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Demand, Supply, or Outright Manipulation?
Charts: Bloomberg
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Outright Manipulation...
BTFD physical!
ECON INV(101)
Or a chart from Armstrongs' site of free market analysis.... lmao
Looks like the standard operating procedure of boot fucking the populace, and the mayhem that ensues from sheeple with sore assholes afterwards. Again.
a combination..
It's a mystery!
On the plus side, it does prove that the laws of supply and demand are at work at the Mint, if nowhere else.
Yes , you are correct. That is also why one shouldn't use mint sales in regards to overall demand and supply.
For example. Let's say that the when the Iphone 5 was coming out the demand was expected to be high (as it was). But Apple only produced 1 million of them. They certainly would have sold out.
The mint does that every year. They buy so much PMs and allocate certain amounts of each PM for various products. And when that limited amount sells out, ZH makes a big deal out of it like the entire planet ran out of PMs.
Yes, demand is high, but mint products are limited for reason.
The law states that the Mint has to produce these bullion coins to meet demand. The thing the Mint is guilty of is not anticipating greater demand. The only things produced which have limits are commemoratives, proofs, and other collector coins. There have been planchet production problems in the past but hardly anything to do with the availability of the metal. Sunshine Mint makes just about all of these so it's just lack of being able to read a crystal ball by the Mint. You are right about a lot and uninformed about a little. No problemo since most of this is not general knowledge by the public.
As you stated, the Law must meet Demand. How many years has this happened and what will stop it from Happening again?
I'll take "outright manipulation" for $1000 Alex...
Boom it's the daily double how much do you wager Mr. Thisisbullishright ?
OK, for $10,000.00 How much was gold before Nixon unpeged the US dollar? Follow up bonus what forced him to do it?
bzzt. time is up so i'm going to buzz in.
without looking it up, i'm going to guess $35, and excessive redemptions of dollars for gold, in particular by charles de gaulle.
"the dollar may be our currency but it's your problem" - john connolly, sec of treasury under nixon
Keep stacking those shiny metals. If you don't hold them, you don't own them.
...and if you own it, it can be taken in 3...2...1
...or P-metal will be wothless when everyone is trading, like canned food for drinking water and bycycles for firewood.
When TSHTF, folks will be looking at you like you have a dick growing out of your forehead when you pull out a metal coin to barter with. Like they should take it as an investment or something for the future.
Just saying
When you are fleeing for your life as a refugee, you will be rounded up and hauled to a detention camp. I will hand the guard a gold coin and then check in at the nearest 5 star hotel. That is how refugees have been doing it for centuries.
What, you won't hand the guard a BitCoin?
NoWayJose - you're kidding, right? The guard will take your gold coin, hope you have more shoved up your hole, and cut you open to find out. Then he will torture you hoping you reveal where the rest of your stash is.
Next they will do the same with your family. Your wife, daughter, and young son will receive special attention. Whether or not you reveal the location of your gold you and your family are toast.
There, fixed your reality for you. You're welcome.
Hey, ain't you the guy who posts all the time about making $5297/week doing some online thing?
no, that was his mom. leave the poor guy alone, it's a sensitive subject for him.
"When TSHTF, folks will be looking at you like you have a dick growing out of your forehead when you pull out a metal coin to barter with."
So, would BitCoin be a better solution?
J/K
Manipulation enabled by rehypothecated physical gold, or rather, allowing gold To be treated like a currency deposit via p/s contracts rather than as a *bailment*.
By the time the mint gets the gold, it is already off the books.
Gold in private hands is not gold in circulation. It is gold in inventory ... only small inventories. It is not being consumed, so there is no shortage.
What's that tell you about stocks and bonds then - I guessing there's a shortage there...
Buyer's market, so don't complain.
We all speculate, but I can't help but think silver will be the dollar for dollar better way to go vs gold, but you can't lose with either.
Silver is good for many things, I like when my wife rubs my balls with it.
Looks like the down trend is over though !
Oh wait - thats what I said last time - then they hammered it !
A chart that contradicts itself indicates a lie?
It's a message from the Owners-
"Don't even try it, we run this."
Nothing lasts forever, change is inevitable.
Red line = brilliant multi billionaire hedge fund managers continuing to build their shorts
Green line = ordinary poor dumb folks
multi billionaire hedge fund managers in conjunction with feds & cartel banks controlling the price through futures shorting, "shit out of thin air", in reality a criminal event, but the criminals at the commex are in on the fix perhaps even under threat! - BRILLANT - NOPE CRIMINAL!
