This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

"What We've Got Here Is A Failure To Communicate"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The Fed goes 6 for 6 today as Bullard, Yellen,Lacker, Evans, Dudley, and Fischer (respectively) all manage to jawbone a looming rate hike without any confirmation of the "well everything must be awesome" meme to satisfy increasingly doubtful stock market worshippers...

 

 

 

Summarized...

  • *BULLARD: NO REASON TO CONTINUE EXPERIMENT WITH `EXTREME' POLICY
  • *BULLARD WANTS TO RETURN TO 1984-2007 U.S. MACROECONOMIC SETTING
  • *YELLEN: MUST BE MINDFUL OF NEW POLICY TRANSMISSION CHANNELS
  • *YELLEN DOESN'T DISCUSS OUTLOOK FOR FED POLICY, ECONOMY IN TEXT
  • *LACKER SAYS NOT SURPRISED BY `POPULIST ANGER' AGAINST FED
  • *LACKER SAYS `PLAUSIBLE' QE HAD SCANT REAL EFFECTS ON ECONOMY
  • *EVANS SAYS U.S. FUNDAMENTALS LOOK `PRETTY GOOD' AT THE MOMENT
  • *EVANS: TIMING OF FED LIFTOFF LESS IMPORTANT THAN RATE PATH
  • *EVANS FAVORS `SOMEWHAT LATER LIFTOFF' THAN MANY FED COLLEAGUES
  • *EVANS SEEKS SLOWER RATE-RISE PATH THAN 25 BPS EVERY OTHER MTG
  • *DUDLEY: IT'S POSSIBLE LIFTOFF CONDITIONS MAY SOON BE SATISFIED
  • *DUDLEY: RISKS OF MOVING TOO FAST VS TOO SLOWLY NEARLY BALANCED
  • *FISCHER: U.S. ECONOMY WEATHERING HEADWINDS FROM STRONGER DOLLAR
  • *FISCHER: OCT. FOMC SIGNALED DEC. RATE RISE MAY BE APPROPRIATE

By the close, December rate hike odds had actually dropped very modestly to 66.0%. If these guys can't 'communicate' with one another, then how are investors (and algorithms) supposed to understand what they are doing?

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 11/12/2015 - 22:39 | 6785002 Mark Mywords
Mark Mywords's picture
  • *LACKER SAYS `PLAUSIBLE' QE HAD SCANT REAL EFFECTS ON ECONOMY

No fucking shit. Knock me over with a feather.

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 22:52 | 6785031 Money Counterfeiter
Money Counterfeiter's picture

Fuck the stawks and Chinese all at the same time.  Gotta love it.  Breed to fuck over humanity.

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 22:57 | 6785049 philipat
philipat's picture

*DUDLEY: IT'S POSSIBLE LIFTOFF CONDITIONS MAY SOON BE SATISFIED

And presumably just as POSSIBLE that it may not? Thanks for the clarity.

Fri, 11/13/2015 - 00:01 | 6785211 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

These jokers have learned that a selloff with shorting followed by a strong short squeeze takes the market higher than the original starting point. For the last few days we've seen a selloff. I wonder what comes next?

Fri, 11/13/2015 - 03:18 | 6785536 California Nigh...
California Nightmares's picture

Let's get this straight. What we have here is a FAY-uh to Come-MYOON-cate 

Fri, 11/13/2015 - 07:43 | 6785735 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

*DUDLEY: IT'S POSSIBLE LIFTOFF CONDITIONS MAY SOON BE SATISFIED

 

as will our rectums

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 22:57 | 6785047 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

LACKER SAYS `PLAUSIBLE' QE HAD SCANT REAL EFFECTS ON ECONOMY

I dream of getting a Phd in economics so I could attain this level of insight, it just seems so impossibly out of reach with my current knowledge ( /stares wistfully at an image off Lacker with chin cupped in hands)

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 22:45 | 6785015 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Well the Banks are all set now as the Fed has bought (at ridiculous high prices) all the stinking bonds, loans, MBS etc off of their balance sheets. So lets start running a real Fed policy now... whaddya think?

Last year of Presidential cycles the banksters always ring a silent bell. It will save the USD for another 5 years and fend off Russia and China militarily.

Equity market will get fecked as will bonds. It will do wonders for  racial crime in the US cities as well.

