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Baltic Dry Index Crashes Near Record Low
The Baltic Dry Index staged a recovery mid-year, hopefully rising amid promises of stability in China and an 'escape' velocity USA. All that centrally-planned hope and hype faith has been eviscerated on the altar of economic reality. With no ability to directly manipulate the Baltic Dry Index to 'pretend' everything is awesome, it remains among the best 'real' indicators of the state of the global economy... and it's in the toilet...
From hope to nope...
The Batlc Dry nears all-time record lows once again...
In fact, for this time of year, it has never been lower...
But apart from that, buy stocks because terrorism rocks and The Fed would not be raising rates unless everything was awesome, right?
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: It's not just The Baltic Dry (or the China Containerized Feight Index), HARPEX has also collapsed to 2008 levels...Harpex for the 6,500 and 8,500 TEU ships are at the exact same level as their 2009 lows and trending lower
But don't worry as talking heads will tell you it is all a supply problem... and nothing to do with demand... MAYBE they'll forget to mention the 'why' there is over-supply - because the freaking manipulations of market-based signals of demand create a massive mal-investment boom in shipbuilding!!!! </rant>
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Don't worry, Janet is warming up the presses...these ships just need MOAR liquidity!
It's an industry that could benefit from some serious negative rate financing...
This is all because of the Interwebbienet thingamajiggie.
One of my broker acquaintances once said (back in the day of dotcombubble1) that Amazon is the best way to go because they don't have any bricks and mortar.
So see. No need for ships. The stuff's ordered and just appears!
It costs lots of monies to ship physical items for physical people. Just one more reason to become virtualized and merge with teh machine.
To paraphrase Woody Allen, "Global business is like a shark. For global business to live it needs to be constantly moving forward. What we have here is a dead fish."
what about the FED, who keep bullshiting about raising rates. For over 4 years now, they keep saying one thing, and doing the other. Most zero-hedges are confused!!! and probably losing money.
it seems, the charts are saying we are not in a bear market yet. I was suprised, until I read this. =>http://www.bit.ly/1QLcYwt
Plus seasonally, from NOV - JAN [of the new year] we normally see a santa clause rally come to the market. So is seasonals are at work here, that will be interesting.
Do containerloads of terrorists count?
YES!!!!! and that business is BOOMING!!!!!!!!!!!!
The FED should ship billion tons of Dollars bills - Janet, please rescue the world again!
Exactly how many 1's and 0's can a container ship carry??
Can't look at b.d.i. withoiut looking at new sypply.
Anyone building out new ships deserve what they get...
http://www.seanews.com.tr/news/125642/Shipbuilding-orders-evaporate-as-b...
Those ships that enter service now where ordered 4 to 5 years ago. And we're talking about superships that carry 4 times more then the older ships. Rates where set to plummet a while ago.
Exactly.
Sounds like a weather related issue.
They should come in handy during the next cycle though....
Obama: Mission Accomplished!
Next on the agenda before leaving office:
Flood the US with 3rd world scum (new Democrats)
Confiscate all private weapons
Who says he's leaving?
OK, he's leaving the office of the President to become Ceasar.
This was planned from the very start; the NWO is Winning! (Fucking Conspiracy Theorists)
The only thing the Democrat voters (even wealthy ones) forgot was that the Newly Imported Rabble Will Eat Them As Well.
We're all just poop on a stale baguette, now
It's okay, the BDI will soar when the US needs to ship out boatloads of FRNs to bailout all those folks in the emerging markets who have taken out USD debt. Creating the currency digitally just doesn't juice up the economy enough.
So long as the FRN is still accepted, yes.
FORM = Container sales.
Future Occupied Room Management.
I'll believe this when i walk into a Dollar General and see daylight between empty shelves
so far,they are still fully stocked(yes,i went today)
Dollar general is a wholesale chain in distribution matrix.
"The Baltic Dry Index staged a recovery mid-year, hopefully rising amid promises of stability in China and an 'escape' velocity USA."
Yeah, escape velocity... As in entering outerspace. The overlords with the printing presses and ZIRP have put these doomsday devices in outerspace. They reached "escape velocity" alright. MF'ers.