Epiphany -
Why does anyone care what the price of gold is, today or tomorrow?
The whole point to owning gold and / or silver is so that you have something of real value when the SHTF, that can be traded for food, clothing, guns, and ammo, etc...
Sure, if you think that in 10 or 15 years, the status quo will return, then hedging your wealth with Au or Ag, i.e. before 1929, is a smart play.
But I think we'd all agree here that this time, when the SHTF, we're talking about GLOBAL CHANGE that will last for a century or more--hence the need to have a tradable commodity. And since we all know that the commodities markets are heavily manipulated by TPTB, the prices for gold and silver are irrelevant.
WHEN IT COLLAPSES AGAIN!!!!!!, they will just confiscate it again & shoot you if you do not comply. Happy USSA
You put way to much faith in the people to comply and the authorities to enforce. If enough people ignore the law they can't enforce it... See immigration.
Has it ever been anything other than outright manipulation.
That donkey that crapping gold coins in the FED's basement must be eating a lot prumes...
Trick question! Manipulation doesn't exist anywhere, and supply & demand have nothing to do with price in modern markets.
I learned that on TV.
They don't call them "GOLD"MAN for no reason....
Manipulation???
Quick! Call Captain Unactionable Fag....
OH, FORGET IT!!! Just BTFD.
The selective focus on just 1/4 oz retail AGE coins should hint at the flaw in this analysis. The U.S. mint decides production levels of various sizes based on typical coin buyer purchases which are tied to their typical budgets compared to coin prices.
Cheaper gold migrates all buyers up to larger sized coins than otherwise because more people can now afford them. In other words, the increased demand for 1/4ths comes at the expense of a decreased demand for 1/10ths. The chart could just as mistakenly focus on only 1/10ths and try to conclude gold demand is falling.
The only valid analysis is to look not just 1/4oz AGEs, but all coins and not just coins but bars and not just retail but wholesale demand for physical. This is the only way to get an accurate picture of demand levels.
Moreover, retail demand is like 20 tonnes a year. That's a fart in the wind for the instutional physical market.
Even that is flawed as per your explanation and what I have said repeatedly. The mint only buys so much PMs and allocates it to various products.
Using a limited supply from one source is the flaw regardless of what weight in PMs you put into the analysis.
And everyone seems to miss a big point. For each of those physical sales whether it is someone just buying 1 coint or a bank or country buying bars, there is a seller agreeing to that price.
I think we agree on all points. I was mentioning the tonnage only to emphasize not only is U.S. retail just one category of overall global physical demand, it's a small category to boot.
One physical gold exchange, the LBMA, trades on average 5,000 tonnes of gold every day, clearing (transferring physical possession) on average 500 tonnes a day. So the entire net U.S. annual retail coin purchase amount is purchased and taken for delivery 25 times a day, every day, just at the LBMA.
In the context of these numbers, ZH pointing to a stock outage of 1/4oz weight AGEs as if that indicates something about an imbalance in overall gold market physical supply and demand is silly and insulting to the intelligence of ZH readers.
Any overall physical gold market supply/demand imbalance will reveal itself not via retail outages but via the spot gold price. As LBMA, Shanghai, and other major physical market makers start to run low on physical stocks, they will start to quote higher prices. That is as dramatic as things will get.
If a particular mint's pressing of a particular coin disappears off shelves it's because that particular mint didn't adequately, forecast, produce, or manage inventory to accommodate demand for that particular gold coin. Nothing at all to do with any imbalance in physical gold supply or demand. So long as legal, gold coins from one mint or another will always be on shelves selling for whatever price is set by the much larger total physical gold market.
It's a great, big, fuck you peons!
Think about it for a second. Who is selling?
With such a tiny market, at some point those entities and individuals that want to buy will have done so, with a large majority with no intention to sell it. If demand increases with tight supply, it does not necessarily follow that spot prices will rise if there are few sellers not intending to sell, and thus little supply on offer.
Moreover, given the latecomer gold bulls who bought from $1,000-$1,900, there are probably lots of those guys dying for $1,500-$1,900 so they can sell, but I suspect that they will be waiting a long time.
But this is what gold as a proxy for the store of value of "money" is SUPPOSED TO DO.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=2yqO
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=2yr1
Above is a proprietary proxy for the price of gold (red), one 2007 = 100. Gold as "money" (or purchasing power "insurance") commenced bubbles in the late 1970s and in 2009-12, predictably resulting an "anti-bubble" since 2012.
Gold today is approximately "fair value" (always elusive) but could fall below $1,000/oz. with persistent deflation and US$ strength.
