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Homebuilder Sentiment Drops For First Time In 6 Months
Despite plunges in new and pending home sales (current) and lumber prices (forward-looking), Homebuilder Sentiment surged in October to its highest in over 10 years. November appears to be ushering in some sense of reality check. Having revised up October to 65 (from 64), November saw sentiment drop to 62 - the first drop since May. The Southern and Midwest regions saw overall drops in sentiment as The West rose to new cycle highs. Both current and future sales expectations dropped notably but - despite all the blather about weather - prospective buyer traffic rose to its highest since October 2005!
What happens next? Well take a look at 2013 - when hope failed.
Charts: Bloomberg
Charts: Bloomberg
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What's next? Reality continues to be suspended until it's time for the sheep to be shorn.
There will be a shortage of Chinese money...soon.....
ctrl p will fix all of that negative nonsense...forward bitches
Being hit with price increases across the board in January, .Gov enviro Nazi's crawling all over the place demanding new types of permit fees so yea, it's all great now.
Just you try to touch a wetland buffer....
You'll have to deal with the Conservation commission, the State Environmental Nazi's, the Federal EPA, the Federal Army Corps and probably other agencies as well. Oh, and they make the rules, and are appointed their positions. you can't vote them out or challenge them in any way. It costs more to permit something than to actually build it. That's called LOSING. The Fascists have overtaken the government.
" No one saw this coming. "
Luckily, " house prices never drop. "
Sentiment charts always lag reality....Human nature is to be 'hopeful', and it takes a while for the average person to have harsh reality sink in....especially with something as nebulous (at least to most Americans) as the "economy". Add to this the fact that many of today's homebuilders have never seen prolonged downturn....and thus tend not to believe one is possible.
Prospective buyer traffic at 2005 highs? That sounds specious. If true that means that prospective buyers are back to Housing Bubble 1.0 levels in an economy that is exponentially WORSE than in 2005.
This is going to end so badly...
Don't worry the markets are so short the 10year UST that when the Fed catches everyone with their undies around their ankles next month, everyone will be running to do a refi, or lever themselves deeper into Freedum.
<sarc/>
Since when did "sentiment" matter?
They must be bipolar. They flip flop daily.