Oil has a lot to do with it and there's a vast oversupply of ships that have been comming into service this year.
The BDI used to be a good indicator but the oversupply part destroyed it.
The more imporant indicators now are the harbor container numbers and they're not that bad actually. At least in Europe.
So when posting these graph and claiming they're omnipotent isn't smart.
It's just fucking difficult to read good graphs these days as our economies are changing to fast.
ANTWERP IS ONE OF EUROPE's BIGGEST HARBORS:
http://www.portofantwerp.com/en/news/record-year-making-port-antwerp
RECORD YEAR!!! Think about that before commenting on this post with doomsday messages.
Europe's biggest harbor Rotterdam:
Due to an increase in economic activities in the port, revenue of thePort Authority rose by 3.1% in 2015. At the same time, profit fell by 4.9%.Their profits fell because they're in a price competition with Antwerp. But 3.1% more growth already.
You can argue "omnipotence" but those charts do look pretty shite.
As for Antwerp's 3.1% increase. If that's 3.1% from a shite number with -4.9% profit. That combination sounds like a race to the bottom. Not much to celebrate if you ask me.
Now look at the BDI chart again.
It's a record number.
And the BDI is the price setting for rental rates taking supply and demand with the costs into account.
Now take a look at the BDI chart again and think: What is this chart? What does it represent? How is it calculated.
Don't swallow everything they try to feed you. Whatever the source.
Because if you do, one day you'll be chewing somebody's dick.
Maybe the extra traffic is due to warranty returns
None of this matters anymore. Janet will give us negative interest rates, more QE and God Knows what else. The rich will get richer. If the masses get restless- more Kardashians, Dancing with the Retards, reality sex orgies and gladiator games -and War. Homelenad Security and the patriot Act will round up the malcontents - the rich have more to steal. Hopefully you have some cash to go along for the ride with them. If not -fuck you. If you are among the plebescites, the Goys, the non elites -screw you. Don't worry about those folks. It's all under control (at least for the near future) Let them eat cake!
I know for a fact that railroads are shuting down lines due to reduced demand...what's the "railroad dry index" called?
What you seek may be found here
https://www.aar.org/data-center/rail-traffic-data
Dont know it for China, but here is the US rail index site
https://www.aar.org/newsandevents/Press-Releases/Pages/2015-11-11-railtr...
For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 539,165 carloads and intermodal units, down 5.2 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending Nov. 7 were 272,063 carloads, down 8.7 percent compared with the same week in 2014, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 267,102 containers and trailers, down 1.5 percent compared to 2014.
What them smartypants sites don't tell you is that despite the drop in rail traffic none of it affects the trains that show up every day and manage to block my escape from work.
Maybe you should move on the otherside of the tracks. (jk)
Derailed profits.
This is expect with the increased rail tranpo4ts, especially those trains from china on that new rail line over the Pacific.
but they're just really replacing Buffet's trains that keep crashing, so net/net no change
Watch the Fed murder the stock markets and pension funds if they bump up rates.Panic sets in for Christmas courtesy of a group of moron bankers.Dot plots and Stochastic Equilibrium models.
Give Obama a break he’s doing his best keeping us busy trying to figure out all the new regulations, government acts and trade agreements otherwise we’d just be twiddling our thumbs because there’s no more sales since the stimulus ended. He’s so smart he’ll just do more stimulus and everything will be wonderful again.
Man, if they could only figurr out how to ship health insurance rates by container ship. Then everything would be great.
Commodity indexes near record lows in the modern finance age, and prices are still going up everywhere even with the dollar soaring.
Good point! Deflation is only for the Americans, al the rest pays extra.
Malinvestment 101: New strip malls now get occupied 10-15 years after being built. There’s now 20-25 customer service reps for every one doctor. Our neighborhood has 10 garbage companies to choose from all with a minimum rate they can charge. Garbage trucks drive down our streets all day 5 days a week. They circle the block 5 times to waste time and gas. It’s our new busy work economy!
yikes...I agree but what caught my attention from your post was the "sanitorial engineers" lol, trashmen, driving around all the time...And street sweepers? going like crazy. I have come to the conclusion that the banksters are paying well for VA admin workers, police, politicians, so that they buy a house and get stuck in the debt and will kill their own mother not to lose their new house and car...and to do whatever the government says, as long as they get their playcheck. The feds are printing money to find slaves, and slaves they are...I swear they would kill their own mother to keep their playcheck....keep your powder dry.
