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The Last Two Times Retail Sales Were This Bad, The US Was In A Recession
Earlier today, we sarcastically noted...
After the terrible retailer results, what we need today is a solid beat in retail sales "data"
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 13, 2015
It wasn't meant to be, because, amid the carnage in Macy's, Nordstrom, and JCPenney...
... not even the US Department of Commerce would be so bold as to suggest retail spending has rebounded.
Sure enough, following a 0.1% dip in September, 'control group' retail sales rose just 0.2% (half the expected 0.4% rise). Furthermore, having fallen 0.3% MoM last month, retail sales ex-autos rose just 0.2% (again missing the expected 0.4% gain).
October saw retail sales declines in Motor sales, Electronics, Food and Beverage, Gasoline Sales, and General Merchandise.
Most notable is the drop in year-over-year gains (and downward revisions) to a rise of just 1.7% - the 2nd weakest since the financial crisis.
* * *
But the picture is clearest when excluding the debt bubble-funded auto-spending spree. When one excludes autos, what we find is that the last two times retail sales were this weak, The US was already in recession.
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Rate Hike!
Nobody has any money for stuff because of Obamacare.
In honor of David Hasselhoff dropping the "Hassel" part of his last name I have decided to drop the "ebt" part of my screen name. Henceforth I will be "NoD".
Oh, no, wait. No, that's an absolutely awful idea. Forget I said that.
Why don't you just drop the "NO" from your name? Lord knows your wife probably tells you that enough. Losing the name may be therapeutic.
Maybe I should drop the D and just become "NoEBT"
Tboned
There is nothing to support great Retail sales. People are tapped out, Healthcare, Housing, Food, Insurance....
Layoff List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
-
Looks like the full effects of the ACA are finally hitting the overall economy...
and to think we were called "racists" for telling people what their "$2500/yr savings" would REALLY look like.....
Slaves love to dance to their own symphony of destruction. Yes, this is a Megadeth reference. Dave Mustaine is awesome.
Shares of GoPro fell another 8.5% to $21.21 Friday, after slumping 7.8% on Thursday, pushing the stock below its $24 initial public offering price for the first time. The action-camera company’s shares are down 72% over the last year, while the S&P 500 has traded flat.
GoPro ‘absolutely detested’ by investors, hammered by short sellershttp://www.msn.com/en-us/money/inside-the-ticker/gopro-%E2%80%98absolute...
Poor short sellers. Next to 'climate change' Hoax, they are #2 blamed for everything bad.
<< Next to 'climate change' Hoax, they are #2 blamed for everything bad. >>
Don't forget the Confederate Flag. That has to be up there somewhere.
But... but... cheap gas!!!
It's the middle class stupid.
"You take a mortal man,
And put him in control
Watch him become a god,
Watch peoples heads a'roll
A'roll...
[Chorus:]
Just like the Pied Piper
Led rats through the streets
We dance like marionettes,
Swaying to the Symphony...
Of Destruction
Acting like a robot,
Its metal brain corrodes
You try to take its pulse,
Before the head explodes
Explodes..."
What's really sad is all of liberal utopian "smart guys" who insisted how much better the healthcare system would be under O-care are now saying "But, but, but we can't get rid of it because what would we replace it with?"
Hmm ... how about what we had BEFORE this POS legislation was rammed down everyone's throats! It wasn't perfect, but my copays and premiums were a hell of a lot cheaper.
In fairness, Macys, JCPenny, Nordstrom, etc... are all old-school brick-and-mortar department stores. While I'm certain their down profitability signals something, I would be much more worried if suddenly all online retailers were having trouble. The department store is dead. Long live the return of the Boutique and the Online Shop.
They are all "online retailers" as well, and are likely dependent on their online sales, just like everyone else. The problem is that they're too "middle class" to sell in in the volume they're trying to sell in. The middle class is simply gone. The rich shop at Barneys and boutiques w/in walking distance of their penthouses, and the rest just go to WalMart.
Yep. pretty soon Reggie will have to take his dick out of that punks ass and go shopping.
howcome nobody ever gets porterhoused?
They don't buy Tbones with their EBT. Tbones are stolen, then sometimes sold out back behind the grocery store--at a discount, of course.
it would be more funny if his first name was Jack
don't worry about antm and aet execs, they got plenty.
and:
car repairs
car payments
car insurance
college tuition
food
utility bills
increasing taxes
etc
don't forget: cable, internet and iphone bills.
Bummercare willl provide the smackdown in 2016 as premiums are set to rise.
