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Dennis Gartman No Longer Bearish; Is Shocked That Terrorism Is Bullish, Covers Shorts
Yesterday, just before the open, to help allay any confusion about what the market would do and how to trade it, we provided the perspective of the biggest fade in market history, Dennis Gartman, who was quite bearish.
Clearly we wish that we had had the presence of mind to have been aggressively net short of equities, but we did not, nor are we that lucky. We shall, however, look upon any intra-day rally in the market as a point at which to become modestly shorter of the market. That is, given the range thus far with the low in the S&P futures just below 2000 in early trading, and given that the futures are now 2015, this is sufficient to sell into to become slightly net shorter of the market. This shall be especially worthy of selling into given that the futures “gapped” lower of course and given that the “gap” has been closed on this modest rally from the lows.
As we further said, "we note this just in case the BOJ needed one more reason to buy a few yards of USDJPY and send the S&P right back up to 2100."
Sure enough, the BOJ, both directly and indirectly via Trust banks, proceeded to unleash an unprecednted rally in the USDJPY carry, dragging the E-mini 50 points higher from its overnight lows.
So where is Gartman now?
Well, just as yesterday was a warning to the bears, today we have a warning to the bulls because, you guessed it, Gartman just covered all is virtual money "shorts."
But first, here is Gartman's shocked amazement that in a rigged, centrally-planned market where every uptick is meant to inspire nothing more than confidence in a failing system, a terrorist event could lead to a market surge:
SHARE PRICES HAVE FLOWN HIGHER, MUCH TO OUR SURPRISE for we had no idea that when terrorists kill nearly 130 people in Paris and wound several hundred more, with more than 150 of those wounded in critical condition, that that is very bullish of stock prices, but apparently it is. Apparently terrorist attacks are supportive of stocks… apparently! We have been wrong in times past, and we have been wrong badly before, but we cannot recall every having been as wrong as we were yesterday for we were certain that terrorism is a bad thing for equity investment. We were certain that when cultures clash, as Islam and the West are clashing, stock prices should weaken. We were certain that terror is detrimental to business conditions. We were wrong. Apparently all of these things are marvelously supportive of stock prices. Apparently, terror is stimulative to the economy, and apparently any thoughts on the part of the monetary authorities in the reserve currency nation to raise the o/n base rate by the barest of minimums can now be pushed aside because terror trumps any and all other investment concerns.
That said, it is somewhat disheartening to see even Gartman lose faith in central-planning.
We learn new things every day. Hence, if we are bullish of equities apparently we need to ask for more terror to be wrought upon us; we need to see thousands of deaths, rather than mere hundreds, to push stock prices even higher. We are indeed in a brave new world. It is a world we are not particularly fond of, however, if this is the new reality.
It's all good Dennis; Just sit back and laugh - we do it every day.
Finally, for those looking to fade the next Gartman trade, here it is:
So what have we done in our retirement funds here? Initially as reported, having come into yesterday’s market slightly… very, very slightly… net short, we got a bit shorter very early in the session. However, by mid-morning we knew we were wrong. How did we know that? We knew that because that which we sold had moved a full percentage point against us, and the market is the final arbiter of positions. We were wrong. We were clearly and obviously wrong, and when wrong the only possible action to take is to get less wrong; to cover that which had been done and to retreat to the sidelines. We did precisely that, covering in the short positions we had had in the derivatives markets and buying a bit more of that which we had been long of… tanker stocks… to end the day net neutral, or as close to net neutral as we could get ourselves.
Do we believe this rally? No, we do not. We refuse to believe that “terror” is bullish. We refuse to believe that the deaths of 129 innocent people by madmen are materially supportive of stock prices. We refuse to accept the notion that the odds of a Fed tightening are reduced modestly and that that is massively supportive of stock valuations. We refuse to believe that common sense has been cast overboard entirely, and so neutral we are and neutral we shall be. We are wise enough not to stand astride of the market and scream aloud that the market is wrong and that we are right, and so we’ll not be short, but neither shall we accept the notion that what happened in Paris on Friday is equity bullish. Sometimes it is just best to hove to the sidelines and watch; we’ve hoved! We’re watching.
Don't forget laughing, Dennis. For everyone else, this is your inflection point.
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OK, and we're selling, we're selling, we're selling.... done. Thanks, Dennis. I'm knocking off early today.
Stocks didn't rally yesterday because of the terrorist attacks, in fact the rally was caused by Gartman turning bearish. Apparently Gartman hasn't woken up to the fact that algos worldwide have been rewritten to instantly scan his newsletter and fade every single one of his recommendations due to his 100% miss rate.
I wonder if Gartman can save Glencore...
I wonder if he can save Glen Close.
I thought that WAS Glen Close
WTF does "hove" mean? Is he making up words now to trick the algos?