BANKLIVESMATTER ! 

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 22:47 | 6785019 Demdere
Demdere's picture

Economists are advisers, not traders on their understandings, people with skin in the game.

When economists can predict any statistic further in the future the the weatherman can predict the weather with better accuracy, I will maybe listen to their babbling.

 

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 22:47 | 6785024 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The Bernank pushed everyone into stawks and now old Yeller and crew is going to destroy them. I only hope that the anger gets directed at the right people.

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 23:04 | 6785061 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Now, now ... anyone who *listened* to The Bernank has probably tripled their money.  And it's not like Old Yeller hasn't given everyone fair notice, as if she's finally gonna do something.  As a matter of "fact", if you believe she's gonna, and it's gonna have an effect, buy some puts or something now, and maybe Brad Pitt will play you in the movie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWr8hbUkG9s

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 22:50 | 6785028 CHoward
CHoward's picture

Just a small point of interest (to some) - tomorrow is Friday the 13th. 

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 22:57 | 6785046 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

"Failure" NOT "a failure".

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 23:09 | 6785075 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

We've had a Houston, there is a problem here.

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 23:09 | 6785070 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

MUST BE MINDFUL OF NEW POLICY TRANSMISSION CHANNELS

What kind of stroke induced gibberish is this shit???
Are the aliens landing and we need to tune into their wavelength...?

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 23:16 | 6785080 GRDguy
GRDguy's picture

"The Fed goes 6 for 6 today"

Coordinated lyin' and stealin'.  What else is new?

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 23:16 | 6785092 V for ...
V for ...'s picture

What we've got here is just plain fraud, and apologists for it. Looking at you, un-Federal no-Reserve Board, servant of the foreign directed MIC.

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 23:16 | 6785095 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Is that before or after he got smacked in the head with a shovel?

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 23:20 | 6785097 Insurrexion
Insurrexion's picture

???

 

They are communicating...

1. The same message over and over. They want to take the markets down easy.

2. That they are scared as shit. And they want out of their pre-dick-ament.

3. And at least Bullard identifies returning to macroeconomic normalcy of pre-2008. Which also means selling Trillions in U.S. Treasuries.

A .25 pt. rate hike would be nothing compared to that move. 

The other obvious questions are what happens to China, the EMs and the trillion dollar carry trades?

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 23:28 | 6785123 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

Happens? WWIII as all the players and lines have been set. There is no easing or un-tapering of a ponzi...this bitch is fixing to implode and the only game left is war. Fuck nirp, that wont happen in the ussa. There will be some false flag right before the main show.

Fri, 11/13/2015 - 07:48 | 6785747 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

I will back you on #2 and the interest rate derivative mess that will ensue any increase.

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 23:32 | 6785134 conraddobler
conraddobler's picture

What they said is roughly translated to in my opinion something like this:

We have prepared and anyone we care about or matters has prepared so now we're going to pull the air out of the room so if you matter, again, now it would be a good time to put your breathing aparatus of choice on as those who don't have them are going to be shit out of luck realtively soon.

Thanks for your support.

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 23:33 | 6785135 conraddobler
conraddobler's picture

P.S. 

Free toasters to the first 100 depositors after the rate hike.  

Hugs...

The F.E.D

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 23:34 | 6785141 conraddobler
conraddobler's picture

If you let debt pile up with so much of it denominated in dollars as it is and then you pull the plug the resulting crap storm should surprise no one but I bet you that in fact they will claim no one could have seen it comming.

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 23:49 | 6785182 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Just think of those long forgotten,,CD rates people'!

Thu, 11/12/2015 - 23:55 | 6785194 ipud
ipud's picture

Strawberry Fields Forever

Fri, 11/13/2015 - 00:21 | 6785279 Give up. Realit...
Give up. Reality is not scientific nor even mathematical.'s picture

Now is the time to cut even closer to the bone.

Chili is good.  Make a big pot.  All spiced up, chili is just as satisfying as the customary big pot of boiled potatoes.

When I can buy heads of lettuce for a buck, I make large salads, finely cut, to bring out the flavors.

Man is able to get by on a very limited diet.  The best diet is varied, but based on readily available cheap staples.

A diet high in fruit (fructose) encourages arthritus, which is bad news and leads to a debilitating decline very quickly.

