't even reached the .618 Fib yet -- a garden variety reversal for such harmonic patterns.
For technical analysis doubters out there, this one was easy to call back on Nov 2. And, it was just as scripted as the rally off the Sep 29 lows.
http://pebblewriter.com/beware-the-bat/
If you actully trade based on simplistic harmonic patterns that you falsely ascribe to NOISE (AKA HFTS n BIG MONEY) you are absolutely retarded.
That is the surest way to lose money.
Sometimes I feel as if everybody forgot to read Reminisces of a Stock Operator and the basic lessons it teaches.
I read it years ago - great read, with some terrific lessons.
When I first learned about harmonics in 2011, I was skeptical, too. But, I became a believer after using them to accurately forecast:
I also used them to forecast the July-Aug 2011 correction to the day and the dollar (http://pebblewriter.com/learn/analogs/)
The problem, lately, is that the HFTs and central banks know about them too. And, ever since late 2013, they've been using these patterns in a predatory manner to catch unwary traders on the wrong side of trades. It's been much harder to make money. Fortunately, there are other techniques with which to augment them.
Regardless, you're still better off knowing where substantial reversals are due. If it works out - great. If it doesn't, at least you won't be surprised when the "market" takes off like a bat out of hell (traders covering their failed bets.)
Look, I don't really care whether or not you believe in harmonics. But you shouldn't bash something without at least examining how it's been working for many years. Harmonics aren't perfect, but IMO, they're very, very helpful -- even in the midst of full-on manipulation.
Take a look at SPX since 2007. It's pretty obvious that SPX reacted at key Fib levels - particularly when completing a harmonic pattern. The chart's available here:
http://pebblewriter.com/the-big-picture-nov-12-2015/
Janet "Yelling into the wind"..we have an emergency brewing...do something..we all know that a .25% interest rate hike is going to cause the stock markets to crash around the globe...guess there is only one answer...if you raise rates the market tanks..if you lower rates...who knows where the stock market will top... Janet..I know we can trust you...deep down you not only wanted to be the FED chairwomen...but secretly you want to be Santa Claus...so hook up those reindeer and spread some good cheer this holiday season...
Sheeit, all they need to do is helicopter drop some mooey into my TD Ameritrade account, I will buy all kinds of stuff!
if everything is being sold off, where is the money going...mattresses?
It usually only takes one Fed head/casino owner to say 'no more free drinks' to empty the place out, not three or four.
Anything to keep the fantasy of a 'growing' (laughs) economy and low (a lot more laughs) unemployment alive.
Lower stock prices are not what we were told to expect. Market action over the past month sent us a clear message in the form of relieving us of all our money. Message received. Fundamentals don't matter. All news is good news. Thou shalt not oppose a Fed manipulated market. Got it. Strategy revised. Shorting set aside. Wounds licked. Ready for all time highs.
So where's our validation? Where's our unrelenting upward price march? On holiday? Why does the day chart not look so sunny? Where is our clear channel to all time highs? Is the escalator broken or something? Will it be repaired and operational again soon, because this is unnerving.
Oh great gods of central planning who control our entire life savings in the palms of your hands, give us a sign that you are still there calmly forcing stock prices perpetually higher securing our well-being. Let us be reassured and we will resume BTFD in tribute to your awesome power.
Get on the phone, there's got to be somebody who wants to borrow a few $100 million to buy their stock. Sell it , goddammit. How hard can it be? They get free money, stockholders love 'em and they get a bonus.
'Markets red for the year'....LOL merry Xmas you filthy animals!
It'll be up 700 next week.
why can't it be a 2000 drop???? this stinks ;(
Hambone said:
agreed, Ham-bone...Chinese population growth is stalling and starting to fall (albeit at a tiny percentage) but my gut-feeling is that China is more than a decade or two away from anything like the Japanese-style demographic trap. The end of the one child policy recently announced is significant. Also -- and most importantly -- the affluence (and consumption potential) of the average Chinese is rising. Quoting simple population trend stats is simplistic...its the rising capacity and desire to SPEND of the population that counts. Also, the cities in China have progressed remarkably in the last 2 decades but the country-side is still relatively backward and under-developed.
According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
https://app.box.com/s/hbi4jvlre5zr4f0oowkijy91p29b26xj
Coming Soon: When Janet Met Mario
Strategically: BofAML base case = “deflationary expansion”; slow, jerky transition to higher growth/higher rates, led by the US, China soft landing; AA = long US dollar, long volatility, long real estate, long stocks/short bonds, UW EM, commodities; higher conviction requires unambiguous Q3 trough in GDP & profits, XLF>$26 & ADXY>110.
Tactically: “sellers into strength” as our trading rules flip from “buy” to “neutral” & Fed hike approaches…December could be the first time since May’94 (a year of bond crashes, defaults & most intriguingly, a weak US$), that investors experience a Fed rate hike & a European rate cut in the same month (see Chart 1).
QE Jenga
The “tail risks” to “deflationary expansion” are high. Like a game of Jenga, a bull market built by central banks can collapse if further BoJ/ECB QE and Fed hikes engender US dollar spikes & US EPS & EM/commodity swoons, FX-wars & volatility rather than a fullblown recovery. Gold & volatility are the natural hedges to the bearish scenario of “Quantitative Failure.”
The Ultimate Inequality
Alternatively, a world dominated by (ineffectual) QE, technological disruption & inequality could cause excess 2016 valuations in “uber growth” (tech, CA real estate, “unicorns”), a rally in “uber value” & a “pop” in “yield” & “shadow banking” as rates belatedly rise to curb Wall Street excesses. As in 1998/99, we think a bold “über-barbell” would outperform in this environment.
...............
Confidence in Quantitative Success for the economy is nonetheless low. Economic growth remains constrained by the deflationary structural factors of Debt, Disruption, Demographics, Regulation, and buffeted by the cyclical event risks of Credit, China, Commodities.
Central banks are easing because global growth is weak. Global profits are down 4% since February. Even the US has struggled: payroll growth has decelerated and the latest US GDP growth rate was a pitiful 1.5% in Q3. And the level of US inventories is unambiguously recessionary (see Chart 3).
What changes this narrative? What signals Q3 was the trough for macro expectations? What causes a market sell-off in bonds in November? Strong October data & market validation of a higher rates/higher growth scenario in coming quarters:
• China PMI>50.5
• US ISM>52
• US payroll>225K
• US banks rally: XLF>$26 would confirm stronger “domestic demand” expectations.
• US dollar stable: if the Fed can hike without boosting dollar this is positive; DXY must not breach 100; a rally in ADXY (Asia FX index) above 110 crucial as this would erase the apocalyptic view of China growth prospects