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No Serious Financial Repercussions From The Paris Attacks? Don't Be Too Sure
Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,
Global sentiment might switch decisively from "risk-on" to "risk-off" with far-reaching consequences.
Goldman Sachs has helpfully announced that any financial repercussions from the attacks in Paris will be short-lived, and the political repercussions will be medium-term: Increased uncertainty likely to weigh on activity and increase market volatility in the short run (via Zero Hedge).
The analogies invoked to support this rosy view are the attacks in Madrid in 2004 and in London in 2005--tragedies that weighed very briefly on the global orgy of financial gains between 2003 and 2007.
But isn't it obvious that the world of November 2015 is not the world of 2004? The global economy is not in a cycle of robust expansion of debt, wages, consumption, profits and stock valuations as it was in 2004.
Now, debt is softening or being revealed as impaired, wages are stagnant for the bottom 90%, real sales are down once subprime-auto-loan enabled vehicle purchases are subtracted, profits and forward projections for sales are crumbling, along with stock valuations.
The global financial system is fragile and vulnerable. Any number of relatively modest changes could push the entire shaky contraption off the cliff:
1. any increase in private-sector interest rates, for any reason
2. any faltering of global sentiment
3. externalities (disruptions from weather, war, shortages, a.k.a. grey swans)
4. unexpected crises (a.k.a. black swans)
5. any toppling-domino-like failure of counterparties as defaults pile up
Does this weekly chart of the S&P 500 look remotely bullish? Stochastics have rolled over in a "sell" signal, and MACD couldn't even claw its way above the neutral line. Now MACD is also poised to roll over into a sell.
Does this chart of stocks, wages and real final sales look remotely bullish? Notice that all three have turned down, echoing the recessions and stock market collapses of 2001 and 2008.
It's not just tourism and retail sales that might swoon--global sentiment might switch decisively from "risk-on" to "risk-off" with far-reaching consequences, a reversal that would quickly cascade through every asset class and every market--not just in the short-term, but in the long term.
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I feel bad for the band that was playing at the concert...that ends their career...it would be hard to get back up on stage after that....but yes..this is the start of these kinds of attacks..the whole world is at risk....its a new era...of terrorism...we still dont call our enemy what it is...
The band played on.
That's part of Ball of Confusion lyrics by the Temptations :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmRsWdK0PRI accompanied by an interesting video/photo montage.
People moving out, people moving in. Why, because of the color of their skin.
Run, run, run but you sure can't hide. An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth.
Vote for me and I'll set you free. Rap on, brother, rap on.
Dennis: Well, the only person talking about love thy brother is the...(preacher.)
And it seems nobody's interested in learning but the...(teacher.)
Segregation, determination, demonstration, integration, Aggravation, humiliation, obligation to our nation.
Ball of confusion. Oh yeah, that's what the world is today. Woo, hey, hey.
[Paul:]
The sale of pills are at an all time high.
Young folks walking round with their heads in the sky.
The cities ablaze in the summer time.
And oh, the beat goes on.
[Dennis:]
Evolution, revolution, gun control, sound of soul.
Shooting rockets to the moon, kids growing up too soon.
Politicians say more taxes will solve everything.
[Melvin:]
And the band played on.
So, round and around and around we go.
Where the world's headed, nobody knows.
[Instrumental]
Oh, great googalooga, can't you hear me talking to you.
Just a ball of confusion.
Oh yeah, that's what the world is today.
Woo, hey, hey.
[Eddie:]
Fear in the air, tension everywhere.
Unemployment rising fast, the Beatles new record's a gas.
[Dennis:]
And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation.
[Melvin:]
And the band played on.
Eve of destruction, tax deduction, city inspectors, bill collectors,
Mod clothes in demand, population out of hand, suicide, too many bills,
Hippies moving to the hills. People all over the world are shouting, 'End the war.'
[Melvin:]
And the band played on.
[Instrumental]
Great googalooga, can't you hear me talking to you.
Sayin'... ball of confusion.
That's what the world is today, hey, hey.
Let me hear ya, let me hear ya, let me hear ya.
Sayin'... ball of confusion.
That's what the world is today, hey, hey.
Let me hear ya, let me hear ya, let me hear ya, let me hear ya, let me hear ya.
Sayin'... ball of confusion.
A little marketing and it's all good
If You Don't Buy Our CD The Terrorists WIN !!
With Obama in charge, everything will work out well. Ho, ho, ho!
Right now, he is giving a speech at the G20 meeting in Turkey, a country that supported ISIS all the way, since ISIS is fighting the Kurds. I wonder if after the St. Valentine's Day Massacre, did Al Capone make a radio speech decrying the killings as against humanity? If he had been advised by Obama's NWO accomplices, Capone would have made such a speech.
That's not even taking into account the loss of hundreds of billions that less tourism will incur.
http://www.examiner.com/article/terror-attacks-paris-and-egypt-will-cost-nations-billions-lost-tourism
Travel agents are cancelling made trips to Paris in droves, U2 and Foo Fighters cancelled their Paris concerts, and with Russia cutting off Ehyptian airlines into the Motherland... people are going to realize even the most 'secure' cities are unsafe.
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain (It's time to toss the dice)
The Daily Economist
Paris = safest city in the world right now
Why didn't the terrorists just slice the Eiffel tower in half with a passenger jet?
CIA lost their remote control.
Mossad had Yom Kippur off.
Planes can't slice steel buildings. Unless lots of explosive is used. I guess it would be hard to hide lots of termite since you can see "inside" of the tower.
Paris - safest city in the world right now
Reminds me of what my English coworkers said about the 2nd WTC building moments before it was hit
I feel bad for the victims and wish the survivors well.
As for this article....CHS suggestion sounds good but misses the mark. The Markets only care about MONEY....and French tourism doesn't make much difference. The "market" may use this as an excuse to reduce their positions, but it is only that....an excuse. The real drivers of the market remain the same (Central Banks, oil, oligarchs, crony capitalism, etc.). Terrorist groups always pop up now-and-again just to remind the TPTB that the group is still relevant outside the warzone.....but these acts are isolated and soon go away again.
The market will move based on the new world order that ZH accurately depicts week after week.
2016 = election year for the 1%'s puppet duopoly. What to do? A: use the old Mexican Prez "shitflush scheme" ...worked every time (~every 6 yrs) for 70 yrs. with an outgoing-incoming Mexican el Presidente.
The masses buy-in because they want to believe, "the new guy will fix things" ('Jeb can fix it')...that bullshit. Worked on simplistic Mexicans; the Gringo needs a little more elaborate hoax.
Oh yes, it also means Dems are toast.
So everyone's going to Rio for the 2016 Olympics right? um what
I would not be to worried about ISIS in Brazil....but the local gangs are much more dangerous...and the corrupt police
Too distracted by cute butts, can't talk.
King Obama: It's our duty to continue accepting refugees, others should follow.
the memo is out to keep gold and silver down....dropping fast..cant have a rush to security now can we....TPTB say so
Stochastics have rolled over in a "sell" signal, and MACD... lower Bollinger... RAFF OUT ROUD
No mention of Lepenne?
Most people outside France don't consider her a repercussion per se.
Another perspective is that this means war means oil goes up means headwinds for everyone (got used to that cheap ass Saudi sour didn't ya, bitchez).