Moreover, gold has maintained its purchasing power for 36 years, and slightly more since the US$ was removed from the gold-exchange standard under Bretton Woods.
Again, that's what gold is SUPPOSED TO DO.
So, dudes, the meme of gold supply and price manipulation is a canard as it is most often described.
Gold was in a textbook super-exponential bubble (that gold bugs denied to the bloody end) that predictably burst and is now approximately priced where it should be, notwithstanding that the price could fall further without gold losing its capacity to insure against the mishief of banksters and politicos.
You won't find this perspective anywhere in the gold bug community nor the maimed-street mania.
Accumulate gold over time as insurance, but don't expect to hit the golden jackpot.
So you can create dollars out of thin air to infinity, and gold will only be 1100 or 1200 an ounce. Thats some insurance policy.
You're thinking of costs in paper terms and not precious metal terms.
What OP was saying (quite rightly) is what gold *generally* does is maintain purchasing power and has never really been a high flyer if speculation is your game. If you buy an Italian suit for $1200 today, and the cost of gold is $1200 per ounce in paper terms you ou pay 1oz of gold for that suit. If in the next year the paper money pool doubles then the paper price of that suit will likely double, but in cost per oz it's probably still around the same ballpark as it was the year before.
That's a gross simplification of course, but it makes the overall point. Once you start thinking of things in terms of oz's instead of paper it becomes clearer.
"If demand increases with tight supply, it does not necessarily follow that spot prices will rise if there are few sellers not intending to sell, and thus little supply on offer."
This does not fit my understanding of supply and demand curve. I had believed the opposite: when demand increases or supply decreases the price for the commodity also increases if the value of money is held constant. I guess, because the value of money is no longer attached to the value of work, it is different this time?
you're way off.
if you talk about the price of gold in terms of dollars ($/oz), what you're actually doing is pricing the DOLLAR in terms of GOLD.
the quantity of gold has remained more or less stable.
the quantity of dollars has exploded exonentially.
since you're fond of charts from the st louis fed, here is one for you:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=AMBNS
given the fairly stable quantity of gold and the enormous over-printing (debasing) of the dollar, it would take a huge re-valuing of the dollar downwards (or gold upwards), fair value would be in excess of $50,000 per ounce, to back the money supply..
and that's BEST case scenario, where the usa still has the 8000 tons of gold that they claim (pardon my skepticism regarding this claim). if there's only a tenth of that left, that means the price of gold in dollars has to go up another factor of 10 to back the money supply.
gold manipulation is a canard, eh? the big banks rig the energy marks, rig libor rates, rig every conceivable market, but gold for some strange reason is left alone and traded freely - that's your claim now, is it?
ted butler, andrew mcguire, gata, and others, have provided conclusive evidence of gold and silver market manipulation.
but, believe what you like, the truth will come out, and i suspect it will come out sooner rather than later.
*edit*: stlouis fed link didn't come through but can still be copied and pasted to view the chart
JANUARY 22, 2020 HEADLINES
EXTRA! EXTRA! READ ALLABOUTIT
JPMORGAN & CME INDICTED FOR PRICE MANIPULATION OF GOLD/SILVER
JANUARY 22, 2040 HEADLINES
JPMORGAN & CME INDICTED FOR PRICE MANIPULATION OF GOLD/SILVER
IN A RELATED NOTE> IT HAS BEEN REPORTED HELL HAS FROZEN OVER
in the end the winners are the ones would took the physical because they won't pay for the paper pms. tht chart says there is a huge sale going on just in time for christmas.
Lost a lot on pesimmism porn.
Make the chart meaningful. Include mine production and pssssttt. ZH there are other countries in the world.
I'll take "Paper Gold price manipulated by central bankers" for $100 Alex!
No hot women walking around the ring with 'round cards'.
Well, if you use the Amazon Approach to Profit, you would understand the chart.
It's simple. The more you sell at a lower price, well, the more stuff you sell at a lower price!
I think Bezos will be heralded as the next Warren Buffet!
ummm ... I can say it is an acute case of Hyper-Braind-Dead Keynesianims but the looks of the chart ...
The mints sells all the PMs it mints every year. Not one ounce more or less. And that batch of quarter ounce coins probably represents less than a ton of gold total. They just don't mint very much. As mints continue to ramp up production, they continue to sell out every year. At some point, if they keep increasing production, they will make a dent. Silver is probably already there. But gold is going to take a while. The mints are stingy with the gold for some reason.
It's manipulation but take advantage of it.