The Last Two Times Business Inventories Were This High Relative To Sales, The US Was In A Recession

Tyler Durden's picture

Business Inventories jumped 0.3% MoM in September (notably more than the 0.0% change expected) and the highest since June led by a surge in Retailers restocking (+0.8% despite sales being unchanged). Retailers Sales are up 1.7% YoY but Retailers' Inventories are up 5.1% YoY.

With Sales unchanged (manufacturers -0.4%), the inventories-to-sales ratio surged to 1.38x - the highest since the financial crisis.



Like retail sales, the last 2 times inventories were this high relative to sales, The US was in recession.


Charts: Bloomberg

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Dr. Engali's picture

Whew, we've exited the depression and been upgraded to a recession. That's a relief. 

NoDebt's picture

With two "last time it was this bad we were in a recession" stories up at the same time are the Tylers trying to tell me something?

I know for sure it can't be that we're going into another recession.  Not a damned one of us here will live long enough to see the next officially declared recession.

XAU XAG's picture

It's all good


When a chart is going from left to right upwards's all good...............oh wait

Skiprrrdog's picture

Yeah, what is up with that? IMHO, a *recession* would be a step up from where we have been...

Surviver22's picture
Surviver22 (not verified) Nov 13, 2015 10:16 AM

This is how would war between Russia and America look like..

Dr. Engali's picture

Bye, Bye NASDAQ 5000, it's been nice knowing you.

Bill of Rights's picture

Ha ha ha ha ha ha with all the downgrades and major, major  retailers showing dismal numbers they come out with this ha ha ha ha just proves once again the Government numbers are phony.


What a joke!

swanpoint's picture

Raise the fucking FED rate already! I'm tired of waiting for this shit house to collapse: DOOOOOOOOOO IT!!!!

FreeShitter's picture

No shit...I want to try out this new .308

Colonel Klink's picture

I'm doing my part to ensure that inventories remain high.  A big fuck you to the corrupt, fascist government, The Fed, and big corporations.

Sounds like inventory is highest since Lehman.

A_Gobshite's picture

This requires government intervention, we need laws/regulations that make consumers purchase these goods pronto

NOZZLE's picture

Stopped by Patten Cat yesterday in Elmhurst Illinois to pick up some parts couldn't help but notice at least 50 brand new wheel loaders almost spilling out of the fenced in lot into the street.  I've never seen there are lot so packed new machinery.

DC Beastie Boy's picture

We're still in the recession.

243 Win Mag

Falling Down's picture

Some CNBS idiot was blathering about "strong car sales", yesterday.

Every salesman I know, amd they're in two states, says sales are down double digits from a year ago.

Bailout in 3...2...1...

Ddaina's picture

I could have never imagined why use mail forwarding address cloud provide a new identification for my home based business, unless I had used it personally.