Bitchez, we are revisting the conditions of the late 1930s and the 1890s.
"Globalization II" is over. China is about to collapse and turn inward from the rest of the threatening world as they have every 50-60 years since the late 18th century, including the White Lotus Rebellion, Opium Wars, Boxer Rebellion, and the civil war and Mao's revolution.
The Jews/Zionists know this and will open the door for tens of millions of gazillionaire princeling Chinese to invade the country to enslave the 'Merkian peasants by bidding up unreal estate and land prices to the point that 80%+ of 'Merikans will be serfs to the Jewish/Zionist plantation managers and Chinese feudal lords.
Wherever you experience rents rising 4-7% to 10%+ a year and "health" care facilities being proposed, zoned, and built, grab your wallets and prepare to be rendered homeless in your own country (???), as the feudal Jews/Zionists have sold you/us out decades ago and are cashing in.
An Ancien Regime- and Russian Revolution-like revolutionary epoch is calling and emerging.
But the Jews/Zionists will be/are the fascists this time around. Don't be fooled by the propaganda. Jews are not "victims" but the colonial/imperial plantation managers and financiers.
https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/download/pdf/On%20The%20Jewish%20Question.pdf
Same as it ever was . . . (unless the 99.9% non-Jews "fix" it once and for all, i.e., "the final solution").
But be careful what you ask for and "fix".
So lemme get this straight: its only jews selling real estate to wealthy chinese?
You're a fucking moron.
Stop it you guys...this is a good thing. All those shipping containers can be turned into living quarters,...obama is cool because he is helping affordable housing for those without jobs. All we need is about 90 million shipping containers, and the homeless problem is fixed.....hope and CHANGE...BDI will go up bringing all the refugees here...BDI will go up as they send toyota trucks and weapons to ISIS...so relax, all is well...obama is jesus.
I absolutely appreciate the BDI.
It is one of the closest things to a lie detector test that we have to determine economic health.
Nice new pockets of prosperity in an old worn out suit full of economic holes.
Here in So. Cal (don't hate me for it dude), hotels are going up at a tremendous pace. They are being built because existing hotels that are frequented by business travellers are often at capacity, the nicer hotels that is.
Freeway traffic is horrendous from about 6am to 9am each morning and longer hours than that in the late afternoons and evenings.
Restaurants opening everywhere with more staying open than closing down.
Costco parking lots are full most of the time.
Most folks here in So. Cal don't seem to realize what is happening to the rest of the country and to the rest of the world.
Ignorance is bliss... Until it isn't...
when "economics" fails politics buries it all,
that is modern money,
no?
where are the people,
where do we fit in to this
paradigm?
Maybe they should offer takeout from Beijing to Jersey.
Here are some signs of a coming recession.
1. Business loans for M&A not CAPEX.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-15/there-goes-final-pillar-us-recovery-loan-growth-paradox-explained
2. Factory orders continue to drop
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-factory-orders-flash-recession-warning-drop-yoy-10th-month-row
3. Default risk spikes
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-financials-default-risk-spikes-2-year-high
4. M&A set record
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record/
5. Fed sees 2 bubbles
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/20/fed-warns-of-two-bubbles/
o Commercial Property higher than pre-2007 level.
http://nreionline.com/finance-investment/cre-prices-are-now-officially-above-pre-recession-peak
o Global Corporate Debt Market hits $5 trillion.
http://fn.dealogic.com/fn/DCMRank.htm
Here is how to prepare.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Here is how to get your mind off this stuff.
http://michaelekelley.com/category/humor/
Good luck!
We can at least retain the romantic concept of sailing the high seas. Other than that, it's like playing to an empty theater.
Hey I just tricked out 2 40ft conts one with satellite TV and stock of booze and pizza and the other with a water bed and condoms loaded them on a ship to China with me and gf inside.
World cruise for $240, can't be all bad