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"What We've Got Here Is A Failure To Communicate"
The Fed goes 6 for 6 today as Bullard, Yellen,Lacker, Evans, Dudley, and Fischer (respectively) all manage to jawbone a looming rate hike without any confirmation of the "well everything must be awesome" meme to satisfy increasingly doubtful stock market worshippers...
Summarized...
- *BULLARD: NO REASON TO CONTINUE EXPERIMENT WITH `EXTREME' POLICY
- *BULLARD WANTS TO RETURN TO 1984-2007 U.S. MACROECONOMIC SETTING
- *YELLEN: MUST BE MINDFUL OF NEW POLICY TRANSMISSION CHANNELS
- *YELLEN DOESN'T DISCUSS OUTLOOK FOR FED POLICY, ECONOMY IN TEXT
- *LACKER SAYS NOT SURPRISED BY `POPULIST ANGER' AGAINST FED
- *LACKER SAYS `PLAUSIBLE' QE HAD SCANT REAL EFFECTS ON ECONOMY
- *EVANS SAYS U.S. FUNDAMENTALS LOOK `PRETTY GOOD' AT THE MOMENT
- *EVANS: TIMING OF FED LIFTOFF LESS IMPORTANT THAN RATE PATH
- *EVANS FAVORS `SOMEWHAT LATER LIFTOFF' THAN MANY FED COLLEAGUES
- *EVANS SEEKS SLOWER RATE-RISE PATH THAN 25 BPS EVERY OTHER MTG
- *DUDLEY: IT'S POSSIBLE LIFTOFF CONDITIONS MAY SOON BE SATISFIED
- *DUDLEY: RISKS OF MOVING TOO FAST VS TOO SLOWLY NEARLY BALANCED
- *FISCHER: U.S. ECONOMY WEATHERING HEADWINDS FROM STRONGER DOLLAR
- *FISCHER: OCT. FOMC SIGNALED DEC. RATE RISE MAY BE APPROPRIATE
By the close, December rate hike odds had actually dropped very modestly to 66.0%. If these guys can't 'communicate' with one another, then how are investors (and algorithms) supposed to understand what they are doing?
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No fucking shit. Knock me over with a feather.
Fuck the stawks and Chinese all at the same time. Gotta love it. Breed to fuck over humanity.
*DUDLEY: IT'S POSSIBLE LIFTOFF CONDITIONS MAY SOON BE SATISFIED
And presumably just as POSSIBLE that it may not? Thanks for the clarity.
These jokers have learned that a selloff with shorting followed by a strong short squeeze takes the market higher than the original starting point. For the last few days we've seen a selloff. I wonder what comes next?
Let's get this straight. What we have here is a FAY-uh to Come-MYOON-cate
*DUDLEY: IT'S POSSIBLE LIFTOFF CONDITIONS MAY SOON BE SATISFIED
as will our rectums
LACKER SAYS `PLAUSIBLE' QE HAD SCANT REAL EFFECTS ON ECONOMY
I dream of getting a Phd in economics so I could attain this level of insight, it just seems so impossibly out of reach with my current knowledge ( /stares wistfully at an image off Lacker with chin cupped in hands)
Well the Banks are all set now as the Fed has bought (at ridiculous high prices) all the stinking bonds, loans, MBS etc off of their balance sheets. So lets start running a real Fed policy now... whaddya think?
Last year of Presidential cycles the banksters always ring a silent bell. It will save the USD for another 5 years and fend off Russia and China militarily.
Equity market will get fecked as will bonds. It will do wonders for racial crime in the US cities as well.
BANKLIVESMATTER !
Economists are advisers, not traders on their understandings, people with skin in the game.
When economists can predict any statistic further in the future the the weatherman can predict the weather with better accuracy, I will maybe listen to their babbling.
The Bernank pushed everyone into stawks and now old Yeller and crew is going to destroy them. I only hope that the anger gets directed at the right people.
Now, now ... anyone who *listened* to The Bernank has probably tripled their money. And it's not like Old Yeller hasn't given everyone fair notice, as if she's finally gonna do something. As a matter of "fact", if you believe she's gonna, and it's gonna have an effect, buy some puts or something now, and maybe Brad Pitt will play you in the movie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWr8hbUkG9s
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/
Just a small point of interest (to some) - tomorrow is Friday the 13th.
"Failure" NOT "a failure".
We've had a Houston, there is a problem here.
MUST BE MINDFUL OF NEW POLICY TRANSMISSION CHANNELS
What kind of stroke induced gibberish is this shit???
Are the aliens landing and we need to tune into their wavelength...?
"The Fed goes 6 for 6 today"
Coordinated lyin' and stealin'. What else is new?
What we've got here is just plain fraud, and apologists for it. Looking at you, un-Federal no-Reserve Board, servant of the foreign directed MIC.
Is that before or after he got smacked in the head with a shovel?
???
They are communicating...
1. The same message over and over. They want to take the markets down easy.
2. That they are scared as shit. And they want out of their pre-dick-ament.
3. And at least Bullard identifies returning to macroeconomic normalcy of pre-2008. Which also means selling Trillions in U.S. Treasuries.