Hmmm, that's strange I think I'm single handily keeping Gander Mountain's doors open buying all this survival gear and ammo.
I thought people got money from jobs.
The ACA law is a big drain on people's budget. Our family premium increased from $700 to $2,100 per month with a 12,000 deductible. $25K premium+$12K deductible=$37K before you have any help from insurance.
The families just above subsidy level (400% of Fed Poverty line) ie $90K for family of 4, $37K is a big hit, add a college tuition or two, and there is little money left.
Playing along for most families clearly doesn't add up anymore. This is very stressful.
Saving $100 per month on gasoline gets so much positive media coverage. Suddenly paying $3,000 per month on insurance and healthcare is a much bigger issue. Gruber says Obama & Pelosi passed the law because Americans are stupid. That's a rare honest comment.
October saw retail sales declines in Food and Beverage
Houston...................we have a problem
I'm making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do... www.wallstreet34.com
I'm making $7k a minute by working at the FRB and making your life miserable. All I had to do was sign a piece of paper with some blood, and it changed my life and yours. This is what I do www.PrintMoMoney.com.
... sign a piece of paper and drink some blood from a child sacrafice...
fixed it
awesome! give me $1k of that a month - then I'll be making $1k a month not even having to work - thanks!
Do you work for the IRS?
Merca' don't do recessions! Keep your liberal, commie bastard opinions to yourself. I'll be hopping in my F-350 today to buy more stuff. You know why fucker? Because I'm a goddamn Patriot and these colors don't run! Love it or leave it pal. Use your credit cards and stop all this recession talk, you fascist queer!
a fucking wimp ass 1 ton grocery hauler, get real, this is merica, try a diesel pusher, 40 ft long.
might have to shower or piss on the way to the store...
Normally, I would waste your ass, but I'm on my way to shoot up a Starbucks for being anti-Jesus. Watch yourself fella!
Easy there, big guy.
Have a sit down and a cup of tea with Hillary and she will give you a gentle lesson on how to get that nasty twist out of your panties.
Lord knows she's had enough practice in that department with all the shenanigans that Bill pulled over the years.
but...but...but....we are recoverying...right?
The beatings will continue until recovery and morale improves.
... and there's all that money, simply "sitting on the sidelines," according to the MSM.
Is bad news good news now, or is it bad news? Manipulated markets are so confusing
indexes going up on bad data it's indeed confusing to say the least ..
no, they are quite simple when you come to the realization that we have a tyrannical central planning cabal with an unlimited money printer brazenly and near-openly committing crimes and printing as much eMoney as needed to enforce their full spectrum dominance in order to maintain their absolute power - we are only pawns
Kwanza Day should give us a boost in sales.
As long as the garment industry remains in Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, China, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala... It's good news from bad news.
Give us the bloody details on the retails, we want the bloody details!
Banks are the next group to be hit in this rolling carnage. Pharma, Retail, etc.
$FAZ
Would you like to hear a little story about how much you can lose, and how fast you can shoot yer wad on that symbol? It is NOT for amateurs.
So sales still positive, inflation included, enen though even behemoth WMT is guiding flat. And other trending down and contraction. Remember COST was up 1% , but that was gas price related and gas only is talked up when sales are weak.
No worries, we are about to have the best Christmas shopping season ever...., until it isn't.
Wife and I have already let the kids in on the fact that this XMas will be "lean".
Ours won't be "lean" but I'm not buying any crap from China.
Silver is on sale. Wish my parent bought me a roll for Christmas when I was little.
Someone needs to go on a killing spree utilizing consumer goods as weapons. Obama could then talk about using an executive order to impose federal registration requirements to buy Doritos and t-shirts. Front-running the new restrictions would cause retail sales to skyrocket. Problem solved.
The elves have gone on strike, santa has canceled christmas, the good news is that now you can invest that money without worry.
Make no mistake about it. Nov retail will exceed last years, cause Santa Rally Rate Hike season is upon us. Gotta secure that EOY bonus.
This year the family decided to put names on a list and pull from a hat. The name you get is the name of who you buy a present for..that's it.
You could sense the relief from everyone that they wouldn't be forced to spend mega-soooper-bux for bulllshit.
I think this is going to be one of my favorite Christmas seasons for that fact alone.
Dinner With The Family > Commercialised Giving
Been doing this in our family since I've been with the woman. The inlaw side is huge.
We only give gifts to family kids now. Don't need any more stuff if you're an adult and it is great fun watching little kids with their new gadgets and toys.