How do we get him to bet the U.S. will definitely not end the Fed and return to a gold standard.
Classic problem, reaction, solution!
Encourage the terrorists in, facilitate their ability to kill innocent people, then use this as an excuse to further the agenda!
Liars, cowards and traitors one and all!
http://beforeitsnews.com/conspiracy-theories/2015/11/are-you-prepared-to...
Changes his mind more than i change my underwear.
Did you notice he's starting to sound a little pissed off? He reads these comments, I'm sure of it. We're getting to him.
Olga Korbut never flipped so much
that's some funny shit right there. what a maroon! [/bugs bunny]
What a gulli-bull!
It's gotten to the point where it isn't even funny any more. The fact that he is allowed anywhere near "money" is fucking ridiculous. He should have been laughed out of the system long ago.
I think he's perfect just the way he is. All you need to do is have one guy flip the charts upside down before Dennis gets them and you've got a lead-pipe-cinch winner.
What you two are not mentioning is that he's on CNBC. CNBC whose new slogan is "We are the Onion of financial "news"."
Imagine being his newsletter follower. As soon as your trade goes in... he is now betting against you.
BULLISH!!?! errr TIGER'S BLOOD!!?! errr WINNING!!?! errrrr positive hiv and bet-the-opposite with this clown
This is pure onion.com.
My apologies for stealing this I hadn't read it before posting above.
Here is a man that would be a great Veep candidate for Hillary. He will have no trouble flip flopping positions when Huma changes Hillary's positions.
They seem to like having clowns in the Veep slot don't they? I guess it's because they're non-threatening.
Does terror support stock, or do stocks support terror? I guess any net increase in US economy will mean more black budget money for terror/militarization. Disaster capitalism has hit a new low.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day (sorry) so does certain people tell the truth occassionally. Gartman is right to be appalled at just how manipulated markets have become. When the price of gold goes down in a war (long before Paris) manipulation is obviously rampant. In fact, I use the negative waterfalls as true indicators just how bad things have become. Sometimes The Dragon Wins. (That sucks!)
I think I am as confused as Gartman
Gartman tomorrow: Aggressively BEARISH!
How does this guy even afford carfare to the studio? Uber?
oh...
The 'we' shit drives me nuts. As close to neutral as we could get by the end of the day? Funny.. didn't realize it was so difficult to square a 100k 'retirement' portfolio. We needs more time.
Agreed.
Does Gartman have a team of market analysts? How are they paid? Surely not from their work.
Or is this a royal "we" meant to suggest his work is more than just his opinion du jour?
Need any more confirmation that Hollande did this intentionally to establish chaos and martial law in an attempt to keep himself and the cabal in power???
The people are pissed at him; Martial law is the only way he and Obama stay in power and that is a definite possibility. Nothing like Russian-style humiliation to get the US propaganda in high gear.
Nothing like bombing the desolate desert to kill the bogeymen. Where are the environmental whackos when you need them; a desert ant is endangered by the bombs.
What channel is this fella on, I might watch him one day. As long he's not on the Tele with Obozo the clown.
Dumbass Fartman looks like he hasn't taken a cleansing dump in years....waiting for the shitbomb to explode. Let's hope it's on the cnbc set with that cunt Kernan, the stink fingered Becky Qcunt, and that perv Steve Liesman...so they get shit splattered.
MUST WATCH TEE VEE!
I am starting to agree with Gartman. About what, I have no idea.
Hold on, he was already on the sidelines. Twat.
Dennis Gartman now running in circles so quickly he is likely to crash into his own asshole.
Which one? This 'market' has torn him countless new ones!!!
LMHO..thanks to both of you.
FUNDERRRRPMENTALS
Gartman - Oh no!! The curse on the market and I just switched over to the long side; now I have to exit. Someone fire the rat.
he figures "if cramer can get away with it for fifteen years, why cant I?" he gets paid to bs on cnbc.
I just relieved myself of a rather stinky Gartman... I'm pleasantly short peanuts and corn.
I did some background checking on the Gartman family tree and found out he's blood-related to Howdy Doody, Inspector Clouseau, Titanic Captain Edward Smith, Exxon-Valdez Captain Joe Hazelwood, Edsel Ford, the architect of the Tower of Pisa, and the guy who invented the "New Coke."
Now, I understand.
While Gartman is nothing but a monday morning quarterback, he is correct in not playing this stupid game and disavowing the terroism is good meme.
please stop talking about a complete idiot
This guys picture is in the dictionary under the definition of whipsawed.
The only fundamental that matters in a rigged market, is that the market is fundamentally rigged. A moon sized asteroid could be coming our way with 99.9%% chance of impact, and the rigged market would still rise. Past, present or future returns have no correlation with any semblance of reality