Shop the whole-food sale items, not processed foods.  That's all crap.  You're just throwing your money away on processed foods.

Kale can cause a torent of kidney stones.  I almost died eating kale, twice.  And then I figured it out.  Don't even think of experimenting with kale.

Fri, 11/13/2015 - 08:13 | 6785781 new game
new game's picture

sugar, addicts first choice to die early...

Fri, 11/13/2015 - 01:23 | 6785376 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

It is so very clear today, these little scumbag thiefs, only know how to lie.

This inter webby thing has made them unable to hide.

I am not saying it should be done, nor am I in any way advocating violence, but I will make a picnic basket and take the kids when we get around to hanging these fucks.

Fri, 11/13/2015 - 04:58 | 6785621 polo007
polo007's picture

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch:

https://app.box.com/s/hbi4jvlre5zr4f0oowkijy91p29b26xj

Coming Soon: When Janet Met Mario

Strategically: BofAML base case = “deflationary expansion”; slow, jerky transition to higher growth/higher rates, led by the US, China soft landing; AA = long US dollar, long volatility, long real estate, long stocks/short bonds, UW EM, commodities; higher conviction requires unambiguous Q3 trough in GDP & profits, XLF>$26 & ADXY>110.

Tactically: “sellers into strength” as our trading rules flip from “buy” to “neutral” & Fed hike approaches…December could be the first time since May’94 (a year of bond crashes, defaults & most intriguingly, a weak US$), that investors experience a Fed rate hike & a European rate cut in the same month (see Chart 1).

QE Jenga

The “tail risks” to “deflationary expansion” are high. Like a game of Jenga, a bull market built by central banks can collapse if further BoJ/ECB QE and Fed hikes engender US dollar spikes & US EPS & EM/commodity swoons, FX-wars & volatility rather than a fullblown recovery. Gold & volatility are the natural hedges to the bearish scenario of “Quantitative Failure.”

The Ultimate Inequality

Alternatively, a world dominated by (ineffectual) QE, technological disruption & inequality could cause excess 2016 valuations in “uber growth” (tech, CA real estate, “unicorns”), a rally in “uber value” & a “pop” in “yield” & “shadow banking” as rates belatedly rise to curb Wall Street excesses. As in 1998/99, we think a bold “über-barbell” would outperform in this environment.

...............

Confidence in Quantitative Success for the economy is nonetheless low. Economic growth remains constrained by the deflationary structural factors of Debt, Disruption, Demographics, Regulation, and buffeted by the cyclical event risks of Credit, China, Commodities.

Central banks are easing because global growth is weak. Global profits are down 4% since February. Even the US has struggled: payroll growth has decelerated and the latest US GDP growth rate was a pitiful 1.5% in Q3. And the level of US inventories is unambiguously recessionary (see Chart 3).

What changes this narrative? What signals Q3 was the trough for macro expectations? What causes a market sell-off in bonds in November? Strong October data & market validation of a higher rates/higher growth scenario in coming quarters:

• China PMI>50.5

• US ISM>52

• US payroll>225K

• US banks rally: XLF>$26 would confirm stronger “domestic demand” expectations.

• US dollar stable: if the Fed can hike without boosting dollar this is positive; DXY must not breach 100; a rally in ADXY (Asia FX index) above 110 crucial as this would erase the apocalyptic view of China growth prospects

Fri, 11/13/2015 - 07:40 | 6785734 Herdee
Herdee's picture

I'm sick and tired of hearing all these Fed representatives openly mouthing off and basically talking a continual line of bullshit.Someone needs to tell them all just to keep their goddamn traps shut.Treasury where are you?

Fri, 11/13/2015 - 08:16 | 6785790 new game
new game's picture

what part of deflation doesn't a growth modeled policy saturated with debt, understand?

1/4 pt, ha-fucking 25 basis pts. get real?

Fri, 11/13/2015 - 09:09 | 6785916 Not if_ But When
Not if_ But When's picture

All this is meaningless.  Whether or not they raise is completely dependent on the stock market performance in the trading days leading up to the meeting.  (their actual #1 mandate is the stability of a rising stock market).

Fri, 11/13/2015 - 09:26 | 6785979 Sanity Bear
Sanity Bear's picture

It's the "Board who cried rate hike" parable all over again.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!