Yeah, more fun to play with the mini drone than to help Uncle Ernie unwrap his Xmas mega pack of Depends.
"it is great fun watching little kids with their new gadgets and toys. "
Yes, it was great fun for the parents to give the Baby Boomers everything and watch them have fun with it. But the inevitable consequences weren't so positive.
Christmas in America:
- I want a buncha stupid shit, but not bad enough to waste my own money on it.
- You want a buncha stupid shit, but not bad enough to waste your money on it.
So I'll buy that stupid shit for you if you buy the stupid shit for me.
Wait...what?
Gold should be skyward right now but TPTB are throwing everything possible at it to keep it down...such a farce.
Death to the moneychangers.
-KS
only when people who really really want only physical can't get any cuz there aint any - only then - will it begin to rise
You know there are a few guys in london who meet each morning and conspire to keep the price of gold way down right? If you want to make money on gold just take it overseas and get the high price, convert the currency back into dollars. Oh yeah, don't get caught with it at the border, you'll be arrested, they legislated that too.
Suck it Lehman!
The problem I have with Yellen is she is dragging this process out. Clearly she wants to be more hawkish than Bernanke. But just do it already! She needs to dump the worthless derivatives on the Fed book into the market, or write them off. Raise rates to 5% How many more years is she going to drag this process out? FFS. How long can she make this depression last? Either do it or STFU about it. The Fed and the government have the power to obliterate the economy and destroy established markets at will. We all know this. She needs to stop making threats and get ot over with, or take her granny ass to a new job as a Walmart Greeter. And for Gawd's sake, someone send her to a speech therapy class so she can lose that irritating accent.
I am somewhat confused. Our (privately held) business is doing very well. We supply materials to the elecontronics and semiconductor businesses around the world. Unit sales are mostly up ... but because of commodity prices coming down, dollar sales are down. The losses on inventory have been relatively small.
Wall Street and naysayers would have a cow because the top line is down ... but the owners like the cash rolling in. The top line tells very little about the health of our business (unless commodities are stable) ... unlike a dot.com 2.0 business where top line is pretty much everything (except the one time charges against the top line ... such as free give-aways for marketing purposes).
It is possible that retail sales are lower than expected because costs and prices are down. This does not mean anything bad.
Last year we saw a slowdown starting mid November and going through December. It does not look like it is coming this year.
change in the topline of your business tells of the future health of your company. if prices down faster than sales going down, margins look good.....if your company has little debt it will survive anything....if it has much debt you'll be climbing a hill of sand.
despite what benny and ol yeller would like, business cycles are real, and a recession will occur again, probably sooner than later...one prepares now, top or post top of cycle.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and speculate electronics and semiconductors are one of the least regulated, most competitive, most tangible sales driven industries around carrying the bulk of all innovation and productivity that is happening these days. I.e, the healthiest segment of the economy.
Remember, remember 29th of September (2008)
http://www.drudgereportarchives.com/data/2008/09/29/20080929_222738.htm
last time I stepped in one of these, approx...
Nordstrom 2012
Macys 2005
JC Penney 1995
Sears 2010
Kmart 1990
I worked at Jcp during the Ron Johnson debacle. I'm amazed they're still alive. The store should be put out of its misery. Management from top to bottom is third tier.
exactly, im not really sure who shops at these places...given the convenience of on line and the plethora of 'outlet's i see the prices a macys and am like, no way im paying $45 for a button down shirt...who pays full retail???
You never go full retail!
Add in the years of off shoring US work. All for the goal of lower wages.
Eventually it hits consumption. Corporations want their cake and to eat it too.
Credit and the debt eventually maximizes.
But...but...da Black Friday! People will buy all the things!
Or more likely, looting big screen TVs while the power is out.
The demand destruction from them trampling each other is a bitch to account for when channeling animal spirits.
This is great news ...
One more "recovery summer" and that should do it.
Yep ...
(one more Obama "recovery summer" and our economy will be fixed for good)
Ahem. That's recuvah summah to you.
The narrative has now worn too thin. There will be no more recovery summers like the old ones. Brute forced, painted smile summers maybe, But no more halcyon ones.
Slaughterer-
Fuck rape care
I claim more so no refund!
Can't take what isn't there!
Pop
snap
crackle? Wrong order.
War is a comin
has always been here, I mean like since the beginning of man - just a matter of degree of how active it is at any one time
Gold ripped then got hammered, Hey I thought the low gas prices were going to....oh nevermind. Just buy stawks!
Bottom line
October overall retail sales growth would have been NEGATIVE without downward revision to september.