A .25 pt. rate hike would be nothing compared to that move.
The other obvious questions are what happens to China, the EMs and the trillion dollar carry trades?
Happens? WWIII as all the players and lines have been set. There is no easing or un-tapering of a ponzi...this bitch is fixing to implode and the only game left is war. Fuck nirp, that wont happen in the ussa. There will be some false flag right before the main show.
I will back you on #2 and the interest rate derivative mess that will ensue any increase.
What they said is roughly translated to in my opinion something like this:
We have prepared and anyone we care about or matters has prepared so now we're going to pull the air out of the room so if you matter, again, now it would be a good time to put your breathing aparatus of choice on as those who don't have them are going to be shit out of luck realtively soon.
Thanks for your support.
P.S.
Free toasters to the first 100 depositors after the rate hike.
Hugs...
The F.E.D
If you let debt pile up with so much of it denominated in dollars as it is and then you pull the plug the resulting crap storm should surprise no one but I bet you that in fact they will claim no one could have seen it comming.
Just think of those long forgotten,,CD rates people'!
Strawberry Fields Forever
Now is the time to cut even closer to the bone.
Chili is good. Make a big pot. All spiced up, chili is just as satisfying as the customary big pot of boiled potatoes.
When I can buy heads of lettuce for a buck, I make large salads, finely cut, to bring out the flavors.
Man is able to get by on a very limited diet. The best diet is varied, but based on readily available cheap staples.
A diet high in fruit (fructose) encourages arthritus, which is bad news and leads to a debilitating decline very quickly.
Shop the whole-food sale items, not processed foods. That's all crap. You're just throwing your money away on processed foods.
Kale can cause a torent of kidney stones. I almost died eating kale, twice. And then I figured it out. Don't even think of experimenting with kale.
sugar, addicts first choice to die early...
It is so very clear today, these little scumbag thiefs, only know how to lie.
This inter webby thing has made them unable to hide.
I am not saying it should be done, nor am I in any way advocating violence, but I will make a picnic basket and take the kids when we get around to hanging these fucks.
According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
https://app.box.com/s/hbi4jvlre5zr4f0oowkijy91p29b26xj
Coming Soon: When Janet Met Mario
Strategically: BofAML base case = “deflationary expansion”; slow, jerky transition to higher growth/higher rates, led by the US, China soft landing; AA = long US dollar, long volatility, long real estate, long stocks/short bonds, UW EM, commodities; higher conviction requires unambiguous Q3 trough in GDP & profits, XLF>$26 & ADXY>110.
Tactically: “sellers into strength” as our trading rules flip from “buy” to “neutral” & Fed hike approaches…December could be the first time since May’94 (a year of bond crashes, defaults & most intriguingly, a weak US$), that investors experience a Fed rate hike & a European rate cut in the same month (see Chart 1).
QE Jenga
The “tail risks” to “deflationary expansion” are high. Like a game of Jenga, a bull market built by central banks can collapse if further BoJ/ECB QE and Fed hikes engender US dollar spikes & US EPS & EM/commodity swoons, FX-wars & volatility rather than a fullblown recovery. Gold & volatility are the natural hedges to the bearish scenario of “Quantitative Failure.”
The Ultimate Inequality
Alternatively, a world dominated by (ineffectual) QE, technological disruption & inequality could cause excess 2016 valuations in “uber growth” (tech, CA real estate, “unicorns”), a rally in “uber value” & a “pop” in “yield” & “shadow banking” as rates belatedly rise to curb Wall Street excesses. As in 1998/99, we think a bold “über-barbell” would outperform in this environment.
...............
Confidence in Quantitative Success for the economy is nonetheless low. Economic growth remains constrained by the deflationary structural factors of Debt, Disruption, Demographics, Regulation, and buffeted by the cyclical event risks of Credit, China, Commodities.
Central banks are easing because global growth is weak. Global profits are down 4% since February. Even the US has struggled: payroll growth has decelerated and the latest US GDP growth rate was a pitiful 1.5% in Q3. And the level of US inventories is unambiguously recessionary (see Chart 3).
What changes this narrative? What signals Q3 was the trough for macro expectations? What causes a market sell-off in bonds in November? Strong October data & market validation of a higher rates/higher growth scenario in coming quarters:
• China PMI>50.5
• US ISM>52
• US payroll>225K
• US banks rally: XLF>$26 would confirm stronger “domestic demand” expectations.
• US dollar stable: if the Fed can hike without boosting dollar this is positive; DXY must not breach 100; a rally in ADXY (Asia FX index) above 110 crucial as this would erase the apocalyptic view of China growth prospects
I'm sick and tired of hearing all these Fed representatives openly mouthing off and basically talking a continual line of bullshit.Someone needs to tell them all just to keep their goddamn traps shut.Treasury where are you?
what part of deflation doesn't a growth modeled policy saturated with debt, understand?
1/4 pt, ha-fucking 25 basis pts. get real?
All this is meaningless. Whether or not they raise is completely dependent on the stock market performance in the trading days leading up to the meeting. (their actual #1 mandate is the stability of a rising stock market).
It's the "Board who cried rate hike" parable all over again.