Overall retail sales
September (initial) ... $447.686 billion
September (revised) ... $447.031 billion
October (initial) ... $447.255 billion
....so if the ez subprime credit dries up and people cant get paid to take a vehicle off the lot, retail sales will fall dramatically, slow down at factories, claims climb etc etc
...but on the bright side, as a person who is an fa at a b/d, just think of how good the year over year numbers will be next year! no joke.
NY FED desperately trying to keep long term yields from going down. the manipulation is so blatant, it's comical.
inverted yield curve? what inverted yield curve...not here no sirree, 0% today and 2% over the next 10yrs...and another fat 1% for another 20...nope, all good, future inflation expectations in check (higher), deflation? what deflation, look at how healthy the housing, stock and bond markets are! --they cant be starving look how fat they are!--
Wow, look at those rates move on the far end. Stocks are oblivious to implications of this morning's numbers, but not bonds.
I have started my shoping for my Christmas party for the kids that live around me at my cabin....$3,000 for $10 worth of plastic...but hey..its the spirit that counts...
Holy Fukamole.
Who knew last year would be the good ol' days?
Wait till 5 years and 10 years from now; Obama will look like Bill Clinton does today.
You mean a brain-damaged stutterer with obvious signs of PTSD from years of living with brass-balled wife?
The August 24th lows will soon be seen as 'the good 'ol days' as well.
as long as buffett is happy fuck everyone else
Man! Don't know about you but this economic recovery business is fantastic. There are only 2 beggars per street corner now in Houston Texas versus the 2.5 last week. Can you say progress? sure you can, just say it.
The .5 was target practice; they ran out of the deer signs.
Good one!
Everything is awesome!
None of these numbers mean anything. Sure, you can trade them. But no stats the gov puts out mean anything.
How do we adopt Mexican children? I want to pass those out as gifts.
“Here, Mary, I got you a landscaper!”
LOL...you are on the naughty list this year.
Will an abstract "glacier" help? Instead of Christmas trees, they installed a glacier that doesn't look at all like a glacier, it looks like a big white ass...to go even further, perhaps it's a ChristASS joke:
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/11/08/shopping-mall-ditches-christm...
Then, over at Bloomdales, their Christmas adversement slyly suggests a date rape technique used by Bill Cosby:
“Spike your best friend’s eggnog when they’re not looking.”
http://pix11.com/2015/11/11/bloomingdales-apologizes-for-inappropriate-h...
There is a new Yellen Tree that lights up with a big star on top and the decorations are green backs with the colorful $50's for an additional price. All made in China.
And another gawddam thing...
What happened to the friggin sheep? Did they all die off?
I wanted to get the kid a Pendleton Hudson Bay type wool blanket for Christmas, something he'll keep using until he's a grandpa and can will it away.
I've paid less for cars I have bought. Who makes these things, retired Govt. workers?
Good for you, I hope it gets even worse. A crash would be great though.
I just got back from Zell am See - Kaprun, a small business trip, and there is no shortage of idiot ski shoppers there. What a ridiculous fucking sport/pastime it is.
In the summer, those skiers no doubt play lots of golf and buy new drivers every year at upwards of $250 a rip.
The absurdity of that sport is certainy on par (pun intended).
Best part is the way these ass-hats hit their drives, pulling them deeper and deeper into the rough, traps, rivers. Great for ball recyclers.
"After the terrible retailer results, what we need today is a solid beat in retail sales "data""
LOL, just lower the expectations. Everyone is doing it.
After announcing a beat the trading algos go apeshit.
The real bad news is really the new good news; they will let people line up on the short side, then put the PPT all in and by the end of the year or sometime in January, all the major indexes will be at or above new records.
Let's not worry about statistics and facts. They can get so ugly and difficult. Take some deep breaths, sip your latte, and think happy thoughts- like what TV shows or ball games are on this weekend. Now that's better. All is well.
I try showing people the facts that we are in a recession and they get pissed off like I'm some delusional nutcase. The people who are aware will have the last laugh.
Best Christmas present in the world as far as I'm concerned is a silver eagle. I give the same gift to everyone and even use them as the xmas tip for barstaff. No one ever complains and most are blown away. Yes the niece would prefer an iphony but I told her in a few years she'll be able to buy a phone with that coin. Plus I don't need to go to shopping center.
I've given them to the nieces and nephews over the past two years and they give you a funny look.
When Amazon goes, it all goes. Nothing says the new American normal like Amazon and debt. Throw out trillions of $ in loose credit so the fools can take out student loans, buy BMWs, I-Toys, entertain themselves with Netflix, and collect a disability check. Party on! Robots will soon flip burgers, then what? The Silicon Valley property mega-bubble will pop and take everything with it. All those leased Teslas will go to the repo man, and all those houses, back to the banks. It will make round-one of the collapse, look small.
The government has been spending like drunken sailors on new weapons as the MIC readies the country mentally for WWIII. Without more and more debt, it all collapses. Cities, states and D.C. just keep spending money they don't have, hopeful for more revenues but will never be able to keep up with more demand. Medicare, EBT, S.S., veteran benefits, ACA, all will have to be cut, then it gets ugly.
Can you give us a "when?"? This was suppose to happen already. The PPT has it all under control except for commodities, but when it comes to markets, the amount of free debt and free buybacks is unlimited until a valid challenger comes along or the reset is planned.
Since Halloween was on a Saturday; the parents kept the children home and they went out to support the bar tending jobs. Liquor & beer sales up in October.
it looks as if a fly hit with the gold wall
Some parts of the country will be too cold, too much snow while others will be too warm not enough snow.
Yep between the Bush years and the weather & proxy wars; it has been very difficult for ObombA. But his legacy will be "how I killed the middle-class" and displaced millions from their homes and "I am good at killing with drones".
He will be the first to get the new "Nobel Sh** Prize".
"There is a plot in this country to enslave every man, woman and child.
Before I leave this high and noble office, I intend to expose this plot."
Pres.John F Kennedy
7 days before his assassination
So how did he waste the 7 days?
Was he screwing Judith Exner or Marilyn Monroe?
Somebody should have lit a fire under his ass. Now we're stuck in this big fat mess of Yellen, Obama and Presumptive-Prez Elect Hillary .
The only thing that bought and paid for lightweight was going to expose is his dick
When will all of you necrophiliacs quit humping the Kennedy corpses?
YoY Retail Sales ex Gasoline Stations: +4.1%
Um, yeah? So some of this is low energy prices?
Yeah, but wasn't the weather better then ?
Now it is different, it's the weather.
Cannot wait for the steep discounts that Black Lives...cough cough.... I mean Black Friday will bring! The conceal & carry permit will come in handy on that Friday - (2) weeks from today!!!
Discounts or else.......
#BlackFridayMatters
Save us, Janet! Raise rates 10 days before Christmas. Just what the economy needs, an extra kick in the ass while it's hurtling down the circular stairs to Hades.
Cosmetics sales, being the exception to the rule, are skyrocketing!
There's your America-metaphor, right there. Keep painting the rotten barn year after year, when it should have been bulldozed long ago.
Oh come on, is ZH telling us the US is in a recession?
More like flirting with one.
#consumerlivesmatter
Dumb companies! They shipped all the jobs overseas or automated them, and they used their get out of jail free card on stock buy backs. Now Americans don't have enough money to buy their goods and services, shocker! After all, rich people don't really consume that much more than poor people. And then all the angry dummies out there blame the puppet government instead of the pupper master corporations. People want low prices but high wages. That's a neat magic trick! I guess it works if you export the inflation and beggar thy neigbhbor, but that boomerang is coming back hard.
Retail XRT below the Aug. 24 close today, Dec oil heading shortly to 12 year lows in the 30s, Ag now pennies above a $13 handle and probably going to $10, and other downside commodity and index losers, tell me the Danse MaCabre of the equities is about to begin - again - but - maybe this time with insufficient BTFDipper fed believers:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=xrt&insttype=Fund&freq=1&show=
http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-advanced-chart (See the monthly).
Hat tips to any and all who can define oil support above $20.
Fed will make sure nothing happens until November 2016. After that, it's over.
I agree, they will do anything to drag this corpse over the Nov 16 finish line.
The Fed's 6 man open mouth committee pressers yesterday completely backfired, and there's no other way the bank managers can stop the damage that will occur when 10,000 plus big money/equity managers all head for the exits before their yearly 2015 performance turns completely disastrous. Last Aug. 24th will have been the preview of things to come.
More sports stadiums should be built.
Mu football team " We ain't gonna play unless you fire some people we don't like
St. Louis Rams: " We gonna move unless you build us a new stadium"
All this shit in Mo. which is a baseball state
We deserve what we get
Are retail sales bad? I buy almost everything on Amazon, they're the real indicator . . . . I hate going to the malls or anywhere with crowds and traffic.
The Fed will just buy more bonds to keep the house of cards